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On December 12 2011 10:48 Zephirdd wrote:
unless mafia decided it's a good idea to kill itself in order to achieve credibility, and that's why you can't trust votes in order to claim credibility; what's your point?
My point is that based on the current situation in this game I can't see mafia allowing a double lynch. If all of the viable lynch candidates were mafia there would a false case made to introduce a new candidate.
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annul: Suppose that you survive this lynch today and you had to pick a candidate to pursue tomorrow. Who would that be and why?
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No, I mean, if you were going to pick a candidate right now to pursue tomorrow with no other information than what has already been revealed in this game. Who would it be and why?
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On December 12 2011 11:03 Mattchew wrote:
redFF, VE and Kingjames you better have damn good reasons for not voting annul right now.
Mattchew: What is your stance on redFF?
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On December 12 2011 11:48 Lanaia wrote:Show nested quote +On December 12 2011 11:41 Mattchew wrote:On December 12 2011 11:38 Lanaia wrote:On December 12 2011 11:03 Mattchew wrote:
redFF, VE and Kingjames you better have damn good reasons for not voting annul right now. If they don't think he's scum, why should they vote him? I'd say it's a pretty damn good reason to NOT vote him. Mattchew, do you think annul is scum? It feels like the only reason you think he's scum is because he claimed to be hit n1, which has been confirmed. That's literally the only reason I see in your filter for you yelling about annul being scum. How do you feel about the medic who claimed protecting annul? I haven't seen you mention that so I'm curious. Does it change your opinion You only voted annul because you didn't think red would be lynched. As soon as it looked like it, you switched. Why? Why not just be on the person you think is most scum the whole time? I'd really like to know that. I think I'm starting to agree with annul in regards to drazerk, though. I know LaL isn't always the best, but it's kind of always been something I agree with. Now that I look back on it, draz's claim was kind of insane. I think that annul is scummy and a leach on town. He takes a ton away from scum hunting and causes repetitive and circular conversation that leads to nowhere. He's literally 70% of the last 2 days of discussion. Lynching him and redFF would just lead us to work towards new scum. I have said for a while that redFF is scum to me. What if they were to both flip town? How would you feel, having advocated a double-lynch? WHY do you think annul is scummy? How do you FEEL about the medic claiming to have saved him? Is something wrong with someone being a huge part of the discussion? Would you prefer he lurks? You don't have that many fewer pages than he does. (I can't make that last statement grammatically sound :/) .... Why do you bother quoting someone only to say lol. How is THAT productive?
Well, he has been pretty vocal against redFF so I can understand his intent. My real question didn't come across correctly but it tied in with the discussion of double lynching. I'll ask again:
Mattchew: You have stated that you think that annul should be lynched as well as redFF. So is it your belief that they are both mafia?
Please explain your reasoning as to how mafia would allow the possibility for the only viable lynch candidates to be both on their side.
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Mattchew: think about this for a minute. There are 6 mafia members and 13 Town remaining.
Propose a reasonable mafia-oriented plan in which both annul and redFF are lynch candidates and there's relatively little talk about ANYONE else.
Wait, what? Don't we have another hour???
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I had the biggest chills just now when sandroba suggested that the deadline was a few minutes ago... WHEW!
Oh man... =(
Well, I'm going to make sure I don't miss the lynch deadline and cast my vote right now.
First, I don't buy the case against annul just yet. There are a few things left to consider and we'll learn more after Night 3.
Second, I don't believe that both redFF and annul are mafia as had been suggested previously.
Last, redFF has a poor track record this game of attacking players who end up flipping Town soon after. He's either a very unlucky Town or a poor scum player.
However, there are more than enough votes cast against redFF that it will be worthwhile to ensure his lynch. I'm not going to leave it at 10 votes just in case someone backs out at the last minute. I'm going to make it 11 and if he is red, then i'll be much harder for the mafia to save him.
##Vote: redFF
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Mattchew: Isn't it possible that they have split their votes 2 and 2 with the remaning votes from redFF and VisceraEyes?
Also, if you think that redFF is mafia, do you think that he's going to do what you want him to do, namely vote for your target?
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On December 12 2011 12:31 Lanaia wrote:Why do you have to be so much more eloquent than me? 
Maybe they have better a better curriculum than us in Brazil... =)
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Actions and events in TL Mafia XLVIII:
Day 1
18. Soap, Townie, apparently shot by vaderseven
24. Hier, Townie, lynched with 14 of 25 votes including an Anonymous vote
supersoft replaces StimilantE
vaderseven apparently shoots Soap
Palmar claims Floridian
vaderseven claims Jack
Palmar claims responsibility for Anonymous vote on Hier
Night 1
1. supersoft, Townie, killed
12. syllogism, Vigilante, killed
Drazerk claims Roleblock Immune Medic who is required to claim during Night 1
Day 2
2. prplhz, Townie, apparently shot by annul
No lynch
vaderseven claims JOAT
redFF claims to have been roleblocked
annul claims to have been shot
annul claims to have been saved by a medic
Erandorr claims to have been roleblocked
Drazerk claims to have protected vaderseven during Night 1
Palmar claims responsibility for the Anonymous vote on annul
annul clarifies claim about medic save
bumatlarge replaces Erandorr
annul claims JOAT
annul apparently shoots prplhz
annul claims he took no actions during Night 1
xsksc replaces Corrupt
Night 2
4. Radfield, Townie, killed
Day 3
25. redFF, Townie, lynched with 11 of 20 votes
Zephirdd claims Parity Cop
Refallen claims to have protected Drazerk during Night 1 and Palmar during Night 2
Refallen claims that he saved Palmar from a hit during Night 2
Palmar claims that he was hit during Night 2
Drazerk claims that he was visited during Night 2
Drazerk claims to have protected sandroba during Night 2
redFF claims to have been roleblocked during Night 2
Toadesstern claims to be a Medic and that he saved annul during Night 1
Drazerk claims to have been roleblocked during Night 2
Toadesstern claims to have protected vaderseven during Night 2
Drazerk attempts to explain his lie
Palmar's claimed actions and results as Floridian
Day 1: Votes for Hier - lynched and flipped Vanilla Town
Day 2: Votes for annul - No lynch
Day 3: I assume that he voted for annul but the Anonymous vote has not been officially claimed
Drazerk's claimed actions and results as Roleblock Immune Medic (FALSE)
Night 1: Protects vaderseven
Night 2: Protects sandroba - Roleblocked
vaderseven's claimed actions and results as Jack of All Trades
Day 1: Shoot Soap - Vanilla Town
Night 1: I assume that he did not take an action since it was claimed that he cannot use more than 1 action in a day/night cycle
Day 2: ???
Night 2: None
Day 3: ???
annul's claimed actions and results as Jack of All Trades
Day 1: None
Night 1: None
Day 2: annul shoots prplhz - Vanilla Town
Night 2: I assume that he did not take an action since it was claimed that he cannot use more than 1 action in a day/night cycle
Day 3: ???
Zephirdd's claimed actions and results as Parity Cop
Night 1: Check Palmar - No Result
Night 2: Check Radfield - Same
Refallen's claimed actions and results as Medic
Night 1: Protect drazerk
Night 2: Protect Palmar - Success
Toadesstern's claimed actions and results as Medic
Night 1: Protect annul - Success
Night 2: Protect vaderseven
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Refallen: What is the exact name of your role?
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Not long now until we see how well we did last night... It seems as though the mafia have been in control of our lynches. My suggestion is to start examining players who haven't been given a lot of attention.
These include:
- hyshes
- Risen
- Lenaia
- Jackal58
Good luck Town! =)
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So our choices right now are either annul or Drazerk?
I'm examining some of the players who haven't received a lot of attention this game.
hyshes
He has 35 total posts the ENTIRE game and 2 of those were made before the game started.
Also, look at all of his targets. They have all flipped Town. He goads players into voting for them and he has very flimsy reasons for his votes.
Finally, look at his voting record. He votes early and rarely changes his votes. Look at the players he voted for.
I believe we have found a mafia hyshes.
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On December 14 2011 07:35 annul wrote:
also lol at the hyshes filter
30 posts of "stop sheeping palmar and going after annul" to "yeah lets kill annul" to "nm mattchew is a good kill target"
He's definitely not the most vocal scum in the game, but based on his posts and voting record I would conclude that he must be mafia.
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Lanaia: Instead of just waiting until later to cast your vote against hyshes, why don't you do it now as a placeholder. Then if you find a compelling reason to change it, do so.
You say you don't want a nolynch but you want to vote for Mattchew? He has no votes on him right now.
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On December 14 2011 08:23 Drazerk wrote:
I'm a VT TruthBringer...
Drazerk: did you ever hear that heroes get people killed? If you were trying to get killed you shouldn't have claimed. Instead you should have been SO pro-town that mafia were forced to kill you.
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On December 14 2011 08:32 Lanaia wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2011 08:31 kingjames01 wrote:
Lanaia: Instead of just waiting until later to cast your vote against hyshes, why don't you do it now as a placeholder. Then if you find a compelling reason to change it, do so.
You say you don't want a nolynch but you want to vote for Mattchew? He has no votes on him right now.
He is the person I find scummiest. I've had him pegged as scum all goddamn. Aside from hyshes, who are your biggest scumreads, KJ?
Based on what you're doing now... you're one of them.
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Wow, so this is a really convoluted situation.
Either annul or vaderseven is mafia or they're both town and we're expected to choose between them.
The rational part of me wants to defer this choice until our next lynch cycle and go for the more obvious scum players first but then again, who are they? If we were to actually have one in front of us, would it change anything?
Have we given up on this game? Are we just holding our breaths until the lynch? Come on guys! Don't give up!
I'm going to keep my vote on hyshes for now since I honestly believe him to be mafia and then continue to monitor the thread for further developments.
Also:
by my count, there are 18 players remaining in the game. 6 of those 18 are mafia. If we mislynch now, we'll end up going into the night with 11 Town to 6 mafia. Since there are 2 claimed medics and apparently 2 roleblockers we can probably assume a scenario where mafia gets 2 more kills. We're essentially looking at a case where we enter Day 5, 9 to 6.
If annul is red, and we get the lynch, we'll go into Day 5 10 to 5 if they retain their 2 KP or 11 to 5 if they fall to 1 KP.
I'm nervous.
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EPT
