EPTI will have a probable schedule conflict with this game. I will be out of town and out of touch for the weekend of March 2-4.
@GMarshal - Put me back in coach! It wouldn't be game ruining at all :D
Newbie Mini Mafia IV
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
I will have a probable schedule conflict with this game. I will be out of town and out of touch for the weekend of March 2-4. @GMarshal - Put me back in coach! It wouldn't be game ruining at all :D | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
| ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
I'm feeling pretty good about this game. Dreamflower/Qatol are quick to quell bad manner. I think you have gotten some of the kinks out of your posting style gumshoe. I now know what Alderan is capable of. Good mix of the new and semi-new. Hope this fills up fast. | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
| ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
On February 25 2012 11:56 EchelonTee wrote: I'd watch out for that, eh DYH? I'd be down to /in as a replacement, but I have had 4 games played, so I'll just be watching  Oh ET. I just loved how my case was thrown out because I was focusing to much on slOosh's meta. Only to have you come back at me with a meta argument. (Oh, and btw, the heart of my case was STILL the fact that slOosh had provided no reads up until my case, not meta) The hypocrisy of my lynch was stunning from both of you. But perhaps if we are going to continue to discuss last game we should move it back to that thread. | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
| ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
Something I want us to consider this game is creating an early fake deadline for voting. After getting into the obsQT last game I made note of a comment that greymist made, "I have never seen a last minute vote change hit scum, ever." (which was later corrected to include 1 exception). I think creating a fake deadline 8-12 hours before the actual deadline would help insulate us from last minute vote switches, and would also give us another point in time to gather meaningful analysis when people are having to take hard stances,. | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
Do we get to know how many scum are in the game? | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
On February 26 2012 12:38 Janaan wrote: Day 1 post says 4 scum But it also says one of them is Qatol, so is it 3? | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
| ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
I agree with gum on the no lynching, however: On February 26 2012 12:39 gumshoe wrote: 1: Please wait a little while into the game before making accusations, mafia love conflict, they thrive in it, there is no plus side to you getting into a fight with a fellow townie, so wait a few hours till your sure someones scum before you post a case on them, and if someone does something scummy early on, make a note of it, don't just blurt it out, scum slips are much more useful as part of a bigger picture, and if scum are comftarble they are more likely to make more mistakes. Do not use this as your guide. There are plenty of guides linked in the OP which will give you a more nuanced view of how to play and what to look for. That being said, gumshoe isn't wrong, but he isn't presenting all the options. When you post you need to have a purpose for that post in mind. There can be many motivations behind posting a case against someone, or even just pointing out a 'scum slip'. Try to post to cause the greatest effect. If you follow gumshoe's suggestion here and hold back what you see until you can compose a strong case, that is fine. If you decide to use what you have in order to pressure a person, that's great too. Don't pick a fight with a person because you think they are scummy. Objectively apply pressure, create cases, and persuade others to your point of view. Conflict is a useful tool, and putting someone under the gun can give you as much evidence against them as letting them relax and mess up on their own. Conflict is not where mafia thrive. Pointless conflict is where mafia thrive. The point is, have a purpose to your posts and use your head. | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
On February 26 2012 13:47 Janaan wrote: The thing about pressuring is it can get the person talking, and you can use what they say to determine more about them. Some scum might even break under the pressure. If you wait until you have a full case, all that it could potentially take is one long decent defense post, and you'll never hear from him again. Or, maybe they never post enough to make a decent case. Then you're stuck. In other words, "I agree with DYH". There are plenty of guides and coaches, let's stop giving advice. In regards to lynching lurkers. I never know how I feel about it until the day develops more. I definitely am open to it, but I have no set opinion until I have an alternative to weigh it against. Lynching lurkers is only viable to me if there is a lack of strong cases or consensus available. | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
| ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
FourFace I don't like that his first post places unwarranted suspicion on the hydras. He could argue that he was just putting pressure on them, but this post On February 26 2012 20:58 FourFace wrote: Either way i + Show Spoiler + http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=315559#2 ... to apply some pressure. But it's rather harmless shows he doesn't quite understand how to put pressure on someone properly yet. I also don't like his lack of opinion on the soft deadline (thanks for the phrase slOosh). He says he is waiting for a thorough pro/con discussion. But a few of us had already provided pros, so in order to be ambivalent to the idea he must have had some cons in mind, but chooses not to post them. On February 26 2012 18:13 FourFace wrote: 1. I'm a total scrub at this game btw, playing my debut game with you hansom TL-ers. I like the theme, reminds me of Dexter's Lab when the bacteria took over his family and he had to get into the dodgeball suit and kick their asses. 2. I support the idea of lynching lurkers over lynching suspicious individuals although if someone starts spamming protocol and tips about how you should play, with the excuse of this being a newbie game, it kinda bothers me and I might vote against such a person. I recommend keeping things concise (with the exception of day 1, because we have to get to know each other, so posting stuff about voyager and whatnot is welcome since it's an indication of ones personality and a hint to what you can expect to hear from that person in the future.. even though gumshoe makes the impression of being a couple arrows short of a quiver I think he sets the right tone to be followed but for this first day only) Generally I'd like people to post pros and cons when they want to implement a policy, for others to get an idea about weather the motives behind it are benevolent, malicious or incompetent in nature. 3. No no lynch policy pro/con (that i can think of): We got 10 for town and 4 scum, starting probabilities for lynching are 10 to 4 for an innocent townie and 4 to 10 for scum. After each day 1 townie gets shot by mafia so if another townie gets lynched it's 8 to 4 chances to lynch a townie after second day's vote and 4 to 8 chances of lynching scum and so forth. If someone could make a tree diagram real quickly listing probabilities for lynching either town or scum up until day 6 or so and multiply the probabilities that would be appreciated (without doctor or vigilante interference first to get a general idea). Worst case scenario is lynching town every time for 2 consecutive days which means game over after day[3]. Best case would be lynching scum every time in which case town wins at the dawn of the fifth day with 6 town alive and 0 scum. So is it advisable to lynch the first day without any concrete evidence, i have no idea. Some math boy-genius figure it out, but all in all (considering detective, medics and player behavior) my gut tells me that the success-rate of a lynch is a curve which drops the first couple of days and reaches it's max at the LYLO point. We can either plan our build for that lategame where success-rate is high or we can gamble and lynch right away. Either way we need to know the math to get an idea of the setup and we don't have much time to figure out what is more important.. gathering information or action. If we don't lynch then tomorrow will likely be 9 town to 4 at which point the worst scenario would be game over after day[4] with 5 town to 4 scum at the LYLO point on day[3], which sounds way better for me (gaining a day), but again this is without vigilante/medic/strategy which I think would inflate towns chances even more. 1. Lowering our expectations of him. Not a big deal, it is a newbie game. 2. Wants to lynch lurkers over suspicious people... unless they are posting advice and protocol. That is what would make a person suspicious enough to FourFace that they need to be voted over a lurker. Seems a bit off to me. At best this statement is wishy-washy and means nothing. At worse it reveals FourFace to have a skewed point of view. 3. This whole section says 1 thing of value. In a worst case scenario, a no-lynch on day1 gives us 1 more day of play before game over. The rest is pointing out the obvious, needless speculation, and trying to get others to jump on board with discussion about the setup. I think that the majority of this first post, while big, says almost nothing. Very suspicious. (I'm taking the spoilers out of this next one) On February 26 2012 20:58 FourFace wrote: Pro no lynch on first day: If we get to Day[2] with 2 townies missing .. how much info do you get from that? We need successful lynches for info to spring, Janaan. We are scientists, remember? We need a statistic edge and we'll build on it with what info comes along. Vote for who you think benefits the town the least but refrain from lynching on the first day. You can gather info from who gets shot and whether you get saved or not. Plus on Day[2] the DT made check, or possibly even gets roleblocked, or saved, or shot by friendly fire. And also if we lynch today we have no DT support because he hasn't made his check yet. I wouldn't know what to make out of the lynch info even if against all odds it turns out to be scum, as it could be one of their plans to sacrifice one of them by bandwagoning on his lynch and playing the "i would have tried to stop the lynch if i was scum" card all game long. Sort of like a 5 pool, sacrifice drones for early aggression. Con no lynch on first day: One of the methods mafia use to win is stall so we need decimate their numbers quickly, 40 percent chance is acceptable, and we get to sack those who aren't active enough for town to collaborate successfully. I doubt that someone who posts conclusively will be a candidate so it's either lurker or BS spammer, either way no big asset to town so why not start right away. Either way i http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=315559#2 ... to apply some pressure. But it's rather harmless Pro - Not vote for who you think is scum, vote for who you think benefits the town the least. Pro - FF seems to want to rely on blues to provide us with information. And speculation on who gets shot by scum tends to be WIFOM and useless. FF downplays the value of information gained by a lynch, up-plays the value of information gotten by a mafia hit. And goes back to blues for actually figuring the game out. This is a very wrong way of looking at the game. Con - First off, it isn't a 40% chance, it is closer to a 29% chance. 4/14, not 4/10. Secondly, FF has wandered into random lynch territory instead of staying on pro/con for nolynch. I don't like it one bit. Con - Just like in his pro-nolynch argument he is espousing voting for those who are least valuable to town, not scum. I italicized the statement in this section that I just hate and think betrays FF's attitude. On February 27 2012 05:32 FourFace wrote: I knew this was going to be fun. Had a LOL moment already; gumshoe says "Glad to have you on our side Alderaan ( : as for absolutes do you mind making decisions like that on a day to day basis?" and Alderan is like: "What do you mean?" Seriously wtf did you mean bro? Anyway I am disapoint about Steveling not reading this thread from start to finish. If he would have realized what a hydra is (i didn't know either until i did read .. THE WHOLE .. thread from START 2 FINISH and my eyes are still functioning properly) (DO THIS NOW if you haven't already GOOGG we'll be waiting THANK YOU!) Also certain circumstances made it so that I already have an idea of a case bait set up. The trap is up and running as we speak. At this point I can only say that there's an elephant in the room and whether people see it or not, mention it or not will give a mass check on all @Janaan why JekyllAndHyde and not some other lurker? I don't know, lynch me I asked you all to have a purpose in mind when you posted things. So what is the purpose of this post? From what I can see the purpose of this post is to foment conflict between gumshoe and Alderan, to undercut/place suspicion on Steveling, and to hint at a secret strategy. Also, wtf is with this statement, "I don't know, lynch me". As to that secret strategy, I sure hope an integral part of it is letting us know that a trap is out there. Because if it isn't then all you have done is made people more afraid to post for fear of stepping into your trap. So if your trap doesn't depend on letting us know that it exists, you are acting very scummy. ##FOS: FourFace | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
| ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
| ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
| ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
| ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
You are absolutely right. There is a reason my case ended with a FOS instead of a vote. I had 3 things in mind when I made my case. 1. FF's early posting was either bad townie or scummy. I wanted to draw FF out and get a response from him in hopes of figuring out if he leans town or scum. My case wasn't conclusive on him as scum, but it was strong enough to warrant a response. 2. I wanted to move past the point of talking about policy and start getting into the real discussion. The best way of doing this is to give the town a solid piece of analysis to start playing with. 3. I wanted to gauge the responses of others to my case. (You kind of blew this for me when you posted, but that's ok.) After his response I am leaning town for FF. Why? Because of the timestamps. FF posted his fairly long response to me 66 minutes after I posted my case against him. If you look at his pre-game posts, FF was brand new and fairly oblivious to previous games (mentioning that he did not know the abbreviations and such). That tells me that it is VERY unlikely that he is playing off gumshoe's meta from last game for 2 reasons. I find it hard to believe that FF could have read my case, gone to a scumQT, asked for help, received it in the form of "play off gumshoe's meta", written up his post, and have it checked by that scumQT, and posted it in 66 minutes. It's possible, but super unlikely. That leaves me with the option that he read SNMM7 after this game started and decided on his own to play off gumshoe's meta, also super unlikely. So, to me, the craziness of his response is geniune. Which makes me lean town for him. For now. | ||
|
DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
| ||
| ||
