TL Mafia LIX - Page 11

On January 21 2013 09:41 yamato77 wrote:
The main thing is that I don't think Chez is trying to be unreadable this game.

Most games he is trying to be that way because he doesn't want mafia to shoot him, but this game he seems to be playing straight up which makes him way easier to read and understand.

So the attack is baseless and scummy to make. Chez is not a bad candidate for mayor.

On January 21 2013 10:02 yamato77 wrote:
The fact that you took extra special attention to blowing off Chezinu makes me think you simply want to discredit his candidacy for reasons I have yet to hear from your mouth.

On January 21 2013 11:26 yamato77 wrote:
@Bugs

Your only qualification for him being town is that he seems to 'give a fuck' about the game, but I'm not sure I see his particularly caring attitude after he realized he wasn't getting elected to mayor.

I'll think about you guys' prplhz lynch idea but I hate sitting on the idea of lynching someone who isn't posting to make it controversial.

On January 21 2013 13:29 yamato77 wrote:
Prphlz seems similar, though I don't know him as well. What I do know is that the guy doesn't post a lot and he doesn't read blatant town so it is easy to pick on him because no one is going to disagree with you. He may very well be mafia but nothing he's done screams scum to me.

On January 21 2013 22:31 yamato77 wrote:

I suppose I do have a penchant for ignoring lurking players, hm.

This post is insightful, and definitely something I have a hard time believing a mafia player to make. They would much rather me continue to be destructive and stupid.

I have conflicting opinions of the two players you want to lynch. On one hand, they are being scummy on their own, as is evident to me at this point. On the other, they do seem like rather easy targets to pick on when they are town, which makes me doubt their true alignment, and consider meaningfully the implications of their flip on the players that are pushing them.

I want to make sure I hold you guys accountable for these lynches, if you are indeed elected. While I don't disagree with them on the basic premise you put forth, I am highly suspicious and paranoid about the alignment of these veteran players, especially given that I know Toad and Bugs to be good scum players. Perhaps this is the bias I am confirming here.

For now I think I feel confident enough in you being town to give you the mayoral seat. What I don't want is Toad or Vivax as sherrif, so that is where I am going to use my vote for influence. Would anyone necessarily be opposed to me getting that position?

On January 21 2013 11:51 yamato77 wrote:
The only people I'm interested in voting for are Austin, Gonzaw, Chezinu, and maybe FiveTouch (but he's a special case).

I am not voting for Vivax, Toad, Djo, or any other random person running.

On January 21 2013 11:51 yamato77 wrote:
The only people I'm interested in voting for are Austin, Gonzaw, Chezinu, and maybe FiveTouch (but he's a special case).

I am not voting for Vivax, Toad, Djo, or any other random person running.

On January 24 2013 16:16 yamato77 wrote:

This post of Oats, along with other things like his willingness to give out reads, his overall activity level, and his fairly unnecessary (if mafia) case on Gonzaw, makes me believe that he is town.

The fact that he's continued to pursue his read on Gonzaw today is quite telling to me. When he posted the case at night, I believed he would have done so with the idea that it was cheap town cred to do something like this at night when there was no lynch on the line. However, today I see that he's fairly invested in the idea that Gonzaw is mafia, something that I feel a lot of people are at the moment.

Basically, if you think Gonzaw is mafia, Oats is far likelier to be town.

Plus, I agree with WBG's logic regarding the BGs, and not lynching them at the moment. Unless you are absolutely certain Oats is mafia, I do not feel like it is worth it to lynch him today. That's my thought on that situation. I think he might be town, and I'm not sold on lynching him yet even if others believe otherwise because he, if town, is valuable protection for our elected roles.

On to my updated mafia reads:

If I take seriously the idea that Oats is town, I have to consider the possibility that Debears is not. Debears' only contribution is a case on Oats, which is quite weak. Mafia debears would want Oats lynched, because that would mean that mafia gets to shoot into both Toad and FT tonight, or at any point in the future. While this would instantly out his as confirmed mafia, I'm not sure how confident I am with the idea that mafia wouldn't trade one of their own for our two elected roles, especially the mayor. Plus, people would be content to sit on the idea of town debears until the mayor/sheriff gets shot, which is quite useful. It's basically lynch immunity.



This post, and many like it, show that debears is fairly preoccupied with the idea of Bodyguards and their potential protection powers. When I was mafia, and I was attempting to bluesnipe, one of the quickest tells you can pick up on is who seems preoccupied with blues in general, or a specific role such as doctor. Debears may have already has the idea in his head on Day 1 to make this sort of play as mafia, to sub himself in as a BG and use this "unlynchable" status to his advantage.

Aside from this, debears has been fairly inactive, and hasn't pursued his scum reads very strongly. He posted a case on Gonzaw (that had him as slight scum, rofl), and then backed off of it later. He has a "case" on Oats, but he earlier posted this:



So we know he doesn't want to lynch Oats. Who does he want to lynch? Annul. Why?








He gives zero reason. He just calls him "scummy". I don't like this sort of thing at all. The speed at which he voted for annul also to me indicates that this is a mafia vote, because he did it early in the day and with zero prior mention of annul. These four posts are the only ones he even mentions annul in at all, and they've all been in day 2. Very weird to me.

In that last post he also says he'd be willing to lynch BKE, but he's never mentioned him before either, and indeed doesn't even bother to provide a reason. So what about prphlz? He supported that lynch day 1, right?



That's his only mention about his own read on prplhz. All of this I believe is indicative of a blendy mafia mindset, something I find pervasive throughout his filter. Not many of his reads seem original to him at all. His low activity suggests not wanting to be in the spotlight. I don't believe he's actively playing the game in a way I think town debears would, because town debears is characteristically more convinced of his own reads, a la Hero Mini where he was hyper aggressive day 1 in pursuing his target.

Now, for the same reason WBG gave for not lynching Oats, I don't think we should lynch Debears either. But if I had to pick a mafia out of the two BG's, I would actually pick debears. Oats is greener to me.

So, who else do I think is mafia, and which of them do I want to lynch today?

Vivax could still be mafia. While a lot of the vets have previously had him as town, even they are less certain of this idea than they were before. However, if he is mafia I don't think he's going to get any better and we will have more information to lynch him with at a later date. Unless he continues to be completely anti-town for the rest of today, I don't think he's a particularly good lynch, and I don't think many other people do either.

Annul might be mafia, as he's played similar to Vivax today, but I actually feel less confident about lynching him because of how easy it is for everyone to call him town. There's literally been zero resistance to lynching him today aside from other people giving out their own mafia reads and trying to get them lynched. I don't think a single person has called him even somewhat town, though I may be wrong because I've only skimmed the last ten pages. I don't like lynching him today.

Gonzaw is an interesting idea.



He has a few of these types of posts in his filter, where he softdefends a player (often Vivax actually) and generally gives weak reads. I don't feel like he's taken many strong stances with his reads this game. Even his opposition of the prplhz lynch was fairly weak.



Also, he has a few of these posts in his filter, where he seems particularly preoccupied with his own image, and how town perceives the things he's doing. As I just finished typing in my analysis of another mafia player in NMM XXXIII. preoccupation with town's perception is a mafia tell, as they are more likely to care about how they are perceived than town.



He even goes so far as to defend his spammy nature, something that I, as town, feel completely unmotivated to justify. While this is indicative of how I feel on the matter, that I just post what I think at the time I think it, I do not feel the need to justify this mindset. However, Gonzaw obviously does, which again leads me to believe that he is concerned with his image. This idea is also reinforced with the concept that running for mayor and being active on D1 are two easy ways to get people to have cheap town reads on you.

While this is not a strong mafia tell, it is what I have managed to find in his filter after a short bit of diving. I am fairly confident in the possibility of him being mafia for these reasons, along with those that the rest of town has posted. I will resume my filter dive of him tomorrow, and either confirm my own bias or perhaps see something that might change my mind.