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you've said nothing of value worth repeating, so ok.
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On May 25 2013 01:12 WaveofShadow wrote:
SO, LOOKING FOR SCUM
GK comes back to announce a RB and then disappears until tomorrow at whch point he will 'solve the game.'
I really don't know what to make of this.
After his rant the other day I was beginning to think he was town despite the meta cases looking good against him because I know what it feels like to have people jump down your throat every game, and that post is a reaction I could see myself resorting to. I have been wrong about this sort of read before (Clarity in LXI) so I don't know if I can trust those gut feels though.
At this point I almost feel like if we can finally discern what the fuck is going on with GK we'll be that much closer to figuring all this shit out. Would anyone like to discuss?
This is true, the problem is killing Dandel is still the right play even if we pinned him as 100% mafia right now.
I've got 45 minutes till I'm off work so happy to talk about anything GK-related in the meantime. I'm open for questions
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Anyway, just one more numbers ramble. Say we're on 5-4-1 right now, and we choose to lynch mafia, and say we have a jailkeeper. Jailkeeper autoroleblocks Dandel to save us from 1 kp per night
lynch mafia -> 5-3-1, mafia kill town, dandel roleblocked -> 4-3-1
lynch mafia -> 4-2-1, mafia kill town, dandel roleblocked -> 3-2-1
lynch mafia -> 3-1-1, mafia kill town, dandel roleblocked -> 2-1-1
lynch mafia -> 2-0-1, roleblock SK, win!
The problem with this scenario is that it magically assumes that mafia will manage not to hit OR roleblock the jailkeeper for 3 consecutive cycles.
Now, if we lynch the SK at 5-4-1
lynch SK -> 5-4-0, jailkeeper has to get one hero roleblock/jail and destiny is back in town's hands.
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if there are any holes in that, I'm all ears
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On May 25 2013 01:18 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On May 25 2013 01:14 marvellosity wrote:On May 25 2013 01:12 WaveofShadow wrote:
SO, LOOKING FOR SCUM
GK comes back to announce a RB and then disappears until tomorrow at whch point he will 'solve the game.'
I really don't know what to make of this.
After his rant the other day I was beginning to think he was town despite the meta cases looking good against him because I know what it feels like to have people jump down your throat every game, and that post is a reaction I could see myself resorting to. I have been wrong about this sort of read before (Clarity in LXI) so I don't know if I can trust those gut feels though.
At this point I almost feel like if we can finally discern what the fuck is going on with GK we'll be that much closer to figuring all this shit out. Would anyone like to discuss? This is true, the problem is killing Dandel is still the right play even if we pinned him as 100% mafia right now. I've got 45 minutes till I'm off work so happy to talk about anything GK-related in the meantime. I'm open for questions This is a familiar situation between us, marv. It bothers me a little that we've had these discussions multiple times yet pretty much nothing has come of it every time we do it, but whatever. I don't think anyone commented on GK's rant post. Did you have any thoughts?
The biggest thing that we know NOW at the time we didn't at the time of GK's rant post, is that Spicy, his main (I think?) suspicion is dead.
Do you remember earlier in the game, when he said the main difference between town GK and mafia GK is that mafia GK has shit reads? well...........
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On May 25 2013 01:28 JarJarDrinks wrote:Show nested quote +On May 25 2013 00:31 Promethelax wrote:
If both Roleblocker and Jailkeeper exist, No. However a Roleblocked Jail Keeper's Roleblock will still go through. Am I missing something marv? Mafia RBing JK wont hurt since DL would still get blocked correct?
look at the numbers, i'm assuming dandel's shot doesn't go through every night. mafia still has a shot.
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On May 25 2013 01:27 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On May 25 2013 01:23 marvellosity wrote:
if there are any holes in that, I'm all ears You're assuming that mafia don't already know who JK is. If Dandel is telling the truth it's reasonable to assume that they might know as well (does anyone here know? I think I might have an idea). Also if he is telling the truth considering the way he's been playing all game, is it likely that he'd actually completely fuck us (and maybe himself) by revealing the JK's identity?
it doesn't matter. if the mafia know who the JK is we're dead regardless.
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On May 25 2013 01:31 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On May 25 2013 01:25 marvellosity wrote:On May 25 2013 01:18 WaveofShadow wrote:On May 25 2013 01:14 marvellosity wrote:On May 25 2013 01:12 WaveofShadow wrote:
SO, LOOKING FOR SCUM
GK comes back to announce a RB and then disappears until tomorrow at whch point he will 'solve the game.'
I really don't know what to make of this.
After his rant the other day I was beginning to think he was town despite the meta cases looking good against him because I know what it feels like to have people jump down your throat every game, and that post is a reaction I could see myself resorting to. I have been wrong about this sort of read before (Clarity in LXI) so I don't know if I can trust those gut feels though.
At this point I almost feel like if we can finally discern what the fuck is going on with GK we'll be that much closer to figuring all this shit out. Would anyone like to discuss? This is true, the problem is killing Dandel is still the right play even if we pinned him as 100% mafia right now. I've got 45 minutes till I'm off work so happy to talk about anything GK-related in the meantime. I'm open for questions This is a familiar situation between us, marv. It bothers me a little that we've had these discussions multiple times yet pretty much nothing has come of it every time we do it, but whatever. I don't think anyone commented on GK's rant post. Did you have any thoughts? The biggest thing that we know NOW at the time we didn't at the time of GK's rant post, is that Spicy, his main (I think?) suspicion is dead. Do you remember earlier in the game, when he said the main difference between town GK and mafia GK is that mafia GK has shit reads? well........... See this is more meta shit though and I am having a lot of trouble taking it all at face value as it seems almost everything directed at him is solely based on meta (aside from his decidedly odd play during this game). Is it likely that's he'd out himself like this if he knew how Spicy was going to flip? ALso marv do you have anything to say about the CONTENT of his rant post? Also what did you mean by 'even if Dandel is 100% mafia?'
This isn't "meta shit". This is GK's *own* description of his play. In *this* game.
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Wave, "him" in that scenario was GK, not Dandel.
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On May 25 2013 01:32 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On May 25 2013 01:31 WaveofShadow wrote:On May 25 2013 01:25 marvellosity wrote:On May 25 2013 01:18 WaveofShadow wrote:On May 25 2013 01:14 marvellosity wrote:On May 25 2013 01:12 WaveofShadow wrote:
SO, LOOKING FOR SCUM
GK comes back to announce a RB and then disappears until tomorrow at whch point he will 'solve the game.'
I really don't know what to make of this.
After his rant the other day I was beginning to think he was town despite the meta cases looking good against him because I know what it feels like to have people jump down your throat every game, and that post is a reaction I could see myself resorting to. I have been wrong about this sort of read before (Clarity in LXI) so I don't know if I can trust those gut feels though.
At this point I almost feel like if we can finally discern what the fuck is going on with GK we'll be that much closer to figuring all this shit out. Would anyone like to discuss? This is true, the problem is killing Dandel is still the right play even if we pinned him as 100% mafia right now. I've got 45 minutes till I'm off work so happy to talk about anything GK-related in the meantime. I'm open for questions This is a familiar situation between us, marv. It bothers me a little that we've had these discussions multiple times yet pretty much nothing has come of it every time we do it, but whatever. I don't think anyone commented on GK's rant post. Did you have any thoughts? The biggest thing that we know NOW at the time we didn't at the time of GK's rant post, is that Spicy, his main (I think?) suspicion is dead. Do you remember earlier in the game, when he said the main difference between town GK and mafia GK is that mafia GK has shit reads? well........... See this is more meta shit though and I am having a lot of trouble taking it all at face value as it seems almost everything directed at him is solely based on meta (aside from his decidedly odd play during this game). Is it likely that's he'd out himself like this if he knew how Spicy was going to flip? ALso marv do you have anything to say about the CONTENT of his rant post? Also what did you mean by 'even if Dandel is 100% mafia?' This isn't "meta shit". This is GK's *own* description of his play. In *this* game.
sorry, i should add that 'outing himself like this' devolves quite a lot into wifom.
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On May 25 2013 01:38 s0Lstice wrote:
if its 5-4-1 I think we are fucked regardless.
as outlined we have a better chance killing the SK as it would only involve one hero action
but yes, we're probably fucked regardless.
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On May 25 2013 01:39 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On May 25 2013 01:33 marvellosity wrote:
Wave, "him" in that scenario was GK, not Dandel. Oh ok. Syntactic ambiguity. Show nested quote +On May 25 2013 01:35 marvellosity wrote:On May 25 2013 01:32 marvellosity wrote:On May 25 2013 01:31 WaveofShadow wrote:On May 25 2013 01:25 marvellosity wrote:On May 25 2013 01:18 WaveofShadow wrote:On May 25 2013 01:14 marvellosity wrote:On May 25 2013 01:12 WaveofShadow wrote:
SO, LOOKING FOR SCUM
GK comes back to announce a RB and then disappears until tomorrow at whch point he will 'solve the game.'
I really don't know what to make of this.
After his rant the other day I was beginning to think he was town despite the meta cases looking good against him because I know what it feels like to have people jump down your throat every game, and that post is a reaction I could see myself resorting to. I have been wrong about this sort of read before (Clarity in LXI) so I don't know if I can trust those gut feels though.
At this point I almost feel like if we can finally discern what the fuck is going on with GK we'll be that much closer to figuring all this shit out. Would anyone like to discuss? This is true, the problem is killing Dandel is still the right play even if we pinned him as 100% mafia right now. I've got 45 minutes till I'm off work so happy to talk about anything GK-related in the meantime. I'm open for questions This is a familiar situation between us, marv. It bothers me a little that we've had these discussions multiple times yet pretty much nothing has come of it every time we do it, but whatever. I don't think anyone commented on GK's rant post. Did you have any thoughts? The biggest thing that we know NOW at the time we didn't at the time of GK's rant post, is that Spicy, his main (I think?) suspicion is dead. Do you remember earlier in the game, when he said the main difference between town GK and mafia GK is that mafia GK has shit reads? well........... See this is more meta shit though and I am having a lot of trouble taking it all at face value as it seems almost everything directed at him is solely based on meta (aside from his decidedly odd play during this game). Is it likely that's he'd out himself like this if he knew how Spicy was going to flip? ALso marv do you have anything to say about the CONTENT of his rant post? Also what did you mean by 'even if Dandel is 100% mafia?' This isn't "meta shit". This is GK's *own* description of his play. In *this* game. sorry, i should add that 'outing himself like this' devolves quite a lot into wifom. But I want to look at this just a little. Is that a likely thing for mafia to say knowing the direction he was heading?
if GK is mafia he's the most suspicious mafia out of all the mafia who exist. So yes, why not. This argument is a bad one because they can just kill Spicy and have someone use this argument in his favour.
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On May 25 2013 01:41 s0Lstice wrote:
oh right I forgot the JK can block mafia KP
how did you forget when i mentioned it in my post like 5 minutes ago :p
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ok it was 20 minutes ago.
Time flies when you're completely fucking doomed.
I'm sure that's the saying
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On May 25 2013 01:43 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On May 25 2013 01:40 marvellosity wrote:On May 25 2013 01:39 WaveofShadow wrote:On May 25 2013 01:33 marvellosity wrote:
Wave, "him" in that scenario was GK, not Dandel. Oh ok. Syntactic ambiguity. On May 25 2013 01:35 marvellosity wrote:On May 25 2013 01:32 marvellosity wrote:On May 25 2013 01:31 WaveofShadow wrote:On May 25 2013 01:25 marvellosity wrote:On May 25 2013 01:18 WaveofShadow wrote:On May 25 2013 01:14 marvellosity wrote:On May 25 2013 01:12 WaveofShadow wrote:
SO, LOOKING FOR SCUM
GK comes back to announce a RB and then disappears until tomorrow at whch point he will 'solve the game.'
I really don't know what to make of this.
After his rant the other day I was beginning to think he was town despite the meta cases looking good against him because I know what it feels like to have people jump down your throat every game, and that post is a reaction I could see myself resorting to. I have been wrong about this sort of read before (Clarity in LXI) so I don't know if I can trust those gut feels though.
At this point I almost feel like if we can finally discern what the fuck is going on with GK we'll be that much closer to figuring all this shit out. Would anyone like to discuss? This is true, the problem is killing Dandel is still the right play even if we pinned him as 100% mafia right now. I've got 45 minutes till I'm off work so happy to talk about anything GK-related in the meantime. I'm open for questions This is a familiar situation between us, marv. It bothers me a little that we've had these discussions multiple times yet pretty much nothing has come of it every time we do it, but whatever. I don't think anyone commented on GK's rant post. Did you have any thoughts? The biggest thing that we know NOW at the time we didn't at the time of GK's rant post, is that Spicy, his main (I think?) suspicion is dead. Do you remember earlier in the game, when he said the main difference between town GK and mafia GK is that mafia GK has shit reads? well........... See this is more meta shit though and I am having a lot of trouble taking it all at face value as it seems almost everything directed at him is solely based on meta (aside from his decidedly odd play during this game). Is it likely that's he'd out himself like this if he knew how Spicy was going to flip? ALso marv do you have anything to say about the CONTENT of his rant post? Also what did you mean by 'even if Dandel is 100% mafia?' This isn't "meta shit". This is GK's *own* description of his play. In *this* game. sorry, i should add that 'outing himself like this' devolves quite a lot into wifom. But I want to look at this just a little. Is that a likely thing for mafia to say knowing the direction he was heading? if GK is mafia he's the most suspicious mafia out of all the mafia who exist. So yes, why not. This argument is a bad one because they can just kill Spicy and have someone use this argument in his favour. Alright I see that. You say that GK is the most suspicious out of those who exist (if mafia). Do you have any other reads atm or anyone you'd like to discuss?
Not in my 15 minutes before I leave work. Especially as it's kinda futile for the minute anyway.
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On May 25 2013 01:56 JarJarDrinks wrote:Show nested quote +On May 25 2013 01:29 marvellosity wrote:On May 25 2013 01:28 JarJarDrinks wrote:On May 25 2013 00:31 Promethelax wrote:
If both Roleblocker and Jailkeeper exist, No. However a Roleblocked Jail Keeper's Roleblock will still go through. Am I missing something marv? Mafia RBing JK wont hurt since DL would still get blocked correct? look at the numbers, i'm assuming dandel's shot doesn't go through every night. mafia still has a shot. So then what did you mean by this: Show nested quote +On May 25 2013 01:22 marvellosity wrote:
Anyway, just one more numbers ramble. Say we're on 5-4-1 right now, and we choose to lynch mafia, and say we have a jailkeeper. Jailkeeper autoroleblocks Dandel to save us from 1 kp per night
lynch mafia -> 5-3-1, mafia kill town, dandel roleblocked -> 4-3-1
lynch mafia -> 4-2-1, mafia kill town, dandel roleblocked -> 3-2-1
lynch mafia -> 3-1-1, mafia kill town, dandel roleblocked -> 2-1-1
lynch mafia -> 2-0-1, roleblock SK, win!
The problem with this scenario is that it magically assumes that mafia will manage not to hit OR roleblock the jailkeeper for 3 consecutive cycles.
Now, if we lynch the SK at 5-4-1
lynch SK -> 5-4-0, jailkeeper has to get one hero roleblock/jail and destiny is back in town's hands. Did you miss the ruling? Because it really seems like you're saying whatever you can to have us take the one course of action that can immediatelty lose us the game.
what am i missing? what are you not understanding???????
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On May 25 2013 01:57 s0Lstice wrote:
Marv you seemed pretty convinced there are 4. Why?
Earlier in the game? 4/16 is standard mafia numbers
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Jarjar, those numbers TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE SK SHOT *NOT* going through. how is it hard to grasp?
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On May 25 2013 02:01 JarJarDrinks wrote:Show nested quote +On May 25 2013 01:58 marvellosity wrote:On May 25 2013 01:56 JarJarDrinks wrote:On May 25 2013 01:29 marvellosity wrote:On May 25 2013 01:28 JarJarDrinks wrote:On May 25 2013 00:31 Promethelax wrote:
If both Roleblocker and Jailkeeper exist, No. However a Roleblocked Jail Keeper's Roleblock will still go through. Am I missing something marv? Mafia RBing JK wont hurt since DL would still get blocked correct? look at the numbers, i'm assuming dandel's shot doesn't go through every night. mafia still has a shot. So then what did you mean by this: On May 25 2013 01:22 marvellosity wrote:
Anyway, just one more numbers ramble. Say we're on 5-4-1 right now, and we choose to lynch mafia, and say we have a jailkeeper. Jailkeeper autoroleblocks Dandel to save us from 1 kp per night
lynch mafia -> 5-3-1, mafia kill town, dandel roleblocked -> 4-3-1
lynch mafia -> 4-2-1, mafia kill town, dandel roleblocked -> 3-2-1
lynch mafia -> 3-1-1, mafia kill town, dandel roleblocked -> 2-1-1
lynch mafia -> 2-0-1, roleblock SK, win!
The problem with this scenario is that it magically assumes that mafia will manage not to hit OR roleblock the jailkeeper for 3 consecutive cycles.
Now, if we lynch the SK at 5-4-1
lynch SK -> 5-4-0, jailkeeper has to get one hero roleblock/jail and destiny is back in town's hands. Did you miss the ruling? Because it really seems like you're saying whatever you can to have us take the one course of action that can immediatelty lose us the game. what am i missing? what are you not understanding??????? You say "The problem with this scenario is that it magically assumes that mafia will manage not to hit OR roleblock the jailkeeper for 3 consecutive cycles." But according to the ruling above, mafia roleblocking the JK won't stop DL from getting blocked. Am I reading something wrong?
Ah. yes. Ok, this scenario magically assumes mafia will fail to hit the JK 3 cycles in a row (when it is in their best interests to do so). You're right, that bit was incorrect.
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Nonetheless, the jailkeeper getting one excellent roleblock is a much higher percentage play than mafia failing to kill the JK for 3 cycles in a row.
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EPT
