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talismania
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States2364 Posts
July 05 2012 17:34 GMT
#770
On July 06 2012 02:25 grush57 wrote:
My reason was that I thought he was scum, talismania. A TOWN reason


Not really, you didn't say peep about him day one. You should have shot iGrok whom you called scum, or me, whom you called scum.
talismania
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States2364 Posts
July 05 2012 19:18 GMT
#792
I already pushed risen.
talismania
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States2364 Posts
July 05 2012 19:56 GMT
#805
they think it's me + you, iGrok. But that should be disproven when risen/you and grush flips.
talismania
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States2364 Posts
July 05 2012 22:03 GMT
#820
time to get the popcorn ready
talismania
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States2364 Posts
July 05 2012 22:14 GMT
#826
oh god not back to the talismania vs mister saturn fight.
talismania
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States2364 Posts
July 05 2012 22:15 GMT
#827
possible igrok changed his target to grush don't remember if he said anything about that.
talismania
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States2364 Posts
July 05 2012 23:05 GMT
#847
On July 06 2012 07:22 Mister Saturn wrote:
grush must have forgot to send a PM. And I really don't think he's scum. Is the fact that he hit the same person that scum did, weird? Yes. But I don't see why as scum, he would either reveal the fact that both Cephiro and I were Samus (town has no way of knowing that kind of info without grush saying it and scum would want to keep that kind of information private so they can plan their night hits) and the fact that he would actually claim his hit as scum just seems ridiculous to me.

S&B, you have talismania as your strongest scum read also, right? I think we should lynch him today and shoot him at night. HomerunBat is probably the other scum. If we're wrong, we can always lynch grush.


What do people actually think of this plan?

my vote isn't leaving grush and I don't think anyone else's should either but I'm very curious about reactions to this idea.



talismania
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States2364 Posts
July 06 2012 16:17 GMT
#856
Good lord. I'm town y'all. More when I'm off my phone.
talismania
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States2364 Posts
July 06 2012 19:36 GMT
#874
Ok so what is going on here.

My guess is it's just grush + mister saturn and homerunbat has given them the opening they needed to either force a no-lynch or get me lynched. Either way it's great for them because they get to keep grush's KP.

By the way - look at the timing of MisterSaturn and Grush's votes LOL 2:16 2:17 That shit is classic if they are scum.

(Grush being scum with saturn could also explain some of hiropro's frustration as well. He was down 1 kp with a useless partner who voluntarily revealed saturn's role. He was even more depressed after the night actions after grush was stupid and shot the same guy they were using the night kp on.)

So what happens during the night if it's saturn/grush?

1) I'm lynched. Then they have the option of using saturn's gun on me. But I don't think they would because they have to respect the fact that I claimed I ate Risen and they don't know who I'm carrying. That gives them 3.5 kp to work with elsewhere. Obviously they'd be looking at acrofales/artanis + cephiro to kill with it but would have to contend with the bus. Not game over in this situation but not exactly a smart way to play either. Actually no now that homerunbat has swung back towards me being scum they should have no problem wanting to get rid of him since they don't have to keep up the fraud that it might be me + homerunbat which they've hinted at before.

2) No lynch. Pretty much as above, but they would be even more tempted to shoot at me to get my kp down to a manageable level. But am I carrying saturn? Or grush? Tough for them to make that call if it would be a one for one trade that shoots them in the foot. No, they're better off leaving me alive and pushing for my lynch.

3) Grush lynched. Then saturn resigns because his ass is getting shot by cephiro and he has little chance to make it.

_____________________


Other scenarios:

What if Risen was right all along - it's cephiro + acro/artanis?

Well, this makes little sense for a couple big reasons that should be stated: Acrofales backed off his scum read on me to a town read. Why on earth do you do that as scum? Far easier to piggyback hiropro's tunnel and get me lynched, with little skin of your back. Same goes for cephiro. Of course, it could just be really cunning play but let's assume simpler explanations prevail.

But if this is the case, the game is almost lost. One of them will reluctantly agree to vote for me near the end of the voting period today, getting me lynched and putting me at 1.5 kp. Then hiro shoots me tonight, getting rid of a townie for them. Then they use their night kill to get rid of grush and can use their other 1.5 kp wherever they want. Either way they will be at 2 - 2 and have won the game after tonight. I'm most scared of this scenario but I also don't think it's that likely.

By the way,

What is the lylo in this game? Is it equal numbers? Or is it when town can't win based on kp and abilities and items? I would argue that making it at equal numbers is kind of silly because then two townies with 3 kp could lose to two scum at 0.5 kp that might be about to die to a tornado or something

___________________


Other combos:

Mister Saturn + Homerunbat - eh I don't think so. Saturn quickly voted for him, homerunbat has "trapped" him before just doesn't seem like they are connected. Maybe but I don't think so.

Cephiro + Mister Saturn - imba as fuck and we're all screwed lol.

Homerunbat + grush - nope they don't switch from voting me to voting him in that case unless they're just playing random in which case I just shrug if they win.

grush + acro/artanis - eh? no clue.

grush + cephiro - nope grush doesn't shoot him in that case after they've already put their kp on cephiro.

______________________


Why I'm not scum:

Why do I eat risen at night if I'm scum? I'd have eaten grush in that case for sure. I almost did that anyway as town. Instead I wanted to rolecop risen. Why do I even claim in the first place?

Who the hell am I scum with? not anyone who voted for me day one because that would just be silly. Homerunbat? Nope he's voting for me now for no reason if we were scum together. I guess you have to assume that it's me + cephiro in that case like hrb said but I know if I were scum I would not attack my scumbuddy N1 even for towncred. Dunno who I would kill - HrB probably, maybe saturn for wifom or risen for wifom.

So Cephiro at least knows that I'm not scum with him. Which means it comes down to acro to make sure that I don't get lynched and homerunbat to change their minds and avoid the no-lynch.

talismania
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States2364 Posts
July 06 2012 19:57 GMT
#877
I wouldn't read much into grush revealing the samuses. I honestly think he did it without thinking.
talismania
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States2364 Posts
July 06 2012 20:39 GMT
#885
hmm it can't really be mister saturn + Hrb can it? I'm always worried about people who are certain that other people are going to flip town (Hrb knew risen was town too).
talismania
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States2364 Posts
July 06 2012 20:40 GMT
#886
grush if you're really town then what the fuck have you been doing all game
talismania
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States2364 Posts
July 06 2012 20:46 GMT
#890
On July 07 2012 05:22 HiroPro wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 07 2012 05:07 kingdedede wrote:
Alright, I'm home. My first instinct is to keep the lynch on Grush. The counterpressure that started to develop on Talis makes me happy as it makes it a real possibility. Tali's post makes sense and if Grush flips scum we'll know where to look (hi MisterSaturn). His play has also been lackluster. There's not a single post in his filter longer than two sentences which is pretty much as antitown as it gets, as it gives almost no information about his alignment other than that he's not willing to put in the effort to help town.

Hiro/Saturn, what do you think of Tali's recent post?


I think he's scum.

He talks about me being scum but then all he can support with is hypothetical statements about me being frustrated and partners with grush. And then he spends the rest of his post talking about possible scum team partnerships and why they may/may not work.

Artanis, he's flat-out ignoring scumhunting. He made absolutely no attempt to logically refute the things that HomerunBat and I have brought up. He talks about how he couldn't possibly be scum because he ate Risen (we have absolutely no way of knowing if this is true - talismania only brought up the fact that he ate Risen after Risen already roleclaimed) and that doesn't even have anything to do with whether or not he is scum - scum want to find out what roles people have also. And then he talks about how scum team combinations don't work with him...

- Hiro


No scum want kp. I would have eaten grush 100% if I were scum I guarantee you.

I don't understand this accusation of lack of scumhunting when I've been sure you're scum since near the beginning, with the exception of that time period where I thought it was Risen. I still don't like a Samus + Falcon team though for balance reasons.
talismania
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States2364 Posts
July 06 2012 20:55 GMT
#891
On July 07 2012 05:21 HomerunBat wrote:
Artanis, if you want town to win, you need to vote Talis.

Look at his defense, he still, STILL cannot name a single person and build a case on them. It's all association play, without a scum flip.

Look at his 'why I'm town section.' Are any of those strong points?



You really want a point by point analysis with quotes and shit? I think I've made myself pretty clear on who I think is scum and why throughout this game.

And wtf association play is amazing it's a damn 8 player game with 2 scum in it! This isn't some 30-player shitfest.
talismania
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States2364 Posts
July 06 2012 21:08 GMT
#896
Another thing I've thought of: read through my filter and read through mister saturn's. Look at how many times I change my mind vs they change theirs. I've changed my mind quite a bit. Initially I thought it was iGrok + Mister Saturn, but then I realized that was obviously impossible since iGrok carried him. Then I tunneled on HiroPro for a while. I voted for grush but thought he was just being a dumb townie at the time. I only voted him because he was useless and I didn't want to lose stock myself. I thought risen was townie day one, and then started thinking he was scum during the night as a possible mister saturn partner. Then I thought he was likely scum after grush's cephiro shot (WHICH WHY DOES EVERYONE IGNORE??) made him scummy as hell because of how risen acted to attempt to save grush at the lynch (but failed because he missed HRB changing their vote). And at that point I was actually feeling pretty sheepish for tunneling HiroPro for so long when it seemed like we were both town. And then of course Risen flipped and back we are here again.

That's the game from my perspective. HiroPro and strongandbig do not seem to change their minds at all. Everyone else has. HRB has, acrofales has, cephiro well I guess I don't know if cephiro has to be honest.

______________


And about me not following through on my call to action -

1) that's bullshit. I've been in this thread saying what I think about everyone quite a bit.
2) fuck the spreadsheet. I do shit like that all the time and don't update it. Bangbangmafia2 I was scum, I made a call to action and never even bothered to follow it. Bastard 2 I was town, made a call to action and never even bothered to follow it. Space station I made a call to action and followed it for like one day and then gave up. Don't think I did any calls to action in the PYPs. In any even the spreadsheet is unimportant right now with 6 people left and so few possible scum pairings. I don't see how it's necessary.
talismania
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States2364 Posts
July 06 2012 21:09 GMT
#897
On July 07 2012 06:03 kingdedede wrote:
Tali, do you have any meta games for me where you were town and where you were scum? It'd help.


Town space station, pick your power redux, bastard 2
scum pick your poison, bangbang2
talismania
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States2364 Posts
July 06 2012 21:13 GMT
#898
On July 07 2012 05:55 Mister Saturn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 07 2012 05:46 talismania wrote:
On July 07 2012 05:22 HiroPro wrote:
On July 07 2012 05:07 kingdedede wrote:
Alright, I'm home. My first instinct is to keep the lynch on Grush. The counterpressure that started to develop on Talis makes me happy as it makes it a real possibility. Tali's post makes sense and if Grush flips scum we'll know where to look (hi MisterSaturn). His play has also been lackluster. There's not a single post in his filter longer than two sentences which is pretty much as antitown as it gets, as it gives almost no information about his alignment other than that he's not willing to put in the effort to help town.

Hiro/Saturn, what do you think of Tali's recent post?


I think he's scum.

He talks about me being scum but then all he can support with is hypothetical statements about me being frustrated and partners with grush. And then he spends the rest of his post talking about possible scum team partnerships and why they may/may not work.

Artanis, he's flat-out ignoring scumhunting. He made absolutely no attempt to logically refute the things that HomerunBat and I have brought up. He talks about how he couldn't possibly be scum because he ate Risen (we have absolutely no way of knowing if this is true - talismania only brought up the fact that he ate Risen after Risen already roleclaimed) and that doesn't even have anything to do with whether or not he is scum - scum want to find out what roles people have also. And then he talks about how scum team combinations don't work with him...

- Hiro


No scum want kp. I would have eaten grush 100% if I were scum I guarantee you.

I don't understand this accusation of lack of scumhunting when I've been sure you're scum since near the beginning, with the exception of that time period where I thought it was Risen. I still don't like a Samus + Falcon team though for balance reasons.


You've done absolutely no scumhunting except for your initial post on me (in which you admitted that almost everything was weak). Everything you've posted has been connections, mechanics talk, and talking about how certain people are town because they don't go after you.


By those standards you've no absolutely no scumhunting either haha.

"Talking about how certain people are town because they don't go after me" misconstrues what I'm saying. I'm saying people that have been on me, like acrofales, that then changed their minds makes no sense from a scum point of view. It really doesn't. I know I'm town. I know acrofales, if he were scum, would not want to just back off me publicly like that. That shit is completely legit to point out. Same goes for cephiro, although less so because he might have felt constrained by the list he made, same goes for homerunbat as well but maybe to a lesser extent if grush is also town.
talismania
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States2364 Posts
July 06 2012 21:17 GMT
#899
There is some danger by the way if it actually turns out to be mister saturn + homerunbat (which is kinda unlikely as I've said). If I'm lynched, then hiropro shoots me, and the kp goes to grush and they win. Depend a bit on the bus of course.
talismania
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States2364 Posts
July 06 2012 21:23 GMT
#901
Your decision at this point is between a no-lynch and lynching me. Neither are game-losing for town unless it's hiropro/snb+hrb in which case they have the scenario outlined above or it's you + cephiro, in which case I fully expect you'll vote for me in the end and well played to you for fooling me. If I'm scum and grush is lynched and is town, game isn't over by a long shot as everyone else has lots of stock. someone will shoot me and I'll probably be lynchable tomorrow. Plus random damage from the stage and the pokeball and whatever other item drops. I have to admit I haven't really thought that particular scenario through though lol
talismania
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States2364 Posts
July 06 2012 21:29 GMT
#906
On July 04 2012 05:06 Mister Saturn wrote:
It's not that I don't want to think for myself. It's that I don't trust myself right now.

But I actually do agree with you on talismania. Maybe it's just me but the fact that he ignores the actually scummy parts of my play (like the fact that I've basically announced I'm sheeping or my uncertainty about HomerunBat) and focuses on pointless stuff makes me think he's scum. And to be honest he's been pretty unhelpful other than the bad case he made on me.

I'm voting for talismania. I'll be back in half an hour.

##Unvote
##Vote talismania


- Hiro


What the fuck is that statement? Maybe I'm just weird but when I'm town I don't really think about the parts of my play that seem scummy haha. I guess some townies have guilty consciences but still this is an odd remark to make.
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