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Every man for himself Mafia - Page 5
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
....not that entertaining, specially if nobody pays attention to me >_> Also the only players that 100% bullshitted me were the other 2 townies, figure that out. PS: I didn't know this was a PM game until I replaced in lol | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
If he refused to vote well we know we had no chance to do anything but maybe with the pressure he could give in and cast 1 vote, then me+dandel quickly hammer it (if it was on toad for instance) | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
On January 14 2013 06:42 Dandel Ion wrote: I don't think I bullshitted you much. Well, not more than anybody else at least. Well, iamp and clarity just didn't even communicate with me and Toad told the whole truth apparently (even if I didn't know it at the time) You seemed to intentionally call me the yak (knowing I wasn't) and you half-claimed jester. When you said "Contact the Medic and PGO to see if they care" I was like "lol why is this guy claiming Shrink to me?" which was too obvious since like you accused me of being yak so why would you claim Shrink to me which made me think you made a subtle jester claim to me (and thought I was real yak or something) | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
On January 14 2013 06:44 Dandel Ion wrote: Don't underestimate the YOLO. It is strong with this one. (and apparantly with gonzaw too - yolo brofist, bro) lol yolo-fist To be honest I was kind of fed up with the game and wanted it to end. If you just tell me "we can lynch scum today!" I would instantly jump to that if it can end the game and I still have a chance to win it (by lynching yak). There was a day+night cycle I didn't PM nor posted in the thread at all I think. It was that boring. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
On January 14 2013 06:45 JieXian wrote: :D you were asking for it actually hahaha at that time I was supposedly teaming up with toad I was hoping the real lyncher would like think "okay, I can win tomorrow with town, let's team up" and actually PM me or someone else about it. You were the only one doing so so I was like "yeah this guy is legit, also he's not jester/yak because of his play/other people's play". I didn't really care though since I knew (even if I thought you were lyncher) that like you were no use to me after you refused to "cooperate" I just wanted to chat though  | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
On January 14 2013 06:47 Dandel Ion wrote: I just told you i didn't want to be converted :O You just took it as a jester claim. Didn't feel the need to correct you. I thought you were "obviously" faking your yak read on me trying to troll me or bullshit me with the alleged "jester claim". Like, I would not see that post coming from anybody except the jester lol. Yeah, yak converting shrink and dying is "bad" for yak but I thought everybody knew the yak would get the medic to protect him by then (so even if you were "converted" the yak would live because of medic save). Also the shrink "claim" was too obvious to be true. At one point I was thinking: "Oh, yeah maybe he's real Shrink, and he's subtly telling me he's shrink and he's trusting me, but wants to hide appearances by being "angry" at me and calling me yak". But then you kept trolling, and Jiex said you claimed yak to him so that I thought "yeah he was obviously bullshiting me, that was a jester claim". | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
On January 14 2013 06:51 Clarity_nl wrote: The lyncher can't win with town unless his target died during the night edit: Like, if I had helped you guys we would've lynched toad and I would have immediately lost. I was hoping the lyncher's target was any of the other 2 guys instead of me. 66% chance was pretty good to follow up with that plan. So me+the other townies would just form a town circle, say "okay, X (your target) visit gonzaw the PGO", after he dies, if yak didn't already kill/convert (which he wouldn't if the medic leaked info into our circle from the yak), it's 3 townies with 5 players, enough to lynch the yak and have the lyncher win with all townies. That's 4 players winning, which I think is like the maximum amount of players that can win simultaneously. Meh seemed pretty good in paper to me, and I thought the real lyncher would think so too. In the worst case I wanted the lyncher to claim and tell me his target at least >_> | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
On January 14 2013 07:06 Clarity_nl wrote: It's not a terrible plan, but yeah since you were my target, no can do. Your plan also made you quite clearly pgo which was quite a pain for me. Well yeah, that meant that no matter who of the other 2 townies your target was, I just tell them "visit me", instead of trying to find out who's the real PGO. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
On January 14 2013 07:30 Toadesstern wrote: it's actually only a 33% chance and not 66% because even with the lyncher turned into a VT you can't win once 4 player scenario is reached. The only way for you to win as town + lyncher is for mafia to shoot the 1 specific guy n1 (let's just call the night with the first death n1). So it really was gg unless I shoot the jester (why should I...) and it wasn't possible for town to win. If his target was one of medic / shrink you'd have to lynch me in the 5 player scenario, which is still incredibly hard to do, just look at how many people thought I was mafia endgame... I mean your plan revolves around the lynchers target suiciding which can't work because it will automatically bring you to 4 player set-up unless you get INCREDIBLY lucky and the mafia accidently targets the same game. If the lyncher target is shrink, the medic can save your shot or you can shoot the PGO, or you can shoot the shrink If the medic was his target, then the shrink can save your conversion, or you can shoot the shrink You sure all of that amounts to 33%? Let's see. First, let's assume you wouldn't know who is who (i.e you aren't sure who of Clarity/me/Dandel/iamp is jester/lyncher). Let's imagine X is your chance to shoot someone instead of converting (also let's assume you convert and don't shoot at the same time), Y is your chance to convert, and 1-X-Y your chance to not do anything (hold your shot) The chance of the lyncher target being medic/shrink is 50% (assuming it's not jester). If you convert: So you convert with chance Y, in which case you have 1/4th chance to convert anyone in particular. If lyncher target is medic: shrink WILL save himself (not the PGO since he dies). You have thus 1/4th chances to convert the PGO, the only role you can convert to try to win in this scenario (can't convert medic because he dies, can't convert jester because why the hell would you? you lose anyways, can't convert shrink because he shrinked himself). This means we have 1/2*3/4 chances of "winning" If lyncher target is shrink: Shrink will save PGO of course. This means you can ONLY convert the medic (can't convert PGO because he's shrinked, can't convert shrink because he's dying). Again, 1/2*3/4 chances So the chances for us to win if you convert someone are 3/4 If you shoot: You have X chance to shoot. Again, let's assume you shoot randomly. You have 1/4th chance to shoot a target in particular. If lyncher target is medic: Then if you shoot the jester we win, if you shoot the medic nothing happens and we win, if you shoot PGO you die, if you shoot shrink then we "lose". That's 1*1/4+1*1/4+1*1/4+0*1/4=3/4. Therefore it's 1/2*3/4 If lyncher target is shrink: Then if you shoot the jester we win, if you shoot the medic we "lose", if you shoot the shrink nothing happens and we win, if you shoot PGO we win. That's 1*1/4+0*1/4+1*1/4+1*1/4. Exactly the same as before, 1/2*3/4 So the chances we win if you shoot someone are 3/4 If you don't do shit: You don't do shit, so no matter what happens next day is 3 townies vs you vs jester we win. Thus the chances we win if you don't do anything is 1 So the chances we win are P(we win)=3/4*(X+Y)+1-X-Y= 1-1/4(X+Y) If you WILL do something, then X+Y=1, thus P(we win)=1-1/4*1 = 3/4 Since we assumed that the lyncher's target was not me (and assuming it couldn't be the jester for balancing reasons), then P(we win)=2/3*3/4 which is 50%. Maybe not as high as 66%, but at least higher than 33%. I guess you could say you would not "shoot randomly". Well, even if we assume you leave the jester out of everything (i.e you won't shoot nor convert the jester if you know who he is), then it's 44% That honestly feels way more than the chances town had in this game initially. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
I thought everybody was as in the black as me lol | ||
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gonzaw
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gonzaw
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gonzaw
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Or were you just as lost as I was?  | ||
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gonzaw
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gonzaw
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
Tell the TL admin to make it so logs from a PM game are posted automatically once the game ends! We bring so much traffic here they must listen to us! | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
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