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On April 06 2012 06:59 Nova_Terra wrote:
EBWOP: Please post more Lazin, I think your posting isnt bad at all, but you are slipping by somewhat.
Bocki, you too, if you are here. you need to post more, even more than Lazin. too much slipping by going on all around.
I agree, I do need to post more. I'm not sure where to stand right now, but I will think about it and make a post later this evening.
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I thought era meant that imallinson turning up blue implied that somehow I was more "scummy". That interpretation is ludicrous because nothing he could've done as jailkeeper would've indicated that I'm suspicious.
I personally think the mafia just got very lucky to pick imallinson, and there is virtually no other info we can gain as far as I can tell. I propose that we drop it the implications of him dying and move on to more substantial matters.
I'm personally confused and haven't really been able to come up with a good case against anybody. Unless somebody has some amazing read to gain from the mafia hitting imallinson (I doubt it), it doesn't make any sense to me to dwell on these issues, and I think any more discussion of such triviality indicates a lack of desire to move forward, ergo indicates scuminess.
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BlueyD, can you give us your "other suspicions?" I'd like to hear your case if you can articulate your reasons.
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Everybody is making arguments based on posts, so after doing that I thought I'd take a closer look at voting patterns to see if we're missing anything there. Plus, I tend to be better at logic than reading people, so it made the most sense to analyze votes to me.
At first I was a little weary of posting this, since it may tip the mafia off about avoiding suspicious voting patterns. I realized that in order to avoid those suspicious voting patterns, the mafia may end up not ganging up on an innocent in the future, strengthening the town's position anyway, so here goes!
Here is my summary of Day 1 voting:
--Gossemer votes Lyter: This looks like a pressure vote to get things started. When lyter turns up green, it *may* throw some suspicion on Gossemer, but I didn't think it particularly did.
--Nova votes Lyter based on Lyter's lack of posting. No surprise.
--Imallinson votes Lyter "seeing as there isn't a better option at the moment" (bandwagony?)
--Bocki votes Lyter "Good as any" (bandwagony?)
--BlueyD votes Lyter, but encourages him to defend himself
--era votes Lyter (repeats nova's reasoning, bandwagony)
--Therapist votes Lyter
--I hop on the bandwagon for Lyter reluctantly since he still hadn't posted a defense.
--Lyter posts, votes Gossemerr
--imallinson unvotes lyter, votes me, presumably because i want to "out a blue" (and he turns up blue  ) Looking back on it, this could have come of to the mafia as paranoia about somebody outing a blue, and may be why he got killed night 1.
--Within 3 minutes of each other, era and therapist unvote lyter and vote gossemerr.
--A couple minutes later (very close to the deadline now) BlueyD votes Lyter.
Just looking at the order, I found it interesting that era and therapist voted lyter back to back, then switched to gossemerr so quickly. It's likely a coincidence, but an interesting anomaly considering their switch to gossemerr occured within 3 minutes of each other, which could suggest they agreed to something in a PM then voted. This argument is weakened by the fact that they voted close to the deadline (~40 minutes before) when likely lots of people were considering changing their vote and reading the thread.
Final Day 1 votes:
Gossemerr: era / therapist / lyter(Town) / blueyD
Lyter: Gossemer / Nova / Bocki / me
LazinCajun: imallinson(Town)
If you operate under the assumption that day 1 the mafia will vote together (not necessarily a good assumption! If both gossemer and lyter are truly town, the mafia knew this and would've won no matter who gets lynched, and it may have been beneficial for them to split their votes to defuse suspicion).
Looking at the voters who ended up on Lyter:
I know that I'm town, and I strongly suspect that Nova is town. Various people have aired their suspicions of both Gossemer and Bocki which I won't repeat here, and this would seem to connect them.
Looking at the voters who ended up voting Gossemerr:
I argued above that era and therapist seem to be linked as well in swapping to Gossemerr with their strange post timings, but TBH I'm not sure that the mafia would have a strong motivation to switch off of Lyter.
In Summary: Based on voting patterns, I believe that either Gossemer and Bocki may be linked as scum, or that a two out of era / therapist / blueyD are linked as scum. Based on the strange post timings, I think it's more likely that era and therapist would be connected than BlueyD.
The next thing I plan on doing is going through people's posted suspicions carefully -- at first looking only at who they accuse, not with my own interpretations / suspicions -- and seeing if I can use it to augment this argument.
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Holy cow, that was a bigger post than I realized.
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Argh, I meant to bold this in my long post
(snip)
--era votes Lyter (repeats nova's reasoning, bandwagony)
--Therapist votes Lyter
(snip)
--Within 3 minutes of each other, era and therapist unvote lyter and vote gossemerr.
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On April 07 2012 22:38 Bocki wrote:
Lazin:
Good analysis. I like the connection stuff (although of course I dont like my upcoming in it, but at least you held by the facts).
I only have one correction:
--Bocki votes Lyter "Good as any" (bandwagony?)
Thats not completely true. I said "good as any" in combination with my mathematical approach. Seviro had the least posts (1 post I think). Gossemeer had 3 posts when I did my vote, lyter had 4. That was the reason why I said "good as any", as in "4 posts are as good as 3 posts".
I dont blame you for pointing this out, since it came up 2/3 times now. I hope its clear now why I said it.
And about the bandwagony: I proposed the mathematical approach and proposed seviro (that would have been modkilled if he didnt vote at all) or gossemeer. I wanted to hear from the rest if they want to do the mathematical approach or if someone found something. Since the first vote was lyter and he only had 1 post more than my idea, I was fine with it.
My apologies. I think almost everybody's vote was pretty much motivated by bandwagon day 1, so I don't mean anything negative by that -- I was just using it as a shorthand since my post was going to end up so long anyway.
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I also think that you guys are more confident in my conclusions than I am D:
I wouldn't recommend lynching somebody today based only on what I posted. The timing information in particular is sketchy at best.
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On April 07 2012 22:50 Bocki wrote:
After reading it again and going through the filters, I think Lazin is onto something with the BlueyD, era, Therapist connection.
I will go with my gut feeling:
##Vote: BlueyD
Happy Easter Saturday to all of you
Bocki (or anybody else) if you read this before the deadline: Why do you think that the mafia would want to flop to Gossemerr when Lyter, somebody they would've known is town, was already getting lynched? I think that's the weakest part of my post by far, and it's bugging me. The only explanations I can come up with aren't very plausible and come off very WIFOM-y.
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EBWOP: in my analysis, I said that BlueyD voted Lyter at the end of day 1, when he voted gossemerr. Oops.
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On April 08 2012 01:11 era wrote:Show nested quote +On April 08 2012 00:03 BlueyD wrote:
Aye, time to put out a vote.
My case against Gossemerr hasn't gotten any better, and standards are higher on day 2 than on day 1. What I have is insufficient for me to vote for him.
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Bocki's defense against my lastest attack is decent, though no more. What he says (didn't post his case because he thought it was a bit weak, wanted it to be stronger before he did and got rushed into it) is plausible. His vote for me feels a bit like an OMGUS, but it does seem plausible that I would have been his best read already, with the whole Gossemerr thing I seem to be the only one to be getting.
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era's play is maddeningly unchanging. He's tunneling, short-posting and WIFOMing all over the place, even after people have pointed it out. The only question is: Horrible townie, or horrible mafia? It is my opinion that a horrible town would at least learn to be less awful after a few days, and actually help the town in some way. This guy hasn't. The one insight he got (and I have difficulty thinking it was really his), he actually dismissed.
##Vote:era
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I want to congratulate LazinCajun for posting a very convincing connection case. I took a quick look at therapist and era's filters and in my opinion it support the case as well. I'll do a deeper analysis if era turns up scum. Really, you find a connection case that's based on me and therapist posting 3 minutes apart convincing? Lazin himself says that we posted 40 minutes before the deadline which is when everyone would usually be on and voting. Why are you trying to use Lazins "convincing" case to try to get me lynched? I think you are panicking because you are scum.
Oh man. Almost none of his reasoning is based on my post, but rather your posting. You're not defending what he was accusing you of.
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We haven't heard from Gossemerr in a couple pages. I'd like to know where you stand in all of this, could you post something when you get a chance? Only 5 hours until the deadline now.
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On April 08 2012 02:49 Nova_Terra wrote:
Also, i want to note that it is likely that mafia flopped votes between the two bandwagons in early game to not be associated with eachother. if it was say a therapist and era connection, they both accidentally flopped with the same idea.
Is there nothing that WIFOM can't refute in this game?  But I don't disagree, it does weaken my argument.
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Alright, I'm going to throw in my vote now in case I'm not around closer to the deadline. My vote is not set in stone at this point, but I am most suspicious of Era at the moment, so here goes.
##Vote: Era
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On April 08 2012 16:43 Gossemerr wrote:This is all you have to say? You don't even sound upset. Well I'm pissed. I am going to step up my play because I need to. Tomorrow is Easter so I won't be on until late. I have one request that we ALL stop using BS attacks and come up with solid cases based on facts in the posts. And hunt for scum. I mean don't tell us if you think someone is kinda sorta maybe leaning town based off nothing. Find some hard facts that someone is scum and lets use that to our advantage. We need to be clear on concise here, which I feel has gotten away from us.
What do you want me to do, go on a tirade of 4 letter words? Please. With Era's play he was kinda asking for it -- even the night post made it sound like he offed himself, and I can't help but wonder if that was commentary on his play from ghost.
In case anybody isn't aware, if the mafia kills tonight (barring a doctor saving somebody, if we even have one) we'll have 2 mafia and 3 town, so we will be in a lynch-or-lose scenario. The good news is that the mafia will be almost half of the people left, so the odds will be much better that we will lynch get one of them. There's still a good chance we can win, so don't give up.
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EBWOP: The odds are better that we will lynch one of them *IF* the town votes together.
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Additionally, remember that having confirmed townies is almost as useful as mafia at this point, so don't be afraid to post your town reads as well as your scum reads.
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Just to get this post in before the night in case I die (I have NOT taken a ton of time to think about this)
Current scum reads: Bocki / gossemerr:
Town: Me, probably Nova. I'm less sure about BlueyD. I do want to review nova's filter in more detail to make reconfirm that he's town, but I've been getting town vibes all game.
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Please post your reads before night (30 mins) if you can!
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EPT
