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On January 13 2012 10:10 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 14:09 Probulous wrote:Also, if you've found one mafia you should come out in the open and tell us about it. There are other situations where either medic or detective should come out, such as if you know 3 confirmed town and were nearing LYLO. Use your best judgement on those situations. Does everyone agree that if you find a mafia the detective should come out with them? Can we try to agree on something :p This just puts you into a WIFOm situation where you end up trading a DT for one mafia. I don't like that trade. DT should stay hidden. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 14:17 Probulous wrote:
On the topic of DTs, medics and the such. I stand by what I wrote in my analysis of both Cookie and Cephiro, I don't want to discuss them. My personel preference is for blues to stay hidden and do their own thing. I agree that a medic should obviously choose a dangerous townie (dangerous from a mafia POV), but again we don't need to discuss this. This is the last thing I will say about blue roles. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 14:19 Probulous wrote:* Personal. I hate it when people get that wrong and I just did it. For shame  For those interested. This was when Sheth was going on about the DT.
Probulous that is SO clutch 
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OH GAWD. If Blurry is reading this thread, THAT is how you roleclaim.
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On January 13 2012 10:21 gonzaw wrote:However, I find it weird that you didn't play like a "blue" instinctly plays, like I read on Ver's Guide.
Basically you're saying, "You didn't play detective the way I wanted you too, because I'm mafia and it made it hard for me to be sure that you were a blue."
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GG Probulous. Brilliant, brilliant play my friend.
Ceph, bkrow, we gotta get Gonzaw.
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With me and bkrow as town, here are the possible scum combos:
Gonzaw, Paperscraps
Cephiro, Gonzaw
Cehiro, Paperscraps
I put these in order of probability in my eyes.
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EBWOP: I don't really think you are scum, Cephiro. You have to be included because you weren't confirmed by Prob, but you were the reason he checked Sheth, so you're town in my eyes.
Lynch Gonzaw, then Paperscraps and we win!
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And bkrow, you have to be active man. We need you in order to get a majority.
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Cephiro: This was my case on Paperscraps. I've included the subsequent interactions between Paper and I as well. Sorry it's a little hard to read since there is so much, but if you open up all the nested quotes and really read it I think you'll see that this is a really good case against Paperscraps.
On January 11 2012 05:23 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 15:41 Probulous wrote:
Cats, you confuse me, so how about a deal? I will keep my position open on your alignment if you give me a thorough case on why I should vote for Blurry over you.
The others seem pretty happy lynching you, which bothers me. This wagon is a little too easy to get going. Whether that is because your mafia brethren have given up on you or because you are town, is hard to say. Convince me.
In particular, look at my reasons for thinking Blurry is town and poke holes in it. I want people to tear my analysis apart, right now the rest of the town seem content to just accept stuff that is well formatted. You will go a long way to redeeming yourself in my eyes if you can do that for me.
I will try my best to read your case without bias, however if you are going to get this town to vote with you it will need to write a convincing case. Blurry hasn't done himself any favours so it should be a fair fight.
Show me what you got! Probulous you probably weren't expecting this, but I'm about to change up my read. The more I read Blurry's thread, and I've read through it multiple times now, the more I think he is just a lurker newb not sure how to contribute. Even when he sheeped against me so hard recently, he admitted that he was doing it immediately. He was the 2nd person to vote for Sheth (and he had a surprisingly good read on him for posting so little). And the WIFOM posts I called him out on earlier make more sense in light of the fact that he says he has been using his gut alot since he feels his analysis isn't up to par. Your gut is the only way to make a decision about a WIFOM situation. I feel like I can read newb play, being that I was/still am one, and Blurry definitely strikes me as a lurker newb town now. Thats being said, he still needs to post more. All of this reading wasn't in vain, because after perusing through filters I found a different target. Paperscraps: Being a Replacement Doesn't Make You Innocent ![[image loading]](http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51Pp9Bilr1L._SL500_AA300_.jpg) A replacement for Gretorp, Paperscraps wasn't done any favors by having a terrible predecessor. Gretorp was a shady, shady player, drawing the suspicions of everyone despite having a small number of posts. Tunkeg the night killed townie called out Gretorp for lurking and responded with this: Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 01:13 Gretorp wrote:On January 04 2012 23:40 Tunkeg wrote:
Looks like the only one I will get to discuss with is me, myself and I.
For Gretorp and Xeris please post before I give you both (imaginary) NASaL fractures... I am no lynch all lurkers fAnatic, but for now I will be more then happy voting for anyone of you unless you start contributing. So tag, gretorp you're it:
##Vote Gretorp Tuneg, It doesnt make sense to vote me. If you have watched any NASL or seen me play mafia, you know i'm genius level but inexperienced with mafia. ALL times i've been in tl mafia, i've been a townie so my ability play townie is better than mafia. If you take my genius brain and then apply the situations, the EV for me in general is positive to the point where you dont want to vote me. But you probably know this, hence you want to kick me off because youre a mafia. SO I VOTE YOU, AND YOUR COUNTRY. #VOTE TUNEG What is this other than OMGUS and an attempt to confuse the town? A very shitty move for a townie to make. After being pressured on this ridiculous post, Gretorp responds: Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 03:20 Gretorp wrote:
haha aws just kidding with the post but I will definitely once I analyze more ;-) In other words, "LOL jk guys if I promise to make reads will you stop pressuring me?" Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 07:36 Gretorp wrote:
cephiro, why are you trying to create outlandish narratives to make a decisive choice? You aren't' leaving much range for people to be townie. so interesting! :-) Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 12:08 Gretorp wrote:
I work for most of the day and this goes pretty fast while I do a lot of projects for NASL. That being said, I want to know how many people actually believe this knowing that assumption. And I'm assuming people are thinking that i have as much time as them, hence I'm interested if you change your position based on activity. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 12:09 Gretorp wrote:
And i will be doing a huge post otnight most likely just got to get caught up since it grew a lot These are Gretorp's last 3 posts. Post #1 is an attempt to put pressure on someone else. Post #2 is an attempt to make an excuse to relieve the pressure on himself. And Post #3 is an attempt to make a promise to relieve the pressure on himself. And then poof, he was gone. This reads really scummy to me. Enter Paperscraps. Here's his first post. Show nested quote +On January 09 2012 14:44 Paperscraps wrote:Hey Everybody, Glad to be here. I have been "semi" keeping up with the thread, but I will need to read through the filters to get a better read on people. I definitely plan on being more active than my predecessor.  I seem to be leaning a bit toward scum on blurry and xeris (kronhjort). I can't stay up too late tonight due to school in the morning. I plan on providing some analysis and reads tomorrow. Much better than Gretorp, but that isn't saying much. His reads are pretty interesting though. He picks Xeris, a bigger lurker than Gretorp, and Blurry, a player already under an eye of scrutiny. This is an easy thing to do. And he doesn't give any reasoning for his picks. Sheeping/ghosing, call it what you will. It definitely isn't original though. Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 09:39 Paperscraps wrote:Hey all, just got home from school. Ok onto reads and analysis. Blurry Scum 1. + Show Spoiler +On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote:On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. Terrible post, Gonz is right this tells us nothing at all. However you at least posted your thoughts on Sheth (Cats I'm looking at you). So to make it easy Blurry, would you vote to lynch Sheth? If not why not? Yes I would, and will. #Vote: Liquid'Sheth As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it. Either Blurry is trying to bus his mafia buddy, to alleviate further pressure from himself or has great gut instincts. I am leaning more toward the former, but he did make somewhat of a case about Sheth just pressuring and not weeding out scum. Read through his filter, something just doesn't feel right about him. I am interested in what his response will be. Xeris (Kron) Null Not much to say about Xeris (Kron) atm. Better to focus attention on other more active players until the need arises. Lurking is tricky and Kron might just be following the role already laid out before him, but that will only last for so long. I honestly think both players are/were inactive and not playing the game at all. If anything though is leads to a slightly scummy read. Note: I guess the same case could be made about me, but I hope to post more frequently and provide real analysis and reads. I am new to Mafia via forums though, so I will have to find the groove here. CatsNHats Town Either inexperienced town or smart scum. In his first post he said he never played before, so that leads to believe he is just an inexperienced townie. No real reason to lie on your first post, unless you just want to troll the whole game, but I guess I would want to see the good in people not the bad. He has posted a bunch of wishy-washy banter and defeatist attitude. Again either noob town or smart scum. Still leaning more towards noob Jitsu, Probulous and Cephiro Town. It will be interesting to see who the mafia kills, I think after tonight we will be able to get a better read on the mafia. Next post. Blurry stays scum. Xeris changes to null (probably because he's caught up with everyone's opinion Xeris by now), and I am town. Keep this in mind. He also posts the 3 clearest town reads as his own. Nothing original. When Probulous questions him on his reads, Paper agrees and changes his mind about me, claiming he will re-read my filter. Xeris is also off his radar completely. Most interesting however is the fact that he sticks to his case that Blurry is scummy. Paper claims that: "Blurry doesn't agree to vote up Sheth until you ask him if he will. All his posts previous to that have no read on Sheth or say he he may be slightly town. I guess you are right that it is stupid to jump from Cats to Sheth, but you, one of the best readers in this game, think he is town now. Maybe that is what he wanted to happen. I still think he is scummy." Blurry acutally did post analysis on Sheth. Even though it was scant, it was correct, and he was the only one up to that point other than Prob to question Sheth. Paper, as scum, knows that Blurry is town, so he's neglecting facts to cast a shadow on a suspected player. Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 10:39 Paperscraps wrote:
Re-reading the filter of Cats and Jitsu. Jitsu being confirmed townie leads me to Cats being scum. Cats wishy-washy garbage and acting with Sheth saved him for one more day, but Jitsu's death has saved the town I think.
I am still leaning toward scum on Blurry as well.
We should deal with Cats first though and do Jitsu some justice. Paperscraps then busses Jitsu, using his death during N2 as evidence for Jitsu being correct about me being scum. This is sheeping against the most suspected townie. Paperscraps next two posts are further sheeping of Jitsu's analysis of me. There is no reason to quote them, they are one-liners and are easy to find on his small filter. With my new opinion that Blurry is town, I think Paperscraps is scum sheeping against the two questioned townies, me and Blurry. Because of all of this reasoning above: ##Unvote: Blurry##Vote: PaperscrapsI look forward to your response Paperscraps. And at this point I think Xeris/Kronhjort is going to get mod-killed, and if he flips blue/green, I will be PISSED.
On January 11 2012 13:26 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 12:02 Paperscraps wrote:On January 11 2012 05:23 CatsnHats wrote:
Much better than Gretorp, but that isn't saying much. His reads are pretty interesting though. He picks Xeris, a bigger lurker than Gretorp, and Blurry, a player already under an eye of scrutiny. This is an easy thing to do. And he doesn't give any reasoning for his picks. Sheeping/ghosing, call it what you will. It definitely isn't original though. 1.Xeris is just a hunch, but really a non-factor as long as long as you are still alive. I had to post something to show I was active. It takes time to get caught up, and re-reading filters definitely reveals more and more as time goes on. Kinda making my case. Just because you wanted to show you were active doesn't mean you have to post no-analysis sheep filler.
Next post. Blurry stays scum. Xeris changes to null (probably because he's caught up with everyone's opinion Xeris by now), and I am town. Keep this in mind. He also posts the 3 clearest town reads as his own. Nothing original. When Probulous questions him on his reads, Paper agrees and changes his mind about me, claiming he will re-read my filter. Xeris is also off his radar completely. Most interesting however is the fact that he sticks to his case that Blurry is scummy. 2.I still am not quite sure about Blurry, he hasn't really done anything to justify himself as of yet. Also your sudden change of heart about him isn't helping that either, because you are the scummiest read town has at the moment. I justified my change of heart with analysis to support it, so you shouldn't have a problem with my new opinion other than to scrutinize it with analysis of your own.Paper claims that:
"Blurry doesn't agree to vote up Sheth until you ask him if he will. All his posts previous to that have no read on Sheth or say he he may be slightly town. I guess you are right that it is stupid to jump from Cats to Sheth, but you, one of the best readers in this game, think he is town now. Maybe that is what he wanted to happen. I still think he is scummy."
Blurry acutally did post analysis on Sheth. Even though it was scant, it was correct, and he was the only one up to that point other than Prob to question Sheth. Paper, as scum, knows that Blurry is town, so he's neglecting facts to cast a shadow on a suspected player. 3.This is what I was referring to. Blurry is clearly is leaning towards town on Sheth. + Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote:2: Sheth Theres one post by him that caught my attention: Show nested quote +Jitsu, we've played before and you probably know my scum read and I know your town read This for me could mean one of two things: A. A subtle claim to not being scum based on the logic that Jitsu would know immediately. Or B. I will be able to tell whether or not Jitsu is or is not scum. Other than this he has been aggressive in terms of trying to get people on the defensive (CatsnHats) which I like as holes will show in peoples stories. Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell. On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. Paperscraps then busses Jitsu, using his death during N2 as evidence for Jitsu being correct about me being scum. This is sheeping against the most suspected townie. Paperscraps next two posts are further sheeping of Jitsu's analysis of me. There is no reason to quote them, they are one-liners and are easy to find on his small filter.
With my new opinion that Blurry is town, I think Paperscraps is scum sheeping against the two questioned townies, me and Blurry.
Because of all of this reasoning above:
##Unvote: Blurry
##Vote: Paperscraps
I look forward to your response Paperscraps.
And at this point I think Xeris/Kronhjort is going to get mod-killed, and if he flips blue/green, I will be PISSED. 4.Basically this all sums up to a redirection or deflection of scrutiny that is on you Cats and Blurry. I am positive that Cats in scum now, because he is scared that I suspect him of it and now gives some pretty trivial/wrong accusations against me. Sounds like he is getting desperate. This also further makes Blurry look bad. All of a sudden Blurry is clean in your eyes? or maybe he is your scum buddy! I am guessing that latter. I bet this was your plan for the whole day to vote up Blurry, then have some sudden revelation and vote up a townie who isn't even responsible for half of his time in the game yet. Again I backed up my change of heart with analysis, something you yourself cannot claim. Also nice job saying that I am redirecting scrutiny from myself and Blurry when I just finished claiming you were doing the same to us. Come on, that's blatant OMGUS and you know it. And that is a definite WIFOM hypothetical if I have ever seen one. ##Vote: CatsNHats Overall this is a poor rebuttal Paperscraps. My answers are bolded and underlined.
On January 11 2012 14:55 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 13:52 Paperscraps wrote:On January 11 2012 13:04 CatsnHats wrote:
@Cephiro I included Gretorp in my analysis of Paperscraps because they are the same person. I would be remiss to leave out my opinion on Gretorp and just analyze Paperscraps, that would just be throwing away half of the available information we have on him/them. What are the things that you mentioned you did? Have you already analyzed Paperscraps? If so I missed it and apologize for that. Can you requote it to me? Also, you say Prob asked for my case on Blurry and that I didn't write it. But I did, it's at the top of my post on Paperscraps. I came up with the same conclusion that Prob did about Blurry (town for now), but with separate analysis from him. I've been taking Prob for granted up to an extent, but remember I did ask the town if we were following him too blindly. I have an overwhelming gut feeling that Prob is town. With the sheer amount of posting he done (like 8 of the 36 pages), he is either a really good town or the most ballsy scum ever. I think it's the former. I like the sucking up to Ceph here. Apologizing definitely isn't a scum tell at all. /endsarcasm Really? I know apologizing can be a scum-tell but I actually missed/misunderstood what he was referring too, apologized for it, and he cleared it up. You're reaching. Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 14:00 Paperscraps wrote:If worst comes to worst and we can't get a majority on Cats, then I wouldn't be against lynching Xeris(Kron). If you are sure that Xeris or I are mafia, then I am sure that it is him. This would help my case towards being town and we would be one less inactive. Lynching Cats or Xeris is win-win for me. And of course lynching the lurker or me would be best for you, because neither of them are YOU. And that doesn't help your case towards being town. Alot of the grunt work analysis done on me was before you entered the game and I picked up my play, you have no claim to it other than bandwagon. And lynching a lurker gets no one town cred.
On January 12 2012 06:18 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 13:52 Paperscraps wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 11 2012 13:26 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 12:02 Paperscraps wrote:On January 11 2012 05:23 CatsnHats wrote:
Much better than Gretorp, but that isn't saying much. His reads are pretty interesting though. He picks Xeris, a bigger lurker than Gretorp, and Blurry, a player already under an eye of scrutiny. This is an easy thing to do. And he doesn't give any reasoning for his picks. Sheeping/ghosing, call it what you will. It definitely isn't original though. 1.Xeris is just a hunch, but really a non-factor as long as long as you are still alive. I had to post something to show I was active. It takes time to get caught up, and re-reading filters definitely reveals more and more as time goes on. Kinda making my case. Just because you wanted to show you were active doesn't mean you have to post no-analysis sheep filler.
Next post. Blurry stays scum. Xeris changes to null (probably because he's caught up with everyone's opinion Xeris by now), and I am town. Keep this in mind. He also posts the 3 clearest town reads as his own. Nothing original. When Probulous questions him on his reads, Paper agrees and changes his mind about me, claiming he will re-read my filter. Xeris is also off his radar completely. Most interesting however is the fact that he sticks to his case that Blurry is scummy. 2.I still am not quite sure about Blurry, he hasn't really done anything to justify himself as of yet. Also your sudden change of heart about him isn't helping that either, because you are the scummiest read town has at the moment. I justified my change of heart with analysis to support it, so you shouldn't have a problem with my new opinion other than to scrutinize it with analysis of your own.Paper claims that:
"Blurry doesn't agree to vote up Sheth until you ask him if he will. All his posts previous to that have no read on Sheth or say he he may be slightly town. I guess you are right that it is stupid to jump from Cats to Sheth, but you, one of the best readers in this game, think he is town now. Maybe that is what he wanted to happen. I still think he is scummy."
Blurry acutally did post analysis on Sheth. Even though it was scant, it was correct, and he was the only one up to that point other than Prob to question Sheth. Paper, as scum, knows that Blurry is town, so he's neglecting facts to cast a shadow on a suspected player. 3.This is what I was referring to. Blurry is clearly is leaning towards town on Sheth. + Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote:2: Sheth Theres one post by him that caught my attention: Show nested quote +Jitsu, we've played before and you probably know my scum read and I know your town read This for me could mean one of two things: A. A subtle claim to not being scum based on the logic that Jitsu would know immediately. Or B. I will be able to tell whether or not Jitsu is or is not scum. Other than this he has been aggressive in terms of trying to get people on the defensive (CatsnHats) which I like as holes will show in peoples stories. Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell. On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. Paperscraps then busses Jitsu, using his death during N2 as evidence for Jitsu being correct about me being scum. This is sheeping against the most suspected townie. Paperscraps next two posts are further sheeping of Jitsu's analysis of me. There is no reason to quote them, they are one-liners and are easy to find on his small filter.
With my new opinion that Blurry is town, I think Paperscraps is scum sheeping against the two questioned townies, me and Blurry.
Because of all of this reasoning above:
##Unvote: Blurry
##Vote: Paperscraps
I look forward to your response Paperscraps.
And at this point I think Xeris/Kronhjort is going to get mod-killed, and if he flips blue/green, I will be PISSED. 4.Basically this all sums up to a redirection or deflection of scrutiny that is on you Cats and Blurry. I am positive that Cats in scum now, because he is scared that I suspect him of it and now gives some pretty trivial/wrong accusations against me. Sounds like he is getting desperate. This also further makes Blurry look bad. All of a sudden Blurry is clean in your eyes? or maybe he is your scum buddy! I am guessing that latter. I bet this was your plan for the whole day to vote up Blurry, then have some sudden revelation and vote up a townie who isn't even responsible for half of his time in the game yet. Again I backed up my change of heart with analysis, something you yourself cannot claim. Also nice job saying that I am redirecting scrutiny from myself and Blurry when I just finished claiming you were doing the same to us. Come on, that's blatant OMGUS and you know it. And that is a definite WIFOM hypothetical if I have ever seen one. ##Vote: CatsNHats Overall this is a poor rebuttal Paperscraps. My answers are bolded and underlined. 1. I don't really get how posting my initial feel and stance on the town leads to you thinking I am scum. I posted, because I didn't want people to think they had another lurker/inactive ruining the game for them. 2. As for your analysis of Blurry: On January 11 2012 05:23 CatsnHats wrote:Probulous you probably weren't expecting this, but I'm about to change up my read. The more I read Blurry's thread, and I've read through it multiple times now, the more I think he is just a lurker newb not sure how to contribute. Even when he sheeped against me so hard recently, he admitted that he was doing it immediately. He was the 2nd person to vote for Sheth (and he had a surprisingly good read on him for posting so little). And the WIFOM posts I called him out on earlier make more sense in light of the fact that he says he has been using his gut alot since he feels his analysis isn't up to par. Your gut is the only way to make a decision about a WIFOM situation. I feel like I can read newb play, being that I was/still am one, and Blurry definitely strikes me as a lurker newb town now. Thats being said, he still needs to post more. I can actually agree with this. I wish he would post more. He has you pegged as scum, so that makes him a little less noob though, haha. 3. Blurry does call out Sheth. I skipped over that because he does it in a shy way though and never follows through with analysis. 4. I had suspicion of you long before you voted me up, this isn't retaliation or OMGUS. I don't know what WIFOM hypothetical you are talking about either. + Show Spoiler +On January 11 2012 13:04 CatsnHats wrote:
@Cephiro I included Gretorp in my analysis of Paperscraps because they are the same person. I would be remiss to leave out my opinion on Gretorp and just analyze Paperscraps, that would just be throwing away half of the available information we have on him/them. What are the things that you mentioned you did? Have you already analyzed Paperscraps? If so I missed it and apologize for that. Can you requote it to me? Also, you say Prob asked for my case on Blurry and that I didn't write it. But I did, it's at the top of my post on Paperscraps. I came up with the same conclusion that Prob did about Blurry (town for now), but with separate analysis from him. I've been taking Prob for granted up to an extent, but remember I did ask the town if we were following him too blindly. I have an overwhelming gut feeling that Prob is town. With the sheer amount of posting he done (like 8 of the 36 pages), he is either a really good town or the most ballsy scum ever. I think it's the former. I like the sucking up to Ceph here. Apologizing definitely isn't a scum tell at all. /endsarcasm What out of this post am I dodging, exactly? There isn't really a question posed to me. For #1, it's good that you posted and are active, but you were just echoing the past (very vocalized) concerns of other players, so it doesn't really do anything to help you. I love #2. "As for your analysis of Blurry, I actually agree with it." Haha I thought you were going to shoot holes in it, but oh well. And in #3, you admit to skipping over the evidence that debunks your argument (that Blurry thought Sheth was town), that just doesn't sit well with me. As for #4, the WIFOM hypothetical is you saying this in the post where you vote for me (section bolded): Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 12:02 Paperscraps wrote:
4.Basically this all sums up to a redirection or deflection of scrutiny that is on you Cats and Blurry. I am positive that Cats in scum now, because he is scared that I suspect him of it and now gives some pretty trivial/wrong accusations against me. Sounds like he is getting desperate. This also further makes Blurry look bad.
All of a sudden Blurry is clean in your eyes? or maybe he is your scum buddy! I am guessing that latter. I bet this was your plan for the whole day to vote up Blurry, then have some sudden revelation and vote up a townie who isn't even responsible for half of his time in the game yet.
##Vote: CatsNHats This whole scenario is impossible to prove and is pretty outlandish if you ask me. WIFOM like this does nothing to help the town. It is a good way for scum to deflect pressure though.
He hasn't really posted much since, trying to fly under the radar if you ask me. Him sheeping against Blurry makes him look pretty bad after the fact too. I don't have an official write up on Gonzaw yet, but I think we should lynch Paperscraps first because he is the safer of the two options in my eyes. That way we can extend the game another day and you/bkrow can make more reads on Gonzaw and me to make up your minds between the two of us.
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On January 13 2012 11:05 bkrow wrote:So i'm here! I am running out for an hour, but i have caught up on the thread; Prob a DT.. Fuck me! Did he say who he checked on all the nights? I just wanted to let ya'll know i am here for about 3 and a half hours and then i will probably AFK except for my vote (i am getting married next weekend, and this weekend is a big deal in my religion) I have always been suspicious of Paper so that is where i will place my vote by the end of the day unless i get convinced otherwise. BRB 1 hour peeps let's do this town!
N1: Sheth
N2: bkrow (you)
N3: Gonzaw, but we didn't get to find out his role.
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Paperscraps, you seem to think that it is important what order I think we should lynch you and Gonzaw. I did flip-flop from Gonzaw to you 1st, but it doesn't really matter either way. If you want to lynch your scumbuddy Gonzaw first, then by all means I'll be down to do it. You're both scum in my eyes.
Your argument makes me shake my head because you came into the game late and I can almost guarantee that you only read my filter, not the posts from other people that surround mine. You say this:
"Cats has been posting a bunch of filler posts about Probu being awesome and sucking up to him pretty much.
Cats claims he "knew" that Prob was DT and that we "HAD" to lynch Sheth, but this is after the fact and doesn't mean anything. Cats is using Probu to dissuade others from thinking he is scum."
On January 13 2012 10:09 CatsnHats wrote:
Thanks Prob, you've been our MVP up until now. I knew you were DT because you said you HAD to lynch Sheth, even if you're arguments were irrational. I thought you had checked my N2 though, because you changed your opinion of me and I didn't think that was possible unless you had looked at me.
It's not sucking up because I said it when we all thought Probulous was going to die (himself included). This was like a goodbye post. For the record, Probulous is/was awesome. If we manage to win this, it will be because of him. That being said, I don't even think you read my post correctly. I didn't say "we HAD to lynch Sheth." I said Probulous HAD to lynch Sheth, even if he had to use irrational arguments to convince people. Why did I say that? Because I was quoting what Probulous said right here:
On January 09 2012 10:09 Probulous wrote:
@Sheth, I hope that wasn't too bad! I know some of my arguments weren't exactly rational but I had to get you lynched.
Maybe chat after the game. Thanks for playing!
Hmmmm... why would someone push so hard to get a person lynched, even using irrational arguments? Because they are the DT. Come on Paperscraps, read the thread, not just filters.
For CatsnHats:
Gonz goes from (slight town) to (null) to (very-pro town) to (suspicious) to (scum). Very minimal reasoning for all of these assertions.
As for my change of opinion on Gonzaw, why is that not allowed? Did you check the time stamps on those posts?
Slight-town: 7th
Null: 9th
Very-pro town: 9th (I had just checked his filter, and said he "played very pro town up to that point." That doesn't mean I am certain he is town. You even agreed he had because of the way he bussed Sheth. This is a town read in my eyes, but I'll leave it as very pro town for the sake of argument.)
Suspicious: 11th
Scum: 13th
That is 2 days in between most of those posts. 2 days is ALOT of posts and opportunities to make reads, especially for someone like Gonzaw who hasn't made a glaring mistake to completely change town sentiment on him. The reason I kept changing was his relentless aggression and cursing in his defense of himself. It kept throwing me off. I think he is mafia now though, and if we lynch him and he flips red, it shouldn't matter that I thought he was town in the early game, when reads are so difficult to make.
You are also getting on to me for my posting before the lynch and nightkill posts. You say they are filler. They may look like that now, but the hour before each of those events was a flurry of posting. If you think I'm scum because I posted a lot during the most stressful period of the game to date, then so be it.
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On January 13 2012 17:12 bkrow wrote:
I.e. if Paper flips red then we can assume Cats and Gonz are likely green and Ceph is the remaining scum;
If he flips green.. we lose? lol
The issue i have is that one of the above players could have just bussed a mafia buddy to throw us all off; but i doubt that much effort would have beeen put into an analytical post which has the chance of convincing the town on a lynch.
Well.. thoughts?
Why does Paper flipping red mean Gonz is green and Ceph is red? You said in the post before it that Ceph is a townie. I think Paper is bussing Gonz to save himself the next day and vice versa.
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On January 13 2012 10:48 Cephiro wrote:Show nested quote +On January 13 2012 10:42 CatsnHats wrote:
EBWOP: I don't really think you are scum, Cephiro. You have to be included because you weren't confirmed by Prob, but you were the reason he checked Sheth, so you're town in my eyes.
Lynch Gonzaw, then Paperscraps and we win! But you weren't confirmed by Prob either any more than me. (I consider confirmed by Prob only the people that he checked) I'm still not sold on that you would be a townie. Could you provide YOUR cases on Gonzaw and Paperscraps, and include that why do you think the other is a bigger threat? I will be leaving in a few minutes myself, but when I come back, I'm going to post a lot. A LOT. (And it's not going to be useless fluff.)
I know I haven't responded to your analysis against me in the early game. But remember that I said I couldn't defend myself against it. Up until the Sheth lynch (I really thought he was town, it was a gut feeling, kinda like Prob's gut feeling on Blurry), I flip-flopped, I bandwagoned, I did everything in my power to not be killed (see martyr post lol). If I was mafia, don't you think Sheth (and possibly the mafia's coach if they're using one) would've taught me how to play better in the beginning? Sheth was the first person to subtly pressure me and I almost fell apart right there. I haven't used a coach and realized after the Sheth lynch (perhaps to late) that analysis and active contribution were the only way I was going to prove myself. You've admitted in multiple posts that I have stepped my game up, enough to where you even placed a vote on Paperscraps (until the Blurry incident).
On January 12 2012 09:40 Cephiro wrote:
##Vote Paperscraps
If he flips green and Cats is alive in the morning.... I'll vote for him and won't change my vote no matter what.
I do this only because you've picked up your play and you finally stand by your case. I hope I am doing right in trusting you.
Ceph, I'm asking you to put your trust in me again. Think of me as Cats, the active contributor and analyzer of late, not Cats, the newb wishy-washy trash player of the early game.
On January 10 2012 10:23 Probulous wrote:
WIFOM alert, which is more likely?
Scum knew I was iffy about Cats and that Jitsu would be the one pushing his case, so they shot him.
Or
Jitsu had correctly noticed in Gonz's filter and scum quickly shot him to stop suspicion of Gonz?
Or
We have no fucking clue and this is a waste of time?
I bolded the case that I think is correct. Probulous and Jitsu were suspicious of Gonzaw. Now both of them are not here,
On January 13 2012 10:48 Cephiro wrote:
I'm still not sold on that you would be a townie. Could you provide YOUR cases on Gonzaw and Paperscraps, and include that why do you think the other is a bigger threat?
I provided the Paperscraps case, but I haven't done a full blown Gonzaw case yet. I don't know if a full blown case is needed on him though. We have Prob and Jitsu suspecting him, and now they're both gone. That counts for something. I still post something about Gonz later though. As for who is more dangerous, I kinda think Paperscraps is. I don't think Gonzaw is capable of defending himself well other than cursing and rhetorical questioning, Paperscraps is beginning to be more active (although I don't think his arguments are that great). I could see Paperscraps convincing you and bkrow that he is just a newbie though, and that scares me. That being said, I'm fine with voting off either, because I think both are mafia. What do think Ceph?
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EBWOP: Cephiro and bkrow have alot to read between Gonzaw, Paperscraps, and I. I'm not going to post again until they've written their thoughts. Also, I find this very interesting:
On January 13 2012 09:32 Cephiro wrote:
One point that I find interesting is that Cats and Probu have had a lot of discussion between them, whereas Paper and Gonzaw have been playing much more individually. Is it a tell of something? Maybe. It could be or it could not be.
Scum trying to stay off one another's toes? I think so.
@Gonzaw, who are you even quoting in your post? You didn't put anyone's names when you quoted them. Hopefully you didn't quote more than one person.
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On January 14 2012 14:31 Paperscraps wrote:
Summary:
Both gonzaw and Cats are slipping now that the pressure is on. Both are making mistakes/contradictions. They are being evasive. Just look at how Cats is being so passive, yet he knows I am mafia! Where is the analysis! We are MYLO and he is dodging. gonzaw I am not worried about, it is plain as day that he is mafia.
I implore Cephiro and bkrow to let go of the fact that Probu liked Cats more than me. Probu has been wrong before. Probu never made a solid case against me. Probu didn't provide hardly any analysis on me at all. Don't let opinions of others decide the towns fate. Use logic. I want to see what YOU guys have to say!
Seriously? You're saying I'm being passive and that I haven't posted analysis against you. Don't you remember the long argument I made against you? The one that started the bus for your lynch? The one I re-quoted on THE LAST PAGE? Please tell me you haven't forgotten about it that fast. I even posted our interactions after my analysis, where you poorly defended yourself and dug yourself a deeper hole. I not going to repost that on every page just so you can't say I haven't posted analysis against you. As for your new analysis against me, I answered it (below), and you agreed with me, saying I made good points. The other sentences you post don't really mean anything. Just because you call something filler doesn't make it filler, that was the crux of my argument that you later agreed in the same post.
On January 14 2012 04:37 Paperscraps wrote:Show nested quote +On January 14 2012 02:13 CatsnHats wrote:Paperscraps, you seem to think that it is important what order I think we should lynch you and Gonzaw. I did flip-flop from Gonzaw to you 1st, but it doesn't really matter either way. If you want to lynch your scumbuddy Gonzaw first, then by all means I'll be down to do it. You're both scum in my eyes. This is an obvious deflection of attention from Cats' own self again. He doesn't provide a case against Gonzaw.Your argument makes me shake my head because you came into the game late and I can almost guarantee that you only read my filter, not the posts from other people that surround mine. So reading a filter is a bad thing? To answer your question, I did read mostly through your filter, but important posts I read through the thread to get the general context. What is your point here?You say this: (Paperscraps says this, I moved this line for clarificiation of my point above. "Cats has been posting a bunch of filler posts about Probu being awesome and sucking up to him pretty much. Cats claims he "knew" that Prob was DT and that we "HAD" to lynch Sheth, but this is after the fact and doesn't mean anything. Cats is using Probu to dissuade others from thinking he is scum." On January 13 2012 10:09 CatsnHats wrote:
Thanks Prob, you've been our MVP up until now. I knew you were DT because you said you HAD to lynch Sheth, even if you're arguments were irrational. I thought you had checked my N2 though, because you changed your opinion of me and I didn't think that was possible unless you had looked at me. It's not sucking up because I said it when we all thought Probulous was going to die (himself included). This was like a goodbye post. For the record, Probulous is/was awesome. If we manage to win this, it will be because of him. That being said, I don't even think you read my post correctly. I didn't say "we HAD to lynch Sheth." I said Probulous HAD to lynch Sheth, even if he had to use irrational arguments to convince people. Why did I say that? Because I was quoting what Probulous said right here: I didn't say that "you HAD to lynch Sheth". I said that it was impossible to prove that you knew these things at the time they came up. It is a goodbye post, but it doesn't bring anything useful to the table. Filler is filler.On January 09 2012 10:09 Probulous wrote:
@Sheth, I hope that wasn't too bad! I know some of my arguments weren't exactly rational but I had to get you lynched.
Maybe chat after the game. Thanks for playing! Hmmmm... why would someone push so hard to get a person lynched, even using irrational arguments? Because they are the DT. Come on Paperscraps, read the thread, not just filters. Thanks for clarifying/justifying your thinking here, this is your first solid point in an otherwise useless post.
For CatsnHats:
Gonz goes from (slight town) to (null) to (very-pro town) to (suspicious) to (scum). Very minimal reasoning for all of these assertions.
As for my change of opinion on Gonzaw, why is that not allowed? Did you check the time stamps on those posts? Slight-town: 7th Null: 9th Very-pro town: 9th (I had just checked his filter, and said he "played very pro town up to that point." That doesn't mean I am certain he is town. You even agreed he had because of the way he bussed Sheth. This is a town read in my eyes, but I'll leave it as very pro town for the sake of argument.) Suspicious: 11th Scum: 13th I was just stating the stance communication between gonzaw and you. I will let others take away from that what they wish.That is 2 days in between most of those posts. 2 days is ALOT of posts and opportunities to make reads, especially for someone like Gonzaw who hasn't made a glaring mistake to completely change town sentiment on him. The reason I kept changing was his relentless aggression and cursing in his defense of himself. It kept throwing me off. I think he is mafia now though, and if we lynch him and he flips red, it shouldn't matter that I thought he was town in the early game, when reads are so difficult to make. Alright this is your second solid point. Vote up gonzaw then.You are also getting on to me for my posting before the lynch and nightkill posts. You say they are filler. They may look like that now, but the hour before each of those events was a flurry of posting. If you think I'm scum because I posted a lot during the most stressful period of the game to date, then so be it. This is a pretty blatant admission to being scum. Thanks for making so clear now. Stress cause people to do weird things. Like post rapidly perhaps or out of character. Show nested quote +On January 14 2012 02:19 CatsnHats wrote:On January 13 2012 17:12 bkrow wrote:
I.e. if Paper flips red then we can assume Cats and Gonz are likely green and Ceph is the remaining scum;
If he flips green.. we lose? lol
The issue i have is that one of the above players could have just bussed a mafia buddy to throw us all off; but i doubt that much effort would have beeen put into an analytical post which has the chance of convincing the town on a lynch.
Well.. thoughts? Why does Paper flipping red mean Gonz is green and Ceph is red? You said in the post before it that Ceph is a townie. I think Paper is bussing Gonz to save himself the next day and vice versa. Just note Cats is using the same argument here against me and that I accuse him of. OMGUS He doesn't provide any analysis to back it up. My responses are bolded. Don't give up the pressure on Cats town! He hasn't provided any analysis. He said he would make a post about gonzaw, where is it? We have him grasping at straws. @ bkrow: I am also curious about your reasoning, that if I flipped red that would make Cephiro scum? please clarify this. @ Cephiro: Looking forward to your actual analysis. Not like this mostly filler post by Cats.
This last part of his argument is my favorite. I ask bkrow why Paper flipping red means Gonz is green and Ceph is red, because I think they (Paper and Gonz) are bussing against one another to gain town cred. Paper tries to shoot holes in my question with some BS about OMGUS, and then three lines down........ he asks bkrow the same question I did. LOL
And Gonzaw doesn't require a full written out argument with an image macro and multiple quotes to convince people he's mafia. Just look at basically any post he has made since Sheth was lynched. He's overly defensive, using cursing, rhetorical questions, and anger to cover up for the fact that he has contributed NOTHING except for beginning the bus for Blurry, our medic. I'm sure he'll quote this paragraph and answer with something along the lines of, " OH YOU'RE SO FUCKING RIGHT CATS /sarcasm" He's scum, plain and simple.
This is why Paperscraps is dangerous. He writes blatantly wrong things, and since he doesn't act like Gonzaw, he might actually put doubt in your heads as to whether I'm town or scum. He needs to be put down.
##Vote: Paperscraps
How's that for being passive?
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On January 14 2012 19:57 Paperscraps wrote:
I've also been pondering some things.
@CatsnHats:
Question: Does it strike you as odd that Cephiro voted you up instead of gonzaw?
Cephiro and gonzaw are still a possibility for mafia, even though it is slim.
@Cephiro:
I think you are town. However you can't be 100% certain that I am town and I can't be 100% certain you are either. Just making sure we cover all possibilities.
I am very interested in your take on gonzaw.
Question: Would you be willing to lynch gonzaw instead of CatsnHats?
In the off-chance you are mafia, you are very devious haha. I can't find anything in your filter to suggest you are scum though.
No, it doesn't surprise me. He's been convinced I'm mafia from day one, and he can't let it go. All the early game has clouded his judgement. I already said I can't defend my early play because I know how it looks. I admitted to wishy washy ness and bandwagoning because I didn't know how to play yet and I didn't want to die. There is so much evidence against me as mafia that it's hilarious. No person who was actually scum would play that bad, especially since they have a QT to communicate and help each other. That explanation takes care of the first half of his 3 page analysis against me. The other half is him mocking me and coming up with WIFOM reasons behind my posts. I'll answer those later.
I guess it's possible that Cephiro and Gonzaw are the mafia, that would be the case if you were town. I'm almost positive Gonzaw is mafia, that leaves you and Cephiro, the two players that are way more dangerous than him, for the one other mafia spot. The reason I still think Ceph could still be town is... well, why wouldn't a townie make a case against me? It's easy to do and the evidence is pretty overwhelming. And he did help with Sheth and has played consistently since D1.
Looks like its between Gonzaw and me. I guess it doesn't really matter if I get lynched D4 or D5, the town loses the game either way.
##Unvote: Paperscraps
##Vote: Gonzaw
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On January 15 2012 02:37 Paperscraps wrote:
EBWOP: I am taking a risk here, by giving you this little pep-talk Cats. It could make me look bad in Ceph's and bkrow's eyes. I am willing to risk it though if you can prove to me that Ceph is mafia, with analysis.
No one can be completely trusted here at the end.
Ceph has claimed to be great at mind games and could have been letting us duke it out and side with the player who made the better case against the other, which I think is me of course. Essentially letting town kill itself. Overall I think this very unlikely, but I would like to cover all bases.
Oh you're taking SUCH a big risk here, Paperscraps. Giving a pep-talk to the targeted townie, only another townie would do that, right? Please.
I don't think Ceph is mafia. I think you and Gonzaw are mafia. That is what I've said since Blurry was lynched (I was on you even before that) and I'm sticking to it. Cephiro called out Sheth, leading Probulous to rolecheck him. That's why we lynched Sheth. Mafia wouldn't call out a teammate so early with the existence of a DT unknown. He has pressured me on my very scummy looking play. He found Blurry's medic breadcrumbs. He has played consistently from the beginning. He gained the trust of Probulous. For all these reasons, I think Cephiro is town. I don't have to write an analysis for you on why I think he is mafia when I don't think that's the case.
Why does me switching my vote to Gonzaw from you make me look bad? Both of you are my scum reads. It doesn't matter about the order. I've said that before. I do think you are more dangerous than Gonz, but if it's between me and him for lynch, you better believe I'm going to vote him over you.
After Cephiro posts his analysis on Gonzaw I'm sure you'll agree with it and change your vote if he changes his.
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On January 13 2012 17:09 bkrow wrote:
As explained earlier this is all happening at a pretty poor time; any day during this week would have been perfect but this weekend is going to be hectic.
Basically, my thoughts come down to this. We have the following list
Paperscraps
CatsnHats
Cephiro
Gonzaw
From that above list 2 are scum and 2 are town. There was a considerable case mounted against Paper prior to Blurry's fuck up and i believe he most likely would have been lynched if not for the worst role claim in history. I have not forgotten about that, nor do i believe that it would be the wrong choice to lynch Paper.
However, both Jitsu and Prob have suggested Gonz as a viable lynch target. His general posting attitude and demeanour is not very town like as it is very aggressive. The consolation is that this brings a lot of attention to his posts which is not ideal if he was mafia.
Paper launched an offensive against Gonz; so if he is scum, it is likely that Gonz is not scum
Cats launched an attack against Paper; so same logic as above
I read through Ceph's filter and i honestly think the kid is a townie based on his posts; so now this just puts me in a position of Paper and Cats being scum, which i don't think is likely based on the above.
I think lynching Paper is our best bet at the moment - the lynch on Blurry REALLY fucked us up; lynching Paper gives us a lot of useful information on Gonz and Cats.
Please stick with this bkrow. Lynching Paperscraps today is the only way I can see the town winning the game. It's safe to assume you'll be nightkilled because you are the only confirmed town. Lynching Paperscraps tonight would leave Gonzaw, Cephiro, and myself. I can defend myself in that situation because Cephiro thinks Gonzaw is also mafia. If we lynch me tonight, it's game over. If we lynch gonzaw, Cephiro and Paperscraps will blindly lynch me (I wouldn't be able to defend myself, they ,especially Ceph, wouldn't listen) on D5. Lynching Paperscraps is the only way we can win. Paper flipping red would make Cephiro open his mind at least a little, otherwise it's over. I know this is a risk, bkrow. But remember Probulous's trust in me being town and how close we were to lynching Paperscraps on D3.
Changing my vote again since this is the only way we can win.
##Unvote: gonzaw
##Vote: Paperscraps
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EBWOP: I know this is putting a lot of pressure on you bkrow. If you have any questions I'd be happy to answer them.
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EBWOP: I know Cephiro and Paperscraps are going to ream me for switching again. But forcing this 2v2 with bkrow deciding is better than prolonging the inevitable of my lynch and a town loss by lynching gonzaw first. It's better to either lynch Paperscraps or me today because:
1. Lynching Paperscraps makes D5 reads much easier for everyone.
2. Lynching me ends the game and doesn't drag out the inevitable. (Paper isn't going to change his mind about me because he's mafia, and Ceph won't unless it's a choice between me and Gonz in the end.)
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There is nothing to post, Cephiro. It's up to bkrow to break the tie and decide who to lynch. If he doesn't vote, we (the town) lose. I hope he votes. I would rather lose because he voted for me rather than lose because he didn't vote at all.
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EPT
