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really interesting day/night turnout.
have some free time now to investigate a bit, so here it goes:
hiro protagonist: has a medium amount of posts/content on day 1 with a reasonable townie logic. defends viscera during the early FoS'ing between matazar and viscera. he keeps being slightly suspicious of matazar and offered imo the best reasoning for voting on day 1
gonna stay with my line of logic, and vote skrammen. I cant believe more people are not on him given his VERY little content, and insta bandwagon vote.
Best case scenario: town votes GiygaS, and he flips scum. We got reason to trust one another and the hunt is in full swing.
worst case: GiygaS flips green, and we have lots of suspicions. Very good chance of Mafia breaking up trust and getting us to turn on one another.
good no mater what: voting Skrammen. we get ride of a terrible player, and we get a possible read on Mataza. I chose this one.
Eather way, Im happy with day one.
##Vote: Skrammen
in light of the last post by viscera we should not forget about the vote on skrammen for a possible read on matazar.
least suspicious for me atm.
deepblu2: not that active. first posts were pretty meager. kinda suspicious of him, so im gonna quote all posts after the short ones with no content and write my opinion.
I'm leaning towards Mataza at the moment. I'm not positive yet but just the fact he's defending himself so aggressively and has been caught with a couple of contradictions while blaming others as well. I'm going to be keep looking at his posts but he's my only suspect currently. I'm not saying it's definitely Mataza just the way he's handling himself is very defensive.
very careful wording with his suspicion. not too much to say about that post
Alright. Well I guess I'll make another post but I'm new at this. I just wanted to make the 2nd post saying I was here because you were waiting for a post and I only had a minute to write it so sorry about that.
I am not a band wagon/front-runner sir, and I am most definately not mafia as since Day 1 I have been secretly observing people's actions.
Upon further review, I believe that Mataza is not mafia. He posted earlier that in order for the Mafia to thrive and be successful, they must lay low. However, he has done quite the opposite and I am starting to think that his "defense" isn't an overreaction to being Mafia but instead just trying to have justice served by having us vote the actual mafia members. I do believe, however, that the correct mafia member is none other than Glygas. Being sly in his ways, he has tricked people to vote against Matiza who he must believe is his biggest threat. Glygas has turned against the two most active players looking to seek justice for the Town in my eyes. He has been accusing people constantly and the time he has defended himself, he just used quotes or responses that were not though out which makes it very hard to find hard evidence.
with this post it starts getting interesting. he posts directly after being accused by palmar. a lot of excuses early on, the lamest one being that he cannot be mafia as hes been secretly observing other peoples actions.
he retracts his suspicion and is 100% certain of glygas, pretty early on.
i have to admit im analyzing after reading visceras big post about matazar sacrificing glygas to get a leader role going. this would fit in perfectly if mafia decided between this and his post before to sacrifice glygas as he was playing too obvious.
next post is his vote on glygas, then a quick comment on the successful lynch of glygas.
last post until now is the following:
+ Show Spoiler +There is still time to go.. I think the people who tried to offvote so that Glygas wouldn't be lynched should be taken into strong consideration for obvious reasons.
states the obvious and puts the focus on the people not voting for glygas.
now if the biggest of em all conspiracies is true and glygas was in fact a sacrificial lamb, we can be pretty sure that we wont find any mafia on the offvoters list (and im not saying that just because im an offvoter :p )
anyways, my conclusion: pretty suspicious (even though he had the proper read on glygas), might be just a mafia newb though.
prplhz : so many posts.. claims hes completely new to mafia and posts really nice content afterwards. is suspicious of matazar in the beginning and focuses on him trying to get a leadership role without really accusing anyone, which is bad for the town. also is suspicious of me for my post about 1st post might not be posted in the first few hours of day1 ;(
he also had a nice read on viscera & giygas turning on each other, with at least one of them being scum. he first voted skrammen, but what made him the day 1 hero is his last minute switch to giygas which led to his lynch. this makes the whole giygas-sacrifice story either less believable, more lucky for mafia or he himself is mafia. O_O
after day1 is over he's warning of viscera, who is kind of a weird guy to analyze..
anyway, without any proper reasoning behind it, i still believe hes one of the good guys rather than being mafia.
Palmar: first posts contain no real value, restates the current situation at that time and wants inactives to post. also didnt like my post about 1st posts taking a while :D
then he takes a strong stance on matazar being inactive "innocent as new-born baby" - which he revokes later on.
skimming through the rest of his (huge amount of) posts, he has a pretty reasonable stance on giygas during all the time. first unsure of him being bad mafia or noob town, he wants to keep him even in case that he's mafia to let him make more mistakes. after the lynch he is quick to analyze that he might be indeed a sacrifice to gain trust and revokes his focus on offvoters. after a quick defense against viscera who goes apeshit on him for changing his mind there were no more posts.
im gonna take a break from analyzing here, this took longer then i expected and im far from done.. i will try to post my analysis of the other ppl in this daycycle. already fearing matazars and visceras analysis O_O so many posts..
anyway, keep in mind i read visceras day2 post of being suspicious of matazar just before and i only analyzed by reading all single posts, not the complete thread again and relied on my memory from following the thread earlier..
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You guys are really discussing a lot :-)
What I need to decide for myself is if the first day scum takeout was a lucky shot or an action on behalf of good reasoning - I'm not sure, especially after reading all the posts from the night.
if the next actions are based on who would gain from the mafia and the kill was random - the assumptions also would be random?
but if the scumkill on d1 was correctly executed - whos 'main opponent' in the discussion did get taken out?
Im also sorry for few posts, but you guys really are tearing the posts here apart - and its not always that much to add on - and to see the big lines of 'whos following who' I probably need another vote!
Looking forward to the analysis of my posts 
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holy fk - so many new posts while i was writing my 1st big post with some of them (Palmar's especially) making me think again..
wonder how to keep up with the analysis on everyone on this rate (and yes, this is a pun to wunder lol)
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That's FoS Wunder 
Instead of writing "I currently have my eye on both Palmar and PurpleHaze" you could've written "FoS on Palmar and PurpleHaze".
I think I've made my stand clear. I am not comfortable with the view that we only have to take a look at the outspoken players in order to find scum. But VisEyes seems pretty zealous in his witch hunt, so I'm not going to argue any more with him. He has at least shown the willingness to change his opinions in the past, which is in my opinion a good thing.
My time is better spent trying to analyse what little information we have on the remaining sheep in the game.
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United Kingdom2950 Posts
@Nard: pretty nice post, and... pretty bad pun I agree somewhat with your analysis, however I doubt a lot of the inactive people would be mafia, especially since reading the newbie guide one would assume mafioso to be active, rather than inactive.
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Wouldnt the mafia want to be active players, so they would seem as town - tho with bad intensions?
At least some of them - silent killers vs loudmouth misdirectionleaders ?
This game requires so much thinking ;-)
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I also agree with the viewpoint that Mafia are going to be active rather than inactive. As Mataza pointed out VERY early in the game (and very pointedly too), it's a common strategy for scum to lie low. However, this town has been taking a VERY aggressive posture toward inactives (against ALL my urging)...logic would dictate that scum would NOT hide in the inactives. I'm taking Palmar's stalwart insistence that the remaining scum will be inactive as an attempt to derail the town's hunt for scum.
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@stefftastiq
The mafia want to fit in.
If the town is quiet, the mafia wants to be quiet. If the town is loud, the mafia wants to be loud.
My initial focus on getting everyone talking is that it's easier to spot loud mafia in a loud town, than quiet mafia in a quiet town. Obviously there are exceptions, but that's the general rule.
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United Kingdom2950 Posts
@Palmar: Oh. Ok That makes sense then. FoS on Palmar and PurpleHaze
@VisEyes: I agree. Palmar's argument and evidence against you have been somewhat shakey, though I'd have to go through and analyze it word for word ><
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@Palmar
Witch hunt, huh? Back with the dismissive defense then. That's cool. Your inconsistent behavior and attempts to derail the town's search for scum are duly noted and will be reflected on your PERMANENT record. Whilst you're plotting your next device to discredit or dismiss me, I'll be actively searching for your cohort.
@Town
All you need to do is go back through Palmar's posts leading up to the vote d1, note his attitude toward me when he doesn't consider me a threat. He barely even mentions me, other than to say that my posts are useless, straw houses that could be blown over with an inkling of analysis. Next note his tone after my analysis. He makes sure to note that it's my best post yet, but then tells me why it's utterly wrong.
It may be a stretch to ask for your trust at this point, but if you feel as I do, that Palmar's behavior is suspicious at best, destructive at worst, then I urge you to go back and take a look at his posts.
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Thanks VisEyes. The best way to prove you wrong is for people to read what you're basing your argument on.
I promised to go hunt the scum instead of spending time arguing with VisEyes. I have done this now and I think I may be on scum trail.
[r]Hiro Protagonist[/r]
On May 17 2011 02:02 hiro protagonist wrote:good morning team. first timer here. I agree, this is off to a good start. there is no reason to suspect anyone right now, as there is very little to go on, so its a little wait and see I agree with VisceraEyes, its important to ask alot of questions. I will want clarifications on posts I find suspicious, and please do the same for me!
This is his first post. It contains nothing of value but some pointers about being new. There is no reason to state you're new to the game after it's started, but many other people in this game did so. I'm not going to get locked up on that.
On May 17 2011 02:31 GiygaS wrote:Show nested quote +On May 17 2011 02:02 hiro protagonist wrote:good morning team. first timer here. I agree, this is off to a good start. there is no reason to suspect anyone right now, as there is very little to go on, so its a little wait and see I agree with VisceraEyes, its important to ask alot of questions. I will want clarifications on posts I find suspicious, and please do the same for me! What do you think of the whole inactive debate? I think first day we should give them a break, but as they are more and more inactive we may want to infer scummyness. Also, its boring when people don't actually play :-P
This is a quote by the confirmed mafia in the game. His posting style was really damn random so there isn't much to read from it. But notice how friendly his style is toward his fellow mafia?
On May 17 2011 02:58 hiro protagonist wrote:
Its true that lurking round is a good place for scum to hide, as there is little evidence to indict them. how ever all but 3 of us have posted and I doubt that ALL of the inactives will be scum...
best bet is a scum has already posted, so we should try to sniff em out! If we don't have a good lead by tomorrow, then we should ask the lurkers to step up and explain themselves...
Another fluff post. Not much to read from this.
On May 17 2011 12:23 hiro protagonist wrote:
Ok, here are my thoughts so far,
the first two people I gonna talk about are the ones i have the most read on/talked the most o far:
VisceraEyes: He was the most active in the first few pages, with most of his post wanting simply for all active players to say hi. Also mentioning not to take suspicions of one another as a bad thing. I can agree with this line of logic, as it will foster a more friendly town, and get in on the scum hunting. His FoS of Mataza looks more like a call for discussion then an actual accusation. my worry is that he is almost TOO town, and is a likely prime hit for Mafia, unless of course he IS Mafia.
Mataza: considered the most suspicious as of right now, and with good reasoning. His first post was one of feinting a cop role. and Has been very Defensive initially when VisceraEye ask a question. Then he points the finger right back at VisceraEyes. after that he claims that he "just wanted to see how you would react". However he made a good post about how he wants to talk about what everyone else thinks, and his post are in the vein of scumhunting (when his not busy defending himself). not sure what to think of him tbh.
Next up GiygaS, nord, Palmar,:
These 3 have the most posts with the least amount of Analysis. most likely town wanting to hang low or wait and see before going into to much discussion. GiygaS has done the most in getting discussion going, expesialy around what VisceraEye and Mataza have been saying. not alot to go on.
prplhz: quite at first but then a solid post with good analysis.
Deepblue, Steff, Karshe: still need to here more from them. deepblue has gotten in pretty late with just a one liner. gonna watch to see if he is gonna just slide under the modkill, as there are still some inactives, and is laying low(as in acting scummy)
thats it for now.
Ah finally, the first post where he provides real analysis. Granted it's very "safe". He doesn't point any fingers and he doesn't put his neck out there. Both the long analysis he gives are inconclusive.
Then I bolded a part where he congratulates Giyg for getting people to talk. By this point almost everyone else was getting fed up with the spam.
On May 18 2011 09:05 hiro protagonist wrote:
Ok, LOTS to go on here, gonna give my take on things:
The General feeling for the first day started like this: the town began giving intro post that most had no content. the exception to this is of course Mataza, who kinda claimed Cop, and then retracted it.( I still do not like is explanation). the first three people to really get the ball rolling where ViscaraEyes, GiygaS, and Mataza. Of the three, I liked VisEyes approach the most, and Mataza's the least. but these 3 started talking, there still talking, and its leading somewhere. the way I feel about it is the longer they talk, the long one will slip up, and for me that does not make them A high priority lynch.
Is one of them Mafia? man it sure looks like it.
the next list of people include me: Hiro, Karshe, Palmar, Prplhz, and nard. Of this group, Prplhz and Karshe have had the most helpful post in my eyes. Palmar and nard mostly made some general post about the situation. Im leaving me out because thats a job for someone else.
Where does this leave me? I starting to look at inactives to vote for. but which one?
The only one I feel right now that would be an ok vote would be Skrammen, and heres why. the only post by Skrammen is one of agreeing with Mataza, apparently for no reason, ether he is a terrible Maffia, or a terrible townie.
Mataza, I want to believe your town, but the way you go about playing just rubs me a bit. I LOVE that you are taking swings at people, but as soon as some one wants to have a disscusion, you ether turn your finger on them, or call them a Bandwaggoner. I also dont like that almost every defense you say "I just wanted to see how you would react." that might be true, but it leaves me with no read on you...
what would we get if we voted Skrammen? if he flips town, we got a good reason to trust Mataza. If he flips scum, well, Mataza has some explaining to do...
will decide in a bit, to give more inactives time to post
Surprisingly good post, considering his earlier post history. He wants to vote for Skrammen on completely logical basis. There is no arguing with the fact that at this point Skrammen wasn't being useful to the town.
But the content of this post is really just... "I'm going to say intelligent things that make look pro-town, without actually taking a conclusive action"
Note that he doesn't stick his neck out far enough to actually cast a vote against Skrammen...
On May 18 2011 09:48 hiro protagonist wrote:
gonna stay with my line of logic, and vote skrammen. I cant believe more people are not on him given his VERY little content, and insta bandwagon vote.
Best case scenario: town votes GiygaS, and he flips scum. We got reason to trust one another and the hunt is in full swing.
worst case: GiygaS flips green, and we have lots of suspicions. Very good chance of Mafia breaking up trust and getting us to turn on one another.
good no mater what: voting Skrammen. we get ride of a terrible player, and we get a possible read on Mataza. I chose this one.
Eather way, Im happy with day one.
##Vote: Skrammen
Alright, this is where he finally casts his vote. His reasoning is similar to mine but there is a big... no... huge difference in the methodology. Which is what felt so alarming to me.
Hiro wants to lynch Skrammen because it's safe.
I want to threaten to lynch inactives to get them to post. (once again I refer to my promise of switching a vote toward Giyg if we got everyone posting).
The entire point of voting inactives is not to lynch them, it's to get them to defend themselves. Hiro just... ignores that and goes straight for the kill. Hopefully saving his partner in crime.
This is alarming.
This is incriminating.
##Vote: Hiro Protagonist
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lol that should have of course been
Hiro Protagonist
and my vote should have been bolded:
##Vote: Hiro Protagonist
Sorry about that.
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@Palmar
You've said often that you want to THREATEN to lynch inactives...yet your actions speak otherwise. It's easy to promise something. However, as we saw on d1, everyone ended up posting and everyone ended up voting. And you still voted for an inactive. Not only that, but an inactive that no one else in town was targeting. So you not only failed to deliver on your promise, but you admittedly INTENTIONALLY voted against the rest of town. Your reason? "I was okay with either one of them dying."
"But everyone's post was useless and I wanted ANALYSIS...I failed to deliver because the conditions were not met"
It seems to me that everyone's posts are useless in your eyes. Everyone, that is, except people that agree with you. So what you really MEANT by that promise was "I'll switch my vote when I'm satisfied that everyone is posting to my exacting specifications of activity"...or in other words, "I'll switch my vote when I'm damned good and ready".......or never as your actions have indicated. My guess is that you never REALLY intended to switch your vote, unless something ruined your plan. But that's just speculation.
Your move sir.
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You can speculate all you want. I mean, it's clear that you really took it close to heart when I dismissed your attacks on purplehaze, so your accusations are influenced by the fact that you simply don't like me.
I meant to stop arguing with you...
Look at the situation from my point of view. Skrammen was under heavy fire and he was about to get lynched, yet he hadn't provided any solid analysis or even attempted to reason.
He knew why he was getting lynched, and he knew why he was getting lynched. Yet he failed to contribute anything.
Bandwagoning him would have been against my methodology. I don't want to lynch inactives.
Voting for GiygaS would also have been against my methodology, I want to use votes to force posting. GiygaS didn't need any encouragement to post.
I have no illusion that I will be able to convince you that you're wrong. You have made up your mind, and anything I say will be twisted in your mind because you're reading my posts in the mindset I am scum.
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@Palmar
Heh...Hiro Protagonist. Of the inactives, this guy has appeared to me to be the most rational and analytical. It stands to reason that he would be your vote. His point regarding Skrammen IS valid you know...Skrammen DID bandwagon-vote for GiygaS...and he was UTTERLY absent until an hour before voting was closed. Let me guess - not getting any scummy reads from this guy I suppose, right?
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All of my opinions and theories are based on my analysis of the situation...I don't dislike you, as I don't know you. I didn't appreciate the comments you made to prplhz, but it's a far-shot to claim that my entire argument is based on simply 'Vis doesn't like me'. I've laid out all the facts and done the research. This is far more than I can say for you. EVERYTHING you've said from d1 can be grouped into 2 general catagories: "Why Inactives Are Bad for the Town" and "Why Everyone In Town Should Do The Opposite of What They Think They SHOULD Do"
It's pretty apparent that you're now grasping at straws to save yourself, so I won't waste time trying to convince you of why you're coming off as very VERY guilty to me anymore. I'll focus instead on trying to find your accomplice.
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On May 19 2011 21:41 Palmar wrote:
Look at the situation from my point of view. Skrammen was under heavy fire and he was about to get lynched, yet he hadn't provided any solid analysis or even attempted to reason.
He knew why he was getting lynched, and he knew why he was getting lynched. Yet he failed to contribute anything.
First of all, the absence of any kind of defensive posts at that point was simply because by the time I realized I was under fire, you had already moved on and lynched Giygas. The day cycle ends at 3 in the morning for me, and it happened rather quickly.
I am a bit curious as to the reason why. I do not believe the mafia would benefit from my death, as I was rather inactive and I dident really pose any threat to them. I think it is simply because its the least risky for the town. I do not believe Hiro to be a mafia at this point.
Ill be back with some actual content when I get come. There's an ocean of stuff to go through.
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The prodigal lynch candidate of Day 1 returns. I eagerly anticipate your analysis my friend...you narrowly avoided dying Day 1. Let not your stroke of luck be in vain. 
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On May 19 2011 21:58 VisceraEyes wrote:
All of my opinions and theories are based on my analysis of the situation...I don't dislike you, as I don't know you. I didn't appreciate the comments you made to prplhz, but it's a far-shot to claim that my entire argument is based on simply 'Vis doesn't like me'. I've laid out all the facts and done the research. This is far more than I can say for you. EVERYTHING you've said from d1 can be grouped into 2 general catagories: "Why Inactives Are Bad for the Town" and "Why Everyone In Town Should Do The Opposite of What They Think They SHOULD Do"
It's pretty apparent that you're now grasping at straws to save yourself, so I won't waste time trying to convince you of why you're coming off as very VERY guilty to me anymore. I'll focus instead on trying to find your accomplice.
Cool, I think it's good that we two just back off each other and let the town decide. It's not beneficial for anyone that two townies shout foul at each other while the scum sits back and relaxes.
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United Kingdom2950 Posts
Well, Mataza has been particularly quiet today, hopefully we'll see some analysis from him tomorrow, but I will save my vote till then. For now, I retract my FoS from PurpleHaze. There is still a FoS on Palmar and will probably be till the end of the day.
Also of note, VisceraEyes is defending HiroProtagonist, calling him rational and analytical. I think we should note that down depending on who gets lynches tomorrow, as VisEyes could still very well be a scum manipulating the town.
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EPT
