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On July 09 2012 23:58 Promethelax wrote:
Kier: if you are around could you explain to me why AU is no more scum than me? I see the reasons you posted but they don't seem sufficient to make a 45% change in his scumminess. Maybe a 25% bu nothing so drastic as to make me totally positive that I will rest the fate of town on him being scum. How did I drop two (or more) spaces in your scum hierarchy? You aren't even comfortable pushing your scummiest read (me) from yesterday when we're in a lylo situation.
What I'm saying is: where does this inconsistency come from?
I don't necessarily think he is scummier than you. I also don't think I'm a good enough debater/convincing enough to get people that have shown you support all game to vote for you. The longer you stay alive, the scummier you seem, so while I feel you and AU and approx. the same read right now, I'm a bit more comfortable voting him today than you.
If you really want, I can lay out my full case against you, too, though.
On July 10 2012 00:12 Promethelax wrote:
And, in addition to that how did Hopeless become townie in your eyes? You had him as a scum read when you first showed up and are claiming to have investigated him last night without result. Why are you no longer willing to vote for him when he was a top 3 scum read? Of your other top threes you investigated 1 who came back green and you have deiced, it appears, that I am town as well. There is nothing in your filter to suggest why you changed your mind about Hopeless' play from scum to town and that worries me since Hopeless has been a scum read for just about the whole game and he keeps no getting lynched. Since he is probably scum and certainly still my best scum read your soft defense of him isn't working for me.
Explanation please.
I dunno, its hard to explain. His recent posting reeks of...desperation? But basically my whole scumread on him was based on his Day 1 actions, and there's virtually nothing since then that really feels scummy. I haven't completely dismissed him, but for now I'm not voting for him.
As far as my percentages changing, my reads were from Day1+Night1+Day2+half of Night2. Now I've been playing for another Half of Night2+Day3+Night3+Day4. There's basically double the information now.
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AmericanUmlaut wrote:
You're basically saying that I must be scum because I voted for Anacletus third, after Fencar (twice) and Intact. Based on your logic, Fencar and Intact must both be pretty scummy, right? Except they both flipped green, oops.
Other people being bad doesn't excuse *YOU* being bad. Although, I'm not really saying you're scum because you voted for Anacletus, I'm saying you're scum because you didn't vote for Anacletus. I don't think all 3 scum were on the Anacletus vote, and you and Hopeless are the only 2 still alive who weren't voting for him.
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On July 10 2012 02:12 Promethelax wrote:
...therefore vote Hopeless since he is scum.
I already said my entire scum read of Hopeless was based on day 1. His day 1 play was bad, I admit. His play since has been anything but.
Umlaut is the opposite. His early play was basically just blending in. The later the game has gone, the more scummy he has seemed, and when you add in his day 1 vote as an after-thought, it makes perfect sense if he is scum.
On July 10 2012 02:12 Promethelax wrote:
Yeah, this wishwashy crap from Kier has to go. Because of his claim I don't want to lynch him on the off chance (<10% in my mind) that he is telling the truth since if he really is dt we need him to win this game. Hopeless on the other hand has been playing scummy all along and Kier, my other high scum read, is now defending him after attacking him to create distance but not voting for him.
Wishywashy crap? I literally have DOUBLE the information now. I'm not going to stick with my first read just because it was my first read, Mr. "99% sure Fencer is scum".
On July 10 2012 02:12 Promethelax wrote:
I'll be voting Hopeless today and I'm confidant that we'll be on the right track to win this game after he is gone. Next up will be Kier unless he comes out with some brilliant reads coupled with dt investigation. His whole play has been full of shenanigans at this point investigating Myles instead of me his first night...I was his scummiest read and a player who all of you had as a town read. If he had looked at me to get a check on night one he would either know I was town and start to listen to me or know I was scum, claim and get me lynched which would be a huge win for town. Instead he checked Myles who, even if he was scum wasn't doing much so getting him lynched would not impact the scum team in a major way (unless he agrees with whoever said that the scum power roles are lurkers).
I investigated Myles because my case against you was much more solid than my case against him. I just haven't felt like I was able to get you lynched yet.
And I investigated Hopeless because it would give us information on him, you, AND Umlaut, which is obviously preferable to just investigating you.
On July 10 2012 02:12 Promethelax wrote:
So, with the inconsistencies in Kier's play and the scummy way Hopeless has been playing I am going to vote for Hopeless. Kier has put too much into the defense of Hopeless which makes me feel that Hopeless is more important to the mafia team. That only makes sense if he has a power role so I'm going to lynch Hopeless and next cycle Kier. Which will give us two dead scum and only one left to find.
Too much into my defense of Hopeless? Literally all I've said was I think his play post-day1 has been pro-town.
You and Umlaut have literally had each other's back for 2+ days, and even posted the EXACT SAME scumteam, in which 2 of the 3 have flipped town. That's just too convenient.
Anyways, its interesting that this game is going to come down to the lurkers deciding who to vote.
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On July 10 2012 03:04 Promethelax wrote:
don't let Keir's scum tactics sway you.
Still trying to buy town cred all the way to the end, eh?
At least you're consistent I guess. Entirely wrong, but consistently wrong.
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On July 10 2012 03:19 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On July 10 2012 03:16 Keirathi wrote:On July 10 2012 03:04 Promethelax wrote:
don't let Keir's scum tactics sway you. Still trying to buy town cred all the way to the end, eh? At least you're consistent I guess. Entirely wrong, but consistently wrong. Its cute how you try to fight it when you know you've lost, you are scum and everyone knows it. After we lynch Hopeless we'll lynch you.
I know I'm not scum. I don't know about Hopeless, but I don't believe he is.
You and Umlaut have put entirely too much defense into each other's baskest, so to speak. If you are in fact both townies, how are your reads on each other so perfect and unwavering when you take into account just how terrible the rest of both of your reads have been this game?
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Hopeless1der wrote:
Keirathi is so intent on not having me killed
I'm intent on not having you killed today. If we were both down to the last day, with 1 scum left, I would have another hard look at you. But I don't see this game playing out like that, so its a pretty moot point.
BobTheLob wrote:
I've decided to wait and vote on the person with the most votes in 1 hour, not much else I can do.
This is the most frustrating thing I've heard yet. Make up your mind, make a case. If you weren't going to put effort in, why did you sign up?
As far as my vote, I'm going to stick with UA. It really doesn't make sense that both he and Prom are still alive if they are both townies, and the unvote gambit really just felt like a big show to gain town cred. If you assume that at least one of the 3 people in that vote/unvote were scum, the better odds are on the side with 2 people than the side with one. Add on the fact that basically the entire case against Hopeless is day 1 and the gambit, I'm just not buying it for now.
##Vote AmericanUmlaut
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Also another thing I would like to point out in my defense as being DT:
If I was scum fake claiming DT, why would I claim that I was roleblocked? Why wouldn't I buy some cred with another townie (since I know who the townies are), and say they were innocent? I only have to get 1 person lynched to win, so if I can buy credibility with 2 people instead of just 1, why wouldn't I? It would make my job easier.
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BobTheLob wrote:
I said earlier that Prome could be scum and was ignored, only now are people realizing that he's been pretty scummy since early on in the game.
+ Show Spoiler +Now IMO Prome is scum and that's who I'll be voting tomorrow if we don't get anything better.
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On July 10 2012 04:34 BobTheLob wrote:
I would Vote you, the arguments are much better against you then against Ulmaut as well despite me liking you more.
This makes no sense. You think Prom is scum, but you would vote for Hopeless? Prom has literally been pushing Hopeless all day. It is very, very obvious that they aren't BOTH. So do you think Prom is scum, or do you think Hopeless is?
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On July 10 2012 04:35 AmericanUmlaut wrote:Show nested quote +On July 10 2012 04:19 Keirathi wrote:
If I was scum fake claiming DT, why would I claim that I was roleblocked? If you were a real DT, why wouldn't you know and share the results of your first night's investigations? If Keirathi were (hypothetically speaking) a DT, wouldn't he have been given his predecessor's reads upon taking over his slot?
I don't know why I don't have that information. When I was placed in, it wasn't given to me by ghost. I assumed it was because either BlinD had been AFK and didnt investigate anyone, or it was irrelevent information.
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On July 10 2012 04:39 BobTheLob wrote:
Prom is who I think but I don't think Ulmaut is in at all, Hopeless has a better chance than Ulmaut to be scum IMO.
There is literally 0.0000001% chance that Prom and Hopeless are both scum. What part of this do you not understand?
If you believe that Prom is scum, I don't see how you can believe that Hopeless is too. I just don't get it.
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On July 10 2012 04:43 Promethelax wrote:
You totally ignore any possibility of a bus, you are working to distort facts to make your case seem like it has weight. Hopeless is scummier than Umlat and you are too.
How am I distorting facts?
The simple fact of the matter at this point is that the most likely possibility is that either you and UA are working together as scum, or me and Hopeless are.
That's what the last 3 people have to decide on. Which one of the two sides to believe.
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On July 10 2012 05:06 AmericanUmlaut wrote:Totally off topic, guys, but seriously, how hard is it to spell "Umlaut"? 
People have been spelling my name Kier all game.
At least I spell yours right :p
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On July 10 2012 05:05 BobTheLob wrote:
Also just because he might be scum does't make his reads any worse, I've gone through them and he's right on almost all of his points..
Err, what? He was "99% sure Fencer was scum". His day 2 scumteam was Fencer, Intact, and Hopeless, which has obviously proven wrong so for every flip so far. Basically he hasn't made a single good read all game unless Hopeless flips scum.
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Hopeless: how would you feel about voting Prom at this point instead of AU, if Bob is so against voting AU?
I gave them basically an equal read earlier today. My main reason not voting Prom instead of AU was that I didn't feel confident enough in my debate skill to convince people who had given Prom support and basically a free ride throughout the whole game to vote for him at this point. If he survived another night, maybe, but with the way today has gone, its virtually guaranteed that he will survive another night regardless of if he's scum or not.
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On July 10 2012 05:39 BobTheLob wrote:Show nested quote +On July 10 2012 05:37 Keirathi wrote:
Hopeless: how would you feel about voting Prom at this point instead of AU, if Bob is so against voting AU?
I gave them basically an equal read earlier today. My main reason not voting Prom instead of AU was that I didn't feel confident enough in my debate skill to convince people who had given Prom support and basically a free ride throughout the whole game to vote for him at this point. If he survived another night, maybe, but with the way today has gone, its virtually guaranteed that he will survive another night regardless of if he's scum or not.
I call bullshit on this, If you thought it was him then you should have at least said so, you are getting more and more scummy as the day goes on, what the fuck is up with that.
This is the way I look at it: if I think Prom and AU both have an 80% chance of being scum, but Prom has town support behind him, then its obvious that I would vote and push AU instead. The longer Prom lives, the scummier he seems, and the more likely he is to make a slip. I felt more confident in my ability to get him lynched on a later day than I did today. That's it.
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##Unvote
##Vote Promethelax
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On July 10 2012 05:36 Myles wrote:
This is how I see it - either Hopeless is scum and that's why it was hard for Prom/Umlaut to round up support, or Prom/Umluat are scum and that's the reason they couldn't drum up support. I'll be voting Hopeless because I think there's far more to suggest Prom and Umluat are town rather than scum, and Keirathi's story, after further review, does seem to have some holes in it.
##Vote Hopeless1der
Well, this basically seals the deal. I hope you are scum with them, because if not, you just made the worst read of your life.
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Also: I have a bad feeling about perfection at this point.
I have a feeling that he's here, and just waiting until the last second to hammer.
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Ah well, if this ends like I expect, then GG scum. You played well. I wish I had a more dominant, leadership personality and could have lead town to victory. There's a reason I was never on the debate team.
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EPT
