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prplhz
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Denmark8045 Posts
May 22 2011 18:12 GMT
#518
Alright I'm gonna do a bit on hiro protagonist now.

Link
+ Show Spoiler +

On May 17 2011 02:02 hiro protagonist wrote:
good morning team. first timer here.

I agree, this is off to a good start. there is no reason to suspect anyone right now, as there is very little to go on, so its a little wait and see I agree with VisceraEyes, its important to ask alot of questions. I will want clarifications on posts I find suspicious, and please do the same for me!


Link
+ Show Spoiler +

On May 17 2011 02:58 hiro protagonist wrote:
Its true that lurking round is a good place for scum to hide, as there is little evidence to indict them. how ever all but 3 of us have posted and I doubt that ALL of the inactives will be scum...

best bet is a scum has already posted, so we should try to sniff em out! If we don't have a good lead by tomorrow, then we should ask the lurkers to step up and explain themselves...



Posts from around 10-11 hours into the game. IIRC VisceraEyes and Mataza were going at it at this point with occasional input from GiygaS.

Analysis
No incriminating content so far because ... not really much content at all so far. The second post is on page 5, that means after about 2-3 pages of play and maybe it's a bit weird to think that we should just focus on the actives since there's not too much to go by. At this point there had been some accusations against Mataza by VisceraEyes and GiygaS and a couple of "hello" posts and a couple of "man, these inactives are a nuisance" posts and that was it.

Link
+ Show Spoiler +

On May 17 2011 12:23 hiro protagonist wrote:
Ok, here are my thoughts so far,

the first two people I gonna talk about are the ones i have the most read on/talked the most o far:

VisceraEyes: He was the most active in the first few pages, with most of his post wanting simply for all active players to say hi. Also mentioning not to take suspicions of one another as a bad thing. I can agree with this line of logic, as it will foster a more friendly town, and get in on the scum hunting. His FoS of Mataza looks more like a call for discussion then an actual accusation. my worry is that he is almost TOO town, and is a likely prime hit for Mafia, unless of course he IS Mafia.

Mataza: considered the most suspicious as of right now, and with good reasoning. His first post was one of feinting a cop role. and Has been very Defensive initially when VisceraEye ask a question. Then he points the finger right back at VisceraEyes. after that he claims that he "just wanted to see how you would react". However he made a good post about how he wants to talk about what everyone else thinks, and his post are in the vein of scumhunting (when his not busy defending himself). not sure what to think of him tbh.

Next up GiygaS, nord, Palmar,:

These 3 have the most posts with the least amount of Analysis. most likely town wanting to hang low or wait and see before going into to much discussion. GiygaS has done the most in getting discussion going, expesialy around what VisceraEye and Mataza have been saying. not alot to go on.

prplhz: quite at first but then a solid post with good analysis.

Deepblue, Steff, Karshe: still need to here more from them. deepblue has gotten in pretty late with just a one liner. gonna watch to see if he is gonna just slide under the modkill, as there are still some inactives, and is laying low(as in acting scummy)

thats it for now.



These posts from 10-11 hours before deadline day1.

Analysis
Seems to be very vague though, of the most active players so far, he is most critical of VisceraEyes and Mataza while somewhat letting GiygaS off the hook. He mentions nard and Palmar but never says anything about them. Is actually vaguely accusing everybody he talks about except me and GiygaS.

Link
+ Show Spoiler +

On May 18 2011 09:05 hiro protagonist wrote:
Ok, LOTS to go on here, gonna give my take on things:

The General feeling for the first day started like this: the town began giving intro post that most had no content. the exception to this is of course Mataza, who kinda claimed Cop, and then retracted it.( I still do not like is explanation). the first three people to really get the ball rolling where ViscaraEyes, GiygaS, and Mataza. Of the three, I liked VisEyes approach the most, and Mataza's the least. but these 3 started talking, there still talking, and its leading somewhere. the way I feel about it is the longer they talk, the long one will slip up, and for me that does not make them A high priority lynch.

Is one of them Mafia? man it sure looks like it.

the next list of people include me: Hiro, Karshe, Palmar, Prplhz, and nard. Of this group, Prplhz and Karshe have had the most helpful post in my eyes. Palmar and nard mostly made some general post about the situation. Im leaving me out because thats a job for someone else.

Where does this leave me? I starting to look at inactives to vote for. but which one?

The only one I feel right now that would be an ok vote would be Skrammen, and heres why. the only post by Skrammen is one of agreeing with Mataza, apparently for no reason, ether he is a terrible Maffia, or a terrible townie.

Mataza, I want to believe your town, but the way you go about playing just rubs me a bit. I LOVE that you are taking swings at people, but as soon as some one wants to have a disscusion, you ether turn your finger on them, or call them a Bandwaggoner. I also dont like that almost every defense you say "I just wanted to see how you would react." that might be true, but it leaves me with no read on you...

what would we get if we voted Skrammen? if he flips town, we got a good reason to trust Mataza. If he flips scum, well, Mataza has some explaining to do...

will decide in a bit, to give more inactives time to post



From 2 hours before deadline day1.

Analysis
He's agreeing with me and Karshe who at this point are saying that we will vote for inactives. Karshe furthermore says that Mataza will be his pick for day2 lynch. He's again critical against Mataza but the most interesting thing he says is that if Skrammen flips town we have a good reason to trust Mataza. Mataza is voting for GiygaS at this point.

If this means that if Skrammen is townie hiro protagonist is indirectly supporting a lynch of GiygaS on day2. If Skrammen is scum, Mataza would go free. With the knowledge we have now that Mataza is townie I think this is very townie behaviour displayed by hiro protagonist.

Link
+ Show Spoiler +

On May 18 2011 09:08 hiro protagonist wrote:
@VisEyes

and while I was posting you say that
Jez, I was on board with you Vis, but that's just a lame attitude...



This is in response to VisceraEyes basically saying that he quits the game.

Link
+ Show Spoiler +

On May 18 2011 09:48 hiro protagonist wrote:
gonna stay with my line of logic, and vote skrammen. I cant believe more people are not on him given his VERY little content, and insta bandwagon vote.

Best case scenario: town votes GiygaS, and he flips scum. We got reason to trust one another and the hunt is in full swing.

worst case: GiygaS flips green, and we have lots of suspicions. Very good chance of Mafia breaking up trust and getting us to turn on one another.

good no mater what: voting Skrammen. we get ride of a terrible player, and we get a possible read on Mataza. I chose this one.

Eather way, Im happy with day one.

##Vote: Skrammen



This is around 1 hour before deadline day1.

Analysis
At this point GiygaS has 4 votes and hiro protagonist is about to cast the 4th vote for Skrammen. He considers the situation where GiygaS is scum first. This may be a scum-tell as I think most people would probably write about the scenario they consider is most likely first. I don't think he is being fair in his evaluation of the boons of lynching Skrammen in favor of GiygaS.

Link
+ Show Spoiler +

On May 19 2011 07:56 hiro protagonist wrote:
wow, drama drama :D

I have some thoughts and ideas, but they can wait till dawn.
Not much else to say, that hasn't been said.

Lets see how the night unfolds



This is 3 hours before deadline night1. The drama is many of us (me, VisceraEyes, Mataza, Palmar) of us discussing heavily even though we actually nailed a scum.

Analysis
I don't know why drama would warrant a ":D". Maybe it's the inner troll. He's also not at all afraid to get killed this night. I think these are slight scum-tells too.

Link
+ Show Spoiler +

On May 20 2011 05:19 hiro protagonist wrote:
ok guys, slow down.

We lynched a scum on the very first night. We have the upper Hand. im gonna read up on post and come back with a report.



Link
+ Show Spoiler +

On May 20 2011 09:08 hiro protagonist wrote:
So looks like a lot of people are looking into me

DeepBlu2: no I never gave a explanation into my vote after day1. I gave my reasons for the vote BEFORE voting. Something all good townies should do. I still stand behind that vote.

Palmar, nord, and Skrammen have posted some anyalisis of me. All three analyises me equaly well in my opinon, and each draw up different conclusions! Palmar wants to lynch me whill nord thinks im a safe townie. Skrammen is unsure (thanks for steping into the game btw). I find this intriguing...

One thing I will addresses (sense no one really asked me any questions), Is of my play being safe. true. I see no reason to not continue to do so. We got a scum day 1. we have the advantage. I am gonna keep on making my opinions heard, and any suspicion I have known.

As for the rest of the game, my thoughts around Karshes death are like this: mafia does not know if we have a doc. It would be to risky to go Mataza in case the was one, because they cant afford a miss hit. they chose the next best thing; going for blue roles. they took a shot in the dark in hopes off hitting blue. And if they missed, well, It was very unlikely Karshe had a doc on him, so at least its a guarantee town kill.


Link
+ Show Spoiler +

On May 20 2011 09:24 hiro protagonist wrote:
Mataza, I don't get what your plan would accomplish. Mafia can read it to. could you explain it better perhaps, or am i not getting it


Link
+ Show Spoiler +

On May 20 2011 09:42 hiro protagonist wrote:
but then they kill the cop... the longer he stays under, the more reports he can do, the better for us



These posts came 6 hours and 10-11 hours into day2.

Analysis
In the two first posts he is kinda trying to take responsibility for the day1 scum-lynch, even though he in fact voted for Skrammen and never accused GiygaS of anything. He ridicules attempts to analyse him without directly adressing them. I think these are scum-tells. The nightkill analysis in the last paragraph of the second post is quite straight forward and I don't think this is indicative of anything.

In the two last posts he is very interested in what Mataza's blue role plan is about. And by very interested I mean, he has never asked anyone a question in this game before that point. This interest could be a result of him having a blue role. Maybe this is what Mataza meant by him knowing who the doc was. I think there could be another explanation but I'm gonna leave this up to hiro protagonist to answer.

Link
+ Show Spoiler +

On May 21 2011 08:26 hiro protagonist wrote:
Ok, I am at work, so I dont have a lot of time to explain my vote, but here it go's:

Mataza has been less then helpful day 2. there is so much scumminiss going on with his actions that i dont have time to point them all out. i will just point out a few.

1. He used his trust that he built with the town to try to get people to rolecall blue roles, and as everyone pointed out, thats a very bad idea for us, great for mafia, who are behind.

2. He wants to lynch prplhz. Really? the guy who's very last minute vote switch got us a scum lynch on day one in very dramatic fashion?

3. before prplhz vote switch, GiygaS was safe. This could have been planned between them both, with Mataza looking like a townie.

Im gonna put my money on Mataza is S to the scummy ummy.

##Vote Mataza


Link
+ Show Spoiler +

On May 21 2011 10:06 hiro protagonist wrote:
@ stefftastiq

prplhz and I voted for different people.



These post are from 3-1 hours before day2 deadline. His vote for Mataza put him at 3 to Palmar's 2, my 2, and a single vote on himself. The single vote on him was by Palmar.

Analysis
His vote was not an OMGUS as he provides somewhat sufficient reasonable. None of these reasons are original though as they had already been talked about in the game, so this is somewhat of a bandwagon. He also does not discuss why he is not voting for me nor Palmar who had just as many votes. Overall I think these are townie-tells.

Link
+ Show Spoiler +

On May 22 2011 02:33 hiro protagonist wrote:
T_T

Mataza, WHY??? it makes no sense to me for you to have acted the way you did...




This was 3.5 hours after Mataza's lynching.

Analysis
An emotional outburst after a lynching. He also did this after day1 lynch.

Conclusion
I think I very much want to know why hiro protagonist was so interested in Mataza's blue role exposure plan. I don't think I can conclude anything before he gets back to us on this.
http://i.imgur.com/M7t7egx.png
prplhz
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Denmark8045 Posts
May 22 2011 22:03 GMT
#520
@VisceraEyes

No you're actually the one I'm most sure about not being scum but I doubt that I will post an analysis concluding that. By the way, imagine that neither me nor Palmar are scum, who do you think has been acting most scummy then?
http://i.imgur.com/M7t7egx.png
prplhz
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Denmark8045 Posts
May 22 2011 22:23 GMT
#523
@VisceraEyes

I think this is very weird because I'm like 98% sure that you're townie, and like 90% sure that Palmar is townie. So I think it is very weird that you're going at us like you are. But I've noticed that Palmar is clearly better at this game than I am and I want town to win so I'm gonna propose that you vote for me instead of Palmar, and then if I flip green you don't go for Palmar after me but instead work with him to find the remaining scum. This is not ideal as I'd like to be here all game but I think maybe it's the only way to convince you. And it's too late if you're convinced that you're not right AFTER you lynch Palmar because then I think town will have lost one of it's best players and that can't happen (again!).

So I'd like you to consider either voting for me instead of Palmar and encouraging others to do so too, or to drop your silly crusade because as Mataza said before he died, Palmar is not scum. I might be but Palmar sure isn't. That's what he said VisceraEyes and I can find the quote if you don't believe me.
http://i.imgur.com/M7t7egx.png
prplhz
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Denmark8045 Posts
May 22 2011 22:24 GMT
#524
By the way, I totally forgot this, but I was roleblocked again tonight. That's another reason to lynch me before Palmar, because then you will know for sure if the goons have a roleblocker and you will be able to eliminate two setups in one lynch.
http://i.imgur.com/M7t7egx.png
prplhz
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Denmark8045 Posts
May 23 2011 20:28 GMT
#538
Alright.

Analysis is for the living so I'm just gonna post a bit of everything here without really thinking about arguments.

VisceraEyes:
Emotional guy but I doubt that he is Mafia. His fervor can hardly be faked and no Mafia would act like this. I'm 99% sure that he is townie.

Palmar:
Analytical guy who will have been voting for 2 townies and one undecided after today. I am 80-90% sure that he is townie. If he does not go after hiro protagonist on day4 I think it is much more likely that he is scum. If hiro protagonist is nightkilled you should closely monitor how he and VisceraEyes react.

Skrammen:
Has 7 posts in this game so far. Mostly been bandwagoning without any real content in his posts. About 70% sure that he is townie.

hiro protagonist:
Has some more posts. In my analysis of him I delayed my conclusion until after he had answered my question (which he now has). About 25% sure that he is townie, that is 75% sure that he is scum.

Wunder:
Already posted my analysis on him. I'm about 60% sure that he is townie. Nobody noticed but I actually missed his latest post in my analysis so you can read that and make your own conclusions 'cause the rest of his posts are there.

stefftastiq and nard:
I don't know much about these guys. 50% sure that they are townies but also 50% sure that they are scum. Very undecided but a good scum in this game will have tried to stay under the radar. I did not do a thorough analysis of their posts and I doubt I will.

Once I'm dead you will know for sure that I was actually twice roleblocked. If cop has anything conclusive and useful to report he should roleclaim during night3 and post his findings. The nurse should protect him during the night and then you should lynch cop on day4 to verify his findings. If nobody roleclaims I think hiro protagonist, stefftastiq and nard are most likely to be scum and I doubt that we will even have a cop/nurse.

I will be voting for hiro protagonist today but I will not vote until 3-4 hours before deadline as on all the other days.

I'll be here to answer questions until dusk.
http://i.imgur.com/M7t7egx.png
prplhz
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Denmark8045 Posts
May 24 2011 01:57 GMT
#561
Well that sealed the deal.

I decided that maybe I should vote a bit later. Maybe this has put scum off.

I noticed that Palmar considers me the "brain" of the mafia. I think this is a general trend in this game, if people notice someone who is either "great scum" or "bad townie" they're gonna go for the former even considering that this is a newbie game. I think we have "bad townies" and "decent scum" because I think it is generally easier to be scum than townie.

Also I think stefftastiq and nard are quite scummy. They both made the final two votes during day1 and stefftastiq threw the only vote at GiygaS which could not at the time of voting have any influence. Skrammen was already at 6 votes and putting GiygaS to 6 too would not have any effect. nard threw the deciding vote in that, if he had voted for GiygaS then he would have gone home. Of course he could have voted for a third candidate but that's risky as hell and I doubt scum would do that. I think the remaining scum are two of hiro protagonist, stefftastiq and nard. Mentiond in order of scum-likelyhood.

You still have one mislynch so use that carefully.

##Vote hiro protagonist
http://i.imgur.com/M7t7egx.png
prplhz
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Denmark8045 Posts
May 24 2011 02:06 GMT
#567
GG people, good fun to play with you.

Hope to see you in many future TLMafia games and I will follow this game to the end for sure.

Also thank you to chaoser for the daypost! Much appreciated that you guys voluntarily spend your time organizing mafia for noobs like me!
http://i.imgur.com/M7t7egx.png
prplhz
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Denmark8045 Posts
May 29 2011 11:37 GMT
#649
I'm gonna join in!

http://i.imgur.com/M7t7egx.png
prplhz
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Denmark8045 Posts
May 30 2011 02:02 GMT
#659
gg
http://i.imgur.com/M7t7egx.png
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