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On June 28 2013 18:16 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2013 16:09 FirmTofu wrote:On June 28 2013 16:05 hzflank wrote:
It's obvious so I will put this out there. If Onegu is town then I am confident of who his number 1 town read is. I want to see that player posting before any blue claims are made. Ignore this statement if it is irrelevant to yours. Remember that Hurricane pushed for Onegu's lynch. This post is not to help the town, but rather to show Firm how my mind is working: The biggest reason why I think that Hurricane is town is because when I scumhunt on him I feel like he is also scumhunting on me. When I look at some other people is has looked like when they scumhunt on me they are actually looking for a scapegoat. If Hurricane made a case against me on Day 3 I would make a case against a third party. If Hurricane thinks that I am scum that does not mean that I think he is scum. In fact in my case, it almost seems that Hurricane is the only person who is actually scumhunting in my direction. Therefore, the fact that Hurricane voted for Onegu does not mean that Onegu thinks that Hurricane is scummy. Onegu has stated that many people are scummy but he has not given away many town reads. When I tried to work out his town reads I got Hurricane and myself. Who else? Spicy might be his third read, but if Onegu is town then Hurricane and myself are his top 2 town reads. I did not visit Alakaslam on night 1, and it appears that Hurricane did not either.
You had me til the end. It is unconfirmed if Hurricane visited Alakaslam at this time.
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On June 28 2013 17:58 LoneMeow wrote:
Hurricane, I feel you're grasping at straws with your town-town scenario, why would you do that? Who's scum if they're both town?
Because once I can rule out town-town, then we're really onto something. I'm not going to just assume scum-town when all it takes is a little legwork to completely rule out town-town.
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On June 28 2013 17:58 Aquanim wrote:
Hurricane and hzflank, I would like to confirm that you two will be in the thread before the lynch and you will have plenty of time to read the arguments I will be posting. With your two votes (assuming LoneMeow does not switch), we will have five votes (enough to ensure an Alakaslam lynch), if I can convince
I believe that of these two Alakaslam is the scum. I don't trust Spicy or StiMaDDict to listen to me (because I suspect they're scum) and I don't think that FirmTofu is capable of detunneling from Onegu at this point. I will need both of you to listen to turn around this lynch.
Any information you have is good, but at this point, today's lynch is likely to be settled by facts, not reads. The two claims we've received are a gift from god for the town at this juncture of the game. Any argument you have should likely revolve around them.
(Yes, I will be around)
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On June 28 2013 18:26 Aquanim wrote:
Hurricane, I agree that watching a scum suspect is suboptimal play as a Watcher. I would like you to think about the possible rationale behind fake-claiming Watcher and to have watched somebody visit Alakaslam as scum in Onegu's position.
If this is gonna work, you're going need to speak plain, or I'll need to get some sleep and get at this with a fresh brain. Is the information you're trying to convey too sensitive to just say outright? If so, I will put mental energy into this as you have requested.
(But I won't like it.)
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On June 28 2013 18:28 hzflank wrote:
If you visited Alakaslam last night then your vote would now be on Alakaslam.
Onegu claimed he saw someone visit Alakaslam. If you visited Alakaslam then you would of gone: "Oh, Onegu saw me, he is telling the truth".
Why does Onegu seeing me mean he's the Town Watcher? He could be a Mafia Tracker.
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God dammit, did I botch this hz? Check out my huge post at the top of the page, I may have stepped in it. (it's 5:30am now)
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It may be moot. HZ seems to think that if I visited 'slam, my vote should be on him. I'm trying to figure out just why that is now.
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Could be, but is it likely? What's to stop the mafia from deducing that I was Watcher Onegu's target, and sending their Tracker into the thread to claim?
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Yeah, we need to slow this pain train down. Right now, I have to decide whether my opponents are smart enough to come up with Alakaslam's claim.
It still doesn't explain why Onegu made such a horrible play as our Watcher though.
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Well, this was a whole bunch of useless. Guess I'll get to sleep. Aqua, I'm now 50/50 on 'slam and onegu.
The one useful thing we got out of all this is that (barring a mod PM otherwise) we know that Alakaslam and Onegu are opposite alignments. Which is good.
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On June 28 2013 18:40 hzflank wrote:
Then we have to go back to: Why would Watch Onegu choose to watch Alakaslam?
Also: How did the scum team know that you were Onegu's number 1 town read? it could of been you or me. They would of had to of guessed.
It's a risky guess, but in the scum's eyes, they're probably more willing to throw Alakaslam to the wolves than any other member. I'm probably reaching. Simplest explanation is probably the best, but we certainly need to keep an open mind. Aqua will be doing us the favor of taking up the charge for 'Slam's lynch tomorrow (or rather, later today).
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EBWOP: (I am going to be for real this time. I don't know when I'll be back, but I will stay active starting in 5 or 6 hours)
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Alright, I'm all caught up. In the end, one of the biggest Facts I've deduced from all this is that Onegu has made some incredibly bad plays, whether he's Scum or Town this game.
If anyone needs my opinion on something, now is the time to ask. Otherwise, I'm going to continue analyzing Aqua's argument.
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Oh come on. That's gotta be the most scummy question ever asked in this game.
Of course Mafia would want to know my exact role. How is that at all relevant to the current vote?!
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I'm currently re-reading 'slam's filter. Onegu, can you please tell me your pre-NK thoughts on Chromatically. If you can quote yourself with Day One material, it would save me a bit of time and let me focus on more important things.
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I'm playing out some End Game scenarios. Aqua, I hope you know what you're doing over there... for your sake.
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LoneMeow and StiM are going to come in with 11th hour hammer votes. If you don't think it's possible for the two of them to be scum, you are mistaken.
We cannot let scum dictate who gets lynched tonight. Does anyone see a solution to this? (Other than relying on mass town coordination with split-second timing to switch once they both finally vote)
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Yes. Onegu I need you to make a post (similar to my pre-NK requests to everyone) assuming you will be mislynched tonight. I need all your Scum and Town reads, and a brief justification for your feelings. If you are mislynched, the town is in a bad position, and we need as much information as possible about your unique experiences and interpretation on how this game has played out.
Don't feel like you have to make full cases on anyone, just give me your reads (gut feels are fine) that you think will be vital to the game going forward.
@Alakaslam
Ditto for you. Need a post of your reads in the event you are mislynched tonight.
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On June 29 2013 03:22 FirmTofu wrote:
I really wish StiM and LoneMeow would be more active. Whichever one of them is town may singlehandedly lose the game for town.
For now, assume both are scum, and that this is an intentional lurker play to set up a last-second 2-vote hammer. Do you see a way to secure lynches on EITHER 'slam OR Onegu that will render this lurker play moot?
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My end-games for an Onegu Mislynch aren't making any sense
##unvote
##Vote: Alakaslam
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EPT
