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On January 09 2012 12:49 bkrow wrote:
To be honest, considering those posts i don't see the case against Blurry more convincing than the case against Gretorp (now replaced by Paperscraps) - either Gretorp is very busy or very bad at being scum. Neither of those 2 situations are beneficial for town; but he is the first one that really grabbed my attention as inactive and intentionally dodging questions. He even promised analysis and.. well yeah..
I would love to hear from Paperscraps after he has caught up on the thread
Sounds alot like the guy you replaced, AnxiousHippo....
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Probulous I agree Xeris>Gretorp in terms of scumminess out of the lurkers. I've stated my suspicion of Blurry a couple of times too, he hasn't been helping himself lately. If I had to pick 3 for the 2 spots remaining it would be Blurry, AH/Bkrow, and Xeris. I'll give Bkrow some time to prove himself though. Also, Gonzaw is null for me right now. The way he placeholder voted Sheth (even if he was mafia) didn't sit well with me. I need to recheck the filter to confirm.
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Alright I rechecked Gonz's filter. Other than the bullshit back and forth between him and Tunkeg (poor tunk  ), he's played very pro-town up to this point. He's really been on Blurry and Xeris, which I obviously like. And sure he ghosted your Sheth read, but I've been much more guilty of that offence so I can't hold it against him.
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Yeah I think Sheth new he could take me down with him I've screwed myself over so bad with my wishy-washy save myself play. Smart play on his part.
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EBWOP: oops knew* and add "since" after him.
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On January 10 2012 02:50 blubbdavid wrote:
God, reading Mafia makes me paranoid.
You're not in this game, are you?
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@Jitsu If I had flipped to vote Sheth you all would have just called me out for bandwaggoning again, so I decided to stick to my decision, even though I was in the minority. Obviously I was wrong about Sheth, but I switched from Gretorp to CM/AKCT last time and you called me out for bandwaggoning. Really though that's a situation where I'm fucked either way. If I change my vote, I must be mafia bandwaggoning. If I don't (like I did), I must be mafia defending a scumbuddy. I don't see how you can get a read on me from that.
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On January 09 2012 05:37 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Before I go to watch the game (steelers v broncos) I'll put my vote down where I think it can do some good. As again a no-lynch is a bad option, I'll understand if you lynch me as opposted to no one, but please this is just going to tell you I'm town and force you to look harder at Probulous and those who bandwagoned me for no reason or bad reasons, which I think you can already do now. I would much rather see Blurry or Cats lynched today (Cephiro if I thought I could get him possibly, and Gonzaw I havn't done a full read so I don't feel ok lynching him yet).
Having re-read Jitsu's filter and Cats' filter a couple of times, I feel confident that Cats actually has been getting help from his mafia brethren on a few posts and that he actually is scum. I think he is our best bet at getting a mafia tonight, and when he flips red we'll have much more information to go on.
##Vote: Catsnhats
This is kinda getting into WIFOM territory, but do you really think Sheth would say this if I was actually his scumbuddy?
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Alright well I just thought I would mention it. Clearly everybody have their minds made up. Nothing I can do can change your opinions of me at this point. I'll keep posting until I'm lynched on D3 though (kinda waiting on the new people to post). That way when I flip green, you can first laugh at how bad of a town I was (don't worry, I've been laughing too  ), and then you can look through my filter for some reads.
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On January 10 2012 08:58 Probulous wrote:ooh day post coming up  Will I live or will I die? If I'm here, Bk, I am watching you. Paper and Kron you guys really need to contribute something, Blurry too. Here's to hoping!
Prob I really hope you make it to morning, otherwise we're going to be in a rough place since you're the most active poster.
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GG Jitsu. You were a great townie.
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On January 10 2012 10:04 Probulous wrote:
Anyone roleblocked?
Is this the proper time to announce it? I wasn't, but I've already said I don't have a role. I'm starting to think the mafia is afraid that we have a medic though. That's why they went for Tunk and Jitsu and not you Prob, for fear of the medic saving you (our "leader" of sorts).
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@Blurry I have to admit that shit was hilarious, you picked one of my favorite "CatsnHats" pictures. But you literally add NOTHING new, and much off that is old material. The rest of the town has been on my case the whole game, why would you post that? It's blatant sheeping. You're just trying to make yourself look good to the town by picking the easiest target. I'm convinced your scum. This will be interpreted as OMGUS but I don't care, I voted for you last time until Sheth asked me to switch (hindsight is 20/20 but I really thought he was town you guys).
##Vote: Blurry
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On January 10 2012 13:27 Probulous wrote:
Honestly Cats, if you flip town you will have learnt the most important thing about mafia. You have to take positions based on cases and stick by them. Even if you are wrong and look like an idiot that is much better than being a flake. To be fair Blurry has gotten away with it because you looked worse. He will be getting a thorough examination.
Your play has gotten better over time but unfortunately too late. No hard feelings I hope.
Nope, no hard feelings (except for this quote of yours: "He only voted for Sheth after Sheth told him to and has been all round terrible. His "leaving" post caused confusion and he claims it was a gambit. In general he has been nuisance to town so I would not be sad to see him leave." That kinda hurt .). When I do play again (which will be a while since I have college starting back Wednesday), I will play it SO much because of all that I have learned.
That being said, I'm not giving up yet. I'll push for Blurry until I'm lynched, and if I am, hopefully you'll go after him next.
Also, I only voted for Sheth after he told me to because I thought he was TOWN and he was only doing it because a mislynch is better than a no-lynch for the town. I don't see how that is hard to understand.
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EBWOP: Also, I stuck to Sheth being town and now I look like an idiot.
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Sometimes I feel like we are. People can say I'm terrible, but I least I've been active. I'm probably the 2nd most prolific poster now. And yeah my gambit was really bad. I was such a newb though. I thought that was an original/novel play, it didn't even occur to me that others have probably tried that before and were hated for it. Oh well, lesson learned.
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On January 10 2012 15:41 Probulous wrote:
Cats, you confuse me, so how about a deal? I will keep my position open on your alignment if you give me a thorough case on why I should vote for Blurry over you.
The others seem pretty happy lynching you, which bothers me. This wagon is a little too easy to get going. Whether that is because your mafia brethren have given up on you or because you are town, is hard to say. Convince me.
In particular, look at my reasons for thinking Blurry is town and poke holes in it. I want people to tear my analysis apart, right now the rest of the town seem content to just accept stuff that is well formatted. You will go a long way to redeeming yourself in my eyes if you can do that for me.
I will try my best to read your case without bias, however if you are going to get this town to vote with you it will need to write a convincing case. Blurry hasn't done himself any favours so it should be a fair fight.
Show me what you got!
Probulous you probably weren't expecting this, but I'm about to change up my read. The more I read Blurry's thread, and I've read through it multiple times now, the more I think he is just a lurker newb not sure how to contribute. Even when he sheeped against me so hard recently, he admitted that he was doing it immediately. He was the 2nd person to vote for Sheth (and he had a surprisingly good read on him for posting so little). And the WIFOM posts I called him out on earlier make more sense in light of the fact that he says he has been using his gut alot since he feels his analysis isn't up to par. Your gut is the only way to make a decision about a WIFOM situation. I feel like I can read newb play, being that I was/still am one, and Blurry definitely strikes me as a lurker newb town now. Thats being said, he still needs to post more.
All of this reading wasn't in vain, because after perusing through filters I found a different target.
Paperscraps: Being a Replacement Doesn't Make You Innocent
![[image loading]](http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51Pp9Bilr1L._SL500_AA300_.jpg)
A replacement for Gretorp, Paperscraps wasn't done any favors by having a terrible predecessor. Gretorp was a shady, shady player, drawing the suspicions of everyone despite having a small number of posts. Tunkeg the night killed townie called out Gretorp for lurking and responded with this:
On January 05 2012 01:13 Gretorp wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 23:40 Tunkeg wrote:
Looks like the only one I will get to discuss with is me, myself and I.
For Gretorp and Xeris please post before I give you both (imaginary) NASaL fractures... I am no lynch all lurkers fAnatic, but for now I will be more then happy voting for anyone of you unless you start contributing. So tag, gretorp you're it:
##Vote Gretorp Tuneg, It doesnt make sense to vote me. If you have watched any NASL or seen me play mafia, you know i'm genius level but inexperienced with mafia. ALL times i've been in tl mafia, i've been a townie so my ability play townie is better than mafia. If you take my genius brain and then apply the situations, the EV for me in general is positive to the point where you dont want to vote me. But you probably know this, hence you want to kick me off because youre a mafia. SO I VOTE YOU, AND YOUR COUNTRY. #VOTE TUNEG
What is this other than OMGUS and an attempt to confuse the town? A very shitty move for a townie to make. After being pressured on this ridiculous post, Gretorp responds:
On January 05 2012 03:20 Gretorp wrote:
haha aws just kidding with the post but I will definitely once I analyze more ;-)
In other words, "LOL jk guys if I promise to make reads will you stop pressuring me?"
On January 05 2012 07:36 Gretorp wrote:
cephiro, why are you trying to create outlandish narratives to make a decisive choice? You aren't' leaving much range for people to be townie. so interesting! :-)
On January 05 2012 12:08 Gretorp wrote:
I work for most of the day and this goes pretty fast while I do a lot of projects for NASL. That being said, I want to know how many people actually believe this knowing that assumption. And I'm assuming people are thinking that i have as much time as them, hence I'm interested if you change your position based on activity.
On January 05 2012 12:09 Gretorp wrote:
And i will be doing a huge post otnight most likely just got to get caught up since it grew a lot
These are Gretorp's last 3 posts. Post #1 is an attempt to put pressure on someone else. Post #2 is an attempt to make an excuse to relieve the pressure on himself. And Post #3 is an attempt to make a promise to relieve the pressure on himself. And then poof, he was gone. This reads really scummy to me.
Enter Paperscraps. Here's his first post.
On January 09 2012 14:44 Paperscraps wrote:Hey Everybody, Glad to be here. I have been "semi" keeping up with the thread, but I will need to read through the filters to get a better read on people. I definitely plan on being more active than my predecessor. I seem to be leaning a bit toward scum on blurry and xeris (kronhjort). I can't stay up too late tonight due to school in the morning. I plan on providing some analysis and reads tomorrow.
Much better than Gretorp, but that isn't saying much. His reads are pretty interesting though. He picks Xeris, a bigger lurker than Gretorp, and Blurry, a player already under an eye of scrutiny. This is an easy thing to do. And he doesn't give any reasoning for his picks. Sheeping/ghosing, call it what you will. It definitely isn't original though.
On January 10 2012 09:39 Paperscraps wrote:Hey all, just got home from school. Ok onto reads and analysis. Blurry Scum 1. + Show Spoiler +On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote:On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. Terrible post, Gonz is right this tells us nothing at all. However you at least posted your thoughts on Sheth (Cats I'm looking at you). So to make it easy Blurry, would you vote to lynch Sheth? If not why not? Yes I would, and will. #Vote: Liquid'Sheth As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it. Either Blurry is trying to bus his mafia buddy, to alleviate further pressure from himself or has great gut instincts. I am leaning more toward the former, but he did make somewhat of a case about Sheth just pressuring and not weeding out scum. Read through his filter, something just doesn't feel right about him. I am interested in what his response will be. Xeris (Kron) Null Not much to say about Xeris (Kron) atm. Better to focus attention on other more active players until the need arises. Lurking is tricky and Kron might just be following the role already laid out before him, but that will only last for so long. I honestly think both players are/were inactive and not playing the game at all. If anything though is leads to a slightly scummy read. Note: I guess the same case could be made about me, but I hope to post more frequently and provide real analysis and reads. I am new to Mafia via forums though, so I will have to find the groove here. CatsNHats Town Either inexperienced town or smart scum. In his first post he said he never played before, so that leads to believe he is just an inexperienced townie. No real reason to lie on your first post, unless you just want to troll the whole game, but I guess I would want to see the good in people not the bad. He has posted a bunch of wishy-washy banter and defeatist attitude. Again either noob town or smart scum. Still leaning more towards noob Jitsu, Probulous and Cephiro Town. It will be interesting to see who the mafia kills, I think after tonight we will be able to get a better read on the mafia.
Next post. Blurry stays scum. Xeris changes to null (probably because he's caught up with everyone's opinion Xeris by now), and I am town. Keep this in mind. He also posts the 3 clearest town reads as his own. Nothing original. When Probulous questions him on his reads, Paper agrees and changes his mind about me, claiming he will re-read my filter. Xeris is also off his radar completely. Most interesting however is the fact that he sticks to his case that Blurry is scummy.
Paper claims that:
"Blurry doesn't agree to vote up Sheth until you ask him if he will. All his posts previous to that have no read on Sheth or say he he may be slightly town. I guess you are right that it is stupid to jump from Cats to Sheth, but you, one of the best readers in this game, think he is town now. Maybe that is what he wanted to happen. I still think he is scummy."
Blurry acutally did post analysis on Sheth. Even though it was scant, it was correct, and he was the only one up to that point other than Prob to question Sheth. Paper, as scum, knows that Blurry is town, so he's neglecting facts to cast a shadow on a suspected player.
On January 10 2012 10:39 Paperscraps wrote:
Re-reading the filter of Cats and Jitsu. Jitsu being confirmed townie leads me to Cats being scum. Cats wishy-washy garbage and acting with Sheth saved him for one more day, but Jitsu's death has saved the town I think.
I am still leaning toward scum on Blurry as well.
We should deal with Cats first though and do Jitsu some justice.
Paperscraps then busses Jitsu, using his death during N2 as evidence for Jitsu being correct about me being scum. This is sheeping against the most suspected townie. Paperscraps next two posts are further sheeping of Jitsu's analysis of me. There is no reason to quote them, they are one-liners and are easy to find on his small filter.
With my new opinion that Blurry is town, I think Paperscraps is scum sheeping against the two questioned townies, me and Blurry.
Because of all of this reasoning above:
##Unvote: Blurry
##Vote: Paperscraps
I look forward to your response Paperscraps.
And at this point I think Xeris/Kronhjort is going to get mod-killed, and if he flips blue/green, I will be PISSED.
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On January 11 2012 07:01 Probulous wrote: Much better  This in particular stood out to me "Jitsu's death has saved the town I think". There is no way that town is better off with Jitsu dead. Ironically his initial position that you were town gave him more credibility in my eyes which is why I asked him to explain it, he then changes his mind and with the flimsiest of reasoning. Who do you think is the other mafia?
Thanks Prob. And that is a really hard question. I wouldn't be surprised when Xeris/Kronhjort gets mod-killed if he flips red. But that is just wishful thinking because there really isn't any info to go on for him/them. AnxiousHippo's play was suspicious but bkrow has played much much better. That leaves Cephiro, Gonzaw, and Blurry (you and I are town). I'd say the 3rd mafia is between Cephiro, Xeris/Krohnjort, and Gonzaw. Hopefully it's Xeris and we can win this game in one more day!!!
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@Cephiro I included Gretorp in my analysis of Paperscraps because they are the same person. I would be remiss to leave out my opinion on Gretorp and just analyze Paperscraps, that would just be throwing away half of the available information we have on him/them. What are the things that you mentioned you did? Have you already analyzed Paperscraps? If so I missed it and apologize for that. Can you requote it to me? Also, you say Prob asked for my case on Blurry and that I didn't write it. But I did, it's at the top of my post on Paperscraps. I came up with the same conclusion that Prob did about Blurry (town for now), but with separate analysis from him. I've been taking Prob for granted up to an extent, but remember I did ask the town if we were following him too blindly. I have an overwhelming gut feeling that Prob is town. With the sheer amount of posting he done (like 8 of the 36 pages), he is either a really good town or the most ballsy scum ever. I think it's the former.
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EPT
