65-45 isn't as big of a split as you seem to think it is. And I'd say that the idiot is more likely to derail the process in the future, and the longer there is only one mafia in the game the more difficult I'd say it is to tell who it is. Literally all the one mafia has to do is defend himself and blend in while killing one person per night. The odds aren't that good if a few days are wasted talking about whoever the idiot is attacking. Whereas with two mafia left vs. 6 competent players, I see a much greater likelihood that the 6 can work together and find holes in the mafia's play. Long story short, this seems much more of a play-style thing than an objectively right or wrong situation. You prefer an overwhelming majority of numbers, I prefer to be able to have a group that is capable of finding the mafia through reason.

In any case though, Jailbreaker is IMO the better scum read than Nreekay, and also the worse player. But I have to agree, this lynch is going too easily. I'm going to look into any reasons why... Hopefully I'll be able to post some reasons for the easiness in a bit.

Mordanis

United States893 Posts

May 01 2012 18:28 GMT

#401

I'd love to explain if you'd tell me what you're confused with.

Mordanis

United States893 Posts

May 01 2012 18:44 GMT

#408

Anyways, I'd say that there are three main players who account for how much easier this lynching has gone than the previous one. First up is Golden, who had to have his arm twisted into voting for Veriat. He however has already gone through this several times, so I'd rather not go through it again.

Next is Nreekay, everyone's favorite! Last time, Nreekay voted for WhySoMuch. He is however the other candidate up for lynching, so barring a random vote or a vote for no-lynch, he had no options besides voting for Jailbreaker. There's really no analysis that can be done past this point, that I can think of at least.

Finally there's LazerMonkey. He voted for Aces last time, and I think we can all agree that Aces/Marvellosity seem pretty town-y, simply because the probability of having 2 mafia up for lynching the first day is stupidly low. There are other reasons, but I won't go into them in this post. They are however already in the thread, so anyone can find them. For this voting cycle, LazerMonkey voted with little pressure on him, and quite a while before the deadline. I am somewhat suspicious of this, so I'll be doing some research on LazerMonkey. Right after I grab some lunch.

Mordanis

United States893 Posts

May 01 2012 18:46 GMT

#410

Also, the debate between WhySoMuch and Marvellosity (and myself, admittedly) isn't really relevant. Both parties are satisfied, and I see no reason to stir up hate over an irrelevant argument.

Mordanis

United States893 Posts

May 01 2012 19:29 GMT

#414

dude. Calm down and post your case without throwing suspicion on everyone who voted for you. There may be time to save yourself, but that didn't help at all.....

Mordanis

United States893 Posts

May 01 2012 21:37 GMT

#420

I'm sensing a bit of a rage quit from Jailbreaker. Here's to hoping he flips red.

Even though marvellosity and I don't see eye to I on some issues, I definitely stand by his admonishment to get the lurkers back in action. @lurkers + semi-lurkers, we've only lynched lurkers so far. There is no reason to play defensively if you're town, just tell us what you think, and everything will be better for it. Its mighty hard to distinguish towny who doesn't post from mafia who doesn't post however.

Mordanis

United States893 Posts

May 01 2012 21:57 GMT

#423

Will Splinter be rejoining us or are we going to have another new player?

Mordanis

United States893 Posts

May 01 2012 22:00 GMT

#425

*sits in rapt attention with finger firmly attached to f5*

Mordanis

United States893 Posts

May 01 2012 22:08 GMT

#430

6-2, this could have gone better from a 9-2 start. And its going to be 5-2. Damn. Still looks like a winnable situation, but it'll be quite a bit harder from here.

Mordanis

United States893 Posts

May 01 2012 22:15 GMT

#437

I had completely forgotten about Splinter until just a little bit ago, and his being modkilled really hurt us. That really changes things, as Town now really needs to get the next lynch right. It's going to be a loooong night.

Mordanis

United States893 Posts

May 02 2012 22:00 GMT

#488

I thought I was going to have more time, but my class went over. Anyways, there are two possibilities that I've been mulling over. The first is that the mafia on D1 were against lynching Veriat the first day, and that the second day went easier because they all voted for JB. What I've been thinking more and more is that pehaps Veriat didn't have time to go through this all the way, so the mafia decided to sacrifice him so they would get "cred", and that JB got easily lynched because he was town and he looked very scummy. Veriat really didn't have all that great of a case against him, and I think most of us could agree that he was lynched mostly because we needed someone to lynch and there was a pretty solid bed of support for his lynch.

Mordanis

United States893 Posts

May 02 2012 22:02 GMT

#489

Some big swings in luck have been happening. First we get scum the first day. Then we lose 3 townies in 2 cycles. Then we lose no one. Marvellosity, I'm beginning to feel what you were talking about with pure numbers, even if its only an emotion thing right now.

Mordanis

United States893 Posts

May 03 2012 06:34 GMT

#501

Hey Marvellosity, what do you think is the case? Do you think the mafia lynched veriat the first day to blend in very well, and the fairly weak case against Veriat make the lynch hard? Or do you think that the mafia made the first day hard by voting for other players/ whatever else? Either way, Town lynched JB cuz he seemed so scummy, and mafia voted for him because if they didn't they'd risk a no-lynch or something.

Mordanis

United States893 Posts

May 03 2012 18:04 GMT

#538

Is Golden definitely out? I'm sort of worried that he's saying that he's just saying he's going to leave so we don't vote for him, and I'd love a host to explain what the situation is, just so we all know everything that's happening.

If golden is definitely out, I see no reason to lynch him. If he isn't out, then I'll have to read Marv's case closer and read through his filter myself.

Mordanis

United States893 Posts

May 03 2012 18:06 GMT

#540

Also, do you mind if I call you Marv?

Mordanis

United States893 Posts

May 04 2012 06:34 GMT

#578

This is rapidly becoming impossible with people arbitrarily leaving, replacements, huge swings of luck, etc.

@ SexDoll
Thanks for coming in, and welcome.

Anyways, my thoughts:
Lazer has only played one game on TL before, and that game he was (mis)lynched on the first day. IDK if that will excuse everything, but for me for this cycle, I see his previous excuse post as valid.

There has been little talk of Nreekay. There has been little talk from Nreekay. I'm suspicious of him, but I'll still hold on to my reasoning about him. Definitely worth looking into if things don't work as we'd like them to.

Golden/Sex Doll, I've felt some suspicion for you for quite a while. IDK, there was never really any response to Marv's case, and now its sort of hard to have one person defend another based on simply inheriting the same role.

In short, with still two mafia and 6 town, I'll likely vote Golden because Marv had a pretty decent case and replacements make the game so much more annoying.

Anyways, I've been trying to figure out the implications of mafia voting for/against Veriat, and what mafia would be trying to do right now. I haven't really checked out, I'm just re-evaluating. As I stated earlier (and no hate to the replacements), replacing players makes it nearly impossible to figure out the orientation of the combined player. This has temporarily discouraged me, but I should have a lot more time tomorrow to wade through things.

Mordanis

United States893 Posts

May 04 2012 17:08 GMT

#612

Well, we obviously need to keep moving forward, and Golden/SexDoll are probably the best vote right now. As much as I hate easy lynches, I don't see any other option right now.

## Vote: SexDoll

Mordanis

United States893 Posts

May 04 2012 23:38 GMT

#699

Perhaps we should lynch our strongest town reads, because the scum seem to be better town than town. I'm sorry sexdoll. FUUUUUUUUUUUU
'

Mordanis

United States893 Posts

May 04 2012 23:41 GMT

#700

sarcasm ^

Mordanis

United States893 Posts

May 05 2012 21:58 GMT

#713

Hi guys. I just shot Nreekay. SexDoll thought he was scum, and he had a lot more experience than I, so I hope this turns out well. If not, We are probably dead. Here's to hope *toasts the residents of Red Dwarf*.

+ Show Spoiler +

btw I'm roleclaiming Vigi, in case that wasn't clear.

Also, after looking back on things, I doubt the mafia bussed Veriat, because he was the role-blocker. It seems much more likely they'd bus a goon.