EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XLIII - Page 4
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 05:40 Hurricane Sponge wrote: If Xzavier flips town, I still probably won't be that convinced that Aqua is scum. These two events are independent of each other in my mind. It could be that both players are Town, and the mafia were simply supporting the bandwagon on the stronger pro-town player. Aqua hasn't posted in a while, but when he does, I like what I feel from him. Depending on Alakaslam's action, he may be a person of interest in questioning. This is key. Both Chromatically and Aqua are far too pro-town for me to even consider them as scum at this point, regardless of the flip. They are pursuing a lynch so vehemently that they cannot possibly be scum. Scum likes to hide. Scum likes to draw attention away from them. They aren't gonna take a huge risk and tunnel someone that they know isn't scum. It's simply illogical. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 05:46 Hurricane Sponge wrote: He has an opinion. He thinks both of the current lynch candidates are scum. It's weird, but I see where he's coming from. My guess is that he's trying to establish a voting track record on who he believes is the most scummy person out there. Which happens to be neither of the current candidates. Even though he does believe they're both scum. Huh, yeah... I guess that is weird. Apathy is a sign of defeatist scum trying to win back the town's favor. Initially, he was very pro-lynching Aqua, now he is apathetic with a fairly low amount of developments? Scummy see, scummy do. Onegu might just be more scummy than Spicy at this point for me. That's quite a turnaround. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 06:07 Hurricane Sponge wrote: EBWOP: GOD DAMMIT my first broken BBCode. My bad. TL:DR Spicy is wasting his vote just like Onegu is. Why would Onegu be MORE scummy at this point? Because his apathy is a scumtell. I already explained that. He's going from tunneling someone to apathy over the course of a handful of posts. Spicy is wasting his vote, sure... but Onegu is doing that and more. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 08:17 hzflank wrote: I will try another angle: LoneMeow was the first to vote on Xzavier. I think that LoneMeow is town. He has never looked scummy to me and he thought that Xzavier was scum for the start. It makes sense that LoneMeow would be the first to vote on Xzavier. Next to add their vote was Chromatically. Despite my earlier attack, Chrom has been looking more and more town to me. The only reason that I can see a scum Chrom voting Xzavier when he did is if Aqua is also scum, and everyone thought that idea was ridiculous. Therefore, I expect most of you see Chrom as town and the first two people on the wagon as town. Aqua was the third to vote. Most of you think Aqua is town. That means most of you must think that the first 3 people on the wagon are town. Is that not odd to anyone? If three townies jump on a scum wagon then there should of been a counter play by the scum team by now. And yet I started the Aqua wagon and I am posting this. It does not make sense. There was a counter play! The scum saw that you had already started a vote on Aqua and used that as an opportunity to draw attention away from Xzavier. While I strongly believe you are town because you were the one to start the lynch with some pretty good analysis, I do not believe that the other people pursuing the Aqua wagon are free from blame. The fact that they jumped on Aqua right after Xzavier's bandwagon was gaining momentum is indicative of this fact. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Scenario 1: Scum initiated or hopped on the lynch on Xzavier early on in the game. This would mean that LoneMeow/Chromatically/Aquanim are all potential scum. How likely is this scenario? Earlier on in the game, we had Chromatically and Aquanim go at it with a full-on slug fest. Although hzflank had a theory that both could be scum, it remains to be seen that that is the case. HOWEVER, this is still a possibility because mafia have their QT chat available during the day and coordinate in that way. Of the three, I would think that LoneMeow is the most likely to be scum because all he did was initiate the bandwagon that led to the demise of town and contributed little of substance. Scenario 2: Scum did not initiate or hop on the lynch on Xzavier. Q. How would these scum react when they see a bandwagon forming on a townie? A. They would probably try to dissociate themselves from the bandwagon unless it was unlikely that the lynch would go through. Because the lynch was likely to go through, they would behave in the aforementioned way. Okay great! Let's make a list of the players they weren't associated with the bandwagon for the majority of the game. Note: I am including people that jumped on the bandwagon when it was inevitable. 1) hzflank 2) Onegu 3) Spicydinosaur 4) StiMaDDict 5) Alakaslam 6) Hurricane Sponge Of these people, hzflank and Hurricane Sponge are playing extremely pro-town by constantly talking about the game. This should not eliminate them from the running; however, we can temporarily narrow down the list. 1) Onegu 2) Spicydinosaur 3) StiMaDDict 4) Alakaslam Onegu: Onegu votes for Aqua, then a few posts later votes for Alakaslam. Most importantly, he declares his apathy toward the lynch of Aquanim vs Xzavier! The Case Against Onegu: Onegu is [re]scum[/red] and Aquanim and Xzavier are both town. Therefore, Onegu is apathetic towards the lynch. He knows both will flip town, so he immediately dissociates himself with that lynch and votes Alakaslam who will not get lynched that day. I will go into further detail about my other reads, but first, I would like to get some opinions about my analysis. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 12:29 Alakaslam wrote: Spicy, work with sponge please. This will lead to town victory. You two (and Onegu) are the most clearheaded in the thread so far, and you've both been right in the face of bandwagon. Learning, learning.... Have you ever stopped to consider that the reason they appear the most "clear headed" is because they know that the flip will be town? You realize that if they know the flip is town, they are scum? I mean, this is common sense. The reason they look smart is because they know people's alignment and can act accordingly. Scum tell are when you find these leaps in logic that indicate that a logical step in their reasoning assumes certain alignments. You've got to keep looking for these things. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 12:36 Alakaslam wrote: Yeah, maybe, check my late filter. Depends on cases against him. I just gave my vote to a mislynch right after reading town off his filter. Do not expect voting confidence from me yet! Going to homework, I need it! :p. Potato may = paranoia. Possibly acute. Along with this homework, I am going to read the town section of the thread I linked again. If you make cases against me folks don't do it based on the "lurking" I'm about to do for obvious reasons. -_- Not only is the case laid out in plain sight for you to see, you are choosing, deliberately, to ignore our dire need to pursue this lynch. The case for Xzavier pales in comparison to the case we have on Onegu because we can work off the known fact that Xzavier flipped town. Honestly, a lynch on Onegu should be a no-brainer for town at this point. I can think of no situation where a town-aligned person would behave in the way that he did. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 12:40 Hurricane Sponge wrote: @FirmTofu Does this exonerate Alakaslam in your mind? (Onegu seemed to have the idea of planting the seeds for a Day 2 Alakaslam lynch) Of course not. In my mind, Alakaslam is catapulting his way to the top of the scum ladder. Assuming Onegu is scum, we can see that he chose to push the early stages of an Aqua lynch and then, when Xzavier was guaranteed to be lynched, Onegu switched his vote to Alakaslam based upon a fairly pathetic case. My take? Onegu is trying to use the last few hours of the day to place himself at odds with Alakaslam because they are both scum! | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 12:40 Chromatically wrote: Tofu, I'm glad that we are thinking the same thing on Onegu. I'm going to have another long look at Spicy and see if I can find some good reasons why he wasn't voting Xzav. It's possible that he might have been avoiding that for no reason to avoid suspicion. I'm off the mind that the Xzav lynch had good reasoning behind it. Knowing what we knew, I would lynch him again (and a lot of strong town agreed with the reasoning, it seems). I concur. The Xzavier lynch didn't actually have the highest chance of flipping scum for me; however, it definitely provided invaluable information that we can use throughout the game. I'm glad to see we agree. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 12:43 Chromatically wrote: Interestingly enough, it's very much not impossible that none of the scum were voting for Xzav. I'd still recommend a vigi shot in Stim. I disagree. vigi should shoot the target most likely to flip scum, and that is most definitely Onegu at this point. P.S. I wouldn't mind Spicy either *wink wink* | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 12:44 Onegu wrote: [/red]Wow like I told you guys before I slept if xzavier is lynched it will give us a ton of information, and yes now I will be leading the aquanim bandwagon as I felt he was scum and his vote and case on him before makes me feel he is the scummiest. Also makeing the claim I dont care brings way to much heat on me if I am scum when I can just put my vote back on aqua saying I should be on a bandwagon. You still aren't addressing your scum tell. Come back when you actually read my post please. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 13:21 Onegu wrote: [/red]My vote isnt a scum tell and neither is my apathy toward who get lynched, jeez think about it, me doing what I did is something only town would do, scum wouldnt do it because of all the backlash if scum really didnt care they would put thier vote on on of the two bandwagons and not say much as to why they voted(1). I gave you reasons for my vote and reasons why I was ok with both of them being lynched, none of that is a scumtell(2). The fact xzavier flipped town we should be looking at people who piled on to his bandwagon they would want to ensure the lynch of the person with the most votes so there isnt a last minute swich onto one of the scum. (1)Town wouldn't do it either because it is a scum-tell so the bolded point is invalid. (2) Your vote was contradictory to your statements. It was a scumtell, you can't deny that. You are simply saying "I'm right and you're wrong" and that really isn't much of a defense. You should be saying "I made a mistake and I meant to say..." You are digging yourself deeper into a hole that you won't be able to crawl out of at this point. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 14:10 Alakaslam wrote: Waitaminute I just sort I did this in reply to him. Pah! Make your cases for a minute I swear I don't know if Onegu is scum or not, FirmTofu (who I DO think is town, he granted my wish) says Onegu scum slipped but I think it relies on me being scum and I know better. But iPhone, that is why i didn't see the error in my own post. Tofu what page did you elaborate on? Medic, I really hope you exist. You should know who to protect right now. If you think I'm asking for guard you are daft, but I assume you know who needs it. It doesn't rely on you being scum at all. You flipping mafia is somewhat reliant on Onegu flipping mafia, however. I believe my case against Onegu is 2 pages ago. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 26 2013 14:18 Alakaslam wrote: [/red]Nvm, page 32. Huh. But... Then is your read on me not 100% scum? Or do you mean that he would bus or just knew I would not be lynched? I SWORE I'd be lynched because I was a total fail, and I largely felt the case against Xzavier was a rust bucket until I read Aquanim's filter. Hindsight is perfect, how did Onegu know at that time I would not be lynched? He was the only vote on you. He was the first person to make a case against you. His case was pathetic. There were already 2 bandwagons going on against 2 people decision was which one of the two would be lynched. He definitely knew that you wouldn't get lynched... | ||
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