|
On July 09 2013 22:04 jampidampi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2013 22:00 Ace wrote:On July 09 2013 21:58 jampidampi wrote:On July 09 2013 21:48 Ace wrote:On July 09 2013 21:38 jampidampi wrote:On July 09 2013 21:29 Ace wrote:On July 09 2013 21:25 Xatalos wrote:On July 09 2013 21:19 Ace wrote:
How is it wrong? Be objective here.
There was a concerted effort to turn around the DI lynch. austincc posts a case on ON. Immediately a band wagon forms. DI defends himself and disappears from the thread. ON defends himself, role claims, and still gets lynched. There are no votes moving off of ON at this time. He flips Town.
MZ figures that rayne must be lying after rayne claims to have nuked him. This is where the doubt on rayne comes from.
I show up and I'm already looking at how the lynch played out. I already note how its going down. I get to MZ's post about rayne, who was instrumental to turning around the DI lynch.
Why would I call out anyone else but rayne? Logically, think about this. I think you seriously are lost because if you can't tell what my opinion on rayne is right now this is pointless. So you believe rayn is lying about his "big play"? Do you mean he's scum and launched the nuke after all? If you believe him on that point (which seems a pretty obvious thing to do IMO), you have no other decent reason to continue. He was just one of many who helped changing the lynch around, and unless DI flips red, it doesn't even prove anything at all. Yes. I believe rayne is scum not only for nuking MZ, but the DI lynch. I'm taking them both together. When geript asked me earlier about why I didn't include him as a suspect this was the same reasoning. Don't think I'm ignoring the entire wagon, I'm just only speaking on rayne right now because it makes no sense to put suspicion on everyone. It won't accomplish anything right now. Can you then point out what makes you think Rayn nuked? I wrote a big post explaining why I think Rayn didn't nuke, what makes my analysis wrong? I think he nuked because I dont think he is dumb enough to nuke MZ just like that as Town. MZ was the one who called him out for lying and I don't think he expected that to happen. All of a sudden it is some big plan he had all along? regarding your post, I don't think he would have launched a nuke at Xata. He had no good reason for doing so. The first person he really went hard on was Chezinu, which would have made the most sense to nuke. Not sending a nuke at the guy he is calling for to be nuked makes no sense here. If he is fake claiming the nuke on MZ it does not add up. It still does not explain why he would just not have nuked Chezinu, and why he would even own up to that nuke in the first place. We don't know who the nuke came from and once MZ caught him in a lie he was stuck. The first point is that if he had a nuke, that post would have lauched it. Forget about reasonings, look at Chez and johnny lauching their nukes. They type ##Nuke: [insert target here] and the nuke is lauched. If Rayn had a nuke, why wouldn't his post have lauched the nuke? Did you even read my post and think about it? If Rayn had a fucking nuke it would have been launched at Xata early D1! That is why couldn't have a nuke at Meapak! Why would you assume his nuke has to be activated that way? why couldn't it be a PM only nuke? Why do you go from thinking that Ray lauhced a nuke to thinking he didn't in the same post?
??? Where did I do that? The last quote doesn't mean rayne did not launch the nuke, only that he could have pm'd it.
|
On July 09 2013 22:10 jampidampi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2013 22:06 Ace wrote:
@jampidampi: Ok I'm going to go with your assumption.
Here's my new thought process.
Rayne does not have nukes. Period. His fake ##nuke Xalatos confirms this.
stuff happens, rayne claims he launched the nuke on MZ. If rayne is Town why would he claim this?
Rayne must assume that the nuke came from Scum. Hence his read on MZ being Town. MZ later flips out when he notices this contradiction.
rayne says he was setting up a gambit to catch scum here.
If this is the way you see it, then I must ask - how would he know the nuke came from scum? He has a post reasoning why the nuke is from scum: Show nested quote +On July 07 2013 19:50 raynpelikoneet wrote:On July 07 2013 18:31 geript wrote:
@rayn... was that you? No it was not me. I think town should claim all their nukes so that we can tell for sure if there is an unclaimed nuke that's from scum. I don't see any downside doing so. Either way if this nuke to MZ is from town, please claim it whoever shot it. If nobody claims it probably means MZ is town, i was wrong, and mafia is trying to frame me.
Town is not going to willy nilly claim nukes on the first day. If we all claimed we could nuke how would that tell us who nuked MZ? We can't verify anything that quickly in the game and Scum may also have nukes. That explanation is not a strong argument at all.
Also we have to be aware of a fallacy here. If MZ is Town and he was nuked, and no one claims we are assuming it came from Scum. It could come from a townie who did not want to fess up. It could have come from 3rd party who isn't claiming shit. We are assuming that not claiming = Scum motivation. rayne claims it at the end of the day, and thus should be considered Town for fessing up to a legit nuke that he came up with an explanation for ahead of time. If not, he was just setting up a gambit to catch scum. That is extremely convenient wouldn't you say so?
On July 09 2013 22:11 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2013 21:55 Ace wrote:On July 09 2013 21:43 Xatalos wrote:On July 09 2013 21:29 Ace wrote:On July 09 2013 21:25 Xatalos wrote:On July 09 2013 21:19 Ace wrote:
How is it wrong? Be objective here.
There was a concerted effort to turn around the DI lynch. austincc posts a case on ON. Immediately a band wagon forms. DI defends himself and disappears from the thread. ON defends himself, role claims, and still gets lynched. There are no votes moving off of ON at this time. He flips Town.
MZ figures that rayne must be lying after rayne claims to have nuked him. This is where the doubt on rayne comes from.
I show up and I'm already looking at how the lynch played out. I already note how its going down. I get to MZ's post about rayne, who was instrumental to turning around the DI lynch.
Why would I call out anyone else but rayne? Logically, think about this. I think you seriously are lost because if you can't tell what my opinion on rayne is right now this is pointless. So you believe rayn is lying about his "big play"? Do you mean he's scum and launched the nuke after all? If you believe him on that point (which seems a pretty obvious thing to do IMO), you have no other decent reason to continue. He was just one of many who helped changing the lynch around, and unless DI flips red, it doesn't even prove anything at all. Yes. I believe rayne is scum not only for nuking MZ, but the DI lynch. I'm taking them both together. When geript asked me earlier about why I didn't include him as a suspect this was the same reasoning. Don't think I'm ignoring the entire wagon, I'm just only speaking on rayne right now because it makes no sense to put suspicion on everyone. It won't accomplish anything right now. Explain why: 1) scum rayn would stealth nuke Meapak (instead of his eternal enemy Chezinu), base his townread on Meapak (at least partly) on his own lie, then be happy to redirect the nuke to NG 2) reveal all this quite a bit later with absolutely zero reason to do that and put himself under pressure 3) gather reactions without caring for his own safety and then reveal this plan No matter how I look at it, I see no reason for scum rayn to do all this. 1.) why wouldn't he stealth nuke someone that is probably Town? durr? If he and Chezinu are scum buddies together then doesn't it make sense for him not to nuke him? If rayne's nukes can only be activated by stealth then this is moot as he would never even do so. If you honestly believe rayne has the capability to nuke another player and is Town - then why not nuke Chezinu? 2.) I don't think he actually thought it through well enough or he really believed he could get away with it. Again, MZ was the one who called him out on this. Unless you have a problem with MZ's post, then I don't see why you are over thinking this. Notice that even after he claimed he wasn't under any pressure. So he could very well have been correct in thinking he was safe on it. 3.) I don't understand where this is going. If you are assuming that only Town players will act bold you are acting under a false premise. Here's my thing: Why is the DI/ON lynch not a major deal to you? That was a last minute wagon flip that resulted in a townie lynch. The guy who was going to be lynched got away with a scant post in his defense and disappeared. ON put up a defense and votes weren't moved off of him. You don't see a problem here? I agree with geript's reasoning that the DI wagon went too smoothly without disagreement (only geript opposed it until austinmcc finally made his case, and DI had like 10+ votes at that point?). That means DI is probably town. If that is true, then there's literally zero reason for scum rayn to change the lynch from town to town. Even if DI were scum, you have zero reason to pursue rayn until 1) DI has flipped red and 2) you explain why rayn is more scummy for that than me or austin who were more strongly pursuing ON. It's just senseless all around. 1) I do not believe rayn has the capacity to launch a nuke. In that case, he would have surely launched it at Chezinu regardless of his alignnment (even as scum it would be stupid to launch at someone else and then claim a bit later). 2) Scum do not act rashly or carelessly, they are careful and serious. This is everything but careful and very risky for little if any gain (as scum). See the point?3) See above.
Ok I'm going to put myself in your shoes. I definitely believe that sometimes if a wagon is going too smoothly unopposed, it may be a Town lynch. So there were definitely legit pro-town motives for stopping the wagon. However, there also exists scum motives for stopping it if DI is Scum. Of course we do not know what his alignment is so both happen to coincide. Here is my disagreement with "Di is probably Town": He told us he would be lurking at the start of the game and peaced out. Right before his lynch, he shows up to defend himself, people are easily convinced and we end up lynching ON. My problem here is that ON also posted a credible defense, but votes still piled on to him. Look at the voting lists for DI vs ON. Lots of those people never even voted for DI. If DI is Scum and his buddies held off long enough then when they appear to vote ON they don't look bad for not vote switching on to an innocent lynch. They just happened to be convinced by austin's case and voted.
Now back to this: if you believe that rayne is scum and DI is town then why wouldn't he help change the vote? If that is thread sentiment he still appears to be Town. If neither of his scum buddies are up for vote then why does it matter? I think you have this notion that all scum play the same way and that assumption is making you think rayne must be Town. For the last time, since I've answered this so much: I pursued rayne because of MZ's post. I'm not going to throw suspicion on several people, especially at night. That accomplishes nothing. Also stop assuming I don't have suspicions anywhere else.
1.) If you do not believe rayne has the capacity to launch nukes then what do you think of MZ's post? You must be believing rayne had this gambit setup well ahead of time then correct? If he is Scum and Chez is scum then he isn't going to launch no matter what. He could have easily felt no one would go back and read early day 1. No one except MZ went back to do so. He is rightly justified in making that play then.
2.) That is a false assumption. I don't think you can even get half the forum to agree with you on that. You are flat out wrong.
|
On July 09 2013 22:15 Oatsmaster wrote:
Because once he claimed, and there was no counterclaim, then obviously it came from scum. Ace how are you not seeing this??
If rayne is scum and the nuke was launched from his team, then the nuke came from Scum. It still does not make rayne Town.
On July 09 2013 22:19 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2013 21:38 Ace wrote:On July 09 2013 21:35 raynpelikoneet wrote:
rofl Ace. So as scum i claimed a nuke i did not need to claim when i'm under zero pressure. I also swung the lynch fron DI to ON. Makes no sense from town point of view considering that i have called DI town and ON scum the whole game. Of course it does not make sense, town!rayn could have done nothing but to lynch Dandel, his town read, obviously. Also it was certainly rayn who swung the lynch, actually rayn is posting via Austin about all this stuff why ON is scum, right? So what if you're under 0 pressure? We've seen scum make plays without pressure multiple times. That isn't a legit excuse. MZ was the one who went back and caught you in a lie. You somehow knew MZ was going to catch you ahead of time and set this all up with a fakeclaim of the nuke, to then say it was a gamble all this time? right. What was the lie MZ caught me in?
You claimed to nuke MZ out of revenge. MZ fake nuked you here:
On July 07 2013 07:13 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:Show nested quote +On July 07 2013 07:11 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Yo, can anyone see why geript is scum?
Discussing stuff with Xata is useless, he is dead. ##Nuke: raynpelikoneet There so are you.
The nuke launched at MZ appears here:
On July 07 2013 18:28 Artanis[Xp] wrote:NUCLEAR LAUNCH DETECTED ![[image loading]](http://strikefighterconsultinginc.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/url13.jpg) A nuke has been spotted heading towards Meapak_Ziphh.
You were around and the nuke goes off 11 hours later. You couldn't have been nuking him in revenge.
On July 09 2013 22:22 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2013 22:06 Ace wrote:
@jampidampi: Ok I'm going to go with your assumption.
Here's my new thought process.
Rayne does not have nukes. Period. His fake ##nuke Xalatos confirms this.
stuff happens, rayne claims he launched the nuke on MZ. If rayne is Town why would he claim this?
Rayne must assume that the nuke came from Scum. Hence his read on MZ being Town. MZ later flips out when he notices this contradiction.
rayne says he was setting up a gambit to catch scum here.
If this is the way you see it, then I must ask - how would he know the nuke came from scum? You can't possibly be this stupid. If the nuke was from a townie they would have CC'd me. That was another reason fopr fakeclaiming the nuke. It's sure from scum now.
Why would a townie cc you on a nuke heading to MZ?? If they didn't fess up the first time you asked, then why would you think that would happen? If scum launched the nuke they can also CC you and still appear to be Town. That is the only requirement right? Your fallacy is exposed here. That's just nonsense.
Even if we take it that the nuke came from scum, that does not mean YOU are not scum.
|
w/e, stick your opinion Xatalos. There's nothing left for us to talk about.
|
Dandel. I'm not sure about my other scum reads yet, and I'd rather take care off this business first.
|
On July 09 2013 23:04 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2013 22:47 Ace wrote:On July 09 2013 22:15 Oatsmaster wrote:
Because once he claimed, and there was no counterclaim, then obviously it came from scum. Ace how are you not seeing this??
If rayne is scum and the nuke was launched from his team, then the nuke came from Scum. It still does not make rayne Town. On July 09 2013 22:19 raynpelikoneet wrote:On July 09 2013 21:38 Ace wrote:On July 09 2013 21:35 raynpelikoneet wrote:
rofl Ace. So as scum i claimed a nuke i did not need to claim when i'm under zero pressure. I also swung the lynch fron DI to ON. Makes no sense from town point of view considering that i have called DI town and ON scum the whole game. Of course it does not make sense, town!rayn could have done nothing but to lynch Dandel, his town read, obviously. Also it was certainly rayn who swung the lynch, actually rayn is posting via Austin about all this stuff why ON is scum, right? So what if you're under 0 pressure? We've seen scum make plays without pressure multiple times. That isn't a legit excuse. MZ was the one who went back and caught you in a lie. You somehow knew MZ was going to catch you ahead of time and set this all up with a fakeclaim of the nuke, to then say it was a gamble all this time? right. What was the lie MZ caught me in? You claimed to nuke MZ out of revenge. MZ fake nuked you here: On July 07 2013 07:13 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On July 07 2013 07:11 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Yo, can anyone see why geript is scum?
Discussing stuff with Xata is useless, he is dead. ##Nuke: raynpelikoneet There so are you. The nuke launched at MZ appears here: On July 07 2013 18:28 Artanis[Xp] wrote:NUCLEAR LAUNCH DETECTED A nuke has been spotted heading towards Meapak_Ziphh. You were around and the nuke goes off 11 hours later. You couldn't have been nuking him in revenge. On July 09 2013 22:22 raynpelikoneet wrote:On July 09 2013 22:06 Ace wrote:
@jampidampi: Ok I'm going to go with your assumption.
Here's my new thought process.
Rayne does not have nukes. Period. His fake ##nuke Xalatos confirms this.
stuff happens, rayne claims he launched the nuke on MZ. If rayne is Town why would he claim this?
Rayne must assume that the nuke came from Scum. Hence his read on MZ being Town. MZ later flips out when he notices this contradiction.
rayne says he was setting up a gambit to catch scum here.
If this is the way you see it, then I must ask - how would he know the nuke came from scum? You can't possibly be this stupid. If the nuke was from a townie they would have CC'd me. That was another reason fopr fakeclaiming the nuke. It's sure from scum now. Why would a townie cc you on a nuke heading to MZ?? If they didn't fess up the first time you asked, then why would you think that would happen? If scum launched the nuke they can also CC you and still appear to be Town. That is the only requirement right? Your fallacy is exposed here. That's just nonsense. Even if we take it that the nuke came from scum, that does not mean YOU are not scum. So your thought process is that i made a backup plan for a plan that i did not have to pull off in the first place. How does that make sense? Like, if i had not claimed to fire that nuke there is no lie. When i claimed i created a lie, and then i made a back up plan for the lie i purposely and unnecessarily created myself as mafia. Do you see how scummy you sound. You messed up because you couldn't react accorignly to a situation where a townie claimed a nuke your team fired, and you are scum. I will explain this more in detail tonight. Now i gotta head back to work.
Rayne, this is so simple it actually hurts.
If you are Town, your plan is to claim it hours later even though you got caught lying. Ok.
If someone counter claims you on the nuke - how would you be able to tell they are Town or Scum? You couldn't. You're hanging on to the idea that the nuke MUST have come from the scum team, which does not absolve you of blame. You are 100% sure of this information even though it does not help your claim at all.
Also, assume I am Scum. You are town. My team fires a nuke. You claim the nuke. Why the hell would I care? If MZ is Town, and you are Town then why would I not just let MZ go at it with you? You are making more logical fallacies.
|
I am using Occam's razor here. If rayne was Town and he fake claimed the nuke, how would he know the nuke was fired by Scum? If not being counter claimed = the nuke is from scum, then it doesn't explain how a counter-claim = the nuke was from Town. Scum could easily just CC here also if that will get them Town cred. rayne would not have known the difference.
|
So instead of just letting you and MZ go at it, I appear to care to get Town cred. Sure.
If i had not claimed to fire that nuke there is no lie. When i claimed i created a lie, and then i made a back up plan for the lie i purposely and unnecessarily created myself as mafia.
Explain, why am i scum based on the lie?
You keep repeating this as if it explains everything. You did lie. And that the discussion after that lie led to you getting exposed. Again, you're entire defense rests on the fact that the nuke must have been from Scum. The only reason is because no one counter claimed you. Again, I keep repeating this - if anyone CCs you, you have no idea if they are Town or Scum. You are using the fact that no one claimed the nuke on MZ for over 24 hours as proof that your claim with no cc = scum nuke. If someone claimed the nuke how would your plan hold up? It couldn't. There is no way you thought as Town you thought this through.
|
On July 09 2013 23:24 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2013 23:19 Ace wrote:
I am using Occam's razor here. If rayne was Town and he fake claimed the nuke, how would he know the nuke was fired by Scum? If not being counter claimed = the nuke is from scum, then it doesn't explain how a counter-claim = the nuke was from Town. Scum could easily just CC here also if that will get them Town cred. rayne would not have known the difference. The fact that nobody claimed the nuke in the first place (when it was shot) means it's probably from mafia. Townies need to claim when they fire a nuke (barring some very special circumstances). There is no downside (if you are town) to let the thread know the nuke is coming from you, scum already know that the nuke is coming from a townie. That's why the nuke on MZ was from mafia. Now, if someone had cc'd me, that would have been at best an 1-1 trade for mafia. I get lynched, "geez, rayn had no nuke at all, he was telling the truth, this other guy is scum" because of what i said earlier.
PROBABLY. Not definitively. You are assuming it is. There is a major difference there. Also why would Town claim the nuke on MZ? You haven't been able to explain this at all. There is no precedent in this thread that establishes Townies mus claim a nuke that may have been fired in secret. Not one. That is a false assumption. Townies also know they may get nuked themselves or lynched for nuking people. That is the obvious downside to claiming the nuke. Even extrapolating this thought process one step further, even the dumbest scum would realize your theory and also claim then right? You wouldn't be able to tell the difference. As an aside this same thing happened in World At War Mafia. A secret nuke was launched. Turned out the guy(Xelin?) who did it was Town. He didn't even claim till way later.
This is also wrong. Which is why I said you can't know where the nuke came from if you are Town. If the nuke comes from Town and you are also Town you'd realize that results in 2 town deaths. You're entire plan rests on the fact that no one counter claimed. You could not know that the nuke had to come from Scum if you are Town due to the possibility of a Town CC.
That leaves 2 things: You fired the nuke for real at MZ, or you are Scum and know where the nuke came from.
Now, if you are saying you didn't nuke MZ and you aren't scum - your entire plan relies on you not being counter claimed. If you are Town how could you take that risk and not see the crazy downfall?
|
Xalatos this is my last response to you on the subject: If you are saying that the nuke came from Scum, if rayne is Scum how does this scenario play out any differently?
|
Get your vote off of me Xata. I was wrong about rayne being scum, but still right that his reasoning was flawed. His role confirms that he was lying about the nuke. But we're passed that now.
First order of business is Dandel. Above all else we're getting rid of him today.
##vote Dandel Ion
|
I'm around for a bit as I'm taking a break from a brutal day. Any questions for me shoot.
|
On July 10 2013 11:17 Alakaslam wrote:
Oh and your take on tofu's jampidampi case?
It looks solid. I had my own slight scum read on jamp because when I was arguing with rayne and he jumped in I don't know how he couldn't understand what I was saying. I tried to make myself clear multiple times but he along with some others just weren't listening to logic and assumed rayne had to be Town. Multiple people had reservations about "the plan" but a few bought it with little hesitation.
Now Tofu is saying I'm scum too so that means I was arguing with my scum buddy and neither of us came out with any advantages. But we'll see what he's got.
|
Well I'm going to just post a summary of what I had written down. Browser tab crashed so here's the short version:
ON wagon:
austinmcc, Chezinu, raynpelikoneet, Dandel Ion, Xatalos, FirmTofu,
Alakaslam, geript, ghost_403, Chezinu, geript, TanGeng, gumshoe, johnnywup, Onegu
DI wagon:
Dandel Ion (8): johnnywup, WaveofShadow, OriginalName, Ace, VayneAuthority,
strongandbig, Meapak_Ziphh, Alakaslam, Stutters695, Nirvana.Gabo
Nirvana is killed by a redirected nuke from WoS. If Dandel/Xig are scum, then WoS would have been bussing
his own scum buddy early, and never changing his vote to a Townie lynch. WoS is most likely Town.
The last set of voters to push the ON wagon include Chezinu, geript, [green]Tangeng]/green], gumshoe, johnnywup, and Onegu.
Chezinu has several votes elsewhere, so for now he is inconclusive. johnnywup had 1 vote parked on WoS, and only voted for ON later. geript only voted for Alakslam outside of ON, he unvoted once then voted again for him. gumshoe appears at the end of both a Chezinu wagon and ON wagon. Onegu appears early on the Chezinu wagon and votes for ON towards the end.
@Firm and Alakaslam: why did you take your vote off of ON and not put it on Dandel? You voted for Vayne twice even though he could not be getting lynched.
|
@alakslam: because he probably has radiation nukes
|
Oats gettin served.
austin what do you think about the voting wagon for ON? you started it but a lot of people piled on into an innocent flip. You think anyone on the wagon is scum that just hopped on to your case?
|
and Stutters stop lurking
|
lol yea someone shoot that shit down
|
fuck that marv was just trolling but he is a legit cohost.
fml.
|
pretty sure it was Z-Boson that sent that shit
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
