Karma, I agree with your idea that aRyuujin is potentially scum.
On July 28 2012 01:48 aRyuujin wrote:aRyuujin/MrMedic
+ Show Spoiler +Suspecting me-Smart I did not yet provide posts Either i'm scum or A really bad Town. Mr Medic comes to mind For these reasons too On July 27 2012 11:53 MrMedic wrote:
Ok, I am sorry about all these little posts I am doing. I am new to the game and am kinda reluctant to do a big first post but I will try now since everyone is telling me to post something worth while (I agree also).
First, I agree with Darthpunk for a variety of reasons. The largest reason in all of this is that he is constantly saying contradictions with him self. Saying that we should lynch Mr K in his third option and he says this would be great but in the other options while saying this he says we might ruin the town more or it will be bad for the town. But the thing that most strikes me is that he says number 2 is the least probable but he says in his third option that we should lynch him now. But he says at the end we shouldn't lynch him right now. What this really shows is that he is trying to force the option one on too our minds and make us think that he just trying to take one for the team. So in conclusion, he is on top of showing what option he wants us to do. Also, he only shows the options of killing him and as a result would not be a big deal or be a good thing and even though he tress to show the negativity of the situation in actuality he steers you away from it and making it seem like a positive outcome no matter what happens. His first content post he looks he's saying stuff showing fallacies He's bandwagoning and his analysis makes little sense if you understand how mordanis was posting those were 3 what-ifs false contribution and his confusing posts lead me to believe that he's either a bad town, or a mafioso backup vote's on him Here he says that he is either scum or "really bad town" what is the point of that? And he also casts suspicion on MrMedic for having a really confusing post where he doesn't say anything important (essentially what he is doing, but instead of saying a whole lot of nothing, he does it in haiku form). I don't think MrMedic is mafia, I just think he's having a hard time understanding how to contribute useful ideas. Throwing mafia suspicion on someone who I really think is just unsure of what to do is pretty scummy in my opinion. Golbat
+ Show Spoiler +You picked mordanis super fast. I don't see why you would keep swapping. On July 27 2012 17:14 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 16:59 Mordanis wrote:+ Show Spoiler [out of game] +About my attitude of being an arrogant asshole:
I read the remnants of your first blog completely by chance, and didn't see the subsequent posts and such. I judged you prematurely, and for that I am deeply sorry. Really, I am deeply ashamed about that, and I hope you will forgive me. I won't overcompensate, all I can say is that I'll try to be as objective as possible. Again, I offer my sincerest apologies. After that though, I still stand by my opinion that posting town reads is a bad idea. If you are correct, one townie breathes easier, but the mafia see them as a better target (those bastards really hate confirmed town :C). If you put a mafia on your town list though, they know that a bandwagon is that much more difficult, and you've taken the pressure off. + Show Spoiler +I honestly expected more people to have read that stupid blog and judge me for it, and I don't really blame you. I can get really hotheaded and overconfident when I see a solution (or in this case, potential mafia), and begin trying to slam a square peg into the area between the circle hole and the triangle hole. I'm still not sure about your scum status, but at the same time, I want to explore all possibilities, and casting a vote before the halfway mark of the day is foolish anyways. If you're scum, it gives you time to shape up your posting, and if you're not, it gives scum time to run a train on you. Even while I was writing up my reads, I saw other people who could be scum just as easily as you. But now that I've been able to refocus, I really think I should give other people some space to talk, especially because half the town hasn't even really contributed, and that's never a good thing. I do want to state that whatever my read are in my previous post, they should not be taken as me being 100% certain of a person's innocence/guilt. DarthPunk and Shady could easily be scum too, but I think that before we come to conclusions, we have to look at the big picture, and that hasn't really been completely painted yet. Over here, time wastes You continue to take back and go back on mord On July 27 2012 18:51 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 18:42 alan133 wrote:
I have read and re-read the filters but couldn't find anything other than Mordanis' "meh" case on Kei and subsequent cases against Mordanis for that.
I was kinda thrown off when Golbat decides to unvote Mordanis because he started off having high confidence that he is scum. His "I am a newbie post" also contributes to my suspicions on him. I quickly dismissed them because I still have my FOS on Mordanis and he did a case on Golbat too.
Now that Ange777 has mentioned it, I would like to ask Golbat, what makes you think that Mordanis is not scum anymore? To me, his only "townie points" is that he is the first player who built a case, but that's about it. Is there some "obvious" reason that I missed? Every time I re-read Mordanis's posts I am more convinced that he is scum. The reason I backed off of Mord is because I felt like I may have been pushing too strongly against him based on his first bad read. I didn't want to appear to be scum myself, so I backed off for the moment. I still have a sneaking suspicion about him that he may be mafia, but I didn't want to lynch myself by pushing too hard on a bad read. I feel like i've been talking in circles around mord, "He's scum, no he's town, no he might be scum, no he's probably town", so I feel like I need to take a definite stance on the matter, and that is ##FoS MordanisIt's not the flat-out vote that it was before, but I still don't trust you. I've heard several times to trust my reads, and so this is my position. We'll see what happens between now and lynch time. + Show Spoiler +but for real now, I need to step away from the thread for a few hours But here, you go back without a new catalyst you appear to help but really, you're not (a super scum thing to do) ##FoS Golbat
I plan to vote you but it could easily change depends on the thread Here you recap my mistakes without saying anything new about it. The only new content you bring to the table is that you're putting you FoS on me for being flip-floppy. Your reasoning is really weak. For example, what do you mean by this? + Show Spoiler +But here, you go back
without a new catalyst
you appear to help
but really, you're not
(a super scum thing to do)
##FoS Golbat How can you accuse me of being scum because of flip flopping, and then say "I plan to vote you but that could easily change depending on the thread"? That's an inconsistency if I've ever seen one. Mordanis+ Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 21:22 Shady Sands wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 20:33 Shady Sands wrote:On July 27 2012 15:36 Mordanis wrote:... *Sigh* I'll begin by saying this: If the people jumping on my bandwagon 1/6th of the way through the first day are town, they are really doing a good job of muddling up the conversation. Look through the thread so far, and see that the only discussion before I posted my case was policy, and that very lenient. There was a lot of "Oop, don't want to attract attention, guess I'll say that we shouldn't policy lynch any lurkers". I admit that I rushed my two main posts, and they may have been suboptimal, but compare that to the entire rest of the populace. We've managed 2 cases so far, and I was one of them. The other is a direct response to mine. I really don't understand why the people who are tunnelling me are doing so: attacking the only person who has posted anything of substance (that isn't within the same bandwagon as you) seems anti-discussion. So while I certainly made a mistake in talking too much about Keir and potential blue roles, the biggest reason that I seem to be "in danger" is that I've been willing to say what I believe. Regardless, I see the bandwagon as being very interesting. There are 3 people who have had an overwhelming share in the activity against me. DarthPunk: He seems to have a hard time with my line of thought. I apologize, my last game ended with me and another player (Release <3) in a duel that had a lot secrecy and enigmatic reasoning. I came to this game expecting the same. If you take people at the face value of their words (In which case, I'm town so don't lynch me :D), then you tend to miss a lot of good reads. The way to catch scum is not to find the first invalid argument, but rather to find the players who are playing in an anti-town way. This includes delaying to reduce the amount of analysis, making the atmosphere bad for town, and muddling with plans. By posting my case on the first thing that I saw, I went in the direction of an atmosphere that welcomes content posting, started the scumhunt before it would have started had I not posted, and laid a fairly straightforward path for the town without explicitly discussing policy. We lynch the player with the scummiest play. So while my read may not have been perfect, my post should have helped town. On the other hand, creating a mass bandwagon on the one person who has posted anything of substance (besides the counter substance) seems to accomplish the goals of scum. Still, he seems more to have an issue following my logic than to be following a plan, as well as being the first to place suspicion on me. I give him a solid "mEh" on the scum-scale Shady: The most brazen of my accusers. Doesn't seem to be following the fine points of the game very closely. Still doesn't appear to get that the day cycle is 48 hours and not 12. Has a great time posting out perceived errors in my logic and then votes for me on said perceptions, without seeming to notice that one of his main points + Show Spoiler +if it were not for the fact that Mordanis is the only one stirring up controversy about Keir. makes no sense. Why would scum draw attention to himself on a case this early? Why especially would the scum stick to his guns rather than move on to greener pastures? Seems like really dumb play for scum, although perhaps he thinks I am that dumb. I am pretty sure I'm more intelligent than a garbage can though... Anyways, despite my annoyance with him, his play seems more uniformed than scummy. So to you Shady I say: Read through the OP again, and preferably some of the guides. Your play so far has been far from inspiring. And compared to this group, that's saying something. Golbat: The entire time so far he seems to have been itching to get on my bandwagon. His first post with more than 1 line says: + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 09:15 Golbat wrote:
Howdy guys! This will be my first game of mafia ever that wasn't an sc2 UMS, and those I could never quite get the hang of (mostly due to nobody else having a clue what was going on either). Hopefully, I'll be able to make more sense of the game in a format like this.
As far as the game goes, Mordanis' post about Keir's post where he was "virtually claiming town RB" seems to be a pretty scummy thing to do. It didn't seem to me to be a secret claim of any sort, just a rules clarification. Even if it was a super-secret claim that he could use later, I wouldn't believe him if that was the only evidence he had.
From what I've read elsewhere, that type of posting is classic scum behavior. Look like you're helping the town and trying to hunt scum, when in reality you're just blowing a townie's mistakes clear out of proportion to sow confusion and doubt.
Not everyone has posted, so I don't yet want to commit to a vote, but I've got my eye on you Mordanis. First he makes an excuse for potential scumslips (First time in a non UMS, take it easy on me), and then proceeds to quietly second the position of DarthPunk. He seems to be trying to avoid attention while being able to make excuses later on, with the added bonus of being able to hop onto a bandwagon on me without much thought from other players. His second post + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 11:31 Golbat wrote:
I think that lynching a lurker day one is only a good idea if we have no reads on people who might be scum. As far as that goes for me, I already have an idea of who might be scum, so I won't get behind lynching a lurker today.
Also, there's not so many people playing that we can afford to kill people off just because they aren't contributing enough. I mean, if you don't post at least once per day, you get modkilled anyways, so it's not lurkers we should watch out for, it's multiple contentless posts (i'm looking at you MrMedic).
is more of the same: he is trying to come off as pro-town without having to commit to anything as of yet. Particularly of importance is the phrase "I already have an idea of who might be scum". Almost brilliant, as it gives him the ability to jump on any bandwagon that forms. He could just say "Yep, just as I thought" and hop right on. Sure, it works better if the bandwagon was me, but if it ended on anyone else no one could say that he had flip-flopped. Finally, he posts this + Show Spoiler +On July 27 2012 13:36 Golbat wrote:
I mean honestly, it's gone on long enough.
##Vote Mordanis
If you're red, try to be less obvious next time.
If you're green, try to be less scummy next time.
I certainly hope you're not a blue. Awesome, he jumps on the bandwagon in 2nd/3rd position, early enough that he seems to be "leading", but late enough that he can avoid later suspicion by saying "Shady was in front of me!". He even tries to end the discussion by agreeing that the case on me is open and shut. Vague Pro-town comments + early excuse + bandwagon-ing + anti-discussion = quadruple scummy. So for right now at least: ##Vote: Golbat+ Show Spoiler [nonsense about Keir] +I'm really getting bored with the stuff about this. Read my second post about his "claim" + Show Spoiler [spoilered for you convenience] +On July 27 2012 12:44 Mordanis wrote:Soo apparently everyone has decided that scumhunting is a bad idea D1? The point of this game is to analyze things. Context does matter, but some of the things that have been suggested so far are sort of ridiculous. If someone went to bed right before the game began and had to go straight to work, and maybe forgets they could easily go almost a full 24 hours before posting. It doesn't make them scum, it just makes them busy. On the other hand, if you delay posting content until other people post content, then the scum hunt is never going to get going. I admit, my case again Keir was somewhat rushed, but if we don't start posting analysis, we lose any information that could have been gained, and basically start fresh D2, just down 1 or 2 townies (rando-lynch vs. no-lynch). Another thing: Mislynching D1 is sort of to be expected. Unless the scum choose to bus one of their own, the scum have allies and are therefore less likely to be lynched. You have to use the information that is gained from discussion to figure out who is scum most of the time. From Ver's Town Guide: Show nested quote +The most useless kind of lynch is a last minute switch that is really easy and safe to hop on the bandwagon for. If there's a highly polarized lynch, the dead information + voting lists can provide a lot, even if the people accused are all innocent (then you can see who's manipulating just out of site).
In other words, if we have a constructive D1 but mislynch, town is in much better position than if a random lynch happens to hit scum. Anyways, apparently people want me to respond to the FOS put on me. Darth seems to have misunderstood me. The 3 situations I posed were the 3 possible roles that Keir could be. I ran through what the outcome would be for each hypothetical. I would think it was obvious that I didn't believe that Keir was simultaneously red, green, and blue, but ... Aside from what appear to be a misunderstanding, there doesn't seem to be anything else. The reason that I think that Keir isn't blue is because blues tend to be somewhat lurky but do contribute to the scumhunt.Keir has been fairly active, though no scum-hunting (yet!), but brought attention to himself by trying to seem like a blue. From Ver's Town Guide: Show nested quote +To keep this simple and save time, let's look at some heuristics to find potential targets, then go through their post history to get the best ones. Here are some common heuristics I use of blue indicators:
-Tries to contribute but doesn't stick their neck out
-Shows fear/wants to instinctively hide
-Drastically lower post quantity compared to games when they are green but still tries to contribute.
-Focuses most of their posts on blue roles or ignores them entirely.
-To figure out which role specifically, they will focus unnatural amounts of attention on that role, know the rules for that role thoroughly, or ignore it entirely while mentioning other blue roles. Figuring out the specific is difficult to ascertain and not always applicable, but these heuristics will hold up more often than not. Look at the post I indicated in my case, it fits those last two heuristics to a tee, but the other two are off(policy is sort of a gray-zone, sort of pro-town and sort of "safe play" but everyone does it + Show Spoiler +). That's why I feel Keir isn't blue, because he seems to be trying to seem blue but some of his actions are the opposite. And there was the public question: when I was vigi, I asked several questions about my role, but to try to hide my role I never posted them publically, I PMd them. His play screams to me a somewhat experienced player trying to fake blue. I hate doing this, but I feel there are some points that people should not miss. TLDR:Scumhunt should begin the moment content is posted, and Keir is almost certainly green or red. , and find for me one place where I explicitly say that we should lynch Keir. All I said was that he isn't blue. Which leaves the two possibilities of him being scum or VT, which everyone seemed to interpret as pushing for a lynch. I over committed to defending what I still believe to be a good read for being 2 pages in, but I didn't try to start a bandwagon on him. If you really want to make a big deal out of a mistake and end the discussion before the day cycle is 1/4 of the way done, by all means just vote for me and agree that its obvious. If you don't feel that way, do your own analysis and point fingers. Town doesn't win by singing Kum Ba Yah, My Lord. I think this is pretty important to parse through, because it makes me want to refrain from lynching Mordanis until day 2 or 3. I'm going to state that I share Mordanis' and Keir's concerns that Golbat may be scum. This is especially true if Mordanis flips green or blue--then Golbat is very clearly red, and vice versa. That being said, however, I'm still pretty suspicious of Mordanis' desire to start scumhunting an hour and a half into the game, when only half of the players had even posted. This was exacerbated by the fact that his case against Keir was extremely poor, almost intentionally so--as if Mordanis wanted more heat than light to be shed on the situation. One of the main things I'd like to point out here is that scum do not necessarily have to play quietly. It's easier for the scum to play that way, but playing loudly is also a valid scum tactic for sowing discord and division within the town--which is what I thought Mord's post was trying to do. Now that the Keir case is closed, however, and Mord+Keir have both identified Golbat's behavior as pretty odd in and of itself, then I think it would be worthwhile to take a look at Golbat. (I'm still a suspicious of Mord, but mainly because his behavior has created so much uncertainty as to what he really could be--and Golbat can clear up a lot of that.) Besides being the first one to "formally" vote for Mordanis, Golbat was also the first one to accuse Mord of faulty analysis. Granted, Golbat's claims were valid--but his more recent posts have made me pretty suspicious. First, let's ignore the list for a bit--we'll circle back to it, but one general thing to note about Golbat's posting: he seems to spend more time trying to make himself look like a townie than trying to figure out who is scum. This is the kicker that shifted my focus from Mord to him. Look at this train of posts below: + Show Spoiler [Golbat's posts since the "…] +On July 27 2012 16:21 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 16:14 Keirathi wrote:On July 27 2012 16:07 Golbat wrote:
Keir He hasn't even called out his accuser as being scummy at all.
On July 27 2012 16:07 Golbat wrote:
Mord I really like the OMGUS! vote though, <3.
So you call Mord out for OMGUS'ing you, but want me to OMGUS him? That's not what I said. I said that you didn't call him out at all, not that you didn't vote for him. I wouldn't expect you to vote for someone just because they voted for you. But saying "hey bro, cool your jets" at least would have been something. Until page 12 I'm pretty sure you didn't even respond to his accusations, but I might have missed a post. What Mord did was go "Oh so you're gonna vote for me? WELL I'M GONNA VOTE FOR YOU, TAKE THAT! Completely different. And then this post: On July 27 2012 16:49 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 16:26 Keirathi wrote:
@Goldbat: I responded to both of his posts regarding me with pretty strong dismissals for being a bad case. My apologies. I completely forgot about those two posts. Maybe i'm being too hasty with my accusing Mord of being scum from one bad read early in the game. It just seems really fishy that he stuck with it for so long. For the time being mord, I'm not convinced you're not scum, but i'm being convinced less and less that you are the more I think about it. So for the time being, ##unvoteI just really want to win my first game, and I want to do it while playing well, which is what got me excited to get a slam-dunk mafia kill on day one. I know for a fact that i'm not scum, and that's all I really know at this point. Right now, besides Mord, I think that our best bet is to see who isn't contributing anything to the discusssion and then get rid of them. I admit that all of my reads so far could be wrong 100%. However, i don't think posting my day1 reads about all of the people is the same thing as making a town list, because I didn't even give an opinion on half of the people. I could also do without your "oh look at how good I am, you guys are bad" attitude. This is a newbie game, and calling people bad accomplishes nothing except potentially driving people away. P.S. I know I said "i'm not one to throw votes around yadda yadda yadda, but + Show Spoiler +That was me trying to be all internet tough . I'll try to tone down my accusatory-ness, but that's just me being new to the game. And this: On July 27 2012 18:51 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2012 18:42 alan133 wrote:
I have read and re-read the filters but couldn't find anything other than Mordanis' "meh" case on Kei and subsequent cases against Mordanis for that.
I was kinda thrown off when Golbat decides to unvote Mordanis because he started off having high confidence that he is scum. His "I am a newbie post" also contributes to my suspicions on him. I quickly dismissed them because I still have my FOS on Mordanis and he did a case on Golbat too.
Now that Ange777 has mentioned it, I would like to ask Golbat, what makes you think that Mordanis is not scum anymore? To me, his only "townie points" is that he is the first player who built a case, but that's about it. Is there some "obvious" reason that I missed? Every time I re-read Mordanis's posts I am more convinced that he is scum. The reason I backed off of Mord is because I felt like I may have been pushing too strongly against him based on his first bad read. I didn't want to appear to be scum myself, so I backed off for the moment. I still have a sneaking suspicion about him that he may be mafia, but I didn't want to lynch myself by pushing too hard on a bad read. I feel like i've been talking in circles around mord, "He's scum, no he's town, no he might be scum, no he's probably town", so I feel like I need to take a definite stance on the matter, and that is ##FoS MordanisIt's not the flat-out vote that it was before, but I still don't trust you. I've heard several times to trust my reads, and so this is my position. We'll see what happens between now and lynch time. + Show Spoiler +but for real now, I need to step away from the thread for a few hours And this: On July 27 2012 18:44 Golbat wrote:
I can understand why you would read my actions so far in the game as scum, but they're honestly just the actions of a bad player who thought he had a dead on scum read and was most likely very, very wrong. From now on i'll be more careful with who I vote for, because while I DID indeed redact my vote, I really really dislike when that happens on the whole. I got a little carried away and luckily it happened this early on and not in a situation where I might have cause a loss for town.
Basically, I'm NOT scum, and anything scummy I have said or done so far can be explained by my inexperience.
After reading Prom's post (especially the bit regarding self-imposed posting limits), I feel like it's time for me to take a break, especially after spewing so much bullshit and bad play all over the thread. See you in about 6-12 hours. As soon as people start pressuring him, Golbat says that he's not scum in 4 different ways. He emphasizes his newbieness, he says he's just eager to win, then he self-consciously makes a post to make himself not seem like a flip-flopper. Then, when he finally realizes he's digging himself into a hole, he decides to pull the Ostrich maneuver and stick his head into said hole for 6-12 hours. Undoubtedly, if he is red, he is now sending a clear signal to his buddies to bail him out and hopefully shift the discussion to someone else by the time he is out of said hole. Next post will be about Golbat's "list post". EBWOP: Just realized I forgot to slot in why Mord's post makes me want to hold off to Day2/3--Mord highlights "drawing attention to himself" and a willingness to stand up for his beliefs as keystones of his in-game habits. The thing with this playstyle is that playing as a "noisy scum" is very hard to keep up over 2 or 3 in-game days, because in a game as small as this, the analysis will very quickly start to shift in the right direction and noisy attempts to derail become more and more risky as the posts pile on--inevitably a fairly major scumslip will be made. By committing publicly to this sort of strategy, we can judge Mord the following way: if Mord continues to play loud and does not get quiet over the next few days, then Mord will either burn out quickly and scumslip or prove that he is not scum. If Mord quiets down after Day 1, then his above post basically consigns him to becoming an easy lynch--especially if Golbat flips blue/green. Shady's last edit summarizes why we dont vote for mordanis If he's mafia he will be a free kill soon if he's not, why vote Here I agree with Shady's assessment of Mordanis. We shouldn't lynch him yet, because given enough time, he'll either acquit himself, or lynch himself.
I also want to add that lynching aRyuujin could potentially be a boon to town because his writing in haiku is really really annoying and despite vomiting poems all over the thread, he has hardly said anything original or useful.
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