yeah maybe he's scum and I fucked up, but meh. I'm leaning on the opinions of the most recent dead and confirmed townies too (VE, Probulous) so if I'm wrong I can at least blame someone else (jk jk). And prplhz is not roleblocker and that's our best shot of remotely winning.

prplhz, I've done the cold hard analysis:

On June 29 2012 08:13 marvellosity wrote:
I've spent 4 hours today making my reads on everyone from the game, and as much by process of elimination you have to be scum.

Just the way the cookie crumbles I'm afraid.

risk, snarfs or shraft plz?

That was not 4 hours spent crying or being emotional, believe you me.

marvellosity

United Kingdom36161 Posts

June 29 2012 11:27 GMT

#1501

and at least if I'm hysterically wrong it'll be over in less than 12 hours and you can all have a nice shout at me, ye?

:>

marvellosity

United Kingdom36161 Posts

June 29 2012 11:59 GMT

#1505

you handily missed out the bit where you said "where he spent the entire game screwing up". You don't think I was fuck youing at the roleblocker bit do you?

marvellosity

United Kingdom36161 Posts

June 29 2012 12:14 GMT

#1506

ugh, gonna look at some setup shizzle in the next hour or two.

marvellosity

United Kingdom36161 Posts

June 29 2012 12:41 GMT

#1507

Assuming we lynch scum, overnight it will be 3-2-1.

Town lynches the roleblocker

3-2-1 will likely become 2-1-1. Town cannot possibly win.

Is the mafia's best ploy to kill a townie? Presumably any sane SK (rofl :/) chose one-shot bulletproof for situations just like these (BH chose it last game). So if mafia tries to shoot at SK then likely it ends up 3-1-1, worse for mafia than 2-1-1 (obviously)

Town doesn't lynch the roleblocker

3-2-1 becomes 2-2-1. An even worse situation for town numerically speaking, where the only hope is for town to lynch a mafia and then mafia and SK to shoot each other (extremely unlikely...)

Basically town cannot possibly win unless by some miracle mafia hits the SK tonight. Presuming this happens:

If SK gets roleblocked, it will be 3-2-1 tomorrow and we can potentially win by lynching scum.
If SK does not get roleblocked, it will be 3-1-1 tomorrow, where fate is entirely in town's hands.

In other words, town can only win if mafia does not kill town tomorrow. This being the case, our chances are greatly increased if we manage to hit the roleblocker.

Everyone please comment. Am I making correct assumptions here?

The one of course that it's based on is a 3-1 scum/SK split.

In Emergency it was 3/1 and town had cop, roleblocker, jailer, similar blue powers to here, so it seems reasonable.

marvellosity

United Kingdom36161 Posts

June 29 2012 14:22 GMT

#1509

I can't believe RB would stop both the shot and one-shot bulletproof.

It's like the veteran's ability which is passive and unblockable.

So a no-lynch at 2-1-1.

That still relies on mafia and SK shooting at each other though...oh i see...

this is a bit like game theory