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On February 27 2013 11:57 Dienosore wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2013 11:45 thrawn2112 wrote:
dienosoe let's walk though that summary of kei's play
Here are your main points about keir, taken from that bottom paragraph:
"Other than a bit of back and forth banter mostly discussing dueling policy, he has kept a relatively low profile"
"The only real aggression shown has been directed towards a scummy looking Thrawn"
"Overall, I'd say he has been playing it overly safe, if anything."
Those things are not suspicious? wtf
They are only suspect because of how boring and mundane they are. It either means he is scum trying to blend in or is just a low impact towny. Right now, because of my read on Adam and the assumption that scum wont duel themselves so early in the game, I'm left with the conclusion that Keir is town.
So by your logic, a scum Adam, that was under zero pressure, not in danger of being lynched at all, decides to call a duel on a semi-lurker and put himself up for a lynch as a result?
When my alternative, as scum, would have been to sit back and let everyone else go at it and stay out of the limelight.
Think about why I am doing this and what my alternatives were. There's only one smart answer and a stack of dumb ones. I've said it a dozen times now.
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On February 27 2013 12:16 Dienosore wrote:
@Adam: If you really were under zero pressure and not in danger of a lynch, then why not let Thrawn and Keirathi duel it out? I'm 95% sure that's the way the duel was heading until you jumped in. Why put yourself in danger like this?
Asked and answered. Read my filter.
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On February 27 2013 12:18 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2013 12:03 Adam4167 wrote:On February 27 2013 11:57 Dienosore wrote:On February 27 2013 11:45 thrawn2112 wrote:
dienosoe let's walk though that summary of kei's play
Here are your main points about keir, taken from that bottom paragraph:
"Other than a bit of back and forth banter mostly discussing dueling policy, he has kept a relatively low profile"
"The only real aggression shown has been directed towards a scummy looking Thrawn"
"Overall, I'd say he has been playing it overly safe, if anything."
Those things are not suspicious? wtf
They are only suspect because of how boring and mundane they are. It either means he is scum trying to blend in or is just a low impact towny. Right now, because of my read on Adam and the assumption that scum wont duel themselves so early in the game, I'm left with the conclusion that Keir is town. So by your logic, a scum Adam, that was under zero pressure, not in danger of being lynched at all, decides to call a duel on a semi-lurker and put himself up for a lynch as a result? When my alternative, as scum, would have been to sit back and let everyone else go at it and stay out of the limelight. Think about why I am doing this and what my alternatives were. There's only one smart answer and a stack of dumb ones. I've said it a dozen times now. I'll ask again: are you 3rd party?
No.
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On February 27 2013 12:24 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2013 12:20 Adam4167 wrote:On February 27 2013 12:18 Acrofales wrote:On February 27 2013 12:03 Adam4167 wrote:On February 27 2013 11:57 Dienosore wrote:On February 27 2013 11:45 thrawn2112 wrote:
dienosoe let's walk though that summary of kei's play
Here are your main points about keir, taken from that bottom paragraph:
"Other than a bit of back and forth banter mostly discussing dueling policy, he has kept a relatively low profile"
"The only real aggression shown has been directed towards a scummy looking Thrawn"
"Overall, I'd say he has been playing it overly safe, if anything."
Those things are not suspicious? wtf
They are only suspect because of how boring and mundane they are. It either means he is scum trying to blend in or is just a low impact towny. Right now, because of my read on Adam and the assumption that scum wont duel themselves so early in the game, I'm left with the conclusion that Keir is town. So by your logic, a scum Adam, that was under zero pressure, not in danger of being lynched at all, decides to call a duel on a semi-lurker and put himself up for a lynch as a result? When my alternative, as scum, would have been to sit back and let everyone else go at it and stay out of the limelight. Think about why I am doing this and what my alternatives were. There's only one smart answer and a stack of dumb ones. I've said it a dozen times now. I'll ask again: are you 3rd party? No. Then why can you not promise you won't pull such a stunt again? Show nested quote +On February 26 2013 21:15 Adam4167 wrote:On February 26 2013 19:23 Acrofales wrote:
Adam: if you're town, you're a selfish douche who is not playing in town's best interest. I will reevaluate you, but I really feel like policy lynching you for playing like this. I will now fight my instincts, because I don't think policy lyncing idiots is a good idea, but that's the way I feel right now. Well, I am town and you can call me whatever names you please, I give not a shit. I cant even promise that this wont happen again if I survive this cycle. <snip> You have owned up to it being an anti-town move already. If you know that, why are you not able to promise you won't do it again?
Because I don't have faith in the 'lets force two other people to duel' policy. Are we really going to go through all this again?
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By that logic iam, you should want to kill everyone, to generate the most 'information'.
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Survival is important to every alignment, so that's irrelevant.
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When did I say I wasn't prepared to die?
Whatever, this pointless. Ill post my thoughts on other people when I get back from the gym.
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My reads are almost done, you can discuss them, then decide what to do after that.
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You asked what do 'we' do. I'm telling you what to do. Wait and discuss what I have to say.
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Adams list of reads. Read them now. Read them again later after I flip.
Oatsmaster
I've not hidden the fact that I think Oats is town. Ill repeat it again because I still see people attacking him when time could be better spent on other people.
In LIX, Oats rolled scum and Marv correctly Identified him as scum pretty swiftly. He lingered around a bit because of a quirk in the setup (him being made bodyguard), but eventually conceded when it was apparent he was done for.
Look at it from his point of view. He's just seen marv obliterate his entire scum team in a faceroll in LIX. Now, hypothetically, he rolls scum in this game again, and the first thing he does is begin attacking the guy that correctly identified him as scum in the game previous?
I think not. There were easier targets for a scum Oats to latch onto and pretend to be useful. Attempting to hide from marv until his death N0 is clearly the better move here for an inexperienced scum player.
Now look at it from another perspective. Oats being town this game. Oats has just seen marvs destructive power romp a mafia team, and wants him to do it again, so he starts to question "why isn't he doing it again?". This is the far more likely of the two scenarios.
His backflip on my calling of the duel, which he initially cheered on, is completely understandable. More experienced players are chastising me for it and he doesn't want to go against the grain.
Oats will flip town if you kill him, I am almost certain.
Snarfs
People are questioning Snarfs alignment, and I consider it a waste of time.
His first post, proclaiming town, just came off as so damn sincere. He's rolled mafia 3 times in the previous 3 games and he's finally excited to get back to what he does best (and what I think he does best) - being town and hunting scum.
He asks many questions and is generally curious about finding scum. Yes he's been less than active, but so what, when he has been here, he's been making sense, acting logical and been open with his reads as they come to him.
Snarfs will also flip town if you kill him.
Iamperfection
Town. He literally blurts out his reads as he sees them. This is vintage iamp town play.
He's confident and not afraid to shove it in your face - link
Do not waste time considering him as scum.
cDgCorazon
Most probably town. He's remained consistent with his 'hatred for heroes' throughout this game, which is mainly why I called him emotional (something he didn't like). He's gone after Sylencia, again, something I believe is an emotional response because Sylencia called him out for his play in previous games.
He also wasn't afraid to bash heads with Yamato when it came to it.
Posts like this - link - just look very town to me.
There are other people that are far more likely to result in a scum-flip.
Sylencia
Yeah this one will be controversial. Fuck it. I think he's town.
Look at his first post. link
He opens the game by confronting cDgCorazon over his piss poor attitude. This is confrontational, and he doesn't care.
He speculates a bit about third parties, which says townie paranoia to me. I don't feel scum are likely to do this as they fear being accused of making idle speculation on the setup.
Again, here, he confronts me about "the game not being all about me and my reads". He's clearly got the towns interest and the interest of the game as a whole in mind when he's making this post, and I suspect if he were scum, he wouldn't have tried to sway me off my warpath.
I don't see scum here. Yes he hasn't done much, but what he has done hasn't been malicious.
Alderan
Probably town.
His first post is great, accusing Deino for the same things I saw, also taking a shot at snarfs. I find scum generally like to tunnel a single person, especially new scum, so coming out with multiple suspicions always looks good in my books.
He is happy to butt heads with Acro and iamp (two well respected players) over the use of the double lynch.
I don't really get a sense of fear out of his filter, something I'd expect from his number of games played, if he were scum.
Thrawn
Thrawn is another probably-town.
He seems to be acting in a logical and sensible manner, telling people when they're 'reaching' - here and here
He asks a lot of questions, trying to get everyone's opinion on a subject, while also volunteering his own.
He continues to refocus people on the current problem at hand, the duel, when others are wandering off-track. His continual refocusing of people onto Keirathi when they're getting side-tracked on my meta looks very good to me.
His scum meta is to literally afk out of a game, which stands at odds with his current filter.
Hapahauli
Hapa, I read as maybe-town.
I'm a bit miffed that he's taken a bit of a back seat in this game and hasn't been as forceful or as damaging as he was in Witchcraft. Id say his play lines up a lot more with that of Hero mafia, where he was town, but struggled a bit to establish it.
Still, he asks good questions, such as asking marv to expand on his thoughts of Cora. He's being logical and using his brain here and here.
Unfortunately, he's defended two people that I have scum reads on (Deinosore and Zarepath). Maybe his reads are wrong. Maybe my reads are wrong. Both are possible.
Id probably consider lynching him if any of my scum reads manage to flip town.
Acrofales
Here's where I'm torn. Like Hapa, Acro took mostly a back-seat to day 1, which I find unlike his play in Chrono. Granted that was 3rd party play, but he was playing as pro-town as possible, so I just consider it a town game for him.
He asks good questions, tells Yamato and Cora to stop shitting up the thread, and isn't afraid to voice his opinion.
Unfortunately, he says not once but twice that I am not playing to my scum meta, yet calls it 'too early to tell' in regards to my alignment. He theorizes that my scum play has gone off the rails after the absolute pasting I got in Hero via Palmar, which I will grant is a possible conclusion.
His bloodlust in wanting both myself and keirathi dead has me concerned, he does seem more interested in punishing my 'bad play'.
What scares me is that all of this isn't out of the realm of possibility for his scum play.
I'm conflicted on this one, see what he does later.
Yamato and Keirathi
I lump both of these together because I honestly believe they're most probably going to be the same alignment. Scum.
Keirathi i've already gone over and recapped, find it in my filter.
I originally believed Yamato to be town, but his backflip after my calling for a duel gave forced me to reconsider. He called for the duel, wanted Keirathi to hang, got what he wanted, then didn't want it anymore.
Lets look at this hypothetically from multiple angles:
Yamato-scum, Keirathi-town. In this situation, Yamato has no cause to backflip his reads. Adam's come along to wipe Keirathi out and a mislynch is secured for Yamato and his scum team, so why draw attention to yourself by 180'ing your reads. Unlikely.
Yamato-town, Keirathi-scum/town. He had a scum read on Keriathi, seems to want him dead, and someone he claims to have a 'pretty sure he's town' read on is coming along to make that happen. I really don't see much of a cause for a read-flip here. It is possible, but not as likely as...
Yamato-scum, Keirathi-scum. He busses Keirathi due to his low activity day 1, expecting Keriathi to go into a duel with someone like Thrawn, who he also had a mafia read on and can contrive some logic to make Thrawn more scummy than Keirathi, ridding town of thrawn and saving Keriathi in the process. Insert 'bull-in-china-shop' Adam. Someone he's claimed a town read on has now called a duel against someone he's claimed a scum read on. This is a huge problem as it forces him to back flip both his reads in order to save his team mate. I find this to be the most likely situation.
Hate on it for being an association case, whatever, these are my thoughts.
Deinosore
Scum. I've discussed previously. Initial post was shit, wishywashy, did nothing. Since has been stalling and is yet to provide anything of worth.
Needs to go ASAP.
Zarepath
Zarepath has been good enough to post two list-posts worth of reads for us to look at, so lets look at them.
This post
Is a summary post and does very little to further the scum hunt. He commentates for close to 3 paragraphs on Yamato, Hapa and Thrawn before brushing all of them aside and attacking Sylencia for being afk. If Sylencia was his top scum read, I feel like it should have been placed at the beginning of this post and opened with, as its the point he feels most strongly about, not buried under 3 paragraphs of rubbish.
his second reads post
Again, another post of summaries and commentaries. Not a single alignment given, yet he mentions 8 people and labels it "reads and suspicions". This wall of text is about as padded as you can find, concluding nothing, accomplishing nothing.
I think he has a great chance of flipping scum.
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Right, I meant his second post, specifically, this one
Also, this post here post. Does not think that me being stupid and Keirathi being useless is a good enough argument to kill both of us, and wants to see significant evidence of scumminess. Why ask for people to produce something when you can just jump on guilt free because im 'stupid' and keriathi 'useless'.
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Anyway, after the gym and 3 hours of filter diving, i'm exhausted.
I put these up before someone has the chance to hammer me and I don't get to say my piece.
Ill be back tomorrow morning, approximately 12 hours from now. Assuming i'm not dead.
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Keep movin', movin', movin'
Though they're disapprovin'
Keep them dogies movin'
Rawhide!
Don't try to understand 'em
Just rope, throw, and brand 'em
Soon we'll be living high and wide.
My hearts calculatin'
My true love will be waitin',
Be waitin' at the end of my ride.
Rawhide!
HYAAAAW!!!!
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On February 28 2013 10:55 Oatsmaster wrote:
And all the scumbuddies bussed the hell out of keirathi.
Alderan, why were you so concerned that a double lynch was happening? There was still like 8-10 hours to go or more.
Plenty of time to see a switch.
Also, you pushed it so hard then when keirathi flipped town you were suprised? Like what? Then why did you push keirathi over adam SO HARD when you thought that they were both town?
Oats, This information is all readily available in his filter:
He had a light town read on both of us.
He vehemently disagreed with the use of a double-lynch.
He pushed for Keirathi to die because I was showing more effort - in his mind, the lesser of two evils.
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And it seems hes already beaten me to the punch.
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O.O
Double lynch is like a no lynch. Except both people are dead. So nothing like a no lynch.
Why would two people he had a town read on both dying be 'ok'?
You aren't making any sense.
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In his position, with a town read on both duellists that some loose-cannon has just called - I would be thinking damage control.
I mention this specifically earlier when Cora asked me about it:
On February 25 2013 13:28 Adam4167 wrote:
In your hypothetical, Id kill whoever was displaying the least value to the town, as in nomination mafia.
We aren't all going to agree with every lynch, and there will come a time when you may have to choose between two people you have some form of a town read on. If we all unanimously agree on all our reads then either a) our reads are wrong because the scum are agreeing with us, or b) the scum team is so inept that they got clean swept.
Because keirathi was doing jack-squat, he valued me higher than Keirathi and thus to prevent two townie deaths, he just wants to kill the more useless one and only have one townie death - Keirathi.
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If you genuinely thought both people in a duel were town, and you sat on your hands, just to see them flip, I'd take a good hard look at how you're playing this game, because that's about as useless as someone could be.
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Hapa was one of the first to back my play, call you double-lynchers retarded and vote Keirathi.
There are plenty of people that look worse than he does.
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On February 27 2013 11:33 Dienosore wrote:Late day at the office. Got back about an hour ago and caught up on the thread. I promised an investigation into the duelers, so here it is. Adam4167 + Show Spoiler +
Timeline:
- immediately busts into the thread with a vigilante disposition and challenges me to a duel.
- begins to argue with marv
- cuts me down
- prods Corazon a few times, calls him uninteresting, then drops him
- tells Zarepath he's given out reads on several players, when actually he has done very little other than accuse me of scum and clear Corazon.
- clears Oats
- supports Thrawn/Keir duel.
- threatens Keir with a duel
- clears Thrawn
- defends his stance a bit more, then snaps a duel on Keir
- general posturing, says his mafia meta is lurky and passive, calls Yamato delusional
- reinforces that his play isnt mafia motivated a few times.
- outright claims town
Summary:
I have to admit that I am a bit biased due to our previous interactions, but I can't shake the feeling that this guy is scum. He seems to be trying to cause as much chaos as possible, then once all the shit has been slung, reinforces over and over again that he is town. He also seems to be exclusively picking on the weaker less experienced players in the game. I don't think I've seen him outright challenge any of the vets, other than town marv (and keir now, of course). It's true that he has been more active this game, which directly goes against my previous lurker meta reads on him, but this is also something he has self-identified and harped on in the thread a few times... It's like he is almost begging us to believe that his activity is a clear indicator of his township.
Keirathi + Show Spoiler +
Timeline:
- disagrees with Thrawn's stance to just 'let things happen as they will'
- says Thrawn is currently his biggest scumread
- puts suspicion on Adam due to his rogue bravado
- tries to advance our dueling policy
- says he is willing to duel Thrawn
- argues a bit more with Adam about dueling policy
- gets called out by Adam
- general defending
Summary:
As I said earlier, I was completely surprised by Adam snapping on Keir. I've gone through Keir's filter a few times since the duel was called, but I still can't find anything that sticks out as obviously scum motivated. Other than a bit of back and forth banter mostly discussing dueling policy, he has kept a relatively low profile. The only real aggression shown has been directed towards a scummy looking Thrawn. It's true his activity has been a little slow, but not so much that I'd see any reason to raise any alarms. Overall, I'd say he has been playing it overly safe, if anything.
So with that, I feel compelled to cast my vote now. Considering how the game started, I don't think it's going to surprise anyone. ##Vote: Adam4167
After this guttertrash analysis, and the resulting flip - Deino goes into the duel tomorrow or D3 will be the shortest cycle in TL history.
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EPT
