EPTMario Mini Mafia - Page 5
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
debears
United States2516 Posts
| ||
|
debears
United States2516 Posts
When u fall 9 pages behind in the filter during d1, you're gonna have a bad time. So iamp, why dp over thrawn? When thrawn comes in and wonder votes dp | ||
|
debears
United States2516 Posts
| ||
|
debears
United States2516 Posts
Can you plz drop defending yourself if you are indeed jk. We'll only have limited time with you if you arent mafia. Plz scumhunt sirzzz. Any defense on your part right now is wasted | ||
|
debears
United States2516 Posts
Off my phone, I see thrawns only real read is on dp....none others Not that hard to make one read and stick with it After all, thrawn said there was a lot to comment on today | ||
|
debears
United States2516 Posts
On November 15 2012 01:00 Clarity_nl wrote: Huh.... You realize that's exactly what I said, right? Eh. Not really. But all the same, I think bh trusts me, so maybe he'll agree  | ||
|
debears
United States2516 Posts
I would appreciate if you go ahead and make a read. Irl busy? That's fine. Surely u must have some contribution to make | ||
|
debears
United States2516 Posts
I came back to the thread way after bhs claim. There's nothing I can add. Therez no counter claim (if there was a rb claim yhen we'd be talking). What else is there to mention? He has a breadcrumb. Also, why would scum claim jk so early d1? Why gambit one of your team on something so easily counter claimed? Especially when bh not at risk for beibg lynched at that point Is it a dumb claim If he is? Yes. Its even dumber as scum | ||
|
debears
United States2516 Posts
Will address hapa in a secs. Lolololol How long is lynch from now? | ||
|
debears
United States2516 Posts
On November 15 2012 02:28 Hapahauli wrote: + Show Spoiler + Catchin-up catchin-up: @ SnB Why are you voting the claimed JK? I understand that his claim makes little sense from a town perspective, but it makes even less sense from a scum perspective. Claiming JK in that circumstance is just about the worst thing you can do, not to mention just about the worst role to claim. If he's alive after a cycle or two, it's probably worth looking into him. But today, he's a pretty bad lynch target. Regarding DarthPunk He's very uncharacteristically inactive for his town play, but the same applies to his scum play. I hate having no solid opinion on him, but he's very null to me. His inactivity is not alignment indicative. He's been rather whiny as of late too, but that's pretty unusual for him as either alignment as well. Lynching him is flipping a coin, and I have stronger scumreads than him atm. Regarding Hopeless1der I haven't considered him as much. All I know is that he has a propensity for lurking regardless of alignment. However, I think he's town because of the attention he's getting from debears Regarding debears Pretty convinced he's scum at this point, especially after his last few posts: On November 14 2012 14:15 debears wrote: If you look at my posting before the iamp stuff, I was focused on Hopeless. However, Hopeless failed to post much after that, and he still has. I feel like his lecturing + lack of posting is much more scum indicative than iamp's posting, hence my vote on hopeless and not iamp 1 And about the one liners. It was the first 14-18 hours of d1. Not much to go off of for big cases, especially with thrawn, dp, hopeless, kickstart, and crossfire contributing minimally. Wow that's 5/13 players. Hey thats more than 1/3 of the game!!!!!!!!!!!! Amazing Hapa, why are you focusing me over the above stated 5 players?2 Also Hapa, why are you attacking easy targets: S&B, Kickstart, Me(after i go afk). 3 What happened to your iamp scum read hapa? 4 to I see that you override his in game play with meta on d1. Very interesting 1) I'll get to the iamperfection thing below. I think it's pretty clear that iamperfection was his top scumread. 2) His first instinct when defending his "lack of substance" is to point fingers at 5 other players to deflect attention from himself. I find this horrendously scummy. 3) Again, deflecting attention from himself by accusing me of going after "easy" targets. This isn't coherent given that he just accused me of not going after 5 easier targets pointed out above. In addition, this is just a further deflection, and he's trying to paint himself as this helpless, "easy" target when he is anything but so given the player-group we have. 4) I'd understand him questioning me if he had a scumread on me, but he doesn't. He just floats suspicion out there and since this post (~10 hours ago), he still hasn't called me scummy, pushed his opinion, or done just about anything in relation to my alignment. As for my read-change on iamperfection, we've played A LOT of games together. His meta is very distinctive between his town and scum play, and his actions so far point towards his town meta regardless of his 180. Don't trust me? Ask marv. Don't trust marv? Look at all the analysis about his meta in GSL III Mini. Now debears is really insistant that Hopeless is his top scumread instead of iamperfection when he was questioning iamperfection. This is full of shit. He votes Hopeless1der here for lurking/uselessness - typical early D1 case: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=381440¤tpage=15#282 Debears other substantial post on Hopeless1der is here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=381440¤tpage=23#447 Look how remarkably civil he is to Hopeless. There's no strong "scummy" rhetoric or anything suggesting that Hopeless is a strong scumread of his. He throws a bunch of soft-ball questions at Hopeless which shows to me that he's not all that committed to his read. Now look at his posts on Iamperfection: On November 14 2012 03:04 debears wrote: So marv 1) iamp changes from a town read (pretty convincing one early d1) 2) sheeps on a case when he changes 3) sheeps on a case based off of lack of activity/helpfulness in the first half of d1 with a 180 read That's not strong reasoning. Iamp knows it. That's why he goes out of his way to state the contradictiom. Explanations Town- idk why Scum - trying to look like scumhunter On November 14 2012 04:38 debears wrote: Iamp's switch on Z-Bo is alarming to me. Let me explain why Town read on Z-Bo + Show Spoiler + On November 13 2012 09:50 iamperfection wrote: zbos explained it in his post would have been very risky in my view. On November 13 2012 09:55 iamperfection wrote: its what i think so whatever. Zbos scum is gone put himself out there like that i dont think so. Alright, these two posts seem pretty strong saying that Z-Bo is townie. Note the word use "very risky for scum" and "scum wouldn't put themselves out there like that" On November 13 2012 10:33 iamperfection wrote: guys a town zbos could lie if he was blue He could be scum he could be vt. I'm inclined looking at the comment that he was just writing what he thought and that it was probably true. He just had a slip of the tongue so i'm actually inclined to think it was actually the truth. It didn't look like to me as a scum making a post in order to put a claim together. Boom i got two town reads already which you gonna do mafia?????????? Here he states outright that he has a town read on Z-Bo Note that his town read is a null tell to me. Suspicions of BH ----> Agreeing with BH Next, iamp becomes suspicious of BH + Show Spoiler + On November 13 2012 11:31 iamperfection wrote: so uh this guys is like not helping right now and i expect better from him since i hold him in high regards. i say we force his hand. ## Vote Blazinghand Especially since he made it obvious that he was here with his "lol" Note the timestamp. 30 minutes later, this comes out On November 14 2012 00:04 iamperfection wrote: LOL dont you dare talk down to me you little punk. You criticize me when YOU were the one being all terrible with your first couple of posts. Being all herp derp i don't have to contribute even though interesting things were happening at the time. Give me a break But that being said ## Unvote Your case on zbos reminds me more of your play from rockband more then the way you were being early on. Lokking at what zbos has posted especially this crap which bh pointed out If you look closely debears never said anything about being able to tell if marv is town or not from an anyltical standpoint he made it pretty clear that it was not the case and that he had said he was simply going to vote for him no matter what. Zbos totally misrepresents what is being said here and if he has the courage to throw a vote out for it you would have thought he would have read clearly what he was in fact voting for. This post here is also another pile of crap and its the iamperfection rule of whoever defends me is probably scum. If he cared at all to check in gsl III where i was scum which he played in lollololol i thrw around 2 strong town reads early on he should know this and the fact that he isnt willing to do any legwork in order to find out is more evidence not in his favor. This post is also extremly wishy washy on everything he said. I know i said early on that i thought the miller claim was more of a town tell but well i think zbos actions speak louder. so ## Vote zboson Note the two changes here 1) BH is suddenly town because of one case 30 minutes after iamp's original suspicion 2) Z-Bo is suddenly scum because of BH's case Note his poor reasoning. His first point is BH's reasoning. His second point is the "imperfection rule"...Really??????? Also, remember that it was and is the first half of d1 at this point. Why is he jumping on Z-Bo for two fucking posts? Why is he jumping on a case from a person whom he thought was suspicious 30 minutes prior? See how poor that reasoning is? When you switch from a town read to a scum read, you're reasoning should be pretty good. An apparent guilty conscience Ok. What does this line from his vote post on Z-Bo tell us about iamp? 1) He cares about how the town is viewing him 2) He doesn't believe his reasoning is that great for his vote -note the "well I think his actions speak louder". It's a weak statement. Not a strong one, (a strong one) which should be warranted when you change your read from town to scum in literally no time Point 1 is a null tell. Point 2 doesn't make any sense from a townie perspective. What are your guy's thoughts??? Look at how much stronger he's attacking iamperfection. He's much more convinced, he's much more direct, and he's really really pushing the iamperfection case. He mentions several times that he doesn't see any townie perspective from Iamperfection - rhetoric like this is completely absent in his dialogue with Hopeless. My vote is square on Debears. He's using emotional and deflectionary defenses, and his voting makes no sense with his suspicions. 1) The whole problem you have with me is based on the assumption that Iamp was my top scumread. I never stated he was. I had my vote on Hopeless. Why do you keep ignoring that Hopeless has posted literally nothing in terms of scumhunting Can I remind you of your own scumhunting rules? On August 15 2012 03:13 Hapahauli wrote: I wanted to comment on this because I feel a lot of the current town guides don't answer this question sufficiently. I'll likely do a writup on my thought-process during the game (scum-reads and whatnot), but for now, to your question (Take all of this FWIW - I've played a grand total of 3 games). Index: 1) Common Knowledge is Worthless 2) Ask the Right Questions - "uncommon knowledge" 3) Find a Way to Answer These Questions Using Your Playstyle Common Knowledge is Worthless I feel that a lot of the "scumhunting" in newbie games is overly based on common knowledge. Due to the guides, newbies go into games thinking that all it takes to find mafia is to find a couple of common scumtells in someone's play. So on Day 1, the indecisive, inconsistent, and emotional player gets lynched on the basis of these "common" scumtells. 95% of the time, they flip town, a bunch of townies blame each other, and the cycle repeats. The problem here, is that these "common" scumtells aren't always accurate (and argubly are rarely accurate). If everyone reads the guides and knows what these tells are, how can they be used to reliably scumhunt? In fact, scum will often consciously avoid these tells and run the town around in circles. If you want a good example of this, look at Newbie XXI. My mafia teammates simply tunnel suspicion on a player or two without getting involved in the game at all. People should have been questioning them, yet on the basis of "common scumtells," they were viewed as townies until very late in the game. It's worth saying that common scumtells may not be completely useless in Newbie games - I used these tells to catch my first mafia in Newbie XX (Hopeless1der). In addition, Promethelax was showing some common scumtells in this game - fingerpointing all over the place with little reasoning. However, all these tells will go out the window when you move into real games. Ask the Right Questions So if common scumtells are useless, then how do we scumhunt? The answer is to ask the right questions - this is the list I have so far:
Is this player genuinenly trying to scum-hunt? This is the #1 thing you should ask yourself when making a read on a player. If a player is sheeping on a popular suspicion or isn't providing much analysis, you need to question them and figure out if they're scum-hunting or not. All three mafia players fell under this player category this game. All too often, these types of players (see DrWiggles and Mufaa in XXI) are let off the hook because their play is "clean." + Show Spoiler + Of course this can go even deeper than this. If someone is "scum-hunting" in a different way than in a previous game, you should question their motives. If someone is tunneling a player too much even though they seem like a bad townie, you should question their motives. There is no "check-list" that you can use to answer this question. Is this player playing with information? This is a question I use to determine a bad townie froma mafia player. Think about how you think as a townie - you're always unsure of your reads, you commonly switch suspicions, and you're generally suspicious of everyone around you. This generally leads to very inconsistent play among townies who can't write or express their ideas very well. Yet these townies often end up getting lynched. When you see inconsistent play, put yourself in a player's "shoes" and try to understand how they think. For example, look at Lvdr's play in Day 0.5 - he posted a lot of one liners and sheeped suspicion on a lot of players, yet I thought he was town. Why? Because he was thinking like a townie! However, a Mafia player knows exactly who and who isn't town. Mafia can actually be very sure of themselves because they know exactly what's up. A player that takes forceful and confident opinions can very well be mafia, yet some players give this "confident and forceful" play as a strong townie read. Keep your mind open to all options and really try to figure out a player's mentality. What story is this player trying to tell? It's always important to understand the context of a player's actions rather than the actions themselves. It's easy for a player to make a case on individual inconsistent actions (Mafia do this quite often - see Promethelax and GoodKarma being obsessed with Sideni mixing up names in the thread). However, these cases are not always accurate unless you can put these actions into context. I actually defended Calgar on this basis in Newbie XXI. Even though I was mafia that game, I think my logic was pretty sound: On July 19 2012 12:18 Hapahauli wrote: Here are my thoughts on the Calgar case: tl;dr - I think Calgar is very townie. When looking for suspicious posts, its important to take the entire context of a person's play rather than individual posts. For example, I can dig through Jingle's filter and build a case on him for "suspicious and inconsistent play," yet Jingle is one of my very strong townie reads. Why? Because his play in full context shows a reckless player who tries to generate discussion - he's bound to have inconsistent/suspicious play based on his posting style alone. In the case against Calgar, I'm seeing all his inconsistent posts brought to light while ignoring the context of his play and any pro-townie evidence in his favor. So here's a question; has Calgar's play hurt or helped us this game? I'd say he helped us quite a bit. He generated a lot of discussion and got a lot of lurkers to talk. In Jingle's case, this is interpreted as him bandwagonning suspicion on several players before casting a vote on iamperfection. Calgar's fingerpointing play appears townie in full context. Another point Jingle makes is his "me-too" bandwagonning on my suspicions/ideas. Again, in full context, this isn't suspicious. I assume that Calgar thinks his strongest townie reads are Jingle and I, and he's been actively trying to make peace with (and between) us. Just take a look at this post: What part of this even makes sense from a mafia perspective? Why the hell would he attempt to break up a fight between us? Other than his last post to Jingle, he's been very active in trying to get on good terms with his top townie reads and stopped us from our distracting fight. This is 100% pure-colombian townie. As a final point, while I see "inconsistency" in Calgar's play, I don't see any any attemps to lie, mislead, or deflect. Inconsistency is indicative of reckless townie play - misleading play is very very mafia oriented. I don't see any indication of the latter at all. So before the town goes and bandwagons Calgar, ask yourself; is he really the most suspicious player here? Does he have any mafia-motive? In my opinion, no and no. Find a Way to Answer These Questions Using Your Playstyle The last step is playstyle - you need to find the best way for YOU to get the information needed to answer these questions. In my case, I like aggressively questioning players and ripping the answers out of them. Others like sitting back and "observing" the thread before chiming in with their reads. Many take a balance between the two styles. There are advantages and disadvantages to different methods, but what's important is that you find a style that works for you. WOWOWOWOWOWOW Hapa is going after someone "scumhunting to hard' instead of not scumhunting, despite his list of rules. What's the #1 thing you look for Hapa? OH YEAH SCUMHUNTING DOH. 2) I pointed out 5 other players because it makes no sense for you to attack me for "scumhunting too hard" when we have 5 lurker-doodles who aren't contributing, at least up to that point 3) Check my meta on why i'm questioning you. I question people who vote me for dogshit reasons. Honestly, I think Hapa and Hopeless are scum | ||
|
debears
United States2516 Posts
| ||
|
debears
United States2516 Posts
You my dawg | ||
|
debears
United States2516 Posts
| ||
|
debears
United States2516 Posts
On November 15 2012 03:03 marvellosity wrote: why didn't you comment on BH's claim? On November 15 2012 02:28 debears wrote: Marv I came back to the thread way after bhs claim. There's nothing I can add. Therez no counter claim (if there was a rb claim yhen we'd be talking). What else is there to mention? He has a breadcrumb. Also, why would scum claim jk so early d1? Why gambit one of your team on something so easily counter claimed? Especially when bh not at risk for beibg lynched at that point Is it a dumb claim If he is? Yes. Its even dumber as scum Why didn't you read? You been criticizing me and now you didn't either. Thanks | ||
|
debears
United States2516 Posts
On November 15 2012 03:04 strongandbig wrote: AT: "this is a dumb town claim but a dumber scum claim" I have yet to see why this is true. I addressed in this post why BH specifically would make this fakeclaim as scum right now. To summarize, it's a combination of reasons: he really enjoys trolling, and he knows how good of an idea making an unverifiable fakeclaim is as scum under pressure in the current TL meta. your argument "if he's alive in a few days" is terrible. if, in theory, he was town, there would be no reason for scum to kill him above anyone else; they could just roleblock him forever now that he's claimed, and he's taking enough heat that town doesn't get any kind of "confirmed townie" advantage from having him alive. all that said, debears is still my second lynch choice. I guess I should say more about him than "kenpachi rule", but I won't right now because I don't have time. That's cool. Second scum read for no reason. Good scumhunting. Here's my problem with lynching BH today. Why the fuck would the scum risk a teammate on a jk claim, out of all claims this early d1? 1) They have no/little power roles so they don't believe there are many blues this games. Even that is a retarded assumption because the roles on one side don't necessarily affect the roles on another. a. They are a weak scumteam and believe they can't win by pure ability b. They feel like fucking around with a fakeclaim c. They wanted to out the jk/rb day1 d. BH felt honestly at threat even though he has 2 teammates that can help him e. They want to give town plenty of time to counterclaim Those three reasons are dogshit reasons to do it. I see number one as most plausible 2)There is no 2 for mafia. cuz nothing else makes sense Why would town BH claim so early? 1) He's being dumb 2) He doesn't feel like fighting off a lynch 3) He can help eliminate a lynch option day 1 when he knows he fucked up Both views are retarded. The mafia view requires WAY more assumptions. Ockham's razor brah | ||
|
debears
United States2516 Posts
On November 15 2012 03:10 Hapahauli wrote: Oh debears is claiming scum. Cool. Cool Hapa give a meta read on me man. I wanna see what you can make up brah so I can easily refute it | ||
|
debears
United States2516 Posts
On November 14 2012 09:41 Hapahauli wrote: I'm in school on weekdays - it's impossible for me to be more "present" than I currently am. As for BH, I DID comment on him: He claimed shortly thereafter, so it was pointless for me to comment more. On to the rest of your stuff: Your Town Reads: Agree on clarity and iamperfection. Clarity seems much more engaged this game than his Newbie XXX game. Iamperfection for reasons previously stated. Disagree on marv. I don't think he's done anything alignment indicative. He's definitely capable of doing this as scum, even though he played a more dispirited game last game. Completely null on him. Your Null Reads: I'm putting SnB into the town category (again POSSIBLY the SK, but I don't want to speculate too much). His play so far is such a far departure from his scumplay. Crossfire is null (duh) I'm getting more scum vibes from Thrawn. He's made one pretty coherent post and just peaced out. He could be afk for RL issues or something, but given that he's never played a scumgame (to my knowledge) and that we have a sudden deviation in his play, the connection is there. Your Scumreads Disagree with me obv, I'm town dawg As for debears, he was one of the players willing to follow me on iamperfection, and he made one of those "overkill"/"overexplained" cases when voting him: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=381440¤tpage=29#575 It reads as really artificial and a way to cover his bases. Agreed here. I'm firmly null on DarthPunk. Hopeless is lurky, but that's normal regardless of alignment for him (null as well). Where's that meta read bro? | ||
|
debears
United States2516 Posts
On November 15 2012 03:13 Hapahauli wrote: Geezus christ you actually buy that shit BH? Good lord you're better that. I'm going after debears because he's NOT scum hunting. HE IS NOT VOTING FOR HIS TOP SCUMREAD He half-assed pushed Hopeless, put his vote on him, then tunneled the hell out of iamperfection without ever making a commitment. Where in the fuck do I even mention "scumhunting too hard?" That isn't the damn premise of my case. You're deflectionary, your voting makes no sense, and now you're voting for your attacker + lynch-bait. Die scum. The premise of your case is that you ASSUME that iamp was my top scumread when my top scumread was afk. Why wouldn't I fucking push someone else while he's all afk? Hapa's way better than making a case off bad assumptions | ||
|
debears
United States2516 Posts
On November 15 2012 03:04 debears wrote: But seriously consider Hopeless. Cuz honestly I see them both likely scum. At least Hapa is a strong town player and he's active. He'll have more time to slip Hey Hapa read scum | ||
|
debears
United States2516 Posts
On November 15 2012 03:19 Hapahauli wrote: It's not an assumption. I outline really clearly why that's not the case. You half-assed tunneled Hopeless, softballed him questions, and somehow are calling him your top scumread. You tunneled the motherfuck out of iamperfection and explicitly stated you saw no town motivation in his actions. Yeah that's fucking town debears right there. Yeah it is. lecturing brah is something I hate as town. Look at my last game ffs. your meta reads off on me. Or you don't have one. Idk which | ||
| ||
