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On February 19 2012 04:50 Mattchew wrote:
Hey guys... I have read a little but am about to go to Atlantic City for the night. I read through the top 3's filters (ET Dimmukok and Midnight) and I think that Midnight should be the lynch today.
##vote: MidnightGladius
Way to make me hate my case, man 
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Scummy lurker's replacement shows up and votes without reasoning? ET's vote makes sense because his points against DimmuKlok mirrored mine against MidnightGladius. Mattchew's vote, however, is plain bad.
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Trying to drag myself out of my state of despair.
Sloosh and DoYouHas: I think you're expecting too much from each other. When obsing Student Mafia, I had about seven strong town reads at the end of day 1. When obsing NMM3, I had zero. Fundamentally, I don't think you do a great job of looking townie in the early game, and you're both finally picking up on that. I also don't think either of you are a good lynch today.
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On February 19 2012 07:59 slOosh wrote:
MidnightGladius played totally weird day 1 when he was vig. I can understand the conclusions he came to, and maybe his difference in play is attributable to him not being a vig this time around.
His conclusions certainly make sense, but they're extremely safe and add nothing that everyone else wasn't aware of. MannerKiss trollposted and then lurked. Gumshoe made daft plots, spammed and posted crap statistics.
The safeness of the conclusions clashes badly with the speed of the voting. He knows that voting early looks townie, but he makes votes that no-one can really dispute, even if the players in question eventually flipped green.
His (weak) case against ET has been backed up in force by a number of similarly terrible cases from posters who did next to nothing before. Looks like the scum team coming out of the woodwork to back up their most experienced player.
{QUOTE]
@Jaj, I don't think I am expecting too much. Nowhere in Day 1 of NMMIII does he consider a no lynch nor does he treat his vote with such nonchalance.[/QUOTE]
Yeah, I'm disappointed about that. On the other hand I'm not sure what I'd do if I was leaving three hours before the lynch and I didn't want to lynch any of the main candidates. It's possible that he really thinks you're a much better lynch than ET, DimmuKlok or Midnight, though I have no idea why in the case of the last two.
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I don't want to lynch DYH, as I think his posting was fine up to the lynch business. It's possible he felt it was the best of two bad options.
DimmuKlok is plausible scum due to lack of contribution but also plausible scared-town. I'm considering him as a compromise vote.
TKHawkins and Sloosh should still be around.
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Switching to DimmuKlok. That makes six, and seven if ET switches. Need one more to lynch.
##Unvote
##Vote DimmuKlok
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ET: Dude, you only have five minutes to post.
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TKHawkins? Gumshoe? Anyone?
I'm thinking this is so tough to get a majority that we might even have picked scum.
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Goddamnit. Now imagine how hard it would have been to get a lynch if we'd picked scum. Maybe on subsequent days we should try to get some sort of majority down by 20 hours before the lynch.
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The other player who's directly suspicious from the vote pattern is Gumshoe, as he was present 40 minutes before the deadline and didn't switch his vote to the lynch candidate he'd voted for previously. On the other hand, it looked rather like got out of bed, switched his vote to Midnight and then went back to bed again.
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Gah, just realised why that lynch was dumb, which is silly because I figured it last night. Before the last rush, the distribution of the votes and the active player count meant that it was essentially impossible to lynch scum. The correct choice was to no-lynch.
Off to flagellate myself and then sleep. We do the 20-hour dummy voting run on day 2.
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On February 19 2012 15:40 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 11:39 jaj22 wrote:
Gah, just realised why that lynch was dumb, which is silly because I figured it last night. Before the last rush, the distribution of the votes and the active player count meant that it was essentially impossible to lynch scum. The correct choice was to no-lynch.
Off to flagellate myself and then sleep. We do the 20-hour dummy voting run on day 2.
Hindsight bias. If you figured it out last night you should have said so, so you either didn't believe that you were right or you withheld information from us.
It was speculative reasoning at the time, but I hinted at it in these two posts:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13573775
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13574870
I'll explain the eventual reasoning because it's important for the conclusion. Before the late compromise switch, we had 4-5 players each on ET and MG who had no interest in switching to the other, plus another 6 votes scattered between DYH, Sloosh, Gumshoe and DimmuKlok. We had maybe 6-7 players who were active and willing to switch votes. Unless by some fluke scum were all absent for the lynch, we needed scum support to reach 8 votes.
The trouble is that this is extremely likely to happen again, because it's a consequence of the lynch deadline. We really need to be narrowing down the field of candidates long before the deadline so that every townie has a chance to make their vote count.
The plan: We set a dummy deadline 27 hours after the start of day 2, and we try to get a "lynch" by then. Anyone not treating the deadline seriously should be considered scummy.
Someone please agree with this plan before I go completely insane.
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Gumshoe: Actually I very much appreciate you looking outside the common suspects for scum. Even if you're wrong, the reactions are always interesting. Don't bother posting town reads unless someone needs defending.
Your theory on Janaan is probably wrong though. Not only would it be terrible scum play to buddy up to your scumbuddy, but according to Qatol in the NMM3 post-game, buddying up to veterans is a common town-tell. Newbie town players look to veterans for support, newbie scum players look to their ScumQT.
Despite this, buddying up to townies as scum can be an extremely effective tactic as long as the town player isn't likely to get lynched otherwise. Unless you think DYH is town and the attacks on him are town-driven, Janaan as scum doesn't make much sense there either.
A lot of players don't like getting buddied because of this scum tactic. Check out this post from ET:
On February 18 2012 09:44 EchelonTee wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 09:42 MannerKiss wrote:
Sorry i've been absent, work related stuff. Trying to catch up on the thread.
Doyouhas pretty strong townie feeling to me.
gumshoe - trying my best to overcome some scummy feeling from the earliest post, but it seems to have cleared up a little since the poll.
Dimmuklok giving me the strongest scum vibe of all so far, (and not just because he's aggressive toward me).
ET - also giving off a townie feeling
i'll catch up on everyone else when i get home this evening don't buddy to me, I don't like that. Talk about my points, if you agree with me.
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Worst detective ever 
Sorry guys, failed you completely.
GG.
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Oh well. At least my town reads were good :-)
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On February 25 2012 09:12 GreYMisT wrote:
Im going to quote the entire obs QT here:
"there is no way alderan is scum"
I never mentioned him except for hating that day 2 post where he put ET in red for no good reason. There were about six players I'd have lynched before him though, so well played.
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I did wonder about Alderan complaining at me telling DimmuKlok how to defend himself:
On February 18 2012 08:22 Alderan wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 08:20 jaj22 wrote:
This thread is terribly quiet. I kinda miss Gumshoe. Status update time:
MannerKiss, Zelblade, TKHawkins and EchelonTee haven't shown up yet today. That's going to make it tough to get a majority lynch if they keep the same hours tomorrow. The first three of those have lurked hardcore so far and really need to post.
DimmuKlok hasn't posted since the case against him, which is increasingly scummy behaviour. I'd recommend that he posts some reads (not MannerKiss/Gumshoe: too easy) rather than defending it directly, but posting with substance is essential.
Let him respond as he normally would...
But I eventually decided that scum wouldn't risk something like that. I overthink this stuff
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Honestly Midnight wasn't that bad apart from his unwillingess to defend himself properly. When I made my case I thought it was 50/50, and then he posted pretty well overnight. I stuck with my read because I thought the bandwagon on ET was scum-driven and defensive. Only half right there.
But I can't complain about anyone else playing badly. I had strong scumreads on Steveling and TKHawkins on the second half of day 1 but I just didn't have the will to push them. Nothing to do with being DT, just psychological weakness. Probably looked solid blue to scum.
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EPT
