Newbie Mini Mafia XXIII - Page 2

Kronen

United States732 Posts

August 11 2012 01:11 GMT

#838

psssh that music

... I'm listening to Brahms 1 while doing this write-up. *pfft*

You want epic death music? This is in honor of GK, our fallen Godfather... I give you the most dramatic death in the repertoire. This is the final scene from Salome where she, Salome, goes bat-frickign insane and kisses the head of John the Baptist immediately after demanding it be cut from his body. It was the birth of of the famous Strauss death chord at the 5min mark.

Kronen

United States732 Posts

August 11 2012 01:12 GMT

#839

EBWO(the damn link not starting at the right time). For the cliff notes version of the link please start at the 3:56 mark.... you'll get all the salient points.

Kronen

United States732 Posts

August 11 2012 02:00 GMT

#840

Write-up of A) inferences to take from GK's post, B) interest surrounding GK, and C) a tally of the votes leading up to his lynching:

A) GK's quotes:

1) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&currentpage=29#567
Sideni benefits most notably from an early post by GK (as would also the late Axero). The initial scum read was a stretch, but it's doubtful he'd attempt either a bus or a double-take against a fellow scum Sideni. This is reinforced by the second hamhanded vetting of the now vindicated Axero.

In context: this call out happens immediately after Hapa levels a cases against Axero. Axero might have been an after-thought or attempt at band-wagon.

2) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&currentpage=34#667
Yea... holy crap... He just fixated on these two characters and nothing else... That's just crazy. Good read Hapa!

And that's it.... wow... no posts

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I mean to make no overt suppositions in this post. This is just metrics and just data. I went through and tried to scour for everytime GK was mentioned. This is the fruit of that labor. Do with this data what you will.

Kronen

United States732 Posts

August 11 2012 02:03 GMT

#841

EBWOP: there is editorial content around the quotes section... apologies I meant for that to go in my next big post....

ugh oh well....

Kronen

United States732 Posts

August 11 2012 14:05 GMT

#887

Good morning all! Catching up on some reading and now I'm apparently the Scumread-OTM. I'm a bit torn by this, because I kinda feel this might be the best way to survive the night. That is to say, aiming to give the scum (and possible mistaken townies) that are pointing at me the idea that they might be able to mobilize a lynch come daytime could keep my head in place during the night.

@Hapa: would you like me to start defending myself, or can I just wait until day? I would rather just get on with my substantive posts.

I am not a blue townie and am less valuable in that respect, so maybe getting scum-killed would be a good thing.

I would urge a medic vote on Hapa. At this point, I figure the scum know that the medic vote is going to Hapa. If there were one person in this game to have medic protection it would be him. This also means, he's (sadly) not our Korean War vet. It would be so beautiful Hapa if you were the cop... hot damn. On the other hand, you're probably going to role-blocked if you're not assassinated.

Can the JK throw himself in jail? and also, I don't think jailing the goon would stop a night-time mafia assassination, buuut... if there's only one mafia left in the game and he/she is jailed, does that stop the night-time assassination?

I hope hope the JK is used to protect another Hapa strong-townie read such as lvdr or iamp.

Kronen

United States732 Posts

August 11 2012 15:12 GMT

#889

YH, you are so quick to lynch

. Calm down big guy. We'll get more information from tonight's action and then move forward from there. Go find YourSally and do whatever you do.

Unless I am mistaken that we don't lynch again during night. Am I correct that lynch votes happen at the end of the day period?

Also, I did edit and redact that last post a fair amount so that it wasn't role-hunting. You can turn it into a role-hunt if you want YH. There's a 1/9 chance that the jailer could jail the roleblocker, or there's a 1/2 chance the jailer could protect a high profile townie target from death. That's my rationale.

Stepping out for lunch date for the next 2-3 hours. I'll write up what I'm thinking when I get back.

--

On reflection: I'm sorry I got a little hot under the collar during this post YH. You, and everyone else, can judge an emotional reaction from me by this post. Cheers!

Kronen

United States732 Posts

August 11 2012 21:58 GMT

#920

Because this is just information chronologically ordered, I've decided to post this up before I post my analysis. I like to call it:

Sideni's March to the Scaffold:

Detailed chronology and links leading up to the almost-lynch of Sideni.

Kronen

United States732 Posts

August 11 2012 22:00 GMT

#921

Analysis part 1: (God I hope I get further before my nighttime commitment... running out of time)

Prom: The Potstirrer

Far and away the most suspicious of the people for many reasons: (Smallest first)

1) The late powerplay against Hapa.

This strikes of desperation. Honestly, Prome's thoughts about this being an elaborate bussing of the mob boss to garner town support occurred to me as well. So... instead of jumping out and making unsubstantiated claims, I wanted to get a tally of everything surrounding GK and his fall. See this thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&currentpage=42#840

Guess what I found? Little and less. There are straws there potentially that you could attempt to grasp at... and hell I even organized them for you if you'd care to read, but there are far more conflicting accounts than confirming.

2) I hate everything about this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&currentpage=32#624

In an effort to make up for lurking, he begins an epic sized thread with nothing but clouding language and conjecture. The first two paragraphs are nothing but throwing sand in the air.

Damn, now I have to take a step back every time I think you are scummy and try to decide if it is just because you annoy the hell out of me with your attitude or if you actually appear scummy. Still leaning red.

*snip

Iamperfection feels very scummy here, he plays on the emotional side to avoid making a case. He has stated that my posting feels 'weird' to him but doesn't have a case to make. This feels like it has a scum motivation: creating pressure on a townie without backing it up with a case or a vote. This leaves him open to jumping on a bandwaggon or not; town doesn't need to be wishy washy.

Misunderstood my fluffy sidenote as an attempt at undermining Dandel:

What was your aha moment? I don't get it from your post and I would love to know what you have learned, or think you have learned about our flowery friend.

In answer: + Show Spoiler +

I'm sorry you misunderstood. My sidenote has nothign to do with Dandel. I was saying Dandel's post gave me the persepctive to not fear death, because as a vanilla townie I will vindicated in the end.

The post continues, but basically there's no analysis in the post, just conjecture and spraying attentions any which way.

People on Prom's suspicious list at end of post in order of suspiciousness:

Sid (duh the vote)
Axero
Dandel
Lvdr
Shady
YH

3) Operation Deflection.

If we could please open to Page 3 of the Promethelax filter:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&user=251061&currentpage=3

This is where I'm getting the name. There isn't a post in this that wasn't designed to obscure the intentions of the group at large. The only saving grace in this page is that Prome doesn't discriminate and is willing to cast doubt on now named Mafia:

Mkfuba isn't here and I don't like it. But why only push him? There are a tonne of lurkers this game. Why are you tunneling one when Shady has been an active lurker, Kronen has barely posted, GK is "the champion lurker"

Why focus on just one of them?

But, this post comes suspiciously before GK's lengthy reiteration of Prom's vote for Sideni. (Almost like he knew the GK post was incoming...) It's worth noting that vast majority of votes on the bottom of the page (the ones that don't call for a recount) are designed to refute or challenge unvotes on now strongly suspected townies. There's one exception: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&currentpage=36#712 but even that exception springboards into further confusion and distraction when Hapa begins the hunt of GK.

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Summary and hypothesis:

Promethelax set out to obscure any notion and distract town efforts up until the final vote because he knew at least one of his mafia cohort would be unable to respond. When his time ran out, he cut his losses and mustered a makeshift and rushed defense. At this juncture he saw it as his only option to attempt to unseat a seemingly unstoppable force.

Personal note regarding the GK vote: Hot damn did we dodge a bullet. If GK had offered his login info to fellow mafia to respond even once on the lead-up things could've gone drastically differently. The biggest confirming factor in the lead-up to my eyes was the lurkiness and lack of self-defense. It's too obvious to jump into Hapa's redirect as mafia that close to deadline... The only way to refute would be GK coming back from the dead....

Kronen

United States732 Posts

August 11 2012 22:06 GMT

#924

Ugggh... typos you see as soon as you post haunt me.

For any glaring errors/omissions you see in either of please don't hesitate to let me know. Took alot of time today to marshal this effort... Has to be a more efficient way of collating that information than just flat out re-reading and time-stamping.

Kronen

United States732 Posts

August 11 2012 23:35 GMT

#934

@Hapa per your request:

mkfuba: My read of apportioned thought and being slow to anger shaped a large part of how I viewed the early game up until first night, perhaps to my detriment. It locked me into inaction in the final moments leading up to the vote. I shaped how I viewed the first day around the mkfuba case against lvdr, and largely respected how both parties handled themselves. While Lvdr and Dandel were engaging in the Sideni debacle, mkfuba was one of the few people who kept out and refused to speculate, earning brownie points from me. Granted, that's largely due to the ongoing spat between the fuba and Lvdr.

Fuba largely kept his nose clean on the lead-up to the final vote. I'm unable to read whether that was designed or not, so I won't speculate. And in the day since, I haven't found anything particularly objectionable or note-worthy about his analysis of other people. Honestly... null read. I err on the side of liking the way he approaches problems.

Also, I'm still fuzzy on the modkill and the explanations/implications.

YourHarry: Strikes me as the class clown whose humor just hits wrong. Too many of his posts are just bleh... One thing that I actively found suspicious was the claim to have not checked his alignment PM until well into the game. While I find the "Gawd! He was only drunk! You can't hold his words against him!" post suspicious: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&currentpage=24#470 I at the same time fail to see the point (other than general confusion).

This interchange actually gave more credence to the Lvdr case in my mind at the time. A non-related third party is coming to aid of someone just befuddled me.

He then jumps back into his "Why didn't you tell me what I misunderstood? God, read my mind better!" defense. Careful scum to just incompetent up until this point.

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I need to leave for a party at 8 now... If still alive, I'll respond to the suspicions of YH and SS on my behalf. Largely, I don't find exception to them, they're just thin.

fluffy sidenote:+ Show Spoiler +

I'm also kinda sad my When Harry Met Sally joke feel flat... oh well.