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On April 01 2012 02:45 Nisani201 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 31 2012 15:44 Jayjay54 wrote:
WASTE THE SHOT
don't shoot the two scummiest persons. That's nothing more than a backdoor for an intentional misuse. I mean, I am thinking that there are 2 scums out there. One Cell.
Assuming those numbers, you have a chance of excatly 2,5 % of hitting both of the scum.
On the other hand, you have a 46,666% of "accidently shooting two twonies. And loosing us the entire game.
You have a 51% or so chance of know that they don't share an alignment. Now what? Yay. No worth.
Foolishness, use the shot on Kenpachi and Dirk. If you end up shooting two townies, you are scum. Because I showed you the numbers. This item is anti town. The risk & reward is non-existent. DOOOOON'T USE it.
@mav: third is never town, third means third party which is not town...that's what my comment says. This is bullshit and you know it. Probability doesn't work the same way in Mafia. I didn't tell him to randomly shoot two people; I told him to shoot the two scummiest targets. It's very likely that at least one of his best scumreads is actually scum, and that's all we need for the weapon to at least not be entirely wasted. The point is that if he does end up killing two townies, he's going to have to target at least one person that's is 80% town. And if he does that, we lynch him, easy. We get much more information if he actually uses it.
The problem with this is that we gain little to nothing from it and if he fails, then we probably loose. So what happens now, if he doesn't kill the people? Does that prove them scum? No. Does that prove one town, if the other flips scum? No.
We gain noooothing and risk a lot.
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wow, a buttload of information.
I guess the current state is 4-2-1 which probably is mylo. If things aren't going great we're at 3-3-1 or 3-2-1-1 which would mean Lylo.
[br]
I don't understand Foolishness choice of targets whatsoever. If you look for in his filter there's no indication of this whatsoever. I was very uncomfortable reading this. If they should share an alignment (due to busdriving or alignment switch after dead, that's possible), it is very well possible that this was just said for the single purpose to "confirm" nisani and just secretly use it on somebody else. This especially comes to mind looking at the way Nisani suggested a use for the wrong reasons. If I scim through the thread only two people didn't agree with me. Nisani and Foolishness. Odd.
The other possibility is that foolishness was so freaking sure about dirk for some reason that he knew his chances to hit double town was weak. Still, I see no gain whatsoever informationwise and find this decision questionable.
K is town. I thought so for a while now. But with confirmation: ##Vote: GLaDOS
With dirk being dead we can
a) lynch into the non-leading (no offense) guys like mav, phagga or mementoss. If so, I def go with Mav first looking at the postings...
b) lynch into Nisani or Foolishness. Probably starting with Foolishness...
ooor to fill it up: me (but why...)
this will be the toughest choice yet town. I am completely unsure what to do...
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also (I think) GLaDOS needs to be voted in the separate thread...
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Before I go to sleep, I might want to add that dirk pushed Nisani in some posts in the QT. I'll copy them in here for reference (will be confirmed by mementoss if needed):
Dirk Hardpec
03-29-2012
10:24 AM ET (US)
i have such a huge problem with what's going on right now.
I think nisani201 is scum, look again at his vote back on day 2.
Now read foolishness's posts. There really isn't much to tell me foolishness is town, and doesn't it sound like a huge risk to anyone else but me to go with the limerick speaking foolishness over a lot of more townie looking people like jay.
Read both their filters. I think we need to hang nisani, rather than blubb.. or me.
Dirk Hardpec
03-23-2012
06:51 AM ET (US)
Nisani's switch to bluelightz was basically him claiming scum
dunno if that means that we should trust nisani, but it is certainly possible...
looking at this, maybe foolishness said the truth ( he should add a limerick why a things nisa is scum though), I am in favor of lynching mav. Mem is in the QT which at this stage of the game is prolly vote fishing from dirk...and phagga posted some reasonable stuff...
but, again, this will be tough.
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btw these are 2 of 4 posts of him in the last week...
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On April 01 2012 09:01 Nisani201 wrote:
Everything scum says and does is WIFOM. The fact that it's Palmar adds even more factors because he calls me scum every game.
I defended you, you realize that?
The difference is that he used his few posts to push you. Looking at how small the scum team might be, I don't think bussing you without reason or anything (march 23th) is a possibility, which sheds non-scum light on you.
You may still be cell if that calms you in any way :D
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Yay for loosing a team member to an alternative wincon. I hope he at least had the courtesy of giving the item to someone townie. Probably not, because he's kenpachi.
Current state is probably:
3-2-1 or 2-2-1-1. I think 3-2-1 is likely. Although, I am running out of suspects tbh, it may be 4-1-1 or 4-2 even, which depents who died night one. We're dealing with up to 3anti town player right now. 2 if we're lucky, 1 if we're reallllly lucky.
Also note that we had a busdriver involved which might explain the prevented medic action of mementoss.
If it's not 4-1-1 (or better), we're at lylo. Especially the cell member might be hard to find.
Some initial thoughts on the players BEFORE I skim through the thread.
Nisani: Not scum imo. His role would be fitting into a cell as well, however. His wrong scatter shot bothers me.
Foolishness: I never really thought of Foolishness as town this game. His few poems with actual content were not really well-reasoned. Now I know dirk was scum. Which makes me think foolishness is not scum since bussing that early doesn't make sense to me considering this is a multi fraction game. Dunno about the scatter shot use tbh. Also don't know about his post restriction being fake or how I should think about it flavour wise...
Mementoss: Role != alignment, we know that. His role claim is highly believable. And a town tell, looking that the role requires coroperation. Based on what I remember, I am leaning town.
Phagga: Made some good posts, leaning town. Not sure though.
Mav: His role claim seems to match Grey's flavour of VT, however he acts seriously about it. Still my number one candidate.
Final comments: It may be tempting to just take the easy lynch, but I am afraid that this won't be enough to seal the deal... On the other hand, I think we should look for scum and not cell to begin with. We are not even sure if cells or thirds are alive. So, I tend to think the lynch should hit Phagga or Mav. Will now look through the filters and highlight stuff which stuck out.
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ok after going through the filter my first choices crumbled a little. Here's what I think now:
Foolishness: 93% not scum, actually good chance of being cell, because he softdefended both wiggles and david (as I pointed out earlier and phagga rightfully mentions again!). I want to focus on hunting scum and not cell today, because they have a better chance of outnumbering town considering that cell has only one left.
Mav: While I mentioned before that I want to lynch him, I am not so sure anymore. Doesn't really try to derail the thread and his posting seems genuine. Medium speed on the lightz vote. He's also a newer player.
Phagga: He comes to many right conclusions and isn't afraid to post whatsoever. One of the quickest to jump on the lightz train. As of now, he is actually my strongest townread. Question to you: Are you a newer player or a Vet?
Nisani: Why on earth is he still alive? I mean he's PR and wasn't killed again, instead two random decent townies were killed. I can understand why I am not targeted, but him? Why? Pretty much last on the lightz lynch. then again his alternative was dirk (scum too) and dirk wanted his death. Fails to invent and hassyby might have been planned, then again, gives me the strings and nails the colour radiator which got us far. I am 100% unsure what to think of him.
Mementoss: Messed up medic actions including protecting scum, votes Kenpachi (town) until very late on the lightz lynch. His medic action on grack on grack might have been thwarted by busdriving. Was invited to the QT when dirk thought he'd die soon which might be a tell, too. Also this post stuck out:
On March 30 2012 08:53 Mementoss wrote:
Alright im going to let ya know what I think about the 1/1/1
Kenpachi:
Doesn't post often. When he does post it is usually 1 liners. A good portion of those posts are trying to get the town to vote Glados, at this point I don't even know if it's part of his role, or if he's trying to derail the town. Or just plain trolling. Nothing much else to say here, other than if he is town, he is certainly not helpful.
Shitty town, or sleeper cell
BlubbDavid:
Out of the 4 people kita checked. Blubb stated wiggles was clearly the most town, when his play never reflected this. Then he flips cell leader. Then afterwards before Kita died, wanted to use the scatter gun against him, even though it seemed clear he most likely was town aligned, after killing the Mafia GF and also was not lying about the colour radiator. Seems scummy to me, the reasoning didn't make sense and he didn't explain it. His whole filter seems to be him jumping back and forth on people who we should kill. Note there is never a clear target. This seems scummy to me.
Scum or cell (trying to defend sleeper cell leader)
DirkHardpec
Lurks harder than even kenpachi. Pushing for a Nisani lynch. Is currently on fire. Has access to the telepathic QT, which doens't seem like scum ability or flavour per say. Him being on fire could mean he could die tonight. But we cannot know for sure. So if we are not lynching him for this reason alone I think that is a mistake. Is a bit active in the tele QT, but not much. Seems uninterested.
Cell or bad town
Out of those three I think the blubbdavid lynch is the safest as I think he is either cell or scum for sure. I would think dirk is most likely cell, and kenpachi is most likely just playing a bad town game.
However I would like to mention one more case, as we don't have to lynch these people at all. Because foolishness has the scatter shot, I think this would be a perfect spot for him to shoot, as it doesn't work unless he gets 2 oppositely aligned players. Which is guarenteed shooting into this three pack.
Nisani
Ghost earlier brought up an issue, him giving the colour radiator to hassy, coulda been working with scum, letting paperscraps shoot him and aquiring the colour radiator, thus wasting it. Luckily kita go the kill and used the colour radiator accurately. Now he has invented something the town reccomended but in the wrong way. It will either be a good item, or useless. Its a low risk, item, but has a low chance of being good for the town. (if it duds out) Also had a lot of scum vibes coming from him before he even claimed inventor. I also think town is in a good spot right now it seems, and the only thing that can bring it back for scum, is a poorly designed invention in the wrong hands.
Leaning scum inventor to me, that just got caught in the act when kita acquired the colour radiator meant for paperscraps.
I would like a Nisani lynch, and allow foolishness to use his item with no chance of it not working on the 1/1/1.
##Vote: Nisani
Also I have travelling to do tommorrow, so I wont be around all day. Will try to drop in and will switch my vote if its needed for a majority.
It is like saying: yeah they are all looking bad, but I still want to kill Nisani.
So this is where we're at:
People I'd rather not lynch (because they are not scum): JJ, Phagga, Foolishness
People I have no clue whatsoever: Nisani
People I'd vote (scum is among them): Mav and Mementoss
I'll vote Mementoss for now and thereby retreat my statement that he posts townish. Mav is still not looking good, but I'd prefer Mementoss.
Open for discussion though...Hope somebody posts here at some point, until then:
##Vote: Mementoss
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On April 02 2012 00:43 Maverick32x wrote:
I'm in class till 4est...
But mementoss... I gave you the factual core... What does it do?
I disagree with the mementoss Lynch... I think we should focus on either nisani or phagga... I'll have a chance to flip through filters when I get home.. but I feel like the Lynch on mementoss is making a decision based off a lot of stretches of logic... That post you made JJ with the quote from mementoss highlights a lot of scum.. sure he wants the vote on nisani
.. but he seems to be on board with his reads...
Also super disappointed with kenpachi... Confirmed town sacs himself....;;
I point this post out among other things. It's not the post alone.
Meanwhile you cease to use any logic whatsoever. You want to focus on Phagga or Nisani??
On April 01 2012 11:56 Maverick32x wrote:
Nisani- Targeted by Dirk, who is confirmed scum, HOWEVER, that most recent exchange where he felt the need to defend himself awfully quickly could be an indicator of some sort of guilt... maybe sleeper cell?
This post is your recent one on Nisani. You state he is "maybe sleeper cell?", this estimation makes a lynch unjustified. We have to find scum and not cell or we loose.
And Phagga? Is there even a case on him? He votes bluelightz even before I did. There was no need at that point.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=319120¤tpage=68#1348 this post at this time is fairly decent.
I don't think he is scum,although I can't be 100% sure.
You're reasoning on mementoss being town is completely flawed:
On April 01 2012 11:56 Maverick32x wrote:
Mementoss- probably town since he is the computer terminal person.. that seems like a difficult role to make up- and his actions correlate well with what the results that we have seen.
Even if he tells the truth here, how does this say anything about his alignment? He protects scum actively blocking a town vig without knowing anything other's didn't. As far as I can see the role could very well be scum and the flavour fits as well. If you say phagga did nothing pro town, what did Mementoss do?
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also, way to go town that 1 (me) out of 6 has voted, that will make things for scum difficult...NOT
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On April 02 2012 05:01 phagga wrote:
Jayjay, if there is a constellation like 3-2-1, then we need to get rid of the sleeper cell first to avoid having 2 townies killed at night. If there is a constellation like 4-1-1, then it doesn't matter if we go for mafia or sleeper cell first, as long as we get the lynch right.
wrong. a sleeper lynch with 3-2-1 will get us to 3-2. After the nightkill it will be 2-2 and game.
On April 02 2012 05:54 Nisani201 wrote:
I highly doubt Mementoss is scum simply because he has the computer terminal and I don't think that that kind of pro-town role would be given to cell. I also doubt that Foolishness is scum.
How is the computer terminal pro town? It can be used for everything and can encourage item hunting for scum. In fact, you saw it being used against town already.
In a game where we had a pro town bus driver, an anti-town mason and where we discuss an inventor being anti town, we can't conclude him as a safe town looking solely at the role.
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So foolishness lynch is off the table IMO, simply because he isn't scum. Cell lynch might loose us the game.
No lynch is a bad option as well. So we should conclude on mementoss or mav. phagga looks way better than they do...
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if mav flips town, there, most likely, is no tomorrow. If we assume 3-2-1, it'll be 2-2-1 not counting night kills.
4-1-1 would give us some space though.
I am with you here Nisani. Mav or Mem needs to die, I'll be on until deadline to see what is possible.
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since no one does seem to give a fuck, I'll change the vote to mav. The remaining three players can make his lynch happen. Still better than a no lynch. 4-1-1 will tolerate a mislynch and in a 3-2-1 we're probably toast either way.
Vote. Maverick32x
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On April 02 2012 07:16 Maverick32x wrote:
Ok, I'm not entirely sure if trying to defend myself is of much use. I get the strong feeling that JJ already has his heart set on me, so I get that this is an uphill battle.. however, I'm encouraging everyone left to think for themselves and not to simply bandwagon your way to a lose... I am not third party, and I am not scum....
That being said.. I have an actual question- how do we know any scum is left? Couldn't there just be 1 sleeper cell remaining?
This vote is difficult because of the potential for Sleeper Cell to be motivated to kill scum as much as allow town to kill themselves.... to be honest, and I know this is the you blame me, I blame you sort of thing.. but flipping through filters, almost everyone that is left has some sort of 'unique' job... the only person who hasn't discussed this yet is JJ and Phagga...
And I know, before the pitchforks start coming at me... doesn't anyone think that is a bit suspicious?
I'm a cop, Nisani is an inventor, Mementoss is a computer (GI joe reference), Foolishness talks in rhymes....
For a game with relatively intricate style.. those players have not brought up their roles at all... Obviously if they are medic or DT that makes sense and I understand.. however- I think it is still something to consider...
I'm going to stick to a Phagga vote... I know he is one of the few people who didn't go after me in this thread, so I'm sure I'm slitting my own throat- but I'm going to go for it.
You read the threat at all? Phagga has been discussed quite a bit.
Also, no, I have not decided. In fact, I'd much rather lynch mementoss, as I stated many times now.
The problem is that Foolishness is no scum, Nisani is the inventor and most likely not scum and I have lynched both scum and cell. Which boils down to you three guys (phagga, mav, mem). For some reason people think mem is town for his role. Phagga made some good posts. This is why you are in the zone now.
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Why the heck would, as town, vote a fourth freaking player? Do you really think that lynch is going to happen??? If anything you should vote mementoss...
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On April 02 2012 07:27 phagga wrote:
Uh, JJ, the Deadline is in 24 hours...
also: I don't want to calculate too much, but: If we are at 3-2-1, and we kill mafia, that makes 3-1-1. Then there are 2 nightkills, which leave us at 1-1-1, which is nigh unwinnable. However, if we go from 3-2-1 to 3-2-0 and then 2-2-, we can win with an item of Nisani. HOWEVER, that assumes that there is still a cell member left to kill. This is why I stick to Foolishness.
Maverick: You're right, it is possible that there is only one sleeper cell or one mafia left, as we do no know the flips of night one nor the size of the mafia group. What JJ and I are picturing here are the worst case scenarios.
So you want to know my role?
oh is it? that actually explains a lot :D Sorry for strssing out.
I'll be voting mementoss again then:
##Vote: Mementoss
The difference is that with 3-1-1 there's a fair chance that scum hits cell and vice versa. especially since they avoid me because of my item. we also don't know for sure, if cell has a KP, do we? I don't think so looking at last night, because there wasn't one. The bullet was a vig item bought on the black market ...We def should try to hit scum and not cell.
Mav: I also basically claimed my role: I was a vig...and my shot was confirmed...
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On April 02 2012 07:38 phagga wrote:Show nested quote +On April 02 2012 07:34 Jayjay54 wrote:
we also don't know for sure, if cell has a KP, do we? I don't think so looking at last night, because there wasn't one. The bullet was a vig item bought on the black market
Uh, how do you know this? did I miss that somewhere in the thread?
On March 27 2012 13:06 MidnightGladius wrote:
In the Black Market thread, the player who bought the Companion Cube (smurf account that we all agreed to ignore) just bought a Sentry Gun (1kp) and is leading the auction for the Delicious Cake (forces a player to not post for 24 hours).
Additionally, this player has some number of Letters (one-shot PMs), and no one else has bought any of them, so if any of you have been receiving such forms of communications, it should be this player.
I also will note that the Radiator returned 1 Mafia. This likely means that there exists a mafia doctor/roleblocker/other strong PR, and the team decided it would be better to keep using that action. A mafia doctor would actually fit with what we've seen so far, as that would have accounted for Maverick's kp without refunding it, allowing kita to claim the actual kill.
On March 28 2012 08:12 MidnightGladius wrote:
"YellOw" just bought another Sentry Gun (for a total of 2kp currently in his possession), and he won the auction for the Delicious Cake (forces a player to not post for 24 hours).
at least it makes perfect sense that this is not cell flavour, but this item...
So far there is no flavour unaccounted other than both apererture kills last night. Which is why I assume no actual cell KP.
They might have the second gun though...would kinda make sense that scum has KP and cell black market. we are not sure though
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On April 02 2012 07:54 Nisani201 wrote:
Can someone explain these counts better to me? Aren't there third-party people also?
There might be. But it doesn't help.
I assumed that the great beings of power are alignment bound. It doesn't help to think about thirds...
3-1-1-1 or 2-2-1-1 (even 3-1-2 or 2-2-2) are possible options as well, but they shouldn't bother us...and I strongly believe that it's 3-2-1 or 4-1-1 right now...
off to sleep. good night guys <3
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On April 02 2012 21:40 phagga wrote:JayJay54: He defends me, so he must be town. End of analysis.
 Seriously, I saw JayJay54 as town pretty early in the game (I gave him my Lemon D1/N1 which I received upon the start of the game). I did grow a bit cautious with him over time, and so here is a short analysis on his way too long filter (seriously, 14 pages? That's roughly 8.2% of all posts!) His stances on some other people, and mind you, these are not all he commented on: - Sinani: Already pointed him out D1, shot him N1, Derped the kill. Was completely transparent about it. - Bluelightz: suspected him early (towards end of D1), calls him out again D2, calls him a reasonable Target D2. - Blubbdavid: suppected him early (towards end of D1), mentiones him a second time 50 min later. Some banter between the two. He is unsure D2. After the colour radiator, he is his second target. - Kenpachi: says he is useless regardless of alignement on D1. wants to lynch him last of the colour radiator group. - Nisani: says he underperforms on D2, calls him a reasonable Target D2. Attacks him hard D3 and votes him, too. When he voted him, Nisani led the vote with 3 votes. - Mr. Wiggles: Disagrees with the case from Kita, says he could me more active though. Calls him scary (N3 I think?), lynches him D4 as the first of the colour radiator group. - Adam: accuses him of not being active enough as in other games, calls him a reasonable Target D2. - ghost_403: says his posts are fluff D2. - Paperscraps: Soft defends him when Kita attacks him. - Dirk: Defended Dirk D1 because he thought he brought up a good point. Changes his view on him N1 after Dirk attacks Grack for no reason, but still does not want to lynch him D2, because he got masoned by him. Softdefends him several times D2 & D3 because of his ability. Accuses him somewhere around N3 of being third, clearly states that he doubts Dirk is cell or mafia. He repeats this on D4. After the colour radiator has been used he refuses to lynch Dirk on D4 (he decides lynch D4) because he wants to kill cell and he thinks that Dirk is scum. On D5 he suddenly changes his mind and says that Dirk is probably cell, not scum. He then proposes blubbdavid as lynch target who he thinks "has the higher chance to belong to the actual scum team and is the better choice." What really stands out is his that he defended Dirk very long and Paperscraps a bit as well. However, He voted Bluelightz when he was at 5 votes and therefore far from being a safe lynch. He trusted Hassy very fast. He had some back and forth with kita, but nothing wild really. Unlike others, he stated his reads on a lot of people. His argumentation looks rather pro-town, and the activity is through the roof which is very unusual for scum. His reads, however, were quite off most of the time. The whole "Dirk" story makes me cautios, I don't like how he treated that. Nevertheless, I don't think he is scum, and there is for sure at least one better target than him. Therefore, I do not want to lynch him today. Jayjay, what really interests me: You already half-claimed your role, may we know what your role name is?
ok, I feel the need to comment on this, even though I actually don't need to.
I actually am content with my reads so far.
Sinani was a misread a lot of townies shared.
The small pressure on adam made him show his a game later on and I think calling somebody out for that helps town, same with ghost (who I didn't push). I never mention adam after he picks up his game.
You also make the mistake of saying that not scum = town. In like the only post on paperscraps which you said was softdefending paper, I actually point that out. I did not defend him whatsoever
I state a billion times that dirk is not scum, but may be cell, because of the ability and the flavour of it. And I still think it was odd. I wanted to have a good chance of hitting anti town and I ruled out that he was scum which was a false assumption and I said that he didn't use the QT cell wise (which was actually true). If you tell the story, tell it right.
Overall, I was right on blue and the list order later on...which is at least decent (it's my second game as town...). So I am glad with my play, don't tell me I am bad 
On April 02 2012 23:59 Mementoss wrote:
What? This was before Kita's role was revealed. As far as I knew at the time I protected Dirk from a regular vig shot.
I feel right now that I am getting targeted for being bad town, rather than being scummy. The votes are all easily floating to me, as the remaining scum (most likely a mafia and a sleeper) would rather not use a night KP on me, when they can just bandwagon me out on the lynch. Most people aren't even explaining how I am more suspicious than anyone else that should be on the radar. There just like Mementoss? Seems like a decent lynch tonight.
Probably looking to get rid of me now than ever, since the last 2 nights Nisanis haven't worked/couldn't be used, I am now more favourable to the town. Also I have just come into possession with new cores (equipped last night as action), Factual and Intelligence. Which just by name seem a lot more powerful than the medic/track I had before (haven't used very successfully). So if I die, I will most likely be the towns last blue, and it will be 3-1-1. If sleeper has KP left this game could be over after the night cycle.
Reminds me of the post david did before he died. It involves fearmongering (hey we loose, if we lynch me) instead of finding other scum . And reeks of the feeling of being caught.
Also, he indicates that he doesn't know what the core does and then posts one post later states he is a DT...seems odd and desperate.
I think he is our guy... Nisani or Mav....Switch!
I won't be around for lynch, since I started a new job today and need some rest...can't afford to stay awake until 1am and getting up at 6.
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EPT
