TL Mafia L - Page 4

Protactinium

Canada550 Posts

January 21 2012 21:26 GMT

#3374

On January 21 2012 17:33 Foolishness wrote:
Mafia list has to be something like:

Meapak, Munk-E, Bill Murray, evantrees, BrownBear, Kenpachi.

Substitute in glurio, Opz, EchelonTee, vaderseven, Slardar for the ones that flip town.

On January 21 2012 17:49 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Foolishness amend the list please. I strongly believe atm WBG has a high chance of flipping red.

I would place glurio higher on your list. I also believe that based on play, opz is far more likely to be red.

Disagree here.

I don't see why Meapak is a strong case yet. I'm sticking with

Bill Murray
OpZ
bumatlarge

Don't see wbg either. His play fits his town play more than mafia even if he is wrong a lot.

Then go on to inactives.

I don't think Kenpachi is red based on L's statements suggesting that Kurumi shot Ciryandor. I'm going to guess that L truly did think Kurumi would shoot Kenpachi, and thus didn't roleblock him that night, but it backfired (nobody else claimed the Ciryandor shot). L also was pushing Kenpachi strangely, so it doesn't fit strongly in my book.

evantrees feels town to me for his earlier response to my accusation. It feels pretty spontaneous and unplanned.

Everyone else is fair game.

Bill Murray dies tomorrow, and we vote for double lynch. OpZ and bumatlarge die the next day.

Protactinium

Canada550 Posts

January 24 2012 06:11 GMT

#4255

On January 24 2012 14:58 ~OpZ~ wrote:

Show nested quote +

3 meds, 2 dets, 4 vigs, 2 jacks, 2 vets, 6 masons.

18 blues....

Masons can't really count as blues unless its like, BC as mason.

By day 4, mafia were getting steamrolled in the thread but still had 6 members vs. 25 townies, with all the vigs either dead or had their shot used, which is pretty even with the usual 30 player game to start (with no extra KP for town). Basically, the game was close even though the first accusation of the game was on mafia, 7 mafia outed by day 3, and the top 3 players in the game all know each other is innocent.

If you just sacrifice some KP to stack Foolishness/me, its pretty much GG as town is left headless/off trying to do their own thing. Especially after I was unable to post at deadline the last day (you would have double stacked Foolishness, leaving me alive with a short list of 3/3 mafia and a red DT check on Munk-E), you still would have had a good chance if not for the 2 modkills. After BM is lynched, you just stack Foolishness and off the BGs + BC. My post is pretty much dead and buried, the only live DT can be perma-roleblocked, and everyone else is pretty far off on all counts. Unfortunately 2 modkills cut your KP, but it certainly wasn't a completely unwinnable scenario given how lopsided the play was.

Protactinium

Canada550 Posts

January 24 2012 06:13 GMT

#4257

Also, everyone who wanted to kill BC/Me/Foolishness after Day 2 -_-

Protactinium

Canada550 Posts

January 24 2012 06:31 GMT

#4273

People get too paranoid when there is a consensus among the big names. Games will almost never get to a point where a top mafia is able to manipulate the flow of the games if there is a consensus among the top players. Especially given that this is a no PM setup and that we all independently came to the same conclusions, it is highly unlikely that the power at the top is mafia motivated.

The mafia was unable to save their members despite the fact that there was a bunch of noise made by wrong-track townies advocating lynches on townies, which shows that mafia really didn't have the thread presence to save themselves. Coming to the conclusion that the lynch is being controlled by a mafia-infected triumvirate just doesn't make sense. More likely is that the mafia are just getting steamrolled.

As for people getting suspicious about the BM->sandroba switch, there's nothing suspicious there at all. Sandroba was not a new candidate, and a red flip is a red flip. Given the whole list of viable lynch targets, a safe red lynch is better than a potential misstep. Saying that lynching sandroba gives no information is just silly. None of the other proposed candidates (BM, supersoft, GGQ) would have given any more information had they flipped green, and BM flipping red doesn't really implicate anyone given his play style.

Statements like "a switch to sandroba isn't pro-town because he was going to be modkilled anyway" is really bad. If sandroba wasn't up for lynch, he would have just posted last minute and been fine. Which brings me to modkill policy. I notice hosts aren't consistent on ban list policy when a player is lynched when a modkill would occur. Sometimes there is a ban, sometimes there isn't, but in the future I think it should count as a ban, since otherwise it motivates mafia to lurk last minute with the idea that town is going to get scared and say "he's going to get modkilled anyway no need to lynch him".

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