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Yeah. We'll worry about that after BMs flip.
If BM flips town, its 6v3, then 5v3 after night kill. then we get a free scum in risen and sent, so its 5v2 then 4v2 after NK, then 4v1 and 3v1 after that NK (assuming the 3rd scum is the goon), which should be good enough to find the scum.
if BM flips goon its 7v2, no NKs available. then next day we lynch matt so its 7v1, which should be unlosable for town.
if BM flips GF, its 7v2, then after NK its 6v2, then we lynch sent for lying about being jk so its 6v1 (5v1 after NK assuming 3rd scum is goon)
All 3 situations are incredibly favored for town.
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Messed up my math, hold up, let me see if this still works
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yeah, i was being stupid there...but it may still work but we have to go all-in, in sorts. If BM flips town, town will be tied with scum, with 3:3. If town can get 3 on risen or sent before scum gets a lynch on a town, then the tie rule will lynch the scum. If its a GF it's 2:2 and we gotta do the same thing again the next day. If its Goon we are 3:2, and there shouldn't be a way to lose because scum is forced to reveal themselves in order to try and lynch a townie the previous day, and since we have majority we get the lynch unless a townie is being an idiot.
This will be really risky though, as everyone has to be f5ing the thread hardcore in order to get their votes in first. I understand if town feels like this is too much of a risk and we don't go through with it, but if we do it right we should win 100%
if BM flips scum we should be able to win ezpz however.
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I think that's because scum can coordinate an insta-lynch the moment the daypost starts. But with my plan, town can do the same thing.
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On May 03 2012 12:07 Mattchew wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2012 12:00 johnnywup wrote:
yeah, i was being stupid there...but it may still work but we have to go all-in, in sorts. If BM flips town, town will be tied with scum, with 3:3. If town can get 3 on risen or sent before scum gets a lynch on a town, then the tie rule will lynch the scum. If its a GF it's 2:2 and we gotta do the same thing again the next day. If its Goon we are 3:2, and there shouldn't be a way to lose because scum is forced to reveal themselves in order to try and lynch a townie the previous day, and since we have majority we get the lynch unless a townie is being an idiot.
This will be really risky though, as everyone has to be f5ing the thread hardcore in order to get their votes in first. I understand if town feels like this is too much of a risk and we don't go through with it, but if we do it right we should win 100%
if BM flips scum we should be able to win ezpz however. 2 more things. if/when BM flips town, if we didn't lose right there and then, we don't know the 3rd scum member, only sent/risen. You seem to be trying to take the super lazy and easy way out of this game. you also seem to be trying to sell the easy win to everyone else. your posting has earned my FOS as the third scum
We will know the 3rd Scum member, because in order for scum to get a lynch on a townie, they have to coordinate and mass lynch a townie, which will go against the lynch of the confirmed scum based on BMs flip. We won't have to look, they'll reveal themselves to us.
On May 03 2012 12:07 PaqMan wrote:
So johnny you want to lynch Mattchew if BM flips scum?
If BM flips goon we lynch mattchew, if BM flips gf we lynch sent. Sent is only confirmed Jailer if BM flips Goon.
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same issue with my plan with sent, it would end up being 3:3 tomorrow if sent flips town. I even got a FoS from that, so why are you suggesting the same thing with a different person?
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There's also reasons outside testing that I think that BM is scum. For example his town meta he may be inactive but he does make read and push reads at least somewhat. This game he hasn't at all. He's inactive in both, but in his town meta he does make at least somewhat useful posts.
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I've felt BM was scum for a long long time. This happens to be a time where it could be very very useful for town to lynch him. If there's a time to lynch him, nows the time. I think BM is scum and lynching him will get us another scum, 2 maybe.
On May 03 2012 12:17 PaqMan wrote:
What if BM flips goon, Sentinel fake-claimed, and Mattchew was telling the truth? I think it's possible that BM withheld his kp to support Sentinel by giving him more town cred in case the real blue (Mattchew) claims.
it's possible but its a waste of a KP for scum and it doesn't instantly make sent scum if his "jail" didn't stop a shot. if sent fake claimed then scum should have still shot, because it makes BM look like not a goon and he doesn't get lynched, while still using his KP. This makes BM being goon more likely and sent telling the truth more likely. The other possibility is that BM is town and Sent is scum, which is the only real situation where we have to do the insta-vote after day post.
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Even before I came up with my plan I came up with (what i think is) good reasoning behind BM being a Goon and Matt being a GF
On May 03 2012 11:06 johnnywup wrote:
yeah you're right, none of your posts make sense as town.
this post is assuming your claim is true.
maybe i am rushing my posts. the point is there was 0 reason to not claim and 0 reason to lynch someone who wasnt confirmed scum absolutely 0. i can't think of a single reason why you wouldn't claim. you let town sheep a confirmed scum and theres no way a town would let that happen. If a confirmed scum is pushing someone you thought was scum, do you think somethings suspicious there? maybe? it makes no sense.
another thing to address is the timing of your claim. As scum, it makes perfect sense really. If you let town sheep a jk because they successfully blocked a shot, then you lose your kp. Risking losing a GF to lynch the JK in order to mislynch and keep your KP makes perfect sense. It was a big risk and it didn't pay off. At the very least, if you failed, you'd be lynched and your Goon wouldn't be, so you'd have a KP for at least tonight. I'd be willing to bet you're a GF and BM is the last Goon.
##unvote
##vote Bill Murray
and to add to this, Matt thought that in the case of a tie, Scum wins. So, if he could possibly get a mislynch today, then scum (he thought) would win. If they lynch him, hey hes the GF so goon still gets to kill, so then its its still lylo, and Scum has ANOTHER shot to cause a mislynch. If we correctly lynch again, they STILL only need a mislynch. So scum has (he thought) 3 shots if scum mislynched today.
So yeah, I'm pretty sure Matt is a GF and BM is a Goon.
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EBWOP: 3 shots to mislynch, not 3 shots if scum mislynched today
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On May 03 2012 12:40 Mattchew wrote:
johnny, have you ever played a game where if # of scum = # of town scum didn't win?
no, but i've never played a game where #of scum= #of town either
and I love how you completely ignore Sentinel in all of your reasoning.
i can't find reasons elsewhere? I'll look into that just for you though.
by voting BM you are saying you believe Sent and are willing the bet the entire game on a scum read on the craziest player in the game.
Hm, yeah I would. But it's not completely up to me, others have to agree. I noticed that there hasn't been a big bandwagon to lynch BM right as the day started, which makes me feel like BM is indeed scum. Let's call it the same gut feeling that told me ottox was town
Do you think that I would have pushed BM's lynch (and push away from a VE lynch) as hard as I did day 1 if he was my teammate?
Yes, because he's BM, and he's been able to get away with shit "just because he's BM", as you so eloquently put it at the beginning of the game (funny how that statement can hurt you later on huh?). So you thought he wouldn't get lynched for the same reasons you said that we should policy lynch him for.
You are literally taking the laziest way out with this situation
It's also the smartest, IMO. if there's facts that people can find and present that heavily incriminate either you or sent, I'd definitely reconsider. But since no one wants to, I think this is the best way to get the best chances of killing the scum. 3/8 players left are scum. So if we throw a dart at a name we still have a decent chance of hitting scum. Killing someone I have a case against and have actively thought is scum is just a plus.
answers in green
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On May 03 2012 12:59 Mattchew wrote:Show nested quote +it's also the smartest, IMO. if there's facts that people can find and present that heavily incriminate either you or sent, I'd definitely reconsider. 1.How about the fact that sent says he didn't jail anyone night 1 because he had no one else that makes sense for him to fake claim jailing Show nested quote +Hm, yeah I would. But it's not completely up to me, others have to agree. I noticed that there hasn't been a big bandwagon to lynch BM right as the day started, which makes me feel like BM is indeed scum. Let's call it the same gut feeling that told me ottox was town 2.Most people hadn't posted before I claimed. This means nothing. 3.I fail to see how this hurts me now. Because I wanted to lynch and actively pushed to lynch the person you are now trying to lynch, that makes me scummy? You don't think my pushing of Bill Murray was genuine?
1.I'll let you in on a secret: In the I'm a cop you idiot mafia I accidentally healed someone who wasn't in the game because I was busy, as a doctor. On day 1. So it could happen.
2. Fair enough.
3.The comment was snide. I wasn't serious about it hurting you. I just thought it was cool using your own words against you in a way. And I'm actually not sure if your pushing is genuine. It looks genuine to me but fuck ._. @_@ TBH I'm just as confused as anyone. I have a scum read on BM and I'm pushing it, that's all I really know. Your claim seemed scummy to me so I thought you're scum but now I'm just not sure. I feel BM is scum and that's the one thing I do know. If BM is town we still have a small chance based on my plan. I feel like this is our last chance. I swear BM has to be scum, if he's not I don't even fucking know man.
Pre-edit: I guess we don't have a small chance if BM flips town. I'm gonna really think things through now.
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On May 03 2012 13:10 Mattchew wrote:
lol and risen de-lurks to pre-amble iGrok's mod note... looks like scum got nervous their win con wasn't gonna be reached by lynching BM and yelled at iGrok to post
Johnny you realize you are voting with this scum (risen) right?
if bm flips goon that makes risen green imo. but i'm gonna have to look through a lot of things before I come to a final decision, since 3:3 is auto scum win i'm gonna have to really think about this.
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On May 03 2012 13:13 Mattchew wrote:
basically johnny and paq, you guys have to stop being lazy and really think this decision ALL THE WAY THROUGH, analyzing every party involved
I'm aware of that now. I thought we could win based on a good plan but I didn't do the math right or w/e. I was being lazy but I thought we had a good chance of winning if we could execute my plan, which I know now is flawed.
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On May 02 2012 09:11 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
If BKEXE is by some chance goon and maybe iGrok didn't count my thing or whatever, he dies and town wins.
If BKEXE is not, then I'm right (as I usually am) and we're down either a bad player or (more likely) one scum.
Risen is definitely scum, I don't know where BM fits into this but I'd drop him down to #8 in that chart of mine, especially since he has absolutely no evidence I'm not JK. I claimed JK because even if Otto does get lynched, we need to find the goon.
Also, when marv died he was talking about me possibly being scum. I wouldn't want to be in purgatory. I want to be regarded as townie so that my reasoning is properly counted. So I claimed. And now all is clear.
Now, my dear friend Risen, I have one last question for you.
Are you the servant, or are you the master?
was aware BKEXE would not flip goon :o
On May 02 2012 09:17 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
BM-Risen-Mystery third member... I'm running out of options here.
8 of us left, 3 scum. 7 minimum left by daylight gives us one last day.
Shit. All my plans banked on Otto being scum.
I can't believe I missed this.
now matt and sent...how is it both of you think risen is scum? I'm guessing one is a bus and one is a genuine thinking Risen is scum. The other possibility is that Risen is town and the scum of the two is misleading town into mislynching a townie and the townie of the two has a bad read.
I'd like to think the townie has a good read, so it's looking possible that Risen is scum, whether you believe Sent or Matt is telling the truth.
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On May 03 2012 13:34 PaqMan wrote:
I don't understand how or why, as scum, Sentinel could/would have made the JAIK breadcrumb on D1.
Gives you something to claim later as scum if you need to claim for whatever plan scum has.
On May 03 2012 13:35 Risen wrote:
I quit.
What?
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##unvote
##vote Risen
I think we have the best chance of hitting scum in risen, regardless of who's telling the truth between sent and matt. also his "I quit" doesn't help his cause.
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I missed this
On May 03 2012 09:54 Bill Murray wrote:
Who did you Jail last night, Sentinel?
I don't believe Mattchew
Let's review the facts here: Mattchew claims Vig (and says that BM is town, risen+sent is scum)
Sent claims JK (and says BM is goon, Sent is scum)
BM doesn't believe the guy that's calling him town
Let's assume BM is town here, Matt is Scum: He thinks Matt is trying to give him towncred so he can help get a lynch on some other townie or something like that. (I'd like confirmation from BM here)
Let's assume BM is town here, Matt is Vig: Same as above, but Mattchew is trying to lynch a scum instead
Let's assume BM is scum here, Matt is town: Doesn't make Sense
Let's assume BM is scum here, Matt is Vig: Doesn't make Sense.
Thoughts? I don't like thinking about it but BM might actually just be a bad townie.
I'm really fucking confused.
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Paqman I already said I did the math wrong and the plan doesn't work. I'm not trying to get on a quick wagon. I don't give a shit if that's what you think, I'm confused as fuck and I'm just trying to catch scum.
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Wait fuck.
On April 27 2012 18:46 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
Risen. Brood. Otto. I want one of them to die today. Preferably Ottoxlol since they were protecting him, he has the reddest read of the three, and having one less goon in the game would surely be nice.
##Vote: Ottoxlol
Brood + otto were town.
when marv was alive:
On April 28 2012 10:06 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2012 07:17 Ottoxlol wrote:On April 28 2012 04:55 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:Right now, this is what I think on MG - if Ottoxlol flips red, then it's pretty obvious MG was trying to silence layabout who was pointing out 2-3 scums. Layabout was the one who pushed the Brood-Risen-Otto-scum triumvirate the hardest, and MG kinda just backs away from the ordeal at the end: On April 26 2012 09:03 MidnightGladius wrote:
At least all of those votes moving around at the deadline should yield something interesting. And that's our 4-man scumteam. GG If the triumvirate would be scum why on earth scum MG would say that? I took MG's post to be kinda observing, as if a chessmaster pulled some sort of elaborate trap on his opponent, then re-emerged in the audience with a fake moustache to say "That guy fell into a really elaborate trap!" Except it's not that elaborate. And the fake moustache doesn't seem to be working. @marv's case on risen I really think it was a bus to try and distance himself from Ottoxlol and decided to come back to his rescue. Back in Werewolves (was it?) I was scum, and our original plan between the 3 of us was to take polar opposite viewpoints so in case one of us went down it wouldn't lead back to the other two, in case immediately.I still can't explain though, why he would come to Otto's rescue if both were scum. This is fishy. Although now he's voting on his buddy to make amends? Or are they all turning on each other so we don't hit all 4 of them?
marv distancing himself from ottox. BOTH WERE TOWN.
also marv thought sent was scum, and that night marv died. Fuckfuckfuckfuck.
Sorry Matt. You're right, I should have looked through Sent's filter. He's listing Risen with Otto+Marv+BKEXE, who were all town.
##unvote Risen
And so I'm finding myself believing mattchew now. Fuck. I'm so confused.
Note: I know I'm flipflopping a lot but that's because I'm unsure of my opinions and I'm finding new facts that make me think otherwise my old opinions, etc. I'm not trying to follow bandwagons. I'm trying to catch scum.
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EPT
