TL Mafia 'Area' LIII - Page 8

On April 26 2012 10:55 johnnywup wrote:
you said "can we lynch BM now?"

i was just poking fun that you cant vote at night time, since you said "now". jeez o.o

On April 27 2012 00:31 layabout wrote:

Well we know we don't have a vig reckless enough to make a sub-optimal shot night 1. Or that they did and BM is a gf or one of the two were jailed. or they shot somebody else who was a GF or one of them was jailed. It's as if all we actually know is that no shot went through.

Guys can you please stop all of this blue discussion. Unless you have some sort of ingenious plan for the blues that is vastly superior to them making their own decisions which are relatively straightforward then cut it out.

I was going to say that Risen is a better shot but after thinking about it i think that Ottoxlol is a better shot but we should actually shoot/lynch neither.

My thoughts on the implications of yesterdays lynch:

It is true that if ottoxlol flips red then risen's switch would have been so beneficial to mafia that he likely is too. Shooting risen we have a similar impact since the switch made him a target and he would have no good reason to put himself in the spotlight for being anti-town unless it was to save a teammate.
If Risen flips mafia then it is highly likely that his switch was to save a team-mate, which would be ottoxlol.
If Risen flips town then we can't really infer anything about ottoxlol's alignment since Risen didn't know it and would have vote switched for the reasons he gave.
If ottoxlol flips mafia then it's clear that Risen's switch did save mafia and the most reasonable explanation for this would be that he too is mafia.
If ottoxlol flips town then Risen would have switched a lynch that mafia had no real reason to change and we can infer that Risen is very likely town.

If we assume that nothing outlandish is happening then the following flips will lead to this:
Flip:
Risen => Risen Ottoxlol
Risen => Risen Ottoxlol
Ottoxlol => Risen Ottoxlol
Ottoxlol => Risen Ottoxlol

This means that if we are trying to be objective, ottoxlol's flip is the mosts valuable..
I believe that ottoxlol is town and that we are likely dealing with two town therefore we should not flip either.

On April 27 2012 03:38 Ottoxlol wrote:
Matt and laya said they will vote for me a lot before they did, if I am scum and Brood wanted to save me he could have voted sooner so Risen's swap is not required to save me.

On April 27 2012 03:57 ghost_403 wrote:
@Ottoxlol: No. Risen is not townie due to the fact that he screwed up the vote last night by swapping around his vote. He is scum due to the fact that he scewed up his vote last night by swapping around his vote. His vote minutes before the deadline got a townie lynched. He is scum.

On April 27 2012 03:53 ghost_403 wrote:
Addendum: Vig shots don't kill GF. Shoot Ottoxlol.

On April 27 2012 04:29 layabout wrote:

You don't think that scum would deliberately change the lynch target at the last second?

Or you don't think that they would try to pass it off as a mistake?

scum have done in the past, most notably
+ Show Spoiler [here] +

On April 27 2012 04:34 ghost_403 wrote:
@mattchew: Yes I am. That's because I think Ottoxlol is scum. I've made my position clear on that, and nothing has happened since then that would make me reconsider my position. In fact, the fact that we were so close to lynching him, and mislynched a townie instead makes me even more sure of that position. My position on Ottoxlol makes what happened last night make sense.

@Ottoxlol: Easy. You're not a townie.

@Marv: They didn't, which necessitated drastic measures. WIFOM warning: Perhaps they were preparing to let the town lynch Otto, and wanted to buy some townie credit through the exchange. Later on in the day, the Zeph movement picked up steam, allowing them the option of sacking Risen for Otto.

@johnny: There is a lot better chance of Risen arguing his way out of the lynch as "I'm a stupid townie" than "I voted in such a way that a townie was lynched". Makes sense to me. Also, you're ignoring the fact that there's no reason for a townie to do something so foolish as to switch his vote back after his vote caused a lynch. That's something scum would do.