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It's by exclusion DropBear, but I did some re-thinking. here's my updated list of scummyness.
Karshe Bombs Expert
GMarshal Cultist? Can recruit people to a circle and sacrifice them
redFF Interrogator
Amber[LighT] Doggie
Cthsazsa Crzzy Cat Lady (death vig)
Barundar
DropBear (PGO?)
stefftastiq ???
Rean Psychic (votecheck/alignment check)
Palmar Bro of Destiny
Almost everyone on this list has a reason for us to believe they're town. So all we can do is just start picking off people from the most likely to be scum and dangerous, to the least likely.
at current, but this might change during the night, my list would be something like this:
Karshe: Could've used the bombs better
GMarshal: sacrificed Kurumi, that's kinda it.
Cthsazsa: Claimed creating Wiggles's role, some pro-town behaviour
DropBear: not really done anything apart posting mass analysis (generally you gun for one person, instead of spreading confusion) and warning the town of his role
redFF: interrogator, consistently pro-town behavior, not much to absolve him though
stefftastiq: correctly given us all the leads from his clues, inactive, but probably pro-town
Amber: his role isn't dangerous, unless something happens, he's green in my eyes.
Rean: biggest contributor to town at the moment. I guess we'll see his allegiances once the top 4 from my list are dead
Palmar: Confirmed green. Likes to shoot cops though, cause y'know.... fuck the police.
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oh and I of course excluded barundar, cause I think there's no question he's the greenest bro in town atm.
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Oh, and I'm travelling from norway and back home to Iceland today, I will almost not be around at all today.
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I didn't get shot tonight.
I like the dropbear lynch, as he can never be cleared anyway. If he flips red, that's no clearance for anyone though.
We still need more information. GMarshal, do you have a new member in your cult now? Amber, quote the person you targeted and wiggle your tail.
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Rean, you seem to really like sticking GMarshal in as townie. Do you have a valid reason for this, or is this just based on his actions/posts?
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Well you guys better decide who I'm shooting before I shoot rean tonight, being the only DT role left.
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Some interesting points.
If rean is fucking with us, it's almost 100% chance that stefftastiq is the other scum, because he confirmed Rean's night action today, and it's results. This makes it very likely that Rean and Steff are both town.
Amber cannot frame anyone, we still need to know who you targeted tonight.
We also need to try to account for the mafia kill. For some reason the mafia KP did not land tonight, why?
I agree with lynching DropBear tonight, and will cast my vote thusly. I see no reason to doubt the Rean check, confirmed by Stefftastiq, and we should have a vast majority to check this list. Let's just start this by lynching DropBear.
##Vote DropBear
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amber: stefftastiq gets a random night action clue. today he got the clue that the psychic had found two mafia, which is the same result as rean (psychic) had already posted.
karshe, i am pretty sure amber has been helping town. i still want amber to wiggle his tail at the person he targeted last night.
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I find that a great argument for amber being town Rean.
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GM
Cause I like to hog all the KP's myself.
And because he is on Rean's list.
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And also because he killed me. I'm vengeful like that.
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On June 15 2011 04:17 GMarshal wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2011 04:12 Cthsazsa wrote:On June 15 2011 04:02 redFF wrote:On June 15 2011 03:47 Cthsazsa wrote:
Rean I'm just ignoring red for now. All he's done and been doing is calling people scum without a good reason and shouting 'IF WE DONT SHOOT THIS LIST WE LOSE". lol, circumstances have changed. I know you are mad I called you scum yesterday but there is no reason to not listen to me when what I am saying is correct. What reasons do we have not to believe this list? GM is trying to convince everyone it is inaccurate because he knows he is screwed if we just kill into this list and win the game.  Wait, why all of a sudden is GM scum? You never explained your reasoning. And "he's on both lists" doesn't count. Its because I want people to think, rather than depend on blues, stupid of me, I know, but hey, a man can hope, right?
Well, blues act as support to thinking.
We're trying to do exactly what you want us to do, but we're using the blues to give us guidelines on how to think. It's mad to only rely on blues, but it's also mad to simply ignore them, wouldn't you agree?
We have a list from Rean, that contains two mafia. There might be miller roles in this game, but that would've required the player who designed the role to create it as miller role, as there is no miller alignment. This doesn't rule out the possibility of a miller, but it certainly does reduce the chances of there being one.
Our work is definitely not done by just shooting everyone on the list. But we can use the list as a guideline on who we should be taking a look at, which is exactly what we're doing at the moment.
GMarshal
Palmar
Rean
DropBear
stefftastiq
Amber[LighT]
I would be much more skeptical if Stefftastiq hadn't confirmed Rean's night action through his whisper.
Now, we need to apply analysis to the people on the list... see what I'm talking about, there are two people on this list that are mafia, so we've narrowed down our focus with the help of blues. Now we need to get our hands dirty to try and find the scum.
I have already proven I'm completely useless at posting analysis, so I'll stick to action analysis. I hope someone can complement my conclusion with something on behavior.
GMarshal:
Got roleblocked by torte. He would have known how torte's roleblock worked. This makes it less likely GMarshal is mafia.
GMarshal led the switch to me over confirmed scum. This makes it more likely he is mafia.
Rean
Rean has provided us with reliable vote-lists. Until something happens that makes me believe he's scum, I'm going to have faith he is town. Especially the fact that stefftastiq confirmed him when he could easily have lied, makes me think he's town.
DropBear
All dropbear did early in the game was analysing 4 people at once, which is kinda silly because if you think you have scum, you should get the town to focus, not spread the votes out over several people you suspect.
DropBear did ask us not to visit him during night, and meapak seems to have fallen to that, but this is almost a must-explain even if he's mafia. He's my best bet for mafia on the list.
stefftastiq
Steff is very inactive, but he seems to always deliver his whispers reliably and they have helped us understand what is about to happen. There is a slight chance that both the gas cannister whisper and this rean psychic whisper were orchestrated, but it's just a big wifom argument.
I think Steff is town.
Amber[LighT]
Consistently pro-town actions it seems. Obviously people are not going to agree with me here because no one knows amber's role but me. But I don't see any reason to consider him mafia at the moment.
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On June 15 2011 04:26 GMarshal wrote:
Cths, you up for just lynching RedFF? I'm pretty sure that from his desperate behavior he is mafia, and we can just have palmar shoot DB tonight.
Or we can do it the other way around, I don't care ^_^
yeah, I'll shoot DB and die a horrible death.
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We'll see GMarshal
If DropBear flips green, I'm definitely shooting into the list. There are hardly two millers in the list.
At the moment, I feel I'm shooting you no matter what, you have a KP that I don't control, you have less green points in my book than anyone in the list aside from dropbear.
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Yes GMarshal, I think you're scum. But the thing is you're good at this game, I've read through PYPI and your posting almost didn't change at all when you turned mole, or not in a way I could've spotted the difference.
And don't get me wrong, I notice other things too. Amber and Rean were among the last people to switch to my lynch. What it comes down to is looking at the actions at hand. You see, there are tiny little things pointing in your direction. Most of the town probably wouldn't have cared if it was me or bum who got lynched, both were "confirmed" anti-town and useless. But you really made it your case that I should be the one dying.
I mean, your comments in that part were okay, there was logic and reason to them, but that's only what I'd expect of you, town or mafia.
But, even if I end up shooting you, you have 24 hours to win the game for us. Show us what you're made of, you're our best analyst. There is enough information on the board. Lead us to victory beyond your grave.
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By the way GMarshal
are you killing stefftastiq tonight?
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why did you introduce steff to the circle gm?
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PGO stands for paranoid gun owner, the role you claimed (IE: you kill anyone that visits you).
Also, you misunderstand me, killing you doesn't clear anyone pushing for your kill, but of course it reveals information. Rean's list has two mafia on it, so your flip actually gives information on that list. But I'm against lynching for information anyway, I want to lynch you because I think Rean is telling the truth and I think you're the scum.
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On June 15 2011 19:26 DropBear wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2011 18:30 Palmar wrote:
PGO stands for paranoid gun owner, the role you claimed (IE: you kill anyone that visits you).
Also, you misunderstand me, killing you doesn't clear anyone pushing for your kill, but of course it reveals information. Rean's list has two mafia on it, so your flip actually gives information on that list. But I'm against lynching for information anyway, I want to lynch you because I think Rean is telling the truth and I think you're the scum.
Why do you think I'm the scum though? I'm not doubting Rean at all. Why not stefftastiq?
Because Stefftastiq could make anything up for his whispers in the night. He revealed a whisper that basically confirmed that Rean was telling the truth about his votecheck. The only way I think stefftastiq is mafia is if Rean is one too.
I just find that possibility less likely than you or GM being the scum.
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On June 15 2011 19:40 Rean wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2011 19:28 Palmar wrote:On June 15 2011 19:26 DropBear wrote:On June 15 2011 18:30 Palmar wrote:
PGO stands for paranoid gun owner, the role you claimed (IE: you kill anyone that visits you).
Also, you misunderstand me, killing you doesn't clear anyone pushing for your kill, but of course it reveals information. Rean's list has two mafia on it, so your flip actually gives information on that list. But I'm against lynching for information anyway, I want to lynch you because I think Rean is telling the truth and I think you're the scum.
Why do you think I'm the scum though? I'm not doubting Rean at all. Why not stefftastiq? Because Stefftastiq could make anything up for his whispers in the night. He revealed a whisper that basically confirmed that Rean was telling the truth about his votecheck. The only way I think stefftastiq is mafia is if Rean is one too. I just find that possibility less likely than you or GM being the scum. My role name was openly available in the thread, faking it wouldn't have been hard. Besides, who says steff can't be a scum medium? Linking his alignment to mine is just stupid.
Steff could've gotten you lynched by simply misreporting tonight. I'd take the gamble to rid the town of their last DT role.
If he had just changed his message and said "1 mafia" or "no mafia", we'd have a completely different day.
I'm not clearing him, but I just think it's unlikely he's scum.
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EPT
