Mario Mini Mafia - Page 17

On November 18 2012 15:25 Djodref wrote:


@ Clarity

I think that Hope is Vig even if we obtain the proof that there is a SK with a mass claim.
Are you familiar with the C9++ setup ? If not, I recommend to have a careful look at this page. It's quite interesting and I think this is something you have to know if you want to be a better player and/or if you want to host a game sometime.

Anyway, here is the most interesting part regarding the setup, given our current situation. To sum up, the scum roles are a function of the number of "T" letters you obtain when you pick 7 letters in between the following letter probability set.
T = 1/2
D = 1/10 (in our game, the "D" letter gives us JK roles)
V = 1/10 (one-shot Vigs only)
M = 1/10 (mason and miller roles)
B = 1/20 (town RB roles)
C = 3/20 (you need two "C" letters to have one fully operational Cop in the game)

Please note that one of the letters in our rolled set for this game is M and that one other is V (Hopeless). Let's take a look at the different possibilities for the scum roles.

Scum Roles

TTTTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer
a 7 "T" letter set is impossible because we have at least one "M"
TTTTTT = Goon + Godfather
impossible because we would already have won the game
TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer
This setup is possible only if one of BH or Hopeless is lying and is the remaining SK. I think we can safely discard this possibility unless we are at lylo with BH or with Hopeless. Moreover, there are only 2 mafia in this setup and no more blues on top of Hopeless and BH, even if one of them is lying. MVTTTTT or MDTTTTT if you want.
TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker
impossible setup because of Bowser flip
TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
impossible setup because of Bowser flip
TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
I think that this is the setup we are in (and it is the most likely probability-wise, something like 40%). It leaves the room for 2 or 3 more blues on top of Hopeless, information that we can be confirm with a mass-claim.
T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
This setup has roughly a 15% probability to happen. It can also be confirmed with a mass claim but it would leave us in a dangerous position with all the blues revealed for the SK and the remaining scum. But we would know for sure that there is a SK and start looking for him seriously. Anyway, it is less likely to happen.
0 Ts = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
This setup has only a 5% probability to happen. We would have enough blue to outright solve the game.

Is there anything stil unclear ?
The more I think about it, the more I think that mass claiming at the end of the night is our best move but I need everyone participation. I beg you to seriously consider it.

On November 18 2012 17:59 Djodref wrote:
@ debears

I disagree, it could be a good strategy for a possible SK to retain his night kills until we manage to find the last scum.
What does make you think that a possible SK would kill tonight ?

On November 18 2012 18:02 Djodref wrote:
By the way debears, I had questions for you that you didn't answer. I would appreciate you to find them back in my filter and to give me your answers. Thanks !

On November 18 2012 18:21 Blazinghand wrote:
i'm currently hanging out in drojef's filter and I can't find the questions either >:|

On November 18 2012 18:40 Djodref wrote:
@ debears

Shit, I have just missed you. Anyway, it was a long time ago but I still want have some details about what happened in your head during the exchange between S&B and BH at D2. Especially I want to know why you posted this.

On November 18 2012 18:50 Djodref wrote:


@ debears

1)That's actually a good point. I don't think that hopeless could be SK even with another kill because he killed Crossfire and that would have been against a SK interest. But I've just realized that there was no way for a SK Hopeless to know for sure that Cross was scum when he decided to kill. By the way, would you yourself doubt Hopeless claim if we have 2 kills again tonight ? I remember that Hopeless was on your radar during D1.
2)That's also a good point. But it depends on the strategy you would choose as a SK. I don't know about it...
3)I disagree with this one because a possible SK would not know who the last scum is better than us. He would have no other thing to do than to scumhunt hard while not killing anyone and hope to survive until lylo. You don't have any guilty conscience if you didn't kill anyone, right ?

On November 18 2012 18:51 Clarity_nl wrote:
I've explained my thoughts on last minute shennanigans. I did this when marv tried to jump on cross too, which is not much of a defense I guess since he flipped scum too.

I'm town. That's my defense. I never aggressively defended hapa or cross, I was against emotionally lynching someone.
Read debears' case on hapa, it WAS omgus.

On November 19 2012 00:51 Clarity_nl wrote:
debears did you believe zbo was scummier than snb?

On November 19 2012 01:36 Djodref wrote:


@ debears

1) I agree with you on this one. Would you say that your D1 history with Hopeless is over then ?
2) and 3) You got me convinced that the SK is going to kill tonight and maybe have double-stacked his kill on marv yesterday, if he exists of course.

On a side note, you said that you wanted to auto-lynch S&B tomorrow but I'm not sure if you mentioned other scum reads lately. What do you think about BH post on Clarity ?

On November 19 2012 02:06 Clarity_nl wrote:
Okay Djo, I just wanted to make sure, thanks.

@ debears





And all of that led to.....



"Zbo you are a liability and more likely scum than snb"

?????? I don't understand.

On November 19 2012 02:40 Djodref wrote:




@ debears

I'm a little sad that you switched from S&B and BH to S&B and Clarity. Could you tell me what changed your mind ?
Are you dropping BH for real or just for the moment ?

I've been thinking about BH lately and I think that we can get him setup-wise at the end if he is a bad guy. I mean, SK or scum, he would have to go at LYLO and his fake claim could be proved because the rightful blues would have been revealed at this point (dead or claimed blues). What do you think ?

On November 19 2012 02:44 Clarity_nl wrote:
In fact, I even pointed out that you calling zbo town because he had both cross and hapa on him was dumb, and you responded like this: