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I'm awake. I'd just like to state that if you look at my post carefully, the WIFOM is not with regards to Dandel. It just contains my reasons for not entirely condemning Djo just yet.
In my opinion my case against Dandel stands entirely on its own. That being said, debears did indeed point out some interesting points with regards to Dandel's meta which I need to consider.
To be honest, I'm getting the distinct feeling that even IF Djod is scum, his scum buddies almost has to be roco + nackh, or one of them and one of the players that has been playing "safe", although who that would be I have no idea.
Lastly, while I think we can't discount the possibility that Djod is SK and that both him and scum/Rad shot the same target, I find it extremely unlikely. I have no idea why an SK would shoot either kush or sylver.
I think I need to consider just what our chances would be if I'm to go along with a Djod lynch over Dandel. I'm almost at the point where I'm starting to get worried that both of them will flip green - however unlikely that is - and scum has been fooling us all along. Although if that is indeed the case, I don't think we stand much of a chance to be honest.
I'll get back with some non-ramblings soonish, I really just wanted to point out that you can't just look at my case against Dandel and dismiss it just because I'm WIFOMing wrt Djod.
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Also, I'd actually like to know just what the win conditions are for a potential serial killer. Do they really need to win by being 1v1 with scum and night killing them? Since that seems to be implied by the "town wins if all mafia are dead" in combination with "serial killer wins if he is the last person alive".
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Alright, thanks for the info.
I guess that means we need to consider nackh a player, but Roco at the very least doesn't "count" as it is right now.
Nackh did say that he was going to try and post something today, although he wasn't exactly convincing when he stated such. I'm hoping he at least tries to post something.
As of right now my top scum read is still Dandel as I think his attitude towards kush is extremely incriminating. Declaring right off the bat that he's not going to give someone the benefit of the doubt in my mind clearly means that he will hold everything against him, no matter what. That's just not pro-town play at all.
What I really need to consider however is just how scummy I think Djod(and to some extent Inig) really is. I'll get back on that subject later today, hopefully well before lynch.
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EBWOP with regards to marv's edit: Doh, ok, then ignore my second sentence.
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Rad, then what about nackht? I'd say they are both doing the exact same thing. Which is remaining in the game while giving us no chance whatsoever to get a read on them.
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Assuming we don't get much/any more information from Nackh/Roco. I think lynching them is pretty much just a gamble. I see no reason to believe them to be any more scum or town than random chance at this point.
Which means that assuming you're vigi Rad, we have a 66% chance of lynching town if we go for one of them. 33% chance of scum while better than a D1 lurker lynch, it's not by much.
Basically, even though I'd prefer to lynch Dandel right now, I'd much rather lynch Djod or even Inig over one of the lurkers if it comes to a choice like that.
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On October 30 2012 00:55 nackhtjogger wrote:
Not sure about Dan or Djo, If you want to lynch scum I'd go for Cheesecake. I haven't read the whole thread yet though, so what do I know.
##Vote: Cheesecake
*hides as angry mob runs by wanting to kick his ass for reading so damn slow Yes, don't be afraid to share your thoughts. Please elaborate on why you want to lynch Cheese. I have some thoughts about cheese myself that I'd like to see if you share.
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Back, took a food + gaming break.
Ok, here's the deal with my stance on Djod. I've thought long and hard on whether or not I actually think he's scum. The problem I'm having is that while almost every time I think about it I conclude that I'm not convinced enough that he's scum, my reasons for thinking so always end up being WIFOM. Problem is, I read somewhere(I think a guide, or maybe a wiki) that when WIFOM always end up the same way, it may not necessarily be pure speculation. After all, I should be able to find tons of compelling arguments in either direction.
So basically, I've been reluctant to accept Djod as "confirmed" scum for that reason. However, while I think my Dandel case is solid(seriously, I'd especially like to hear what exactly you guys see him as, not just try and pick my argument apart, but explain to me what you think about him). In essence, if we assume Djod doesn't exist, why should we not lynch Dandel?
If enough people answer that to my liking, I'll get behind a Djod lynch, but the way you are all screaming WE MUST LYNCH DJOD NAOOO!!! makes me really wary that something is off.
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On October 30 2012 03:42 debears wrote:
Alsn.....
That argument has no ground.
How about this. Assuming dandel doesnt exist, why should we not vote djo? In my mind if Dandel didn't exist, we should lynch Djo. But that's my entire point, Dandel does exist, so that's why I'm torn.
Is your entire read on Dandel that he fits his meta and that your scum reads suspect him?
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On October 30 2012 03:55 nackhtjogger wrote:Scum #2 Show nested quote +On October 30 2012 01:01 Alsn wrote:On October 30 2012 00:55 nackhtjogger wrote:
Not sure about Dan or Djo, If you want to lynch scum I'd go for Cheesecake. I haven't read the whole thread yet though, so what do I know.
##Vote: Cheesecake
*hides as angry mob runs by wanting to kick his ass for reading so damn slow Yes, don't be afraid to share your thoughts. Please elaborate on why you want to lynch Cheese. I have some thoughts about cheese myself that I'd like to see if you share. Where are your thoughts about Cheese that you are so eager to see if I share? In my head still. I'm not certain that they would be very useful right now. But basically if you had just replaced in today I would probably consider you town right now. Problem is, you've been around for quite long so I don't really know what to think right now.
My thoughts about cheese have to do with him and Dandel calling out Djod. Problem is that without more information I can't really follow through on it. However, I wanted to know if you truly suspected Cheese or not. You suspecting him leads me to lean townie on you simply because he's a weird target to pick if you wanted to try and save your own ass.
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EBWOP: Ditto with regards to the last point and him suspecting me.
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debears, where did you go? I'd still like you to answer why I ought to not vote Dandel. Is your read on him anything other than meta + the fact that Inig and Djod are voting him?
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Nackh, if you're still on page 33(hopefully farther ahead by now) I'd really like it if you at least read through the thread and then gave us your preference for who you would like to lynch today. I realise that it's probably pretty overwhelming at this point but it would really help if we could get some idea other than your 2-3 posts which you now say are based on pretty old information.
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Also, what the fuck is up with Cheese stressing why we need to lynch Djod like the world depended on it, yet he still has his vote on Nackh after leaving due to a storm?
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Wait, nevermind, I read the vote post wrong lol.
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Just checking in quick, haven't had time to analyse Dandel's claim but for now.
##Unvote
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Ok, after thinking about it about the only thing I don't really agree with in your post is that his stance on kush is a townie trait. Sure it was controversial and I agree that's not something scum would want(draw attention to himself) but he really gave me the impression that he was intent on setting kush up as a lynch. In light of kush flipping green I just have a really hard time accepting that it's a townie thing to do.
That being said, if I accept that it was just him either wording things too strongly, or otherwise giving me the wrong impression then yea, I'd say Djod is scummier. In fact, I'd say the further along this day has gone the more Djod has been doing scummy things. I particularly agree with the idea that he jumped on my case as soon as I posted it as he didn't really seem all that concerned about Dandel before it. I just wasn't yet convinced that Dandel wasn't scum.
I guess I can probably post what I meant with regards to Cheese and Dandel vs Djod I mentioned earlier when I responded to Nackh. It was extremely weird to me how two people could draw such different conclusions about Djod. One of them was 95% sure Djod was scum, 5% SK(Cheese) while Dandel had pretty much the opposite opinion. It didn't make sense to me that if they had the same information, they would draw such different conclusions. For that reason I suspected that one of them was scum and one wasn't. With Dandel's claim actually looking quite believable, I'm beginning to question maybe I should have been more open about him and more suspicious of Cheese.
So, yea, here goes:
##Vote: Djodref
If Djod flips town, I swear I'm gonna break something.
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Rad, that's pretty unfair. Djod said he went to bed and probably won't be back in time to make a compelling argument one way or the other. You can't really count on him answering you.
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On October 30 2012 07:03 Rad wrote:
EBWOP: This was something that also really pissed me off about his end of night timing considering how long he was awake before day 1 lynch. Hm, I see your point. But isn't the lynch 1 hour earlier now? Or did summer time end yesterday without me noticing? :D
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On October 30 2012 07:45 Djodref wrote:
What are you gonna do when I flip green ? At this point I'm hoping that just wont happen. To be honest, if you truly are town I'd say you give us your best reads right now, because if you are, we'll need them.
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EPT
