EPTHowever, I will note that the post still calls BroodKing scum, mention that he "scream[s] scum." Maybe he missed the case, being called scum out of the blue would give me an inkling that something might be up.
Newbie Mini Mafia XIII - Page 2
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
However, I will note that the post still calls BroodKing scum, mention that he "scream[s] scum." Maybe he missed the case, being called scum out of the blue would give me an inkling that something might be up. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Anac(4) - Hyaach, Darkfirex5, BroodKingEXE, Crossfire BroodKingEXE(8) - austinmcc, Analectus, dahdum, BioSC, FirmTofu, ShiaoPi, Unforgiven_ve, Mufaa Not Voting(1): Jailbreaker | ||
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austinmcc
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After the end of D1, we'll have 36 hours to look at voting, who swung when, who swung why, and how Brood (if votes stay as they are) flips. We ought to have some good info and leads in there. You, more than anyone else, are going to have to start looking through it and make some reads off the votes. Because come D2, you're our best candidate so far for a lynch. | ||
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austinmcc
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 I know I tunneled him and drove that wagon, but as the day kept going his responses just looked worse and worse. Time for some rereading and a hard look at how votes moved. | ||
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austinmcc
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Here's what I can add - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnX9O6cujxVmdFlvZkdqR1g0Qlh3d2dSaENrdW9DblE#gid=0 It's just a rough sketch, but that's the vote movement hour by hour. Yellow cells are changes in votes, and (#) shows the overall order of the changes, with exact times noted below. There seem to be three phases to the votes. An initial round from 3:00 - 4:30ish, where we first started digging into Brood's answers and discussing things. All the initial movement happened there - Shiao unvotes, Dahdum, Anac, and Bio unvote and vote Brood, and Crossfire votes Anac. As of that point, the vote was 5 for Anac, 4 for Brood, 4 not voting. Lynch was still on Anac. Then the lynch actually changes. Firm's vote became the deciding vote, tipping things to 5 for Brood, 4 for Anac, 1 for Jailbreaker, 3 not voting. After that, the remaining 3 Brood votes come from Shiao (who had unvoted earlier but not voted Brood yet), Mufaa (who had voted Jailbreaker), and Unforgiven (who had not voted). After looking at it a few times, nothing really stands out to me. Firm's vote may have changed the lynch target, but we were rolling in that direction and Shiao had already stated his vote was going to change depending on Brood's defense. Shiao's vote can either be read as perfectly normal (no longer convinced on Anac, waiting to decide) or as kind of scummy (unvoting early, watching to see where to vote later). I don't really read it as scummy. Mufaa's vote is odd, only because after a few hours of action on one subject, he pops up and just throws a vote in another direction. I don't quite know what to make of it. Things to consider - (1) the entire thread has been focused on one subject for a few hours, he pops in and throws a vote on Jailbreaker; (2) he changes his vote shortly thereafter; (3) his vote came at a critical time (a vote for Brood would have made it 5/5, with Anac still being lynched. Little unsure on how I read this as of right now. So, make of it what you will. Perhaps it strengthens some cases or weakens others. And maybe it's useful in the future. | ||
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austinmcc
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I'm still suspicious of Anac. More and more people seem to be swinging towards bad townie play. I'd like to see more contributions from you Anac, because at this point I'm still unconvinced. I may have helped save you from a lynch AND given you a story to hide behind. I'm currently not really suspicious of anyone for "wagoning." When I initially posted on Anac and Brood, I legitimately felt that Anac was quite possibly townie, and Brood looked scummy. I stand by those reads. To the extent that you guys think those reads were sensible, then agreeing with them is NOT scummy play (in my mind). To me, I'm actually more suspicious of those whose votes didn't go Anac --> Brood. Darkfire. Others have already mentioned this. As votes are coming in on Anac, says it's a "weak bandwagon," with weak reasoning behind it. An hour and a half later, drops his vote on Anac. Now finds Anac scummiest. Then he defends Brood, saying he wants "more posts" from one of the more active players at that point and time (based purely on filter length). At night, we get this: + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 11:32 Darkfirex5 wrote: I guess no one listened to me about the switch of the bandwagon with no solid evidence compared to the "safer" bet with Anacletus, I'll be going over the people who switch vote, i gtg for now but i believe i saw a mafia group bandwagoning to get it started. <-- ill be looking into that I have no idea what to make of that. He didn't think anac was scum until anac's self-vote, then decided anac was the safest/safer lynch? Complains about no solid evidence on Brood, but again, I think the evidence DID look bad for Brood. And if it didn't, what good evidence was there on Anac? Also, just very, very focused on bandwagoning in general, mentioning it a LOT. It's not necessarily a bad thing, and I still believe that at the end of D1, Brood looked the scummiest. Don't have enough on Unforgiven to think one way or the other. Mufaa's jailbreaker vote, as everyone has mentioned, is odd just because it stands out so much. Why vote Jailbreaker at the 11th hour? Almost no chance of getting a lynch without some serious analysis there. At the same time, as scum, why bring up a third vote candidate when you see that votes are starting to swap to a candidate you know is town? Just WIFOM, can't get anything out of that one right now. Hyaach posted this very early on yesterday + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 01:13 Hyaach wrote: There is basically 8 hours left in this day. We are hard pressed against time. On the BKE suspicions. I actually felt that it is a valid direction. If you filter his post, he does post often but its all fluff. There is never anything constructive to the town from him. You could argue that he pressuring everyone and asking of explanation is town play but it could also be mafia trying to fish out blue roles What say you BKE. On Anacletus While i hope it is your bad play. You could be the godfather and choose to appear innocent to all investigation. Anacletus, in your opinion who do you think is scum right now? On May 12 2012 12:20 Hyaach wrote: bad play town bad play. I was asleep from my last post to now. Going to read what happened inbetween. | ||
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austinmcc
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As of right now, I've got a few people that I'd love to see post more. Mufaa, Unforgiven, Hyaach, Firm. I've got weak townie reads on some of you, but there's just not enough there to go on. Please try and get some substantive posting in today. Inactivity is killing us (and i've contributed), so we've got to try and turn this around. Also interested in hearing more from Dahdum and BioSC. You guys keep calling each other out, but haven't drummed up that much interest from the rest of us it seems. Can either of you really put something good together on the other, why you think they might be scummy beyond just OMGUS? Either one of you could have something there, but I don't find anything in your filters all that convincing. Asking for more from others doesn't really give you anything from me, so here's what I've got to contribute. Right now my top read, and my vote, are on Darkfire His D1 filter is some general talk about "bandwagoning" and pronouns. Votes Anac because he seems scummiest, but doesn't really give much of his own read. Just kind of going along with where votes were falling at the time. He pops in during the Anac/Brood discussion only to give the one post that everyone seems to find suspicious: + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 06:17 Darkfirex5 wrote: I'd suggest filtering BKEXE's posts. From what I'm reading of what he has posted, there isnt anying that makes me want to switch the bandwagon onto him (fairly) last minute. There isnt enough posts from him to make the acusation he is more mafia than that of Anacletus. I dislike this massive wagon switch because instead of going with the safest mafia guess, we switch it last minute to someone i think we need more posts from to prove he is mafia. Dark, I need to really hear some defense of this statement from you. What made Anac the safest mafia guess? What reasons did you really have for voting him? You repeat this argument after D1, lamenting why nobody listened to you. Well, what should we have listened to? Give us a decent reason you voted Anac and didn't vote Brood. Brood's filter was one of the longer ones in the game at that point, as we've pointed out, and, in fact, Brood's filter during D1 was longer than yours is this entire game so far. If his filter wasn't long enough to give you evidence he was scum, your filter really isn't long enough to convince me that you're town. The only response you've given to anyone's suspicions on you so far is The reason i like to stay cautious is because when things start happening fast like at the end of day one, we may end up switching the bandwagon and lynching a townie, inthis case the cop. I also think suspicions on people are much different then placing a vote. By me saying im suspicious of people means okay, something doesnt seem right but i need more evidence for me to want to put a vote on them to be lynched. The reason i kept the slight defense on Anacletus was becuase it was still day 1 and its hard to decide on the lynching. I ended up voting on him anyway becuase he seemed more scummy than EXE and i didnt like risking the vote on EXE before more evidence was obtained from/for him to prove he was scummy. So i went with the person who seemed the scummiest at the time, Anacletus. This feels like really weak reasoning. I maintain that there wasn't much of a case on Anac, and there was a decent case on Brood. I don't know why you had enough evidence on Anac but not on Brood. You've never really clearly explained your choices, either during D1 or in response to people calling you out. And they have. Here's ShiaoPi: + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 10:00 ShiaoPi wrote: I want to focus a bit on darkfirex5: If you read through his filter, you immediately see that there is simply a lot of weak halfcases he starts against several people, these include: Anacletus (where his vote ends up), BioSC, FirmTofu and dahdum. His posts are few and mostly within the context of the Anacletus discussion, in which he seemingly takes a diverting role with his suspicions. In regards to BKE he writes the following: + Show Spoiler + I'd suggest filtering BKEXE's posts. From what I'm reading of what he has posted, there isnt anying that makes me want to switch the bandwagon onto him (fairly) last minute. There isnt enough posts from him to make the acusation he is more mafia than that of Anacletus. I dislike this massive wagon switch because instead of going with the safest mafia guess, we switch it last minute to someone i think we need more posts from to prove he is mafia. I bolded the part which seemed weird to me. I could agree with his reasoning on not wanting to switch before, but BKE was actually one of the more active players so it seems like a sentence without anything backing it up. Generally speaking he is acting scummy as in non-comittal to his reads/suspicions and inactivity. Keep your eyes on him. On May 12 2012 20:36 ShiaoPi wrote: Darkfirex5 also posted the following: + Show Spoiler + I guess no one listened to me about the switch of the bandwagon with no solid evidence compared to the "safer" bet with Anacletus, I'll be going over the people who switch vote, i gtg for now but i believe i saw a mafia group bandwagoning to get it started. <-- ill be looking into that Which means he is totally ignoring my post about him. Just a general statement of regret and a somehow flawed logic of a "safer bet". I believe we have quite established that Anacletus can easily be lynched later if the need arises. Anyone else up for pressuring him as well? Here's me: + Show Spoiler + Darkfire. Others have already mentioned this. As votes are coming in on Anac, says it's a "weak bandwagon," with weak reasoning behind it. An hour and a half later, drops his vote on Anac. Now finds Anac scummiest. Then he defends Brood, saying he wants "more posts" from one of the more active players at that point and time (based purely on filter length). At night, we get this: + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 11:32 Darkfirex5 wrote: I guess no one listened to me about the switch of the bandwagon with no solid evidence compared to the "safer" bet with Anacletus, I'll be going over the people who switch vote, i gtg for now but i believe i saw a mafia group bandwagoning to get it started. <-- ill be looking into that I have no idea what to make of that. He didn't think anac was scum until anac's self-vote, then decided anac was the safest/safer lynch? Complains about no solid evidence on Brood, but again, I think the evidence DID look bad for Brood. And if it didn't, what good evidence was there on Anac? Also, just very, very focused on bandwagoning in general, mentioning it a LOT. It's not necessarily a bad thing, and I still believe that at the end of D1, Brood looked the scummiest. After ShiaoPi gets killed, here's Darkfire - On May 13 2012 12:30 Darkfirex5 wrote: well now we have a lot to work with at least, i guess ShiaoPi was onto something, time to avenge him :D Another unhelpful post after an event (Just like his "safer" bet comment after D1). Without any recognition that one of ShiaoPi's main reads was him. Shiao had called out Darkfire twice, I'd chimed in, and Dark still hasn't responded to any of that. While he recently claims to have been trying to look into Mufaa and Dahdum, there's nothing there. His looking into Mufaa is just quoting a post from Shiao (without ever answering Shiao's questions about himself). I don't see him "looking into" dahdum at all, except after dahdum calls him out on typoing Unforgiven's name into a post instead of Anac. There really just doesn't seem to be anything in his posts at all. There's a lack of unhelpful reads. Multiple UNhelpful posts (after D1 and N1). A complete lack of response to Shiao and my concerns about him. Right now Darkfire, you're my number one scum read, and you get my vote. ##Vote: Darkfirex5 | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On December 30 2010 01:30 LSB wrote: What is mafia Bandwagoning- This is a town trait too That's right, whipping out old posts from one of the guides in the OP. I voted my strongest read D1, and I stand by it. Brood flipped town, that blows. Going to vote my strongest read D2. That read may change if something convincing comes up, but right now it hasn't. But I don't think all this talk of musical groups and horse-drawn transportation gets us anywhere. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but we can't no-lynch this game, Also, Darkfire HAS the scummiest play to me. I'm not voting because he's "being framed." I'm voting because of the same concerns I had before - I found his contributions during the you/Brood debates to be off. I find his comments after D1 and N1 to be off. I don't see anything of substance in his posts. He recently claims to be looking into Mufaa and dahdum, but again, all he did was quote someone else's post on Mufaa, and I don't see any sort of "looking into" on dahdum. He hasn't been helpful to town. He hasn't explained why. He's stated that he is doing something, but doesn't deliver. If you think I'm hopping on board because Darkfire is being "framed," who is framing him? I referenced Shiao's suspicions, yes. But I also referenced my own -- + Show Spoiler + On May 13 2012 07:41 austinmcc wrote: Assorted thoughts: ... Darkfire. Others have already mentioned this. As votes are coming in on Anac, says it's a "weak bandwagon," with weak reasoning behind it. An hour and a half later, drops his vote on Anac. Now finds Anac scummiest. Then he defends Brood, saying he wants "more posts" from one of the more active players at that point and time (based purely on filter length). At night, we get this: + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 11:32 Darkfirex5 wrote: I guess no one listened to me about the switch of the bandwagon with no solid evidence compared to the "safer" bet with Anacletus, I'll be going over the people who switch vote, i gtg for now but i believe i saw a mafia group bandwagoning to get it started. <-- ill be looking into that I have no idea what to make of that. He didn't think anac was scum until anac's self-vote, then decided anac was the safest/safer lynch? Complains about no solid evidence on Brood, but again, I think the evidence DID look bad for Brood. And if it didn't, what good evidence was there on Anac? Also, just very, very focused on bandwagoning in general, mentioning it a LOT. It's not necessarily a bad thing, and I still believe that at the end of D1, Brood looked the scummiest. Me, I read Shiao's death as eliminating one of the more vocal townies who was presenting a lot of reads. I was actually a little suspicious of his play before he flipped, but his flip tells me that he was actually just a vocal townie trying to push reads and get discussion going. Until I've got any evidence otherwise, I'm going to assume that he was taken out for being a townie who was participating and trying to make progress, not for any convoluted master plan on the part of the mafia team. | ||
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FirmTofu, Unforgiven, Mufaa, you guys have all said you're looking through filters, reading up. Any thoughts? | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 06:17 Darkfirex5 wrote: I'd suggest filtering BKEXE's posts. From what I'm reading of what he has posted, there isnt anying that makes me want to switch the bandwagon onto him (fairly) last minute. There isnt enough posts from him to make the acusation he is more mafia than that of Anacletus. I dislike this massive wagon switch because instead of going with the safest mafia guess, we switch it last minute to someone i think we need more posts from to prove he is mafia. I still really want a specific answer there, and others have mentioned this as well. What made you so sure Anac was scum, specifically? What led you to that conclusion, kept you there over Brood, etc. The other issue is where you respond to BioSC: On May 14 2012 12:16 Darkfirex5 wrote: BioSC filter my last few posts, i havent been talking about you. I've been trying to look into Mufaa and dahdum. You said you weren't getting anything off Mufaa, but what about dahdum? IF you're town, and IF you're going to be the lynch today, we need as much from you as we can get. What did you really look at from each, what reads did you get? I'm absolutely in agreement on the lurkers, and it may be my newbishness, but I'm having a hard time lynching someone who is lurking or semi-lurking over someone where I've got a few posts to analyze and they seem off. | ||
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On May 15 2012 07:24 Mufaa wrote: I voted for you because although I would like to vote dahdum I made a case and no one else seemed to like it as much. And you dodged half of my case on you, so I can hardly see why I should change my vote. Gah. We've got 2 players with 2 votes. Right now 2 votes to lynch. No real reason to be gaming things given that we don't need majority to lynch. Vote your biggest read. | ||
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Reading now Dark | ||
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