EPTMight be working though
Persona 4 Mini Mafia - Page 12
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
Might be working though | ||
|
Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
On August 30 2013 03:26 Koshi wrote: Yeah that's the only reason why I don't think you are scum. Quick explanation for why? | ||
|
Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
 | ||
|
Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
PLEASE if I somehow get NK'd (unlikely I'd guess) seriously analyze the voting on that lynch, all the way from the beginning. | ||
|
Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
I'm pretty sure the game is very nearly solved from the lynch voting. Although I suppose in the hypothetical situation where me and yamato are both scum and we are too lazy to seriously start another option whatsoever because why would scum bother... Ah never mind. We can work through it post-NK. | ||
|
Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
Busses occur but that one would surprise me from a largely inactive/useless yamato. Anyways, I promised vote analysis so that will show up fairly soonish. There is a lot of thread to re-skim to get a feel for exactly how the votes went down (and a lot of cohost filters to peruse for votecounts). | ||
|
Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
I was gonna analyze the Onegu mislynch but that was led by Koshi/Fuba/Rainbows. I'd be willing to call rainbows scum for it but mostly was koshi/fuba and they are the closest we have to confirmed town so... The Yamato lynch! + Show Spoiler [ First Relevant VC] + On August 28 2013 18:32 Sylencia wrote: Vote Count yamato77: (2) kushm4sta, Koshi Koshi: (1) FirmTofu FirmTofu: (1) Sn0_Man Sn0_Man: (1) VayneAuthority No Vote: yamato77, Rainbows, johnnywup, mkfuba07 Currently, yamato77 is set to be lynched. Next deadline: Deadline date: Thursday, Aug 29 11:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) + Show Spoiler + haha nice ninja Kush, "Asketh and thou shalt receiveth, and this swiftly" Lol at Yamato not vote and yet snowman- sorry about that Kush and Koshi get it going. This confirms them as town (so does kush's death) since they don't move off. Scum don't really have a counter-wagon going yet. + Show Spoiler [The next relevant VC] + On August 29 2013 13:06 Alakaslam wrote: Vote Count yamato77: (2) kushm4sta, Koshi Koshi: (1) FirmTofu FirmTofu: (1) Sn0_Man Sn0_Man: (4) VayneAuthority, johnnywup: (0) No Vote: Rainbows, johnnywup Currently, Sn0_Man is set to be lynched. Next deadline: Deadline date: Thursday, Aug 29 11:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) Scum have established their counter-wagon. Essentially, upon seeing confirmed town hop on an option (fuba voting me) they all hopped on board. Note that rainbows and johnny don't get a free ride here since they appeared AFK rather than unsure who to vote for. And obviously its not all scum on me. Note also that IF I AM SCUM then this wagon makes no sense. Scum could easily make another lynch option work. As in, Tofu/Johnny/Me/Yam were ALL lynchable so even if 3 of us are scum we can just all pile on the other and likely secure his lynch at this point. The fact that I am the primary wagon here speaks in my favour I think. The 3 posts immediately after this are Kush (confirmed town), Fuba (confirmed town) and I all realizing that this wagon is pure bullshit. Kush is already on yam, me and fuba both instantly unvote and nail yam. Again, note that when fuba moves off of me the vote is 3-3 me-yam. Scum can still very easily create another wagon if both Yam and I are scum. Instead I vote yam, putting him ahead and he never comes back. At this point, it isn't entirely unbelievable that the entire scumteam is on me (although I'm far from certain of it). Immediately thereafter; + Show Spoiler + On August 29 2013 13:56 VayneAuthority wrote: ##unvote vote:yamato77 not worth keeping around if this game ever goes to lylo Vayne jumps on yam with essentially no justification other than bandwagoning and On August 29 2013 15:49 johnnywup wrote: 1=sn0 2=FT 3=yamato http://i.imgur.com/NvRsDWA.png random.org has spoken ##vote yamato so does johnny, once again with no real justification. Rolling a 3 on random.org is clearly not a reason whatsoever as there are so many ways to make it say whatever he wants it to say. (note that while some time has passed from 2nd VoteCount to here it is all on one page of the game, so its not like I'm chopping out important bits). So we arrive at essentially the end votecount: + Show Spoiler + On August 29 2013 17:06 Sylencia wrote: Vote Count yamato77: (6) kushm4sta, Koshi, mkfuba07, Sn0_Man, VayneAuthority, johnnywup Sn0_Man: (2) Yamato77, FirmTofu No Vote: Rainbows Currently, yamato77 is set to be lynched. Next deadline: Deadline date: Thursday, Aug 29 11:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) Yamato is clearly hammered and while he doesn't need to move from now on its fairly clear that any vote movement could as easily be scum trying to look good as anything else. The only vote change that occurs is rainbows tossing his vote on yam while saying "taking 0 credit for this". Then yamato dies. MY conclusions (please draw your own as well): 1) I'm not scum. If I were scum both me and yamato were clearly around and could have driven some sort of wagon on a townie, at least for a while. The utter lack of ANY real momentum on anybody not me or yamato is very very telling. 2) Koshi is simply town. I really don't think I can doubt this any more whatsoever. Those are pretty much my hard conclusions lol. I'd expected to be able to figure out more when combining the 2 lynches but it didn't pan out too much. I will say that I think this looks bad for johnny solely because if he was town I think that scum would happily have joined fuba in pushing him very hard and I think they could have secured his lynch. And TBH I probably would have gone along with a johnny lynch over a yamato lynch yesterday so... I feel like that bit is fairly important. I don't really know what to make of tofu's vote on me staying to the end  . I guess its brownie points for him because I'd probably be tearing him a new one right now if he had switched at the last minute. | ||
|
Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
| ||
|
Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
| ||
|
Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
On August 31 2013 01:45 Rainbows wrote: Rule #26 of mafia: At least 1 scum is always on the town-lynch wagon to ensure it goes through. Koshi and Johnny are the only two non-confirms on the list that voted WoS. Both also voted Onegu, and Vayne is pretty town. So we're lynching Johnny, right? Nothing redeeming about him, eh. A) Your rule is garbage since it doesn't make sense for mafia to do that B) You aren't confirmed either  | ||
|
Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
| ||
|
Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
So, Who is alive? VayneAuthority geript johnnywup Sn0_Man - Confirmed town mkfuba07 - Confirmed town FirmTofu Rainbows Koshi - Confirmed town 2 scum left most likely. so 2 of Tofu/Rainbows/Vayne/Johnny. We have 1 "OK" mislynch before its lylo. If we can get proof of town from any of those 4 we win the game. I'd love to hear more input guys. @rainbows: I think I can work with that. Really I need to start re-investigating all 4 I've mentioned and see if I can come up with something concrete on anybody. It gets hard when people just AFK. | ||
|
Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
On August 31 2013 02:00 Rainbows wrote: We only have one confirmed sn0, and that's Fuba. I'm paranoid about Koshi but he's probably town with this bad setup. You aren't confirmed, but i'd rather lynch FT / johnny over you. We are approaching lylo (though not QUITE there yet). Which means that Town reads are almost as important as scum reads. Which means I'm not accepting this. If you wish to dispute my confirmed towniness, you *must* come up with a reason for how yesterday's voting went down that includes me being scum because we NEED every confirmed town we can get. It is quite simple: when there are 2 serious wagons and 1 is on scum, THE OTHER IS TOWN. I am fully into solve the game mode. I don't care if you don't like some of my posts or whatever. We are at the point where the game is solvable for town and dipshitting around isn't helping. Proving yourself town would go a long way towards winning the game btw so you can start there. | ||
|
Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
B) FT's old scumreads are me and koshi which is pretty rich. I'm with you though I'd love to hear what he thinks now lol. | ||
|
Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
On August 31 2013 02:24 Koshi wrote: See I like what you are saying, but when you are scum with johnny/yamato I doubt that you 3 can start a town wagon while there is Kush/koshi on yamato and VA/FT on sn0. If you read the VC's in my long post, the development between the first votecount where yam is at 2 and everybody else is at 1 to the 2nd one where I'm the primary lynch candidate with 4 votes includes yamato SELECTING ME AS HIS MISLYNCH OF CHOICE over an easy option like tofu (who in your scenario is town) who he had been calling bad for a while or koshi who already had a (in your scenario) town vote on him and would thus have been pushable to 4 votes almost instantly. There is just no way. As I said, scum jumped on the chance to sheep confirmed town (fuba) and vote for me, since they are happy to vote for a townie. | ||
|
Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
Otherwise koshi you have it about right FT/VA/Johnny are the rest. It sounds like johnny is the one to go but I'm not sure how much I trust Vayne/Rainbows to tell me that. The fact that scum didn't transfer onto him last vote is really bothering me about him though, makes me more and more interested in lynching him. He's also taken the mega-lurk road which isn't uncommon for newer scum as the game progresses and more actual info and reads show up (aka its harder to bullshit because town have some absolutes to work off of). | ||
|
Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
Thoughts anybody? Rainbows is still the wildcard for me. | ||
|
Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
On August 31 2013 02:40 VayneAuthority wrote: I would never leave fuba alive twice in a row as a confirmed town. Neither rayn nor kush was actually confirmed, I'm not a terrible scum player. DAT WIFOM holy shit thats the WIFOMiest WIFOM in history. | ||
|
Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
| ||
|
Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
I mean, that was the strat LAST time (admittedly it didn't work) but it makes some amount of sense, and its more foolproof if (and this is a big if) fuba is only on townies now so he can't mess it up like last time for them. It makes as much sense as anything else. Your role in it is still WIFOM unless you think that this would prove a rainbows/FT scum team. Which it would if it wasn't WIFOM obviously. | ||
| ||
