TL Mafia XLII - Page 5

Mataza

Germany5364 Posts

June 23 2011 18:24 GMT

#1189

Btw

If I am right(and the scum know before I do), then everyone able to talk to me has a huge target strapped to their back also.

What is YOUR plan beyond killing me?
You have a townsaving plan?

The assumption that scum blue snipe like awesome and then switch into a 1:1 trade short before lylo is the most far fetched thing I ever heard. You are now of the opinion of Bloodyc0bbler. GZ.

Mataza

Germany5364 Posts

June 23 2011 18:34 GMT

#1192

On June 24 2011 03:22 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Occam's razor says that mafia just shot you and sandroba with no ulterior motives.

@RoL

If you're a vig announce your hit a couple minutes before the day post if possible
If you're scum, show up dead in the day post, or shoot one of your team mates, please. :p

This is the first time that anyone ever argues it may be coincidence.

Now this can´t explain the bluesnipe quote. If there is anything one thesis cannot cover you are allowed to go one level higher on complexity.

Mataza

Germany5364 Posts

June 23 2011 18:40 GMT

#1195

First 2 days, 6 people were killed by scum, 3 of which were blue.

3/6 is a 50% hitrate for blues, which is quite a good quota I imagine.
Sorry, in german quota is written quote. I could also say hitrate.

Mataza

Germany5364 Posts

June 23 2011 19:31 GMT

#1198

Do you know what also is a decent possibility?
That you are scum trying to paint me red so we waste our town roles by killing me, which would cause the town to kill RoL tomorrow and BC to not die at all.

This is possible Viscera, you can´t deny that. No action does paint anyone in any alignment.
If a Veteran surviving a nighthit is not a proof, then talking is out of question as proof of alignment.

Of course you know your alignment and I know that you tend to have paranoid phases.
In PTP it was possible that BC was scum for getting you lynched , that´s why you killed him. You can´t paint every possibility on the wall and pick the one you fear the most and say it must be true.

Mataza

Germany5364 Posts

June 23 2011 20:28 GMT

#1204

Mr. Wiggles, to actually argue against coincidence:

We know Sandroba was townsided.

There are 2 possibilities:

I am town and have no reason to lie(GGQ noted I could fake the damning piece of evidence against RoL, but I didn´t)
I am scum. This would open a lot of questions, like "Why even attack RoL, he was useless?", "Why stop sniping blues and kill only Sandroba?", so I think we can agree that it is rather unlikely.

Assuming I am town and did not lie about my plan against RoL.
There 2 possibilities for how the outcome of the night happened:

My plan(I wrote this so often you should know it by now). If the bluetell worked and RoL is scum it has around a 99.9% of happening.
It just happened. Now this would mean that a 0,7% likely event happened. You can increase this chance to 8-9% if you can give any reason for shooting one of us.

Now, assuming Sandroba didn´t lie to me, I am not lying(because townies generally don´t have a reason to lie) and that RoL is innocent, then there must be some reason visible in the thread.
If scum actually hit me and Sandroba for shits and giggles, then they probably didn´t even talk yesterday because there was no reason to talk.

Mataza

Germany5364 Posts

June 23 2011 20:30 GMT

#1205

On June 24 2011 04:44 VisceraEyes wrote:
Note, I didn't say "PROVE my statement" I said "PROVE the credibility of my statement".

You just keep digging yourself into a hole, Mataza. And GGQ, the fact that you're only questioning and responding to me leads me to believe that you're defending Mataza and it WILL be reflected on your permanent record.

Yes, because Node defended me and is scum it means that GGQ defending me is scum too.

We are truly lucky that BC did defend RoL yesterday because they are probably both vigilantes.

Mataza

Germany5364 Posts

June 23 2011 20:37 GMT

#1206

A hole i am digging myself in?
Look back at what you assume to be possible. Realise it is possible but like the most unlikey thing ever.
Look back at me. I am hunting the most likely explanation.
Now look back to your possibility.
Now back to my theory.

The hole I am digging is now the trench of my fortress of reasons why the stuff happening in this game is actually happening.

Please start thinking in Cause-and-Effect ways of thinking. Stuff doesn´t happen for shits and giggles.

Mataza

Germany5364 Posts

June 23 2011 21:01 GMT

#1208

I had math when I first wrote that, I can remath it again.

The night this occured we were 19 players, including Hiro.
I forgot to include Hiro the last time, my fault.

So we were 19 players 6 of them scum. That means 13 town players who can be hit by the scum.

The chance for any of the 13 townies to be hit by one kp is 1/13, or 7.69 %
The chance for one of 12 townies to be hit is 1/12, or 8.33%

To be really simple about this, the chance that 2 specific players are hit is the combination of this:
0.0769 multiplied with 0.08333

The result of this simple math is 0.64%
Before I used 1/12 and 1/11 which made the chance appeared higher than it actually was.

Mataza

Germany5364 Posts

June 23 2011 21:09 GMT

#1209

To rephrase that:
The mathematical chance that Sandroba and I were both hit for no reason is very fucking low.

Btw, scum don´t only defend other scum players.
If I am scum, I defended Youngminii. Youngminii is innocent.
Node defended me. Node was scum.

Am I scum for that?
How about Youngminii? Would he be scum if he was not already dead, because I defended him?

You are being deluded by BC and RoL´s arguments from yesterday. They are not even arguing now. Guess why?
If you get me killed, people will blame you.
Not BC or whoever planted this idea in your head with their words.

Mataza

Germany5364 Posts

June 24 2011 02:01 GMT

#1225

On June 24 2011 05:30 Mataza wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

Yes, because Node defended me and is scum it means that GGQ defending me is scum too.

We are truly lucky that BC did defend RoL yesterday because they are probably both vigilantes.

Woohey, I am clairvoyant. BC is vig now too!
Any other vigs in this game? Man we have a lot of these guys in here.

This is hilarious.

Mataza

Germany5364 Posts

June 24 2011 02:14 GMT

#1228

I want to see how much we are fu**ed.
Get the Daypost out please.

Mataza

Germany5364 Posts

June 24 2011 02:24 GMT

#1233

Oh look, I am clairvoyant.

Fuck that, Varpulis was masoned to me and all. I already miss him. VisceraEyes is dead too.
I am all alone now.

Selling utter Horseshit as truth is a sign of being the Horse care taker it seems.

Mataza

Germany5364 Posts

June 24 2011 02:25 GMT

#1234

How the fuck did they kill all my masons! Stop that!
I need someone to talk to!

Mataza

Germany5364 Posts

June 24 2011 02:29 GMT

#1237

Oh wait I can still talk to the guy I assumed to be mafia first thing yesterday.....
Woopdefrickingdoo.

Does someone have a better idea than putting RebirthofLegend on trial for the third time?
I bet something is coming and making someone else get lynched again.

Mataza

Germany5364 Posts

June 24 2011 02:41 GMT

#1240

We may be friends again after I see the color of your blood.
It´s nothing personal, but so far I am only proven right by the events.

Mataza

Germany5364 Posts

June 24 2011 02:47 GMT

#1242

Hey guys, I just mathamized:

Every night is LYLO NIGHT! Rejoice!

Unless someone out there still has bullets, a firstaid-and-clairvoyance kit or is too hardcore to die from just 1 bullet.

Mason me. For great justice!

Mataza

Germany5364 Posts

June 24 2011 13:08 GMT

#1250

Ok, people I got this.
Give me a minute to write something up.

Mataza

Germany5364 Posts

June 24 2011 13:24 GMT

#1251

RoL is still masoned to me and is whispering into my ear constantly when we are both online.
He is telling me stuff. Evil stuff. But I most stand strong.

You see, I am the boy who survived. No one else ever survived being attacked. I am Harry Potter.
RebirthofLegend is the evil wizard that cannot be killed and that is tied to me until we both die. He is Voldemort.
This is now Harry Potter mafia.
And for that reason I feel that we cannot kill RoL until the last day, when it is 3-man lylo.

Now to find RoL´s horcrux thingies which must be destroyed in order for him to be destroyed I have devised a plan:

Jacinto, Fudgemonkey, Shraft, Landenc, Demorcerf and Sinani206, this is all about you 6.
Look back at last night, we tried to kill BC and RoL but we could only kill one.
Now look back here. It is fate that we can´t kill RoL yet.
Look back at the top of this page, where I posted that every is lylo night from now on.
Now look back here+ Show Spoiler +

This thread is now a Colosseum! [image loading]

You 6 are going to enter this colosseum and are to argue and discuss amongst each other for the good of the town, or in other words my entertainment and by extension RebirthofLegends entertainment.
But beware:
6 guys go in,
6 guys come out.
But only 1 will have won and will have 3 votes.

In around 20 hours the victor will be decided.

Let the games begin.

Mataza

Germany5364 Posts

June 24 2011 14:12 GMT

#1254

Yes, the boy who allegedly survived and allegedly called Bloodyc0bbler out yesterday.
Nothing much.
Now get out there and discuss with the others.

Mataza

Germany5364 Posts

June 24 2011 15:52 GMT

#1256

Ok, I will give you a couple of things to consider and or discuss:

Agreeing with everything I said will not mean you win the Colosseum.
You may address anyone in your discussion, living or dead, involved or uninvolved.
I will declare this first round the freestyle round. You may start with whatever inane or ingenious points you wish.
Later on I will probably announce round 2.
The winner gets cake!

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