Newbie Mini Mafia XXIII - Page 5

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

August 09 2012 04:06 GMT

#454

On August 09 2012 13:03 Lvdr wrote:
More plausible than yh then?

...what do you even mean here? Whether you are more plausible scum than YH? Of course it's too early to tell, but you're not helping your cause by posting those one-liners.

But tell me - what about your play so far hasn't been scummy?

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

August 09 2012 16:03 GMT

#475

Regarding YourHarry's "Town Read" on Me:

I get the feeling no one read my spoiler quote T_T
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&currentpage=21#415
"I'm joking of course, but given how much thought YourHarry put into his scum play for the last two days, I have high expectations of him if he's town. "

Looks like YH picked up on it and retraced it though, so all is back to normal. Getting to the recent wave of posting in a bit.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

August 09 2012 16:07 GMT

#476

Oh, and as for YH wondering why I didn't bring it up - I had originally thought YH included it in his read (hence quoting it when making his read). I realized this wasn't the case at the top of page 24. Also, from a town perspective (or mafia perspective - both really), there's no incentive for me to heavily challenge someone's strong town read on me.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

August 09 2012 16:21 GMT

#477

@YourHarry: Not understanding the FOS against Mkfuba for now - I don't think his case is bad (hence my suspicions earlier in the day), and is analysis is quite sound for a D1 case. I want to hear your views on his most recent case (the one with his vote on lvdr). Also, why did you go from FOS to Vote on him so suddenly?

@ Mkfuba: Good case, and much much better than the one on Prom from yetserday. I had the same thoughts on the "both mafia or both town" quote - it isn't how townies normally think. He doesn't consider the possibility of one of us being scum or one being town, etc.

For now, FOS Lvdr. He's behaving differently than yesterday in a scummy way. I won't yet cast my vote, because there is a possibility that he's just drunk.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

August 09 2012 16:43 GMT

#478

On August 09 2012 14:22 Axero wrote:
That doesn't mean Hapa is a townie. Scum know who eachother are, therefore Hapa could know your alignment and could be setting you up to get lynched. It's a good way to shift focus to someone else while also seeming like a townie.

It is also possible that they are both scum. Setting someone up as a sacrifice to ensure everyone views the other as a townie would seem like a very effective strategy.

Just my two cents.

(Post made from mobile so apologies for lack of quotes)

This post makes absolutely no sense.

Your first "theory":
YH is town and I am mafia. Somehow, my exchange with YourHarry is a ploy for me to get YH lynched. Hell I haven't pointed any suspicion at YH! How exactly does this theory make sense?

Your second "theory":
Mafia do not seriously bus each other early in Day 1. Maybe a mini-argument to distance themselves from one another (like the mini-argument between mkfuba and YourHarry early on D1 last game), but never any serious suspicion Hell I don't understand what part of our exchange constitutes any suspicion at all.

You have to explain this more Axero. Wild theories won't get you anywhere, especially if they suggest that you haven't read or analyzed the early-game exchange between me and YourHarry.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

August 09 2012 20:41 GMT

#494

@ ShadySands

Well surely there's something you can comment on after a few pages of posting. Does any behavior stick out to you? Any posters/posts that seem scummy/townie/etc?

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

August 09 2012 20:53 GMT

#495

So let's kick things off:

FOS iamperfection

I feel like you've been going with the flow so far this game. You haven't started any original suspicions and you've been alternating between criticisms of players and piggybacking off other player's suspicions. This is completely different from your town play in the aborted game, where you tunneled YH from day 1.

First you rail on YourHarry a bit...
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&currentpage=22#428

Then on Lvdr...
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&currentpage=22#435

Then on me on "changing my stance," whilst ignoring my joke spoiler...
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&currentpage=23#459

Then an FOS on Lvdr after mkfuba posted a large analysis...
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&currentpage=24#479

Then on Promethelax...
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&currentpage=25#481

Thing is, in all of these posts, he keeps casting idle suspicion on players. Furthemore, he's following the flow of the thread and never initiating cases/questions, simply following up on the questioning/suspicions of other players.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

August 09 2012 21:02 GMT

#500

Hapa: I'm glad you are here so that I'll have someone to talk to. Although given that you and I are both known for active scum play I won't be able to get reads out of your activity I look forward to getting reads from your play. What is your opinion of Dandel?

Nothing much to say on Dandel, as he still hasn't done anything. Like really - he's posted nothing of substance 24 hours into the day. I'm naturally suspicious of people who do not stick their neck out, but I have no grounds to FOS him or anything like that. For now, I'll stick with my suspicions against iamperfection that I recently posted.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

August 09 2012 21:58 GMT

#512

I just find your playstyle shift really really strange. You went from tunneling 1 player to questioning several over the course of one game. Furthermore, I'd understand if you were "getting people to talk" as you have said, but most of your questions have been piggybacking off of the suspicions of others. I'd be more sympathetic to your cause if you were willing to question someone off the radar, but as it stands, you've been following the flow of suspicion this game.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

August 09 2012 22:06 GMT

#515

On August 10 2012 06:05 Lvdr wrote:
@hapa I don't think the case you're making against iamperfection is really scummy.

link 1: iam clearly does not trust yh, especially given what happened last game. understandable.

link 2: he is looking for more information. yes he doesn't offer an opinion, but it seems like a null read, not scummy.

link3: as you said he missed the joke spoiler. null read.

link 4: confirms that he missed the spoiler mentioned in link 3 and shows a proportional amount of suspicion on me. reads town to me because mafia have no interest in encouraging me to mount a good defense.

link 5: follows his established pattern of encouraging others to put out more information and reads.

This reads as a very flimsy case and even a bit of a reach.

My suspicions don't deal with the individual content of the posts themselves rather the whole package. Iamperfection really hasn't stuck his neck out and has been questioning people who are under suspicion. He's asking questions and whatnot, but he's not taking strong opinions unless others take them (his FOS against you).

So while his individual posts are excusable, I find them suspicious in context. What say you?

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

August 09 2012 22:15 GMT

#517

@Lvdr
[QUOTE]On August 10 2012 07:02 Lvdr wrote:
@hapa - What do you think of my analysis of link 4 in your case?
I agree that iamperfection hasn't offered much of his own, but his play has really mirrored your own in terms of questioning many people.

For my reference:
[Quote]link 4: confirms that he missed the spoiler mentioned in link 3 and shows a proportional amount of suspicion on me. reads town to me because mafia have no interest in encouraging me to mount a good defense.[/Quote]

Again, I think you're missing my point. He only places his FOS after two players have done so. As far as his play mirroring my own - he is questioning, but again, his questions follow the other townie's suspicions.

But I'm curious about the conclusion you draw from his post; how does it read town? He takes an awfully diplomatic tone toward someone he is suspecting of being mafia no?

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

August 09 2012 23:55 GMT

#532

Un-Fos Lvdr and iamperfection

I'm pretty satisfied with Lvdr's activity and defense so far. In addition, he's going after lurkers (Sideni) and is actively defending himself. I see enough similarities with his town play from the aborted game to give him the benefit of the doubt.

As for iamperfection, I think I'm falling victim to confirmation bias on him again. My case was based around his "going with the flow," and his questioning of Promethelax kinda destroys that bit of it. I'm satisfied enough with his activity to lay down my case.

However, I do find two players very suspicious at the moment:

FOS Axero and GoodKarma
Both players have been pretty lurky so far; Axero with 2 posts and GK with 3. Furthermore, neither has contributed anything significant to the discussion.

GoodKarma's three posts have only to do with disagreeing with the lurker policy. He hasn't done anything else while everyone in the town is actively discussing/throwing around suspicions. I find his lack of posting very unsettling.

Axero has two posts, one fluff/introductory post, and another that idly points suspicion:

On August 09 2012 14:22 Axero wrote:
That doesn't mean Hapa is a townie. Scum know who eachother are, therefore Hapa could know your alignment and could be setting you up to get lynched. It's a good way to shift focus to someone else while also seeming like a townie.

It is also possible that they are both scum. Setting someone up as a sacrifice to ensure everyone views the other as a townie would seem like a very effective strategy.

Just my two cents.

(Post made from mobile so apologies for lack of quotes)

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&currentpage=24#478
As I pointed out in the link above, his ideas are fairly illogical, and it reads to me like a useless-post designed only to point suspicion.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

August 10 2012 00:34 GMT

#536

On August 10 2012 09:28 Axero wrote:

Show nested quote +

FOS Hapa

I've actually been pretty busy since the game started, but no I haven't made many posts. I'm sorting out my feelings on people and as this is my first game it's taking me some time to get used to it. However you are very quick to point to several people. The feeling I'm getting from you is that you're only being active to avoid suspicion. Seems like you're over doing it a little bit. Might be a snap reaction but it is how I feel at this point in the game.

So I'm suspicious because I'm... not acting suspicious? I wish I could reply to your suspicions, but they're largely based on your gut feelings.

You're also rather quick to respond after lurking for so long the second I call you out. Care to reply to my suspicions against you? Why have you been lurking? Also, I want some answers to my questions in this post:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&currentpage=24#478

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

August 10 2012 00:47 GMT

#539

On August 10 2012 09:44 Axero wrote:
Since the game started and I didn't know I'd be in it I had previous plans. I've been checking the thread and still trying to feel people out, but since nothing really had anything to do with me personally, I haven't replied. (Not the best play, but again, first game

)

So let me get this straight - your strategy going in to this game was to lurk until your name was mentioned, then FOS the guy who called you out for lurking?

As for your first criticism, those two statements I made were my response to YH, not actual suspicions against you, kind of just possibilities. But yes, at this point, it is my gut reaction to your actions.

In the middle of a game of DotA atm, so I'm sure this didn't answer everything you wanted. I'll respond in a bit.

Well hearing your "strategy" - you better have some damn good explanations for your play so far.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

August 10 2012 00:55 GMT

#541

@ Lvdr - me retracting my FOS was an attempt to focus on some lurkers. Lvdr has been pretty active and has put himself out in the open. I'll be looking very carefully at his filter (and all cases against him) tomorrow, but I find it counterproductive to rail on a player when many other players are already doing so. He has enough information out on the table, and I prefer getting information out of less active targets at this point.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

August 10 2012 01:03 GMT

#544

On August 10 2012 09:56 Axero wrote:

Show nested quote +

Haha, no I wasn't planning on lurking. I was actually going to go ahead with my plans without checking the forum at all, but someone coaching me suggested i still check.

Your Quicktopic coach told you to check the thread?

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

August 10 2012 01:06 GMT

#546

I hope your friend didn't tell you to make FOS's solely based on gut feeling - certainly there's a better reason for your FOS on me than that?

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

August 10 2012 03:55 GMT

#560

On August 10 2012 12:25 Shady Sands wrote:

Show nested quote +

I'm getting echoes of Golbat from XXII. Similarly bad play D1, resulted in a lynch of the Vigi. Since it's a newbie game, I think we should be a little nicer on the guy. It might be better for all of us.

I obs'd XXII, and Golbat wasn't NEAR this lurky D1. Golbat was fairly active (~1.5 page filter) and didn't play as bad as you suggest. Axero on the other hand has demonstrated anti-town mentality so far. He also mentioned he'd respond to my earlier post after he was finished with his DOTA game, but never got around to it.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

August 10 2012 04:05 GMT

#563

Admittedly I'm a bit concerned that he could be Synystyr 2.0. If I don't see Axero' response by tomorrow morning however, he is my strongest scumread at the moment, and will be getting my vote.

Since you're around, what do you think about GoodKarma's lurkiness? You were in XXII, and I'm curious what you think of it based off of GK's meta?

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

August 10 2012 04:21 GMT

#565

On August 10 2012 13:12 Lvdr wrote:

Show nested quote +

On August 10 2012 13:00 Shady Sands wrote:

On August 10 2012 12:55 Hapahauli wrote:

On August 10 2012 12:25 Shady Sands wrote:

On August 10 2012 09:47 Hapahauli wrote:

)

So let me get this straight - your strategy going in to this game was to lurk until your name was mentioned, then FOS the guy who called you out for lurking?

Well hearing your "strategy" - you better have some damn good explanations for your play so far.

Got it. What I was concerned with was pushing a newbie so hard that they end up in a situation where the more they try to defend themselves, the deeper the hole gets, and inevitably it creates a situation where they become the "easy lynch".

That being said I've been watching Axero too (if you read my earlier posts). He hasn't crossed the scum threshold yet but he is something I am keeping an eye on. But I want to get a neutral read on him before I start the pressure... I don't want my read on him to be colored by the fact that I am pressuring him.

There is also a similarity between Axero and Golbat last game: saying you have things to post without posting them.
Tough to read though: as always bad play is not necessarily scummy play.

If that was the basis of my suspicion on Axero alone, I'd agree. However, there's a couple of more things that concern me:
1) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&currentpage=22#423
In Axero's first post, he's very excited and happy to play the game:
... then all of a sudden he lurk lurk lurks, and openly claims to have not been reading the thread.

2) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&currentpage=23#460
He posts the above, which is filled with pretty terrible logic (mafia bussing people early on day 1, lol?)

3) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&currentpage=27#535
He posts an FOS on me based on vague logic and gut-feeling.

4) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&currentpage=27#538
In this post, he uses newbiness as an excuse for not checking the thread and promises to respond after his DOTA game.

So yeah, that's my case on him so far, and I just convinced myself to vote for him. If you'd like this in Wall-O-Text format, let me know. I think it's easier to read/understand for most people this way though.

##Vote Axero

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