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Newbie Mini Mafia XXI - Page 4

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calgar
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
United States1277 Posts
July 20 2012 19:38 GMT
#874
I'll agree with you that drwiggles is a good lynch right now. Is he better than harry though? I'm planning to move my vote away from iamperfection - I may have come up with a solution to him, I'll post more on that in a little. Harry under fire has given us good reads on how several people have reacted.
calgar
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
United States1277 Posts
July 20 2012 19:54 GMT
#889
Ok, I’ll be switching my vote to drwiggl3s here.

I also want to propose a temporary solution to iamperfection. I may have been reading his actions on the wrong side of the coin. I’ve said in my previous posts that it boiled down to whether he was mafia or confused townie. At the time we didn’t have anything better to go off of so I considered it to be our best vote in order to maximize the % of killing mafia. What he’s said recently in his vote on YourHarry made me change my mind. His defense of YourHarry shows his reluctance to put the vote there, so he shouldn’t have any trouble changing to match with jingle again.

Anyways, what made me doubt my strong stance previously has a lot to do with the flurry of posting last night and today. YourHarry seems to have been pressured into making several revealing plays. Drwiggl3s has positioned himself to look good after the lynch. We can evaluate these more closely, soon. When iamperfection said that his best town read was jingle I understood about him following jingle’s vote. I’ve been sort of doing the same with hapa. Now, to ‘prove’ his townie-ness, let’s get him to agree to vote with jingle every vote. He says he believes jingle is essentially 100% town so he’s going to follow him. As long as he does so, then we have his vote with the town side no matter what his role is. He shouldn’t have any problem agreeing to this since he has said he wants to follow jingle’s vote. We can use this as a temporary stall to eliminate him from our suspects pool and try to root out member #2 after drwiggl3s. As long as he is voting with us, he is a temporary ally.

##Unvote
##Vote drwiggl3s

calgar
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
United States1277 Posts
July 20 2012 21:43 GMT
#927
On July 21 2012 06:35 drwiggl3s wrote:Can anyone else say something as well. I don't want to only talk to Jingle and Fulla who said
Show nested quote +
On July 21 2012 04:43 Fulla wrote:
As far as I know jingle is confirmed town? So I will just vote whatever he says. He's a much better player than me anyways.

wiggles - someone has to go. If you're town then sorry, but you have to realize your actions haven't shown it. You made it appear that you were, rather than considering a case which is what town would do, angling to be in good position after the lynch no matter what. That attitude has too little value for the 'weight of the case' which is what a town would be focusing on. The town doesn't have much to go on and your actions have ended up being the most similar to how mafia would act.
calgar
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
United States1277 Posts
July 20 2012 23:57 GMT
#955
On July 21 2012 08:52 JingleHell wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 21 2012 08:48 Hopeless1der wrote:
Okay Jingle, we can pretty much assume that YourHarry is town now, yes?


Either that or the scum are pulling the most obscenely overly complicated con since Oceans whatever the fuck number we're up to now.
Thirteen. And careful there, Eleven happens to be one of my favorites.


On July 20 2012 09:45 YourHarry wrote:
If you are the jailkeeper (other than Jingle), please counter-claim.
Harry - please explain this request for someone to claim. You were trying to make a case for jingle but why would it be beneficial to the town to reveal the blue?



calgar
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
United States1277 Posts
July 21 2012 00:14 GMT
#960
A summary of drwiggl3s filter. Tried to hit the highlights - it's not too long though so everyone should dig back through it. The last page is mostly worthless arguing.

+ Show Spoiler +
Early on, tube points FOS on him.
On July 17 2012 05:54 tube wrote:
drwiggl3s your first post is you jumping on the (completely pointless) JingleHell mini-bandwagon against me
and then going on to say that not posting content-heavily means im trying to "fit in" which i wouldnt otherwise try to do as town
if thats your first and only read so far the only person i have a read on is you


Accuses jingle of a scumslip.
On July 17 2012 06:02 drwiggl3s wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 17 2012 05:58 JingleHell wrote:
With tube, I'm thinking the same way I was about Lazer. If they flip green, at least we don't have them hurting the town with their attitude.


Is this.. a scum slip? You should always go for mafia. Lynching someone for being bad-town is a mistake. This is a noobie game after all.


Points finger to obvious.660 (Town) and also tube
On July 18 2012 03:36 drwiggl3s wrote:
Deadline is soon approaching and we still aren't at a consensus.

Currently I think both tube and Obvious can be seen as scum. But the meta switch by tube (where he all of a sudden changed his tone, style, writing) seemed way too coached to have been his own doing.

A vote against Obviousis a decent one, but I gotta go with my gut here and think tube is the more "obvious" scum player.. Unless I can pull more reasoning out of why Obvious is mafia, I'll leave my vote where it is now.

##tube


Throws FOS onto obvious.660 (Town) and YourHarry.
On July 18 2012 05:09 drwiggl3s wrote:
But I'll throw my FOS onto Obvious and Harry right now. Seems like there's too much panicing going on in this thread. Gives me a good feeling mafia is scrambling right now. And that gives me a good feeling one of these 3 are definitely mafia.


He backtracks on the obvious.660 vote to cover his ass as he knows its going to flip Town
On July 18 2012 05:51 drwiggl3s wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 18 2012 05:41 tube wrote:
And why are you dismissing the accusations against Obvious as petty bandwagons, he hasn't even defended himself yet.


Don't you think if he was really mafia.. He'd be here defending himself? is the case against him SO STRONG that he sees it as an imovable mountain that can never be overcome?

If obvious was really mafia his scum buddies would be pressuring him to post. They would be defending him, or trying to push lynches even harder onto other players. The fact that he hasn't posted to defend himself, the fact that no one is strongly defending him, tells me that he's probably not mafia.


Conjecture as to me or iamperfection being mafia and WIFOM
On July 20 2012 03:34 drwiggl3s wrote:
I'm sorry Jingle but I really missed your breadcrumb as well and I've been steadily reading this thread.. so I'm not sure even with 3 mafia members that any of them actually caught it. And if they did, I don't agree with your speculations either. Throughout D1 and N1 you and Hap were arguing 50% of the time and spamming up the thread against each others post. Not saying this because you're both mafia, but it's definitely doing mafia's job for them. This is why I think neither of you were NK'ed.

As for Calgar, he was harsh pushing for iamperfection. Perhaps iamperfection is town and so mafia were happy to just let Calgar continue his case into D2? Or perhaps Calgar is the "obviously town acting" mafia scum you were talking about.

Either way, Mafia killed Evul. A lurker, who was going to be replaced. Netting us literally 0 information we can use, other than WIFOM.

For my reads right now, I wouldn't mind testing the waters with a Calgar lynch. Getting one of the major players out of the way and see what he flips. This could tell us a lot about iamperfection as well as others who are resistant (or soft defending) a Calgar lynch.


He starts to lay the groundwork for himself to look good after a mislynch of Harry
On July 21 2012 02:44 drwiggl3s wrote:
So basically your saying no real information comes out of a YourHarry lynch. We're shooting for a mafia and if we miss we're back to square one?

I'm just asking because I'm trying to link things together. Trying to see what we can pull out of this lynch should it be successful or not.. And I can't really see anything.


I don’t think much beyond this is very useful since he’s trying to defend himself by arguing with jingle. His most coherent argument post is here:
On July 21 2012 05:23 drwiggl3s wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On July 21 2012 04:29 JingleHell wrote:
Since the beginning, drwiggl3s has lurked. Scummy. He's showed up in controversial moments to give us great pearls of wisdom. Like these.


Show nested quote +
On July 17 2012 05:46 drwiggl3s wrote:
On July 17 2012 05:39 tube wrote:
the points against me are that im being an active lurker and thats supposedly our best lynch
how am i supposed to respond to that other than "i just felt like posting" because i didnt want to be inactive

from my point of view im not attracting suspicion to begin with


Hmm.. Usually Mafia feel the need to post and "fit in" as they have an inherit sense of guilt. Do you think making non-productive posts makes you look more town? Seems like it has the opposite effect.

I'd suggest you share some of your reads with us. What you think about other players etc. If you are town and really do want to get the heat of you.. If you're mafia than keep doing what your doing



Show nested quote +
On July 17 2012 08:53 drwiggl3s wrote:
Glad you could join is Fulla

In my experience (LVI) it seemed that the first lynch did not turn out to be scum. But that's just down to odds right..
However, one player who posted short reads, accusations, one liners (Bill Murray in that game) ended up being Mafia Boss and was shot N1.

Food for thought I guess. Kind of hard to extrapolate good data or trends for D1.


Truly food for thought.

Day 1, he voted for Tube well after that dust had cleared.


Show nested quote +
On July 18 2012 03:42 drwiggl3s wrote:
Ah
ebwop
Vote ##tube

On July 18 2012 03:38 tube wrote:
you're using the same argument that obvious backtracked on
theres literally no difference between the way i was talking before and the way i am now except i use punctuation and capitalization
how do you even get coached in mafia why does everyone keep suggesting this


There was a huge difference. But since that post and everyone calling you out on it, YOU have since back tracked and modified your play and posting style to the way it was before.


He visibly disassociated himself from the Obvious mislynch, which he seems to be capitalizing on now.

Here, he makes a scummy statement about killing Calgar purely for the information.

Show nested quote +
On July 20 2012 03:34 drwiggl3s wrote:


For my reads right now, I wouldn't mind testing the waters with a Calgar lynch. Getting one of the major players out of the way and see what he flips. This could tell us a lot about iamperfection as well as others who are resistant (or soft defending) a Calgar lynch.


And now his recent posting binge. Asking great questions, like what kind of info people might be able to glean from current situations once they resolve.


Show nested quote +
On July 21 2012 02:35 drwiggl3s wrote:
Jingle since your leading this I want to ask you a question.

If YourHarry flips scum, what information do you think we will gain from that conclusion?

What if YourHarry flips town. What will be your opinion on Calgar, Hap, et all?


And generally setting things up so that no matter how Harry flips, he's in a good position.


Show nested quote +
On July 21 2012 03:50 drwiggl3s wrote:
Jingle I think you could be scum. Despite your Jailer breadcrumb / claim crap. But before I make a (possibly wrong) case, I want to see more information.

Since you're 95% sure that he's scum, I'm sure your comfortable with this. As tomorrow when he's lynched and flips scum I'll be able to believe your actually jailer.


Thoughts?


I'll be responding to the above case in points.

1) The "Pearls of Wisdom". Those were day 1 posts. I was trying to encourage others to talk, and to be helpful. There it's clear when I responded to Fulla's question regarding how often mafia actually get lynched day 1. The first post you quoted against tube was me trying to be constructive. Instead of calling him out for his scum slip saying that he "just felt like posting" I tried to explain why this makes him look scummy to us. And I encouraged him to share some reads with us to get more information out of him. Just because I don't post as much as you do doesn't mean I don't actively think out my posts and try to figure out what reaction I can expect from a player. So yes they are "Food for though" despite not spamming up an entire page like you need to.

2) I've already made it clear that I was tunnelling onto tube for his change of play style. I told you that I think people's reactions are a better determining factor of their alignment than their posting. I thought that tube was a better lynch due to his big change in play style once the heat was on. This over obvious who made some controversially possibly scum posts. Despite this being newbie mafia, I believe the mafia are still competent enough to not make obvious scum slips. And that it's only town (who naturally don't feel a sense of worry or guilt as much as mafia) to post more freely and make these "slips" you are even accusing me of.

3) My post on Calgar was to state I support his lynch. I however didn't follow it with a vote as their were already votes on him (I'll explain in next sentences). My reasoning for this was it was early in the day, and I wanted to see who came out of the woodwork to defend Calgar. For example, I was looking to see if a lurker came out to defend him with some off the wall case, or if someone else really tried pushing for someone else. The reason I didn't vote for him immediately was I didn't want it to seem that it was impossible to save him. If that was the case than a lurker who is mafia might not risk the exposure to save someone who is already likely to be lynched.

4) As far as "setting" stuff up goes. I wanted to make it clear that I am suspicious of you and that I was going for a Harry lynch not because I fully believe in the case against him, but because I think it'll shed light on the most active players in this game. Namely you. If he flipped town I was going to make a case on you D3 if you ended up as a "confirmed jailer" and yet STILL alive after N2. That was the point I was trying to make. I wasn't setting myself up to "look good" or trying to kill a confirmed townie. I was just saying that if you lead the lynch on a townie, you should be held at least somewhat accountable. And IF you survived N2 as a confirmed town / jailer, it'd make me VERY suspicious if that is your actual alignment.

I hope this is satisfactory. But I'm up for follow up questions or anything else.


calgar
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
United States1277 Posts
July 21 2012 14:46 GMT
#984
On July 21 2012 12:42 Hopeless1der wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 21 2012 09:14 calgar wrote:
A summary of drwiggl3s filter. Tried to hit the highlights - it's not too long though so everyone should dig back through it. The last page is mostly worthless arguing.

+ Show Spoiler +
Early on, tube points FOS on him.
On July 17 2012 05:54 tube wrote:
drwiggl3s your first post is you jumping on the (completely pointless) JingleHell mini-bandwagon against me
and then going on to say that not posting content-heavily means im trying to "fit in" which i wouldnt otherwise try to do as town
if thats your first and only read so far the only person i have a read on is you


Accuses jingle of a scumslip.
On July 17 2012 06:02 drwiggl3s wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 17 2012 05:58 JingleHell wrote:
With tube, I'm thinking the same way I was about Lazer. If they flip green, at least we don't have them hurting the town with their attitude.


Is this.. a scum slip? You should always go for mafia. Lynching someone for being bad-town is a mistake. This is a noobie game after all.


Points finger to obvious.660 (Town) and also tube
On July 18 2012 03:36 drwiggl3s wrote:
Deadline is soon approaching and we still aren't at a consensus.

Currently I think both tube and Obvious can be seen as scum. But the meta switch by tube (where he all of a sudden changed his tone, style, writing) seemed way too coached to have been his own doing.

A vote against Obviousis a decent one, but I gotta go with my gut here and think tube is the more "obvious" scum player.. Unless I can pull more reasoning out of why Obvious is mafia, I'll leave my vote where it is now.

##tube


Throws FOS onto obvious.660 (Town) and YourHarry.
On July 18 2012 05:09 drwiggl3s wrote:
But I'll throw my FOS onto Obvious and Harry right now. Seems like there's too much panicing going on in this thread. Gives me a good feeling mafia is scrambling right now. And that gives me a good feeling one of these 3 are definitely mafia.


He backtracks on the obvious.660 vote to cover his ass as he knows its going to flip Town
On July 18 2012 05:51 drwiggl3s wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 18 2012 05:41 tube wrote:
And why are you dismissing the accusations against Obvious as petty bandwagons, he hasn't even defended himself yet.


Don't you think if he was really mafia.. He'd be here defending himself? is the case against him SO STRONG that he sees it as an imovable mountain that can never be overcome?

If obvious was really mafia his scum buddies would be pressuring him to post. They would be defending him, or trying to push lynches even harder onto other players. The fact that he hasn't posted to defend himself, the fact that no one is strongly defending him, tells me that he's probably not mafia.


Conjecture as to me or iamperfection being mafia and WIFOM
On July 20 2012 03:34 drwiggl3s wrote:
I'm sorry Jingle but I really missed your breadcrumb as well and I've been steadily reading this thread.. so I'm not sure even with 3 mafia members that any of them actually caught it. And if they did, I don't agree with your speculations either. Throughout D1 and N1 you and Hap were arguing 50% of the time and spamming up the thread against each others post. Not saying this because you're both mafia, but it's definitely doing mafia's job for them. This is why I think neither of you were NK'ed.

As for Calgar, he was harsh pushing for iamperfection. Perhaps iamperfection is town and so mafia were happy to just let Calgar continue his case into D2? Or perhaps Calgar is the "obviously town acting" mafia scum you were talking about.

Either way, Mafia killed Evul. A lurker, who was going to be replaced. Netting us literally 0 information we can use, other than WIFOM.

For my reads right now, I wouldn't mind testing the waters with a Calgar lynch. Getting one of the major players out of the way and see what he flips. This could tell us a lot about iamperfection as well as others who are resistant (or soft defending) a Calgar lynch.


He starts to lay the groundwork for himself to look good after a mislynch of Harry
On July 21 2012 02:44 drwiggl3s wrote:
So basically your saying no real information comes out of a YourHarry lynch. We're shooting for a mafia and if we miss we're back to square one?

I'm just asking because I'm trying to link things together. Trying to see what we can pull out of this lynch should it be successful or not.. And I can't really see anything.


I don’t think much beyond this is very useful since he’s trying to defend himself by arguing with jingle. His most coherent argument post is here:
On July 21 2012 05:23 drwiggl3s wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On July 21 2012 04:29 JingleHell wrote:
Since the beginning, drwiggl3s has lurked. Scummy. He's showed up in controversial moments to give us great pearls of wisdom. Like these.


Show nested quote +
On July 17 2012 05:46 drwiggl3s wrote:
On July 17 2012 05:39 tube wrote:
the points against me are that im being an active lurker and thats supposedly our best lynch
how am i supposed to respond to that other than "i just felt like posting" because i didnt want to be inactive

from my point of view im not attracting suspicion to begin with


Hmm.. Usually Mafia feel the need to post and "fit in" as they have an inherit sense of guilt. Do you think making non-productive posts makes you look more town? Seems like it has the opposite effect.

I'd suggest you share some of your reads with us. What you think about other players etc. If you are town and really do want to get the heat of you.. If you're mafia than keep doing what your doing



Show nested quote +
On July 17 2012 08:53 drwiggl3s wrote:
Glad you could join is Fulla

In my experience (LVI) it seemed that the first lynch did not turn out to be scum. But that's just down to odds right..
However, one player who posted short reads, accusations, one liners (Bill Murray in that game) ended up being Mafia Boss and was shot N1.

Food for thought I guess. Kind of hard to extrapolate good data or trends for D1.


Truly food for thought.

Day 1, he voted for Tube well after that dust had cleared.


Show nested quote +
On July 18 2012 03:42 drwiggl3s wrote:
Ah
ebwop
Vote ##tube

On July 18 2012 03:38 tube wrote:
you're using the same argument that obvious backtracked on
theres literally no difference between the way i was talking before and the way i am now except i use punctuation and capitalization
how do you even get coached in mafia why does everyone keep suggesting this


There was a huge difference. But since that post and everyone calling you out on it, YOU have since back tracked and modified your play and posting style to the way it was before.


He visibly disassociated himself from the Obvious mislynch, which he seems to be capitalizing on now.

Here, he makes a scummy statement about killing Calgar purely for the information.

Show nested quote +
On July 20 2012 03:34 drwiggl3s wrote:


For my reads right now, I wouldn't mind testing the waters with a Calgar lynch. Getting one of the major players out of the way and see what he flips. This could tell us a lot about iamperfection as well as others who are resistant (or soft defending) a Calgar lynch.


And now his recent posting binge. Asking great questions, like what kind of info people might be able to glean from current situations once they resolve.


Show nested quote +
On July 21 2012 02:35 drwiggl3s wrote:
Jingle since your leading this I want to ask you a question.

If YourHarry flips scum, what information do you think we will gain from that conclusion?

What if YourHarry flips town. What will be your opinion on Calgar, Hap, et all?


And generally setting things up so that no matter how Harry flips, he's in a good position.


Show nested quote +
On July 21 2012 03:50 drwiggl3s wrote:
Jingle I think you could be scum. Despite your Jailer breadcrumb / claim crap. But before I make a (possibly wrong) case, I want to see more information.

Since you're 95% sure that he's scum, I'm sure your comfortable with this. As tomorrow when he's lynched and flips scum I'll be able to believe your actually jailer.


Thoughts?


I'll be responding to the above case in points.

1) The "Pearls of Wisdom". Those were day 1 posts. I was trying to encourage others to talk, and to be helpful. There it's clear when I responded to Fulla's question regarding how often mafia actually get lynched day 1. The first post you quoted against tube was me trying to be constructive. Instead of calling him out for his scum slip saying that he "just felt like posting" I tried to explain why this makes him look scummy to us. And I encouraged him to share some reads with us to get more information out of him. Just because I don't post as much as you do doesn't mean I don't actively think out my posts and try to figure out what reaction I can expect from a player. So yes they are "Food for though" despite not spamming up an entire page like you need to.

2) I've already made it clear that I was tunnelling onto tube for his change of play style. I told you that I think people's reactions are a better determining factor of their alignment than their posting. I thought that tube was a better lynch due to his big change in play style once the heat was on. This over obvious who made some controversially possibly scum posts. Despite this being newbie mafia, I believe the mafia are still competent enough to not make obvious scum slips. And that it's only town (who naturally don't feel a sense of worry or guilt as much as mafia) to post more freely and make these "slips" you are even accusing me of.

3) My post on Calgar was to state I support his lynch. I however didn't follow it with a vote as their were already votes on him (I'll explain in next sentences). My reasoning for this was it was early in the day, and I wanted to see who came out of the woodwork to defend Calgar. For example, I was looking to see if a lurker came out to defend him with some off the wall case, or if someone else really tried pushing for someone else. The reason I didn't vote for him immediately was I didn't want it to seem that it was impossible to save him. If that was the case than a lurker who is mafia might not risk the exposure to save someone who is already likely to be lynched.

4) As far as "setting" stuff up goes. I wanted to make it clear that I am suspicious of you and that I was going for a Harry lynch not because I fully believe in the case against him, but because I think it'll shed light on the most active players in this game. Namely you. If he flipped town I was going to make a case on you D3 if you ended up as a "confirmed jailer" and yet STILL alive after N2. That was the point I was trying to make. I wasn't setting myself up to "look good" or trying to kill a confirmed townie. I was just saying that if you lead the lynch on a townie, you should be held at least somewhat accountable. And IF you survived N2 as a confirmed town / jailer, it'd make me VERY suspicious if that is your actual alignment.

I hope this is satisfactory. But I'm up for follow up questions or anything else.




Kkkaaaaayyy. So what, you want a cookie? I know how the filter button works. What does this information give us? I'm going through the filter to see what townies I can identify and I intend on posting my reads before I go to bed. Looks like I'm going to be giving you another look when I wake up tomorrow calgar.
This is pretty funny considering what you then go on to post. I'll take a cookie, thanks. Do you really think something like this is suspicious when are also people in the game who aren't even bothering to read the thread? Maybe it was for them. I already asked about blocking KP at the beginning of the thread before roles were assigned so maybe that category of non-readers includes you. Why aren't you looking at reckless voting patterns instead of a single post like this when you said you were satisfied with my case like 8 posts ago?

I disagree with your dismissal of tube as a possibility. His play is too inconsistent. Does anyone even remember wiggles voting for tube? I certainly don't. It didn't attract any attention so it just got lost in the clutter. I think it was more of a planted easter egg. Also, early on tube expressed the need to 'post a lot' with 'no content' because he had no reads yet, in order to promote discussion. Where has he been lately? Why hasn't he consistently followed his stated goals? Way too suspicious to be removed from consideration just because of an off-hand vote he received. I don't like your reasoning here hopeless.
calgar
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
United States1277 Posts
July 21 2012 14:57 GMT
#988
On July 21 2012 23:51 Hapahauli wrote:
So since we all seem to be on the same page about Tube, howbout a Vigi kill? It seems like a pretty solid kill if we have a vigi, and we can get a confirmed townie out of the deal (vigi roleclaim).
Careful, you know where this got me last time around lol
calgar
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
United States1277 Posts
July 21 2012 16:04 GMT
#999
On July 21 2012 06:21 tube wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 21 2012 04:50 Hapahauli wrote:
Furthermore, I'll be re-opening my suspicions on tube tomorrow for this vote. (Mafia bandwagon to the rescue?)
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398&currentpage=44#870

yeah definitely that simple lol
Can we get an explanation for your huge posting gap between the 18th and 21st?
calgar
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
United States1277 Posts
July 21 2012 17:41 GMT
#1009
On July 22 2012 01:56 tube wrote:
Relative periods of inactivity are not scumtells, they're quite frankly just times when someone doesn't feel like playing. A bandwagon on me doesn't tell the town anything because it was so easy for mafia to make me an attractive lynch, despite that the only thing I can be indicted for is inactivity.
I'm not sure I understand why you don't feel like playing for days at a time when you joined the game with a pledge to be an active, participating member. You're worthless to the town as an inactive member. More of a liability, in fact, because while other townies have managed to 'clear' their names with good play, you've been inactive and made a rash, suspicious D2 vote without reading. You can be indicted for that as far as I'm concerned.

I can't speak for hopeless or fulla but you guys are going to find some difficulty making sense of things when I flip town. Also, my vote on perfection reflects my confusion as to why the suspicion on him is suddenly cleared. Wiggles was undoubtedly going to be the d2 lynch anyway.
The suspicion isn't suddenly cleared. It more of on hold since better targets have come up since then. And we've learned a lot by going after those various targets while you haven't helped at all.
calgar
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
United States1277 Posts
July 21 2012 23:23 GMT
#1014
Alright townies, I’ll call it like I see it.

Sorry to see you go jingle, we'll bag the rest for ya.

@confirmed townies – I consider everyone besides iamperfection, tube, fulla, and speed to be more or less ‘confirmed’ as town. This is in varying degrees, of course, considering the fact that we're going on guesses based on our reasoning. I feel reasonably confident that there is enough info to make solid assumptions here in most of the cases.

@direction – It’s difficult to say where to go now because the remaining players are a mix of inactivity and suspicious activity which is helping the mafia hide. I think all four of them have been generally inactive, some moreso than others. I assessed what tiny bit of mufaa’s old filter was there and the vague feel I got based off of it was town. Going off of what little that is, I’m inclined to put him/speedbump on hold and go towards the other three for now.

IGMEOY iamperfection, tube, fulla

I'll kick things off with this vote since it seems to be where hopeless and hapa are leaning towards also.
##Vote iamperfection
calgar
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
United States1277 Posts
July 22 2012 00:05 GMT
#1016
On July 22 2012 08:30 Fulla wrote:
I've been accused/questioned, so I've written a defense but no answers. So first off why am I suspicious?
Tell me what you want me to answer and I can help.
It would help if I wasn't ignored

Also, so how many blue roles usually are there? We can pretty much assume there's no medic, is there usually 3 thou. So we might have a vigi to help?
fulla - the main reason I am suspicious of you is because you have a much smaller post history. This isn't necessarily suspicious in itself, but we're getting down to the end of the game and other players have managed to clear themselves in 'the towns' eyes. This leaves me in the dark a lot more than people with 4+ pages of filter. I haven't been able to get a read on you yet. With 4 people left to clear, this means the odds for you are higher than at the start.

Your vote for obvious and justification for it D1 are one of the reasons. You said it would be a no-lynch if you didn't vote but I think it was already decided. It's fishy that you misrepresented the actual scenario.

Leaving your vote where it was D2 also makes people a little uneasy.

You've been consistent on your hopeless case but I'm inclined to read him town. He jumped onto wiggles very quickly. Your tube case, I don't really know.

There are likely 3 blues in order for the game to be balanced. Whether or not that is the case, I'm not entirely sure.
calgar
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
United States1277 Posts
July 22 2012 02:19 GMT
#1022
I decided to stop being lazy. I give you a meta case on iamperfection – XIX

He plays roleblocker this game. Apparently mafia ran circles around the town by hanging back and just letting the players kill themselves off. I’ve included relevant QT topic quotes below:

QT link here: http://www.quicktopic.com/47/H/DiYvZaigCZfLY
+ Show Spoiler +
--I am at a lost at what to say
--it looks like we dont have to do anything they will go after each other
--i think if you push too hard on anacletus it will look suspicious hes digging his own grave let him do it we should just sit back and be more active the next day.
--and prom i didnt really call you scum i just said through the text you look suscpicous while all my other posts say we cant really know who is scum on the first day
--also i don't get all the complaining about the lack of activity on day 1. wtf are we supposed to talk about.
--What are your thoughts on killing blindy he really hasen't done anything so we can kind of be in the same situation we are in now with them running around like their heads are cut off
--jesus christ i know you want us to be more active but they are digging their own graves.
--whats wifom?
--I think if i just jupm on sciberbia's side it will look scummy. Im thinking of posting soemthing of the lines of agreeing with his views on intact but disagreeing with his blind rawr conclusion and voting for his other prime suspect bobthelob. Your guys thoughts?


I picked these quotes to try and show a summary of his overall mindset and methodology. Right away he says he doesn’t know what to say. His mafia strategy is to hang back and let the town go after each other. This quote in our game captures this belief PERFECTLY: + Show Spoiler +
On July 19 2012 04:32 iamperfection wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 19 2012 04:19 Hapahauli wrote:
I replied to your previous post here:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398&currentpage=29#577

Also, I haven't commented at all on your vote on Obvious.660. It could be seen as a bandwagon, but I don't find it suspicious in itself. As far as your posting goes, I suggest looking at the filters of Calgar and Mufaa, who've pointed suspicion at you.

So you want me to throw out fingers of suspicon that really would serve no purpose other than to be used against me later. What purpose would fos serve the game will change in a few hours and as town the very little information we get come from the result of the night actions. Why be pigenholed now during the night. Its the same reason calgar is upset that jinglehell is trying to make a final be all decesion on who vig should kill.

Also you didnt answer the question. my position on obvious was by far the worse i can do nothing to change on what i posted on day 1. Why wouldnt i just make a throwaway vote and semi bandwagon later on sombody else with less votes if i was a lurking mafia?
He is most comfortable lurking back and trying to avoid suspicion. He briefly mentioned this in some of his XXI posts. He says you can’t know who is mafia the first day. As a random observation, his capitalization is really spotty and that is consistent with his writing style here.

I included a few bits of his strategy to try and get an idea of who’s behind the posts. He is noob and lazy (not taking 3 seconds to look up WIFOM) but shows some awareness of what may or may not be suspicious. I thought the mention of killing a player who hadn’t done anything to be particularly interesting since this is what happened with evul in our game.

His filter from XIX: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=347856&user=149300

His post count from XIX was 42 for the whole course of the game, including post-game comments. This matches his post frequency to XXI pretty closely.

I felt that his intro posts were somewhat similar from XIX and XXI.
+ Show Spoiler +
From XIX:
On June 29 2012 09:45 iamperfection wrote:
My username hates any type of random or chaotic thinking. When we lynch someone it must be for a thought out reason. Only a logical well thought out reasoning will gain my vote.

From XXI:
On July 17 2012 00:42 iamperfection wrote:Our goal is to win............ I dont care if someone walks in with a t shirt with im scum plasterd on the front of it we lynch SCUM.


asserting noobness
+ Show Spoiler +
In XXI:
On July 19 2012 00:08 iamperfection wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 19 2012 00:04 JingleHell wrote:
I've actually been told in postgame that GGing someone who gets themselves mislynched looks like post-lynch guilt, and potentially scummy, as getting mislynched is frequently a sign of anything BUT a GG.

So yes, if a Townie gets themselves killed, I do think it's their own fault. This is not scummy, this is a fact.

i dont understand the first line? GGing talking about saying good game to someone after they get killed?

On July 19 2012 04:15 iamperfection wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 19 2012 03:27 Hapahauli wrote:
Oh forgot to clarify, I'm very suspicious of iamperfection's recent posts, and the only sentiment in his favor seems to be Jingle's "this is too easy" argument.

If you could elaborate on what was wrong with my recent posts. Explain to me how my position on obvious and my posting style served to help me in anyway.

This could potentially be a sign here. He’s trying to be less threatening and lower suspicion by showing confusion and noobness. I don't have specific posts from XIX to compare this to, but I talk more about it in my conclusion. Basically I feel that he demonstrated more skill, cognitive awareness, and grasp of strategy in the last game. He regresses here.


He enters both games with an attack on another player’s logic. Convenient way to shift focus elsewhere.
+ Show Spoiler +

In XXI:
On July 17 2012 00:42 iamperfection wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 16 2012 23:25 tube wrote:
On July 16 2012 20:49 calgar wrote:
On July 16 2012 10:26 tube wrote:
in a game this small where everyone said "i will be active" i dont think lurking is a good idea for anyone, esp mafia
I found this post to be rather odd. It doesn't seem like you're putting any time or thought into your posts - just what randomly comes to mind. You said lurking isn't a good idea but that's what you've managed to do so far. I feel the same way about your intro post.

IGMEOY

idk what igmeoy means but i just didnt do any analysis



It means i got me eye on you google is kind of usefull.


Although calgar's premise is wrong. I think a mafia member is more likely to put much more thought into their posts then a non mafia member. From my 1 game of experience in which i played more of a lurker role as a mafia member the other 2 members put a ton of thought and effort into their posts. Even as going as far as having the coach review their posts before posting them to see what they thought.


In XIX:
On June 29 2012 11:49 iamperfection wrote:
Im not understanding your logic just because some one said we should lynch someone means hes mafia? What else are we supposed to do at this point in the game we have zero information besides cryptic bantering. I dont think any value can be put into what someone says on the first day.
Here he tries to stall the town by discrediting any progress that could potentially be made D1.


Showing indecision:
+ Show Spoiler +

XXI:
On July 18 2012 22:50 iamperfection wrote:I also fully believe that at least one mafia member is probally talking a lot. When mafia have a good voice in town they can help steer the talk in a way that benfits them. My goal for the rest of the day is to find the mafia member that is being very active and talking a lot. If i find something i will post before the deadline.

He never gets back to us, of course.

XIX:
On June 29 2012 22:17 iamperfection wrote:
Im torn between fencer and anceltus. I dont like the way fencer tried to bandwagon onto someone elses logic. On anceltus i dont really know i think he just posts a lot and he kind of clamed up when some of the suspicion came up. Im leaning more twoards fencer but im new at this so i will wait for more of discussion before casting my vote.


a promise to return to action
+ Show Spoiler +
XIX:
On June 29 2012 13:13 iamperfection wrote:
and i am off to bed


XXI:
On July 19 2012 04:51 iamperfection wrote:
ill be back later tonight


On July 22 2012 02:39 iamperfection wrote:
also im going to the casino for the rest of the night wish me luck.


LOL. This is him giving the illusion that he cares/is going to come back to the thread and make something useful happen. As Borat would say, NAAAHTT!


on tube
+ Show Spoiler +
I happen to be damn suspicious of tube right now. But wiggles pointed fingers at him which has lead hopeless to believe that tube is town. iamperfection is also pointing fingers at tube. If perfection flips MAFIA then this gives us huge information on tube. It's extremely unlikely that two mafia would be attacking him. If we can get perfection then this goes a long way towards clearing tube in my eyes. This would leave the last mafia to be either fulla or mufaa/speedbump.


As an overall summary, I find many similarities between his play in both games. In XIX his arguments appeared to be more concise and logical – it seems like he’s tried to purposely ‘dumb himself down’. He actually accuses someone else of being bad in XIX!! + Show Spoiler +
On July 01 2012 05:32 iamperfection wrote:
Since you asked i think you are a bad townie.
If he is aware of the concept then how does he not understand how he has exemplified it this game? It seems like he has displayed better situational/meta game awareness in his last game. How/why has he regressed from this point? If he wants us to believe he is a poor old noob helpless townie why did he show MORE skill LAST game? I didn't include specific quotes to show this because it's hard to capture in just one or two. I came to this conclusion just by reading through the two filters side by side. He just seems to make more concise and reasonable, logic-based arguments in XIX. Filters side by side for comparison: + Show Spoiler +
XXI: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398&user=149300
XIX: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=347856&user=149300&currentpage=All

swear to god, if you ask if I want a cookie for this hopeless... !


What do you guys think?

@hapa
On July 22 2012 09:50 Hapahauli wrote:
Poop. No medic. GG Jingle, great job this game

D2 started out on the wrong track, but fortunately we pulled a good lynch out of it at the end. Let's find us another scum D3.

@ Calgar - I'm on the same page with you on iamperfection, but I thought you mentioned before the D2 lynch that you were reading him as townie? Why the change in attitude?

I don't entirely know, to be honest. I'm having trouble parsing through these last 4 players because I think they are ALL guilty of suspicious moves and inactivity. I've been strong on iamperfection initially, and strong on him when I was under fire. When he sidled up to jingle I briefly had second thoughts. Now that I've read up on him I'm convinced again, though. It's also a factor of other people I trust also focusing him whereas others are still a question mark.

hopeless's explanation of the reasons are also a decent explanation.
calgar
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
United States1277 Posts
July 22 2012 14:09 GMT
#1028
Perhaps it's time to defend yourself rather than posting up Star Wars clips hmm?
calgar
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
United States1277 Posts
July 22 2012 16:09 GMT
#1031
On July 23 2012 01:02 Hapahauli wrote:
EBWOP: I'll dive through his game filters and look for other quotes, but as it stands, his meta supports his innocence.

@ SpeedBump - please elaborate your thoughts on iamperfection. I know you're catching up, but "gut feeling" isn't enough to get someone lynched.
Maybe you're right. The point that convinced me the most was that he seemed like a better player last game - let me know what you think about that.
calgar
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
United States1277 Posts
July 22 2012 17:55 GMT
#1034
On July 23 2012 02:37 Fulla wrote:
It seems to have a went a bit dead...

@Iamperfection - who do you think is/are scum? What are your thoughts?
Well you don't seem to be helping in that regard. Why don't you try making a case instead of bulleting like 4 points and saying you don't have time but you're just relying on your gut?
calgar
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
United States1277 Posts
July 22 2012 20:19 GMT
#1041
On July 17 2012 07:38 tube wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 17 2012 07:26 Hopeless1der wrote:
I'm done with tube. This is going around in circles and wasting time. His current approach to responding is making my head hurt.

It's going in circles because all of you said the same thing over and over without explaining, which led me to say the same thing over and over until obvious.660 made this post:
Show nested quote +
On July 17 2012 07:26 Obvious.660 wrote:
On July 17 2012 07:14 tube wrote:
how is there even such a thing as mafia "generally" act this way because if that were true a mafia would never act that way

you guys find it really hard to believe that a townie wouldn't want to attract attention until he found more evidence or made some kind of actual connection between nights and days

You need to share what you know and what you believe. It's important because if you are town and get randomly chosen (assuming no better target exists for mafia) tonight and die, you have contributed nothing of value and we will never really know why you were chosen.

Maybe they got tired of reading your posts.
Maybe they want to use you as a vehicle of suspicion on others who had formed opinions against you or defended you.

Bottom line - having no opinion is not playing town-safe, especially when you are in the spotlight.

Form an opinion, roll with it, see what information it can get you. Don't sit on the sideline and let everyone else do the work. Doesn't seem like a fun way to play the game, honestly.


actually giving me a reason to do things differently.

However, to respond to you, Obvious, isn't it obvious that nobody knows anything yet. Even if I had a role I haven't gotten to use it so I can't say anything quite for sure. My strongest opinion is that people who have very few to no posts should be the ones under heaviest suspicion.
Anyone else find his offhand mention of him potentially being a blue as suspicious? I don't think town would try and hint at having a role, or even mention it.

On July 17 2012 05:39 tube wrote:
the points against me are that im being an active lurker and thats supposedly our best lynch
how am i supposed to respond to that other than "i just felt like posting" because i didnt want to be inactive

from my point of view im not attracting suspicion to begin with
You're being an active lurker again. Garbage one-liners certainly aren't helping your case.

calgar
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
United States1277 Posts
July 22 2012 20:24 GMT
#1043
On July 23 2012 05:19 iamperfection wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 23 2012 04:43 tube wrote:
I said more than that.
Did i play the best no (even though the perfect one made 2 perfect reads on jingle and yourharry before anyone else) but im gonna at least im gonna go down swinging. If your town join in the conversation even if you dont agree with the other people are saying.
As far as I'm concerned you piled your vote onto YourHarry and doubted jingle's motives until well after he claimed JK with the crumb... How does that constitute a 'perfect read' - it had to be spelled out for you. You were pretty far from the truth in both cases.
calgar
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
United States1277 Posts
July 22 2012 20:34 GMT
#1045
On July 23 2012 05:32 iamperfection wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 23 2012 05:24 calgar wrote:
On July 23 2012 05:19 iamperfection wrote:
On July 23 2012 04:43 tube wrote:
I said more than that.
Did i play the best no (even though the perfect one made 2 perfect reads on jingle and yourharry before anyone else) but im gonna at least im gonna go down swinging. If your town join in the conversation even if you dont agree with the other people are saying.
As far as I'm concerned you piled your vote onto YourHarry and doubted jingle's motives until well after he claimed JK with the crumb... How does that constitute a 'perfect read' - it had to be spelled out for you. You were pretty far from the truth in both cases.

You do realize the perfect gimmick is kind of my "thing" right.
Thanks, I gathered as much. You may be on to something, though.

##Unvote
##Vote tube

calgar
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
United States1277 Posts
July 23 2012 13:37 GMT
#1058
On July 23 2012 22:19 tube wrote:
I didn't jump on the obvious bandwagon I saw reasons of my own to vote him and I think I was the second vote on him.
Wiggles was definitely going to die that day so I voted perfection to show that I still thought of him as scum.

"honestly mafia is laughing at you" wasn't at wiggles read the context again
You're going to need to do a much better job of that to avoid being lynched today. Several people have leveled several accusations and continuing to gloss over them is essentially you putting the noose around your own neck.
calgar
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
United States1277 Posts
July 23 2012 16:16 GMT
#1061
Alrighty guys, looking towards the next day lynch right now really. Since a lot of us have doubts about fulla I thought I’d do a full analysis of his filter to see what I came up with.

He starts off with a short “welcome everyone” then goes quiet for over a day. This doesn’t say much in itself but I feel like mafia in the QT would have said something like “don’t lurk guys”. Small edge towards town.

He comes back in and says he’s noob but has been reading and keeping up.

On July 18 2012 05:49 Fulla wrote:
I'm back for a few hours now, until deadline so I'll try to respond to everything.

Tube
I don't think he's suspicious simply for posting 1 liners, it just comes across as an eager noob trying to play the game to me. When challenged and asked to stop tube he responded and tried to improve.

I think it comes down to 2 things:
- What are the realistic chances of him flipping scum?
- Should he flip town, do we atleast learn anything, such as accuser X/Y are 100% scum then. So we get them after. or the blues know who to check.

This is why I asked my question as whether statistically over eager/excited 1liner posters in the first 24 hours, do they usually flip scum? If like 90% never do, I'd lean strongly to not lynching him. I atleast thought this was a relevant question.

Next up Obvious..
Next day he comes in and sort of defends tube. He explains that tube’s attitude is overly eager and says the 1 liners are not necessarily suspicious. He then posts what could be interpreted as a wishy-washy convoluted analysis about whether or not we’ll gain any knowledge from his flip. No strong commitment. But it is consistent with his earlier stance. This post is slightly suspect o me because he says a lot without really saying anything. What are his reads, what’s his action plan? Sounds like he’s just undecided.

Next he defends obvious initially, but then casts his vote on him nevertheless when obvious disappears. I guess this can be justified considering the fact that obvious disappeared making him more suspicious.

He says Harry was a town read but his bad posts made him doubt himself. He then agrees that Harry is town. Seems like decent enough reasoning to me.

On July 19 2012 23:39 Fulla wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 19 2012 23:23 JingleHell wrote:
That reads painfully like an OMGUS, Fulla.


I actually had to look that up on google. So he votes me, I get angry and react voting him back?

The point was:
- He didn't contribute to other suspicions/discussions.
- Kept on and on about how inactive I am. (other inactive players what about them?) Why so over the top?
- Seems he REALLY wanted me in the spotlight with suspicion.
- Still managed to come in and make sure obvious was lynched.
- But try to stay out of it with me and his target.

Is that not dodgy?
He has a mafia read on hopeless which I’m not sure what to think about. He’s consistent on him, at least. His case is quoted above.

I think I’m leaning town in my read. From what he’s posted, his strategy and tone seem to be consistent. His readings on tube and Harry appear reasonable and supported based on their actions in context. I personally agree with his Harry reads.

I’ll ask you though, fulla, why/how did you read Harry as town initially? He had very few posts until the kill obvious one-liners which is what made you go back on your initial read. This is the biggest criticism I can come up with for your play.

I’m very satisfied with our choice to lynch tube. I think going on the posting behavior and actions this is our best call. 48 hours ago we were going at each other pretty hard so I think it would have been tempting to lurk more heavily, which could explain tube’s posting. Hopefully we bag another one of the suckers. If tube flips mafia then you’ve got some explaining to do, hopeless.
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