SSB-64 Mafia - Page 5

On July 05 2012 20:55 iGrok wrote:
The Reasoning behind everything

When I got my role, I decided to play like Palmar. I would lead the town Day1, be balls-to-the-wall aggressive, and force scum into slipping that way. I don't really play this style ever, but I wanted to try it out.

To start off, Town needed some information to work with. Not a full massclaim, but something to keep D1 from being a random lynch. That's why I asked everyone to claim if they got their first choice. If we learned anything by doing this, the rest of the town roles (kirbys, yoshis, Ness, DK). As it turned out, this confirmed Saturn and Cephiro to be samuses, not because Grush claimed not-first pick, but because they confirmed it. This also means that grush was telling the truth, which as scum he shouldn't want to in that situation. dedede's claim was really unexpected but I like it, as long as there was Town KP they'd draw the shot before a busdriver.

Ceph and Saturn don't have to be one scum, but it was very likely. So I picked one of them to carry. Gut feeling said Saturn was scum, so I carried him

Then we needed a way to deal with items and locations. By making one person each night pick, I'd be able to learn their motives, and by going first I would see who tried to do anti-town things instead. The first list was literally running down the order. Then I decided to change things up a bit. I pulled out Risen and sat out Tali. Risen had posted a total of 1 times, so I sat him out. And I felt like Tali was sheeping me a little because his reads were similar, so I sat him as well. Then Risen exploded, and that fight was... revealing. At the time, to me he felt like a dumb townie more than scum, but he got a Grey box (I use Green, Red, and Gray shades to mark people - Gray means somethings not right but I don't get a strong scum vibe)

Unfortunately, I derped on my own location, but this was almost ok because it generated a fight that revealed something about Saturn. Saturn hates me and plans on shooting me, yet doesn't try to lynch me. This is a huge red flag, and solidified my scum read on him.

I still felt that one of Ceph and Saturn were scum. So, rather than lynch into them, I figured that we could let scum tell us. I wanted to wait on my reads until the next day to see who they shot, and then go after the other as scum. There was a small chance that neither was, but I'm basically playing a game of probabilities.

I wanted something to work with on each player. That's why I suggested lynching lurkers. I already had reads on the non-lurkers, but I needed something to work with on Grush and Tali to find the remaining scum. And it seemed to work pretty well, as voting for them got them typing and lynching grush gave us something to work with.

Imagine if we hadn't found out grush was a Falcon. You think he would have claimed the shot? With his activity record? I don't think so.

Honestly, what happened last night is obvious. Scum1 and Scum2 (grush) shot cephiro as a town kp that most people agreed was town. Thankfully, dedede bussed ceph out of the way, and Risen got shot instead. Unfortunately, this means I'm also down to 1/2 kp damage.

So the remaining question is who is the last scum? The answer is not quite that simple. Its either Risen or Mr.Saturn. The fact that Saturn said he would shoot me but didn't try to lynch me. Yeah, he voted for me but there was 0 pressure behind it. Saturn's behavior is incredibly scummy. And yet, he isn't who we should lynch or push. Assuming that all scum are included in the set of [grush, Risen, Saturn], town has this game won by tomorrow.

We push Risen. This kills him. It will also kill me, but I'm ok with that as long as town doesn't derp. Odds are he flips scum, but Regardless of Risn's Flip, we lynch grush, who we know is scum. This kills grush. So now, 2/3 scum candidates are gone. Finally, if Risen wasn't scum, Ceph can shoot Saturn at night, and lynch him the next day (or somehow do .5 damage to him). This is how you win and cover all your bases.

Again, sorry this is late, I crashed after the 4th of July party last night.

##Push: Risen
##Vote: Grush