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RED Team's Prize - Page 6

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
April 02 2013 12:42 GMT
#2553
Is Marv scum then?
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
April 02 2013 14:47 GMT
#2592
On April 02 2013 23:43 prplhz wrote:
because it's a complete bullshit role.

have you ever seen a role that informs people that they were shot when they weren't shot?


Have you ever heard of a medic where the saved person gets informed but the medic doesn't? That seems odd to me.

Theory: kurumi didn't make rules for notifications beforehand, and is making them up as we go along. I agree that it seems odd for a target to be informed of a failed shot at them, but we have no reason to doubt it, as for that to be wrong both oats and Ryan would have to be lying together. However, this is a closed setup, and as the The Game fooferaw has shown, you can't rely on your speculation about how a role probably works when the setup is closed like this.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
April 02 2013 16:05 GMT
#2636
Actually, maybe we should have him shoot at either me or marv or hapa - if we think we have enough mislynches to go through all of the suspicious guys maybe we should hedge our bets on the guys we think are safe?
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
April 02 2013 21:03 GMT
#2739
Wut
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
April 02 2013 21:07 GMT
#2744
Wait why not have prplhz shoot sinani? Do you really think there's two vanilla mafia? In a town with this many power roles?
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
April 02 2013 22:06 GMT
#2780
On April 03 2013 06:08 prplhz wrote:
snb if you use your oneshot doc on someone who isn't hit, is it refunded?


no it doesn't
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
April 02 2013 22:07 GMT
#2781
On April 03 2013 07:01 Keirathi wrote:
Okay, rayn does have a point.

IF prplhz is scum, AND he's telling the truth about how his role works, BUT he lied about his target from last night and gave a gun to sinani instead of Smurf, then scum could possibly kill 3 people tonight.

But if they do, then that means we lynch prplhz tomorrow instead of sinani (so that prplhz doesn't get ANOTHER blue snipe shot off), because we know that sinani is in fact a vanilla scum.


you forgot and if scum have two "vanilla" in a game with this many town PRs
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
April 02 2013 22:13 GMT
#2783
whatever we do we have to make sure people put in the thread who they're targeting - we probably won't know when the night deadline comes because kurumi is going to add in a "misdirection time"
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
April 02 2013 23:07 GMT
#2811
lol
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
April 02 2013 23:33 GMT
#2818
On April 03 2013 08:16 marvellosity wrote:
rayn going balls to the wall claiming mafia this phase


so i thought that but then i remembered how hard oats "claimed mafia" during the day phase with his own similar paranoid dont kill me stuff. so now i'm not so sure it's alignment indicative as opposed to paranoia indicative.

that said, ryan i don't think your stuff makes sense. the only reason prp giving the gun to smurf instead of sinani would have been "claiming scum" is if sinani had been non-vanilla mafia. however, your path to town losing relies on prp giving a gun to sinani tonight and sinani using it - ie, sinani being vanilla mafia. those two are incompatible.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
April 03 2013 18:28 GMT
#2920
On April 04 2013 03:15 Hapahauli wrote:
If we lose this game on power roles, then w/e.

We found the scum, and if the setup prevents us from killing them over and over again, then I don't really care.


the problem with that is, we actually had really good power role usage. Marv and I each blocked scum KP with our one-shot roles each night. There has only been one scum NK the entire game.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
April 03 2013 18:45 GMT
#2921
Or I guess zero if it turns out prplhz is town.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
April 03 2013 18:52 GMT
#2922
I still kinda think prplhz should shoot sinani. Why does the fact that Ryan might have reason to kill town with his powers change our calculus? His claim being true and him being scum have no difference except that if his claim is true we don't need to kill him to win.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
April 03 2013 18:59 GMT
#2924
but we know sinani is mafia. we want him dead asap so he stops shooting townies? I don't see the difference?
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
April 03 2013 19:08 GMT
#2927
but he can't kill any more if we leave him alive and lynch him than he can if we kill him tonight. he can kill hapa for free at any time, and hapa is the last person left he can kill aside from his one night action.

If we leave him alive, and prplhz kills sinani and the game doesn't end, then we can be sure that he's mafia.

If we leave him alive, and prplhz doesn't kill sinani, then we most likely have a prplhz/sinani scum team. In that case, we have to try and work out some deal with ryan where he doesn't kill any townies tonight, then we lynch sinani, then he kills some masons but leaves hapa alive, then he kills hapa right before the lynch on prplhz, securing both town's and his win conditions.

Finally, there's what I think is the most likely scenario - if we leave him alive, and prplhz kills sinani, then the game ends. I think "three scum plus one townie with an anti-town win condition and a shitload of KP" is stupid, but makes more sense for a setup than "four scum, one of whom has a shitload of extra KP", plus I'm kind of leaning towards agreeing with Keirathi's analysis from the last page or whatever.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
April 03 2013 19:09 GMT
#2929
On April 04 2013 04:05 marvellosity wrote:
it actually raises the question of why he hasn't day-vigied Hapahauli this cycle.


if he is mafia, then the reason not to day vig hapa is that prplhz would be town and would night vig him asap.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
April 03 2013 19:19 GMT
#2933
On April 04 2013 04:10 marvellosity wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 04 2013 04:08 strongandbig wrote:
but he can't kill any more if we leave him alive and lynch him than he can if we kill him tonight. he can kill hapa for free at any time, and hapa is the last person left he can kill aside from his one night action.

If we leave him alive, and prplhz kills sinani and the game doesn't end, then we can be sure that he's mafia.

If we leave him alive, and prplhz doesn't kill sinani, then we most likely have a prplhz/sinani scum team. In that case, we have to try and work out some deal with ryan where he doesn't kill any townies tonight, then we lynch sinani, then he kills some masons but leaves hapa alive, then he kills hapa right before the lynch on prplhz, securing both town's and his win conditions.

Finally, there's what I think is the most likely scenario - if we leave him alive, and prplhz kills sinani, then the game ends. I think "three scum plus one townie with an anti-town win condition and a shitload of KP" is stupid, but makes more sense for a setup than "four scum, one of whom has a shitload of extra KP", plus I'm kind of leaning towards agreeing with Keirathi's analysis from the last page or whatever.


there's no guarantee prplhz's gun would kill sinani. None whatsoever.


okay in the hypothetical situation where prplhz is town and sinani is vanilla scum, then say we lynch sinani tomorrow and he flips vanilla scum. Next night, prplhz kills ryan, and we still win because prplhz plus either you or I are still alive even if ryan kills all the masons somehow.

Or, if scum NK's prplhz and he flips town, we know to lynch ryan tomorrow, and we still win.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
April 03 2013 19:20 GMT
#2935
Basically though, the fact that ryan didn't shoot any masons last night, when he could have done so essentially for free, makes me think he's very likely to be town. That means we need him alive, purely for numbers reasons.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
April 03 2013 19:23 GMT
#2938
le sigh.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
April 03 2013 19:24 GMT
#2940
so this is a counterfactual, but if we had seen two kp last night and one of them was on a mason, we would still have lynched smurf today.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
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