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TL Mafia LXI - Page 13

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 03 2013 22:11 GMT
#4571
Just to keep track

Confirmed town for the sake of the discussion:

BC/Palmar

Town based on what we have so far

Kush
Artanis
Bill Murray

Town based on other things (cop checks, modconfirms)

geript
OO

Null-ish:

Stutters

Remaining:

yamato
hopeless1der
sharrant
giggles
waveofshadow
TRN
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 03 2013 22:12 GMT
#4572
On May 04 2013 07:11 WaveofShadow wrote:
I had a very angry post I was about to submit but I've decided against it. I think I know what to expect in future games so as not to reach this point.


what are you angry about buddy?
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 03 2013 22:14 GMT
#4573
I'm not as up to date on the remaing six BC. I think WoS might be town based on effort alone, and TRN is pretty damn ballsy to go after me on n1 mason (if you assume I'm town). He couldn't have known (as scum) that I wouldn't put any effort into the following days, so it's more likely he wanted to buddy up with me as town.

I'm reading Sharrant atm, but feel free to throw out thoughts as you go.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 03 2013 22:20 GMT
#4575
This is a pretty good list by Sharrant imo.

On April 25 2013 03:42 Sharrant wrote:
I've got to pretty much echo Rayne's list at this point with a few changes:

Super town:
BM
Vivax
Kush
Palmar

Town:
Yamato
ObviousOne
Geript
Rayne
TRN

Slightly town:
Ace
BC
Sylencia

Hopeless

Null:
Drazak
Tube
Mr. Cheesecake
VisceraEyes
WoS
Grush

Lynch one of these tomorrow:
Clarity
ShiaoPi

Less good lynches, but still good lynches:
Giygas
Stutters695 (A better vig shot, but is very likely to be scum in my eyes)

Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 03 2013 22:41 GMT
#4578
clearly I am paranoid, and with 2 millers and a framer, and hell, one of our cop was insane, so that means there's been plenty of misdirection, a godfather isn't guaranteed at all.

also what OO said. he gets massive leeway.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 03 2013 22:51 GMT
#4580
yeah I'd put sharrant tentatively in the group with stutters for now, but may be he should be higher than that. TRN gets nowhere as much leeway with his thing as OO as it's much weaker.

But mostly yeah
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 03 2013 22:51 GMT
#4581
away for a while now
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 04 2013 10:46 GMT
#4612
you're forgetting vigi shots...

Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 05 2013 14:13 GMT
#4730
On May 05 2013 14:12 yamato77 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 05 2013 13:19 Sharrant wrote:
Whether or not it happened, to discount scum jailing one of their own on day as "very improbable" is unwise in my opinion. Jailer claiming would give us one confirmed townie, then a dead townie the following night and no protection from that point on. And it wouldn't give us another confirmed townie because scum no doubt put more than two seconds thought into their night one jail.

If they did that, they'd first come to your conclusion, and then realize that they only had probably 1/3 chance of hitting a role that would be hampered by a role block, and that they could use their own roleblock for town cred.

Now it doesn't matter whether they did that or not, because just the fact that they could have done that means that you can't confirm a second person from a jailer claim. Thus I urge the jailer not to claim.

Yes, you can, because scum wouldn't jail their own N1. Stopping a cop/other jailer is so much more important than the "town cred" from a N1 roleblock.


Scum can withhold their jail thing to claim a roleblock.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 05 2013 17:12 GMT
#4741
What's up sharrant? Haven't got much time.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 05 2013 17:13 GMT
#4742
On May 05 2013 23:18 Sharrant wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 05 2013 23:13 Palmar wrote:
On May 05 2013 14:12 yamato77 wrote:
On May 05 2013 13:19 Sharrant wrote:
Whether or not it happened, to discount scum jailing one of their own on day as "very improbable" is unwise in my opinion. Jailer claiming would give us one confirmed townie, then a dead townie the following night and no protection from that point on. And it wouldn't give us another confirmed townie because scum no doubt put more than two seconds thought into their night one jail.

If they did that, they'd first come to your conclusion, and then realize that they only had probably 1/3 chance of hitting a role that would be hampered by a role block, and that they could use their own roleblock for town cred.

Now it doesn't matter whether they did that or not, because just the fact that they could have done that means that you can't confirm a second person from a jailer claim. Thus I urge the jailer not to claim.

Yes, you can, because scum wouldn't jail their own N1. Stopping a cop/other jailer is so much more important than the "town cred" from a N1 roleblock.


Scum can withhold their jail thing to claim a roleblock.


That too.

Palmar: Who did you check last night, what was the result?


Didn't even send in a check.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 05 2013 17:14 GMT
#4746
nope, I actually checked him.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 05 2013 17:20 GMT
#4748
btw to everyone who got confused about what happened tonight between me and BC.

I'm not as certain as I used to be that BC is scum... but look at what he did and how he did it last night. I'm somewhat conflicted but it certainly looks like he had some sort of questions regarding the targets he selected, only to immediately drop them when I explained my stance.

On May 04 2013 06:00 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
I want to hear your opinion on stutters. Guy has replaced in for drH and since joining the game has done absolutely nothing that I would consider helpful in any sense. What say you?


On May 04 2013 06:55 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
I would like your opinion on Kush. The guy has been inactive most of the game and has spent a ton of time hopping on popular sentiment as it happens. He always seems to be around to jump onto the popular wagon at the time and doesn't ever push what he thinks should be done.


On May 04 2013 07:42 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
that leaves us with yamato, hopeless and giggles.

Of them all 3 have major points against them that they could be mafia.


By my count he has like 6 serious suspicions (including me) before we started our back and forth.

It just doesn't look right.

Also I feel like the effort put into that back-and-forth was somewhat uneven. (me doing a lot, BC doing little).

But I need to think on it.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 05 2013 18:35 GMT
#4754
Lol sharrant is correct. It's entirely possible I'm insane

Man I'm bad
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 05 2013 18:42 GMT
#4759
This basically confirms sharrant as town when I flip town. If scum realized that I could be insane they'd shoot me out of fear that I would stumble upon one of them. Scum sharrant would have shot me last night
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 05 2013 18:50 GMT
#4761
Also, now that it's very possible I'm insane it's a much better idea to lynch me in a few days than now. Either scum takea the free mislynch then, and thus risks me being insane, or thwy shoot me and solve the problem for you
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 05 2013 21:06 GMT
#4775
On May 06 2013 04:23 Sharrant wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2013 03:50 Palmar wrote:
Also, now that it's very possible I'm insane it's a much better idea to lynch me in a few days than now. Either scum takea the free mislynch then, and thus risks me being insane, or thwy shoot me and solve the problem for you


I kind of hate this, because I'm now waffling about lynching you today. I do think you need to die unless we lynch scum the next two nights, and I'm sure you can understand that you're going to have to be lynched regardless of your alignment.

The idea of leaving you alive into the night phase is a very tempting one. If nothing else, let's chat about what's left in this game so that whenever you flip we've got some more information to go on.

What do you think about Artanis asking the jailer to claim?


I don't think it tells us much about Artanis's alignment at all. I stand by my earlier assessment that he's town.

I am certain we need to lynch into these 4 people, based on my analysis during the night, with the added dimension that I think you must be town because you would have shot me if you realized I could be insane.

Giggles
BC
Yamato
Hopless

I am inclined to lynch BC, based on what I wrote earlier about his effort and attitude towards the discussion I brought up during the night. I think we now 100% know what his reads are (Hopeless/Yamato) since he stated them pretty clearly, so if he flips town, we have all the information we need from him.

I don't think he'll flip town though.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 05 2013 21:26 GMT
#4779
On May 06 2013 06:21 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2013 06:06 Palmar wrote:
On May 06 2013 04:23 Sharrant wrote:
On May 06 2013 03:50 Palmar wrote:
Also, now that it's very possible I'm insane it's a much better idea to lynch me in a few days than now. Either scum takea the free mislynch then, and thus risks me being insane, or thwy shoot me and solve the problem for you


I kind of hate this, because I'm now waffling about lynching you today. I do think you need to die unless we lynch scum the next two nights, and I'm sure you can understand that you're going to have to be lynched regardless of your alignment.

The idea of leaving you alive into the night phase is a very tempting one. If nothing else, let's chat about what's left in this game so that whenever you flip we've got some more information to go on.

What do you think about Artanis asking the jailer to claim?


I don't think it tells us much about Artanis's alignment at all. I stand by my earlier assessment that he's town.

I am certain we need to lynch into these 4 people, based on my analysis during the night, with the added dimension that I think you must be town because you would have shot me if you realized I could be insane.

Giggles
BC
Yamato
Hopless

I am inclined to lynch BC, based on what I wrote earlier about his effort and attitude towards the discussion I brought up during the night. I think we now 100% know what his reads are (Hopeless/Yamato) since he stated them pretty clearly, so if he flips town, we have all the information we need from him.

I don't think he'll flip town though.


go for it if you want. I will flip town and then you will have to worry about town wanting to lynch you. My firm belief is yamato and hopeless are the last two. I could be wrong, but given the current players left (myself included) i can make a case against every one of us as to why we could be scum. If town thinks its best to off me first then lynch into my reads, so be it.


Town wants to lynch me anyway.

But who should be our first lynch if you flip town?
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 06 2013 09:44 GMT
#4856
On May 06 2013 17:27 yamato77 wrote:
Knowing which if those four scenarios is the truth is impossible without lynching Palmar.

What kind of cop cares so little about figuring out his sanity in a game like this that he not only claims after one check, but also FORGETS TO SEND IN A CHECK after having not even confirmed his own sanity?

Palmar is not this bad at mafia.


you're awful or mafia.
Computer says mafia
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22633 Posts
May 06 2013 10:35 GMT
#4857
Here's some food for thought.

I botched my role. But it's equally botched if I'm scum or town. There is no more chance that I mess up my role or "role" depending on what you perceive my alignment to be, as scum or town, so there is nothing that tells you I'm mafia from making a mistake.

My claim to fame, and the reason people perceive me as a strong player is two things, my day 1 play which has an unusually high amount of success, mostly based on my ability to pick out townies on day 1 and thus increase the chances of a successful lynch, and secondly my ability to persuade and influence a thread.

Nowhere will you find anyone claim that I'm some mastermind at using roles or game mechanics, in fact I'm notorious for ignoring game mechanics and roles, hell I basically threw a game for town once by forcing mass claims on town when scum had like infinite claimer-KP, because I just ignore the mechanics of games.

I don't often roll cop, I don't spend much time thinking about my role. I just do whatever. I thought/think BC is scum and figuring out my sanity is something I hardly cared about. I had a guilty check on a guy who I thought was scum, so I just thought fuck it let's do this. Worst case I lynch a scummy towner and know something's wrong with my sanity.

It's terrible play to lynch me right now. Scum has to worry about me actually being insane, and thus capable of finding them out, so they should solve the problem for you. In addition it's entirely possible scum already knows I'm paranoid (BC being scum?) so in that case they wouldn't shoot me. You can push this awful lynch later, but now is not the time.

I know it's very difficult to tell between bad play and scummy play, but honestly this should be a fairly easy case of it, since it's simply a mistake, and who is more impulsive and prone to mistakes? Scum or town?
Computer says mafia
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