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On April 13 2012 08:19 vonKlaust wrote:
I voted for HiroPro because he started to switch around the casuality. And his inconcistancy on changing suspects. On the matter of casuality he claimed:
1. I suspected Xatalos
2. I supported his case.
What actually happened:
1. Xatalos made a case.
2. I supported the case.
3. I no longer supported the case.
4. I started to susspect Xatalos.
As I wrote before, I can agree with that what he wrote isn't totally inconcistant, it's still wierd.
I'm not trying to misrepresent what you said. I read your posts from the ones that Xatalos quoted (there was one post in which you said that you agreed with the case against ArticFox and another post that said that Xatalos was your biggest scum read) and assumed that they were all around the same time. That was my mistake.
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EBWOP:
Ofc I can have you as my prime suspect even though I(probably wrongly) supported your case against ArticFox. I can't see how you think that is wierd.
This sentence from you also lead me to believe that you had Xatalos as your prime suspect, while supporting the ArticFox case at the same time. If that's not what you meant, ok.
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Yea, looking back, when I ignore the stuff that i misread, your response seems fine. While I still don't really like how you kept saying you were lost or that you didn't make the vote against Xatalos, I think there are townie explanations for that behavior also, and it's not enough to lynch you.
##Unvote
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Back from class. Going through filters for willz, yomi, and broodking. For people who are wondering why I am lurking, I sleep from 1-8 CDT and then I have classes until about 4-5 CDT, so obviously I can't post until after that. And being in different time zones doesn't help.
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Willz - I agree with his logic about trumpetarm/dittert having similar posting early on, silly to differentiate between them. Seemed very logical about the dispute between myself and vonKlaust. kind of defensive about dittert's vote on him (seems overly bothered that someone might tunnel him), (especially considering that no one else seems to agree with Dittert's general reads/ideas). I like the fact that he was against broodking's idea of concealing scum reads. When it looked like he was going to be lynched though instead of seeming defensive, he was much more helpful for town (posting his general reads and talking about targets after he flips green)
Overall, I have a null read on willz; I don't like how he was so defensive about Dittert's vote on him (and the general weird interaction with him saying I'm just trying to help Dittert out), but at the same time he does post his opinions on other people and he has a general town demeanor by focusing on making/responding to cases.
BroodKingEXE - Early on spent a lot of time discussing policy - not much to read into him from that portion of the day. Makes a vote on Dittert without much of a case (based on Dittert voting for lurkers, not really something that is overly scummy). Argument about hiding scum reads very anti-town in my opinion; without sharing those reads, town cannot make good votes. Don't really understand why he wanted to consolidate voting so early. Unvotes Dittert when Dittert starts posting again. Votes for willz saying that he is trying to shoot down other people's posts and is denying open discussion (very strange in my opinion because BroodKing himself posted something similar saying that people should not give out scum reads because mafia might kill them). Voting for yomi because he says he doesn't want mafia to switch and swing the vote (even though he says that he believes willz is more likely to be scum).
Scum read on BroodKing overall - I don't like the posts where he says not to share scum reads. The vote and case on willz is very strange, since a lot of the things he accusses willz of are similar to what BroodKing himself has been doing, and I don't really understand the vote switch onto yomi - to me it seems more like BroodKing was worried that willz was looking townie to other people and thus switched to a new target.
yomi - A lot of yomi's posting seems to be calling out various people as mafia without providing solid reasoning. I don't agree with vote on Dittert (Dittert seems much more like new town to me than mafia (RNG proposal is not really something to lynch over). Talking about ignoring various people in the thread because he doesn't like them is not town behavior at all. Yomi is scummy in my opinion.
##Vote: BroodKingEXE
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Going to go through stuff that I missed and post my thought on those now (ignoring the stuff I just posted about willz, BroodKing, and yomi)
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Thoughts while going through the stuff that I missed (ignoring my reads on BroodKing,willz,yomi that I already gave) :
I saw a post saying that they think KharadBanar is mafia because he seems a lot less useful than he was in Newbie Mini Mafia VI. I don't really agree with this - if you look at Kharad's filter from day 1 in Newbie Mini Mafia VI, if anything it's more useless as he spent a lot of it talking about policy and some random personality questionnaire that FourFace came up. It doesn't really seem very different from this game with the sole big difference I see being that in this game, Kharad provided 3 scum reads that he had fairly early on, while he did nothing of the sort in Mini VI and instead stayed focused on either voting a lurker (early on day 1) or voting for the person he thought more scummy of the two biggest vote-getters (later in day 1). Nothing from KharadBanar so far leads me to believe that he is scum.
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The Blue Shift
On April 12 2012 15:57 Xatalos wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On April 12 2012 08:58 ArcticFox wrote:
I hope our blues this game are as clever as you were that game, KB.
Discussion is good. Idle chat is not.
As you newer people confirm, please post shortly after with your thoughts on these policies as well. First of all: why discuss about blue roles at all? This is the same mistake I did in A Game of Thrones Mafia - we kept talking about blue roles in the Mafia chat, so subconsciously I mentioned possibilities about the blue roles even in the normal thread. And what do you mean with "idle chat is not good"? So far this "idle chat" has been very useful (certainly much more useful than silence or the trolling/flaming we had in A Game of Thrones Mafia...). Also, you keep mentioning policies, which is something Mafia loves to do - you can appear somewhat useful without actually contributing anything. + Show Spoiler +On April 12 2012 09:21 ArcticFox wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2012 09:16 Dittert wrote:
Not RNG lynch... RNG proposed lynch. I was trying to gauge people's reactions to things. If we RNG and hit scum, surely at least 2 people will jump up to defend that person or risk losing one of their own. If no one really cares about killing that person, they're probably town. Verrrrry WIFOM reasoning. Be careful of that. It sounds logical, but discussing motive rarely leads anywhere. What if scum decides to bus? What if someone jumps up to defend because they think RNG is silly, or they have a blue read on him? This line of reasoning leads nowhere fast, and it's best to ignore it. You're tripping my scum-o-meter pretty hard right now. Got any better suggestions? There he goes again, talking about blue roles. It's too bad it probably ends now after I mention this, but I would have wanted to see how many times he can talk about blue roles / blue reads during the game, since this is the second time already in only 7 hours...
On April 13 2012 02:51 Xatalos wrote:
Talking about policy lynches or blue roles isn't Mafia-like only because of my metagame experiences - it's universally not something town SHOULD be doing.
In the beginning of the game, Xatalos made a case against ArticFox based on his discussion of blues and policy lynching. But if you look at Xatalos's posting on the first night, almost all of it is concentrated around telling blues to perform certain actions:
+ Show Spoiler +On April 14 2012 08:39 Xatalos wrote:
I'm not sure if all the roles are included in this game (?), but here are some suggestions for night actions:
Vigilante: yomi (this I have explained before)
Jailer: Xatalos (I may not be a veteran, but at least I'm active and a threatening presence for Mafia, so I wouldn't be surprised if they chose to shoot me tonight)
Detective: don't want to suggest anything for you, since there is a Framer
Doctor: hmm... I don't have extreme confidence in anyone being town right now, but maybe Acrofales, vonKlaust, KharadBanar or Willz - none of them really strike me as Mafia at the moment
If nothing else, this list will at least create some WIFOM to make Mafia's night actions harder. Good night! On April 14 2012 15:19 Xatalos wrote:
Dittert suggested a Vigi shot on you, which I might find a good idea in other circumstances, but I'm willing to see more from you (your later play on Day 1 was very pro-town, while yomi hasn't played pro-town so far). And a yomi Vigi shot will likely give us more information than shooting you + if yomi gets lynched tomorrow anyway, it's pointless to waste a day on him rather than shooting him now. On April 14 2012 19:24 Xatalos wrote:
I wonder why this thread got so silent while I was sleeping. Acrofales, Willz, I'm most interested in hearing your thoughts about the Willz/yomi/BroodKing lynch event and what should be done next (Mafia reads, town reads, anything). Do you agree with Vigi shooting yomi or not? On April 14 2012 21:07 Xatalos wrote:
I hope the Jailer jails me though. It's a win-win for me: I can't die, and it's proved I am not a Mafia Goon (Roleblocker and Framer are harder to prove being roleblocked during the night, but if for example the Framer is lynched and it gets revealed later someone was roleblocked tonight, I'm already confirmed then - and even if I were to be Framer, then it is clear that the Detective's investigations can be trusted - I really can't see a reason not to jail me).
I agree with the Vigilante saying out loud his target at the deadline. He only has one shot, so he's just a vanilla townie after that (no point for Mafia to roleblock him anymore) AND then he is confirmed town (unless Mafia would take a HUGE risk and pretend being Vigilante like that). Shooting yomi goes a bit against this, though, because it's easier to pretend being Vigilante now... But I definitely don't think it's worth it to shoot someone else just because of that.
Blue roles work best when town doesn't know what they are going to do or who they are; the risk from mafia hits or roleblocks is too high. But yet Xatalos continued to push attempts to direct blue roles and figure out other people's opinions on their actions. When you combine this with his sudden reversal on whether or not to discuss blue roles, it's scummy as hell.
The Distraction Factor
When you look at Xatalos's posting, it's all over the place. Irrelevant comparisions to a previous mafia game he played, superficial reads on pretty much every person in the game, suggestions on perhaps "lynching for information", constant speculation on well "if this person is mafia/town, then...". These kind of posts appear to be pro-town, when all they really accomplish is crowding out actual analysis and arguments. Xatalos's goal isn't to find out who mafia is, it's to identify several possible candidates to lynch and then focus on the one that he thinks town would be willing to follow through on. That's why in the beginning of the game, Xatalos made numerous posts where he would declare a different primary lynch target and then along with that, provide a list of 3-4 other names who he was willing to lynch.
On April 12 2012 16:17 Xatalos wrote:
People I'm fine with lynching right now: ArcticFox, Dittert, yomi, imallinson. I'm pretty sure at least 1-2 of these players are Mafia. If you four want to clear yourselves in my eyes, something major needs to happen. I suggest everyone to read my case on ArcticFox and vote for him. I'd put his chances of being Mafia at 70-80%, which is extremely high for me considering it's this early. I also want to see his response, though, but I don't know what would convince me otherwise at this point (I guess an EVEN stronger Mafia read on someone else, which isn't an easy feat to achieve!).
On April 12 2012 18:18 Xatalos wrote:
Actually, KharadBanar's fake pressure voting is the exact same tactic I used in A Game of Thrones as Mafia. Thanks for pointing that out, Acrofales. It definitely casts doubt on him, so I wouldn't be against lynching him. Still, he's not the best lynch target for now. I say ArcticFox and Dittert are our best Mafia reads at the moment. Anyone else want to vote?
##Vote: Xatalos
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On April 15 2012 19:06 Xatalos wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On April 15 2012 11:13 HiroPro wrote:The Blue ShiftShow nested quote +On April 12 2012 15:57 Xatalos wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On April 12 2012 08:58 ArcticFox wrote:
I hope our blues this game are as clever as you were that game, KB.
Discussion is good. Idle chat is not.
As you newer people confirm, please post shortly after with your thoughts on these policies as well. First of all: why discuss about blue roles at all? This is the same mistake I did in A Game of Thrones Mafia - we kept talking about blue roles in the Mafia chat, so subconsciously I mentioned possibilities about the blue roles even in the normal thread. And what do you mean with "idle chat is not good"? So far this "idle chat" has been very useful (certainly much more useful than silence or the trolling/flaming we had in A Game of Thrones Mafia...). Also, you keep mentioning policies, which is something Mafia loves to do - you can appear somewhat useful without actually contributing anything. + Show Spoiler +On April 12 2012 09:21 ArcticFox wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2012 09:16 Dittert wrote:
Not RNG lynch... RNG proposed lynch. I was trying to gauge people's reactions to things. If we RNG and hit scum, surely at least 2 people will jump up to defend that person or risk losing one of their own. If no one really cares about killing that person, they're probably town. Verrrrry WIFOM reasoning. Be careful of that. It sounds logical, but discussing motive rarely leads anywhere. What if scum decides to bus? What if someone jumps up to defend because they think RNG is silly, or they have a blue read on him? This line of reasoning leads nowhere fast, and it's best to ignore it. You're tripping my scum-o-meter pretty hard right now. Got any better suggestions? There he goes again, talking about blue roles. It's too bad it probably ends now after I mention this, but I would have wanted to see how many times he can talk about blue roles / blue reads during the game, since this is the second time already in only 7 hours... Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 02:51 Xatalos wrote:
Talking about policy lynches or blue roles isn't Mafia-like only because of my metagame experiences - it's universally not something town SHOULD be doing. In the beginning of the game, Xatalos made a case against ArticFox based on his discussion of blues and policy lynching. But if you look at Xatalos's posting on the first night, almost all of it is concentrated around telling blues to perform certain actions: + Show Spoiler +On April 14 2012 08:39 Xatalos wrote:
I'm not sure if all the roles are included in this game (?), but here are some suggestions for night actions:
Vigilante: yomi (this I have explained before)
Jailer: Xatalos (I may not be a veteran, but at least I'm active and a threatening presence for Mafia, so I wouldn't be surprised if they chose to shoot me tonight)
Detective: don't want to suggest anything for you, since there is a Framer
Doctor: hmm... I don't have extreme confidence in anyone being town right now, but maybe Acrofales, vonKlaust, KharadBanar or Willz - none of them really strike me as Mafia at the moment
If nothing else, this list will at least create some WIFOM to make Mafia's night actions harder. Good night! On April 14 2012 15:19 Xatalos wrote:
Dittert suggested a Vigi shot on you, which I might find a good idea in other circumstances, but I'm willing to see more from you (your later play on Day 1 was very pro-town, while yomi hasn't played pro-town so far). And a yomi Vigi shot will likely give us more information than shooting you + if yomi gets lynched tomorrow anyway, it's pointless to waste a day on him rather than shooting him now. On April 14 2012 19:24 Xatalos wrote:
I wonder why this thread got so silent while I was sleeping. Acrofales, Willz, I'm most interested in hearing your thoughts about the Willz/yomi/BroodKing lynch event and what should be done next (Mafia reads, town reads, anything). Do you agree with Vigi shooting yomi or not? On April 14 2012 21:07 Xatalos wrote:
I hope the Jailer jails me though. It's a win-win for me: I can't die, and it's proved I am not a Mafia Goon (Roleblocker and Framer are harder to prove being roleblocked during the night, but if for example the Framer is lynched and it gets revealed later someone was roleblocked tonight, I'm already confirmed then - and even if I were to be Framer, then it is clear that the Detective's investigations can be trusted - I really can't see a reason not to jail me).
I agree with the Vigilante saying out loud his target at the deadline. He only has one shot, so he's just a vanilla townie after that (no point for Mafia to roleblock him anymore) AND then he is confirmed town (unless Mafia would take a HUGE risk and pretend being Vigilante like that). Shooting yomi goes a bit against this, though, because it's easier to pretend being Vigilante now... But I definitely don't think it's worth it to shoot someone else just because of that.
Blue roles work best when town doesn't know what they are going to do or who they are; the risk from mafia hits or roleblocks is too high. But yet Xatalos continued to push attempts to direct blue roles and figure out other people's opinions on their actions. When you combine this with his sudden reversal on whether or not to discuss blue roles, it's scummy as hell. The Distraction FactorWhen you look at Xatalos's posting, it's all over the place. Irrelevant comparisions to a previous mafia game he played, superficial reads on pretty much every person in the game, suggestions on perhaps "lynching for information", constant speculation on well "if this person is mafia/town, then...". These kind of posts appear to be pro-town, when all they really accomplish is crowding out actual analysis and arguments. Xatalos's goal isn't to find out who mafia is, it's to identify several possible candidates to lynch and then focus on the one that he thinks town would be willing to follow through on. That's why in the beginning of the game, Xatalos made numerous posts where he would declare a different primary lynch target and then along with that, provide a list of 3-4 other names who he was willing to lynch. Show nested quote +On April 12 2012 16:17 Xatalos wrote:
People I'm fine with lynching right now: ArcticFox, Dittert, yomi, imallinson. I'm pretty sure at least 1-2 of these players are Mafia. If you four want to clear yourselves in my eyes, something major needs to happen. I suggest everyone to read my case on ArcticFox and vote for him. I'd put his chances of being Mafia at 70-80%, which is extremely high for me considering it's this early. I also want to see his response, though, but I don't know what would convince me otherwise at this point (I guess an EVEN stronger Mafia read on someone else, which isn't an easy feat to achieve!). Show nested quote +On April 12 2012 18:18 Xatalos wrote:
Actually, KharadBanar's fake pressure voting is the exact same tactic I used in A Game of Thrones as Mafia. Thanks for pointing that out, Acrofales. It definitely casts doubt on him, so I wouldn't be against lynching him. Still, he's not the best lynch target for now. I say ArcticFox and Dittert are our best Mafia reads at the moment. Anyone else want to vote? ##Vote: Xatalos Alright... I can't say your case doesn't have some merit, but I have to disagree with some points. Also, I'm glad you actually made a thought-out case against me (compared to the lackluster case you made earlier). 1) I was certainly somewhat over-analyzing blue/policy talk in the beginning (for partly meta reasons), but you have to consider that there wasn't much else suspicious going on at that point. It was the MOST suspicious thing I saw happening at the time, so although talking about policy lynching or blue roles early on Day 1 isn't the best Mafia tell, it was something to start with and possibly force Mafia slips (either from the target, from the people jumping on the bandwagon or from the people defending the target). I may have used some excessively strong words against ArcticFox for example, but pressure isn't really pressure if I just vaguely say "you might be a bit suspicious" or something, right? If I had to lynch at that exact moment, I would have lynched ArcticFox because nothing more suspicious had been said yet (in my opinion), but my opinion on him started to slowly shift and was pretty much a townie read during the night. 2) Speculating about blue powers may not be nearly as useful as talking about Mafia reads (and it would certainly be something easy for Mafia to talk about), but I did that for a couple of reasons. A) I wanted to get yomi Vigi shot to kill my strongest Mafia read right away and to resolve the doubt surrounding the events of Day 1. B) I wanted to ensure both I and Acrofales would live to see Day 2: I don't know if there is both a Jailer and a Doctor, but I figured Mafia wouldn't dare to shoot either me or Acrofales after I made that open suggestion. The Jailer and/or Doctor could then freely heal whoever they liked, and I and Acrofales would be most likely protected by the sheer fear of the Mafia to prevent wasting their valuable KP. The longer the game goes on, the better for town, so not getting to kill anyone is a hard blow for Mafia (even the risk of it would make them think twice before shooting me or Acrofales). 3) My play has been quite "all over the place" and a bit spammy, and I can try to post less and with more certainty, but I don't feel like it's a good idea to just wait until there is a very strong case able to be made. If we just wait in silence while nobody says matters of relevance, or anything, waiting for a really strong suspicion before saying anything... Mafia could just play passive and do nothing noticeable. There even was something like this in a guide: "Polite and careful play is the downfall of many town teams." The same can be said for spam, of course, and maybe I have been a bit too much on the side of aggression and spam. But I still feel like it's better than to wait in silence and only post when you have a very solid case against someone (where would that case be made from, if everyone just talked politely and never started accusing each other?). I have also one other thing to say. I know this might seem weird, but I came up with a theory about why Willz and yomi could both well be town. I was most suspicious of yomi as I went to sleep, but as I was waking up I came up with a theory I feel could potentially make a lot of sense. I don't want to say it out loud yet, though (I have a good reason, but if there is a lot of demand, I can do it... although I don't know if it's a wise move right now). Considering the chance yomi is town, I'm not absolutely sure who I would want to push for now. Dittert has definitely been useless, but IF he flips town, we are in a pretty bad spot (his town flip would reveal pretty much nothing new, and only his Mafia flip would be useful for us). So this is a play I would call as "high risk, high reward". On the other hand, I wouldn't definitely want to have someone like Dittert with me in a lategame situation of 3 town & 2 Mafia, for example. So his lynch isn't a total waste in any case, although it would only give new information in case he flipped Mafia. Since I don't have a very strong Mafia read at the moment, I might as well also vote for Dittert and hope for the best.... ##Vote: Dittert
This post is a sham. Xatalos offers absolutely no explanation for the discrepancy between him making a case on ArcticFox based on talking about blues and then trying to direct and control blue actions himself at night (other than some bs about oh well you know it wasn't the best or most useful thing i could have done. but you know it was good it was good i tell you). He makes a vote switch from yomi to Dittert because he's scared that there's an actual case on him, so he needs to focus attention on an easy target to lynch (Notice how he doesn't base his vote switch on actual reads or reasoning; it's just bs about how "oh this will probably gives us better info"). And now a guy who was acting so cocky and confident early on is like "oh yeah i made mistakes, my credibility dropped, but still guys you gotta trust me just because). Xatalos is mafia. Do not let him escape.
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The Last Will and Testament of HiroPro
Lynch Xatalos. Easy step. Obviously you do that first thing in the daytime. Don't listen to anything he has to say. Don't address him or tell him anything; just lynch him.
DO NOT LISTEN TO WHAT ACROFALES SAYS. I know many of you have Acrofales as a very strong town read. I don't; Acrofales has been a scum read in my notes since day 1. I don't have the time to fully outline a case against Acrofales, but I'll try to summarize my thoughts here. Read through his filter closely. Acrofales does not post actual analysis; instead what he does is call out certain people who are not posting and then proceed to make "connections" between certain people who he will arbitrarily label as scummy. By basing all of his cases on these "connections", Acrofales avoids taking responsibility for votes and reads. Everything is already set out for him and indisputable. These connection posts do not help town; all they do is get people speculating on which people are sided with certain other people and thus must be either both town or both mafia. It distracts from actual reads and scum-hunting. This guy's role is the deceiver.
I have no clear reads on the third mafia member (and the small reads I can post on the people I have not mentioned are not worth posting). Good luck searching for him.
If you think there is some sort of connection between myself and Dittert (aka been listening too much to Acrofales/yomi), get rid of that thought. My flip shows absolutely nothing about Dittert - I have no connection whatsoever to him. He is neither strongly town nor strongly mafia in my view. That being said, I have a slight town read on him. Ignore the first 2 days and evaluate him based on what you see in the coming day/night period. DO NOT LYNCH HIM TOMORROW IF FOR SOME REASON YOU THINK HE IS MAFIA (Lynch Xatalos, then Acrofales).
DO NOT LYNCH FOR INFORMATION. Focus on what people say, how they say it, and go with your strongest mafia read.
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gg guys  i ran out of time
gogo town
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I think you'll be a little surprised when you see the obs qt.
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At least I got the mafia bucks  Are we going to get a list of the final standings for that?
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EPT
