EPTI'm just heading out to do something, I'll catch up on everything a bit later tonight.
Cheers!
TL Mafia XL
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Impervious
Canada4199 Posts
I'm just heading out to do something, I'll catch up on everything a bit later tonight. Cheers! | ||
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Impervious
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On June 07 2011 04:16 Jackal58 wrote: Impervious???? Bah. Obviouscum. I'll be keeping an eye on you. Scum. Btw - GREEN AND YELLOW!!!!! Ok, now, from what I've seen, I think Jackal's plan is best. I've seen a bunch of "newbie" posts, but that one seriously hinted at finding blues, as well as finding flaws in previously used investigative strategies. While it may be a "newbie" type post, it also answers a question I ask myself whenever I'm looking at someone - Are they acting in the best interest of the town? My gut feeling is "no", even though he has so few posts. And, rather than pick on lurkers for the sake of picking on lurkers (since they'll likely be modkilled at some point), I think our best move at the moment is to lynch rookie44. | ||
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On June 07 2011 08:39 rookie44 wrote: There is no more of a meaningful explaination i can give. I will be voting for gtrsrs, not due to an indepth analysis of his posts. But because he talks about town in the 3rd person, which is a very unnatural thing to do. Obviously an indepth analysis would be the best, however there is not much we can go on at this stage, and given that i think any tells will be a metagame failure. I quite like thinking about metagame, and (though obviously this will be biassed) looking at my posts i have been advacating thinking about the longer term when everyone else was discussing the right now. No blue or red would want to stick out like that. I am going to bed now so this is the last of it. (would a mafia give such a poor defence?!!?!?) I used 3rd person in my 2nd post in the thread. And my first post was a "hi" post..... What does that tell you about my alignment? That I'm scum? As for the metagame..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... We need to get the best possible lynch RIGHT NOW. Not 5 days from now. The sooner we hit a couple of reds, the better. So we have to do what we can to hit a red RIGHT NOW. Don't worry about the "metagame"..... It is a metaphysical construct which will not directly help in any individual game, as players can actually play against said "metagame". | ||
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On June 07 2011 08:51 Treadmill wrote: I absolutely don't buy the "hunting for blues" nonsense on rookie44. I don't see at all how what he's been saying could lead to blues revealing themselves - one of the people voting for him should lay out the case a bit better. Point by point: 1. Irrelevant. And battle.net mafia is EXTREMELY different from this. 2. No, he isn't asking people to post their roles. He's asking what people think good strategy for blues would be - which is a reasonable question from town and even more sensible for a blue poster. 3. Alternately, he's honestly a newbie asking experienced players what they think we should be doing. 4. Or, he's giving his reason, as a townie, for asking. The "analysis" is bullshit. This is bandwagonning at its WORST. If this was a day 2 or later lynch, I'd expect something more convincing. But it's not. If you have a better idea, I'd like to hear it. | ||
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On June 07 2011 09:27 Treadmill wrote: Almost anyone else would be a better idea. I'm just bothered that wll of a sudden a bunch of people (xkcd, Kurumi, Senj) are jumping on voting for a guy, a handful of hours before the lynch. Especially considering: Senj is a lurker who's posted the bare minimum to be considered active amazingxkcd who's posted a whole lot of nothing - his only contributions have been posting one-liners about why other people's ideas are bad Kurumi - who's been posting a lot, and insanely aggressively, and accusing everyone flat-out of being scum, but when he decides who to vote for he posts a chort and uncertain post wihtout really explaining. It just seems like the analysis is a lot worse on this case than it has been on a bunch of others - but a couple people started voting for him and set a bandwagon rolling. As for scummiest posts, I still haven't seen anything to top this: That reeks of inexperienced townie to me, not scum..... | ||
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On June 07 2011 09:35 Treadmill wrote: Another interesting point: Jackal58 makes his case against rookie44, it's pretty weak, the people posting aren't convinced. Nobody but him votes for rookie44. Then an hour later Look at the time stamps, within 3 minutes of each other. And none of them posted for 2 hours previous to bandwagonning rookie. It looks liek co-ordination. I didn't notice this. Nice catch. I'm re-thinking my position right now. Will post when I think it through. | ||
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Why? Because, it's likely that all 3 (or 2 of them) are mafia, based on the timing (and assuming that rookie is town and we have 2 or so vigis in the game). When that one flips, here's the outcomes: Scum - We get vigis to hit one or both of the others overnight. Early knockdown to 3KP for the mafia. Town - We get a vigi to hit rookie as an insurance policy for switching (although we can argue the merit of this move overnight, and should rookie turn out to be red, Treadmill would be a decent policy lynch tomorrow because of how hard he's been defending). So, if we're going to hit one of them, we need to pick the scummiest one, in case it's a freak accident that they all voted at the same time like that. And we've gotta do it quick (I'm gone in ~1 hr). Basically, if we switch - in the worst case scenario we give our vigis a good target tonight, and best case, we hit 2 or 3 mafia. Pretty damn good first lynch/night imo. Now, I asked myself "have they been acting in the best interest of the town?", and the one that really stood out as a "no" was xkcd, so I'd agree with a switch to him right now. So, I'm changing my vote. ##Vote: amazingxkcd | ||
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On June 07 2011 09:35 Treadmill wrote: Another interesting point: Jackal58 makes his case against rookie44, it's pretty weak, the people posting aren't convinced. Nobody but him votes for rookie44. Then an hour later Look at the time stamps, within 3 minutes of each other. And none of them posted for 2 hours previous to bandwagonning rookie. It looks liek co-ordination. I was in the middle of writing up something a little more in depth on why I chose xkcd, but my "1 hr" has turned into "5 minutes". I've switched my vote, and I hope some others do the same. It's not that I think rookie is a bad lynch, it's just that I think this lynch will give us more info, and if I'm wrong, we got rid of a really negative townie (which can end up derailing us in the later stages of the game). PS, if they all show up as town, as does Treadmill, then you guys HAVE to lynch me. Not doing so would be completely suicidal..... | ||
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Also, I'd like to voice my opinion of "using our KP early" due to the loss of our medics. While it sucks to lose both, some games don't have medics, or medics are bad/inactive/unlucky and are essentially no better than another townie, and the game is still far from over. It might suck for a vigi to die without using his power, but it's better he doesn't use it than he uses it badly. | ||
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On June 07 2011 21:36 35spike1 wrote: Everybody is bad during the first few days, we don't have enough content to get anything solid. Jackal is stll in the clear IMO. He just got unlucky, and everybody jumped on it. The weird thing is, why did everyone jump on it? I'm not sure. Early on, there was some momentum against freeloader, and that completely shifted from a single post. We may be able to look back at today's vote to nail some scum, or it could mean absolutely nothing at all. However, we won't know until after we nail some more scum, so there's no point in worrying about it too much right now. These types of swings don't have to be influenced by the mafia. | ||
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On June 07 2011 21:28 35spike1 wrote: It's combined, 72 hours in total for posting. I looked through Lafali's posts and none of them had any content/names... Are all the medics gone now or is there probably one left? I'd assume that we have none (although it's completely possible that we started with 4 medics). The reason for that is that we can't really have them stack saves anymore (assuming 1 or 2 live), so if the mafia want someone dead, it'll happen. We may get lucky and they end up saving someone still, but I wouldn't count on it. Obviously, if there are any DTs out there (in this setup, it's possible that there are none), do not roleclaim yet. You're going to have to assume that there's noone there to protect you. But leave us some clues based on what you find, so that we can find something in case you end up dying. | ||
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On June 08 2011 00:37 Xedat wrote: I want to remind everyone that it is night, don't post anything too critical or it will influence the mafia's hits. If you are concerned that you might die save your post for the last few minutes before day. Agreed. However, we should probably try to stir up some decision for any blues that are unsure of what to do. We've probably got 2+ DTs who have to check someone, and 2+ vigis who may be itching to hit scum tonight. And it's still possible that we have a medic. If we have a medic left, there's a few people I'd suggest saving. One would be myself (obviously :D), another would be treadmill, a third would be freeloader, and a fourth would be Jackal. Jackal has this uncanny ability to either be very, very right in his analysis, or very, very wrong in his analysis, so losing him wouldn't be great, as long as we can figure out if he's right or wrong. iGrok isn't a bad choice either. There's a few people who should be high priority vigi targets. amazingxkcd is definitely my #1 choice, but jimbooo wouldn't be a bad target either. senj or kurumi instead of xkcd wouldn't be a bad choice either. As for DT checks, I wouldn't recommend xkcd, senj and kurumi right now. If xkcd gets killed tonight (or one of the other two instead), we'll have 2 people as good lynch targets if he flips red, and it's hardly better than a blind guess if he flips green, so it's not really worth a check right now. Voting for the same person at the same time like that is really wierd, and I can't help but think that it's coordinated. My bad if I'm wrong, but it just looks soooooo bad..... So it would be a big waste of a DT check imo. As for who to actually check - I'm not too sure. There's quite a few good people to check, I just wanted to point out some obviously bad ones to check. So, if you want to argue any part this with me, or have anything to add, now's the time to do it. | ||
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Impervious
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Freeloader - there's definitely uncertainty here. But I have a reason for wanting him alive tomorrow. Jackal - He's really good at analysis when he's tunneled someone. He may not always be on the right track, but he brings up some good points, and is easily able to start discussions, which are good for the town. I don't know whether he's scum or not yet, but for now, he can definitely be useful to the town. He's one of the people I'd want to check as DT, to make sure he's on my side, but, if he is scum, he's likely the GF, so a DT check would actually be pretty useless anyways. | ||
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Also, if someone trying to draw attention away from a blue is scummy, then I think we've got different mindsets. I really didn't want to go into this much detail, because this may end up swaying the decision of the mafia. -_- | ||
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I'd like to know what guides/games you have read, as well as what games you have played. Just take like 10 seconds to post a quick list plz. If you've played in a few already, I know you're well exposed to TL Mafia. I'm asking for this information I want to get a feeling for how well adjusted our "newbie" players will be. I'm pretty sure that this may prove useful to us in the future. I wanted to ask it during the previous day, but I showed up pretty late for the party. | ||
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On June 08 2011 21:42 iGrok wrote: Haven't read it yet, but I'm going to go ahead and nominate Treadmill for the "Best Rookie (no pun intended) Award". Hats off to you, doing analysis like a boss, standing up for what you think, and making really good reads on people (like the aforementioned Rookie). Seconded. Holy crap man. I expected some good things from you, but this is definitely above and beyond. Whether right or wrong, that's one hell of an analysis. Ok, so, just in case some of you missed it, I'd like to quote myself. On June 08 2011 13:12 Impervious wrote: Ok, so, now that it's daytime, I'd like to ask everyone to do something simple for me, before we start discussing anything more serious. I'd like to know what guides/games you have read, as well as what games you have played. Just take like 10 seconds to post a quick list plz. If you've played in a few already, I know you're well exposed to TL Mafia. I'm asking for this information I want to get a feeling for how well adjusted our "newbie" players will be. I'm pretty sure that this may prove useful to us in the future. I wanted to ask it during the previous day, but I showed up pretty late for the party. And thanks to those of you who have answered already. | ||
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On June 09 2011 03:51 Kurumi wrote: EDWOP: I don't accuse Impervious of being scum,but that's kind of fishing. Mafia already has info advantage,don't give more info they don't need. Impervious,that's horrible idea to say everything about Yourself. We are dead sure there's at least one experienced player in Mafia team who'll look into people's meta and try to deduce if they bare the same role this game. I want to see if they're accustomed to the style of Mafia that TL plays. It's very different from the type you'll find on battle.net, which has become pretty common. Plus, I am kind of fishing with this data. I want to go back and see if there's some scumslips based on what people don't know. | ||
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I feel like there's a strong case vs iGrok, although I am less sure of it than I am of xkcd. I am a little surprised that no vigis took a shot last night. Our vigis may be inactive, or we may not even have any. Because I was sure the case for lynching xkcd was strong enough to warrant an early hit. w/e. I'm voting xkcd for now. | ||
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On June 10 2011 05:21 blackone wrote: I have nothing new to contribute to the accusations against amazingxkcd and I don't see the need for making a post with "hey guys, just so you know, gonna vote amazingxkcd now". That's a terrible mentality. Even if you have nothing new to contribute, at least post your thoughts and say why you're voting for him. In the long run, if everyone was to do that, it'll be much easier to determine who is scum. | ||
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What a night. | ||
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I'm going to try to help however I can, but I have a feeling that the next few days for me are going to be a little hectic. For those of you guys who have some time, I'd like to see discussions. Post by post analysis is great and all, but now that everyone should have 20+ posts, it's going to be unreasonable to do so, so now is the point where we need to start picking and choosing, and just ignoring anything that isn't relevant to any point you're making. Also, word of advice xkcd - don't act so scummy next time you get a blue role. I kept thinking "ok, I saw a couple of blue tells, but is that simply him trying to divert attention away from himself by faking a blue slip?" | ||
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a much better approach would have been to post "I AM THE TOWN'S DETECTIVE, DO NOT LYNCH ME, I'LL PROVE IT TONIGHT I may have had something to do with that. -_- | ||
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On June 11 2011 09:44 gtrsrs wrote: a much better approach would have been to post "I AM THE TOWN'S DETECTIVE, DO NOT LYNCH ME, I'LL PROVE IT TONIGHT I may have had something to do with that. -_- | ||
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I seriously didn't expect that we'd target both DTs on day 1 as main candidates, and then actually kill both of them by the end of the next day. -_- | ||
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You can ignore my previous ~5 posts. | ||
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Vigi. At least, that's what I was told. | ||
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xkcd because I was 95% sure he was scum, and pyo because I saw what I thought was a massive scumslip earlier in the thread (I can't remember exactly where it was) that would only apply to a rookie player. It's actually the main reason I asked people to let me know how experienced everyone was. I wanted something concrete to build an analysis around. Unfortunately I never got around to it. And, had I decided to shoot either of them, it would have failed anyways lol. Being blue is hard. -_- GG guys! | ||
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