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Poland8075 Posts
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Poland8075 Posts
On May 11 2011 06:28 Qatol wrote: Read the earlier games. People did this. They got pulled down. No trying to start a new streak! I will find a way to break it before a year ends if you do! curses, foiled again | ||
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Anyways, things I've noticed so far. I haven't really kept track of many of you new whippersnapper mafia players, but here's what I have seen so far: GMarshal posts a plan that's so shitty and unrealistic I'm not sure if it's intentionally weak. Scamp makes bad arguments several times and flipflops more than the waffle I made for breakfast today. Ace is semi-retired, as usual. inb4 Chezinu spam. Bumatlarge somehow has managed to make his posting quality improve since I last saw him. That being said, he doesn't really say anything. Incognito is being, well, Incognito (huehue) Radfield is anti-American. I propose we lynch him for patriotic purposes. Nobody else I really recognize yet so I ignored the rest of your posts with great prejudice. As for me, what I have to contribute to the current discussion? Nothing, because I think all this bickering about roles is silly. All we do is cause stupid townies to clump up and try to get the same 5 or 6 roles, which screws us in the long run. Instead of thinking about roles we should immediately be focusing on, which is stupid because the first few roles are going to be a total crapshoot anyways, because it's Nash equilibrium to go [1][1], we should be focusing on roles that people in mid and late queue should take. Doctors/Medic/Bodyguards are a necessary role in this sense to dampen kp, both from mafia as well as overzealous townies or even third parties if there are any. In fact, the more KP dampening we have, the better. Things like NRA member will discourage KP, and we should pick up the medic and martyr too. Jack is also good, as is veteran. Things that punish scum for attacking, things that make scum have to heavily think about their actions, things that force them to WifoM, instead of concentrating on the three or four roles that seem op. One player, regardless of role, isn't going to do jack in this game. I can't wait for someone to be all happy that he got this or that role, and is going to totally pwn all those mafia noobs, only to get blindsided by some random town vig who pops his cap. tl:dr-bads being bad, also, if you're a mid/low pick, grab anti-kp roles. Mafia has virtually no reason to take them, unless they want to form a medic circlejerk, in which case by all means let them. | ||
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On May 15 2011 04:08 Node wrote: Another thing to keep in mind is that the mafia doesn't necessarily have to go for the hyper-agressive, maximize-night-KP-style of play. All of the protection roles in the world won't help us if they go for a setup like Kingmaker, Hero, Politician, Emperor, Vote Rigger, Pardoner. They've got the tools to completely deny us the lynch. Because of this, I'm totally behind just giving town nearly free reign on the roles they think are "cool" -- we need a good mix to make wacky strategies like this more unlikely. I do think that it's a good idea to "forbid" a select few roles that are blatantly anti-town. However, I don't think it's really necessary to spell these out, since we're all smart enough to know that if Prince o' Darkness is rolechecked we've got scum on our hands. Also, is there anywhere we can see the numbers people have previously picked for the draft? I looked through the previous OPs, and they have the draft orders, but not the numbers themselves. this man is mafia a) wifoms b) totally encourages chaos c) wifoms more d) says one thing and then says another | ||
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guess why. | ||
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other than that i'm going to pick the biggest troll role that i can, because that's how i roll. | ||
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On May 16 2011 09:01 Foolishness wrote: These plans for the top 5-8 players to pick roles is retarded in it's current form. If flamewheel/Caller/whoever don't agree to take their designated role (assuming we have a consensus on what roles they should take) we need to lynch them, no questions asked. What's to stop Scamp for all of a sudden posting "hey guys, I'm going to take Hero or Assassin (or whatever role he might want) sorry"? Are you just going to shift down the important role list even further? Yawn. Waste of time. People are going to pick whatever they want to pick. I'm not opposed to general guidelines, such as town should focus on DT related roles or survival roles, whatever, but assigning roles to the top 5 players is just silly. If you are going to go that route, we should have everyone claim as soon as the picks are out. Either everyone should claim or no one should claim (that includes assigning roles before the picks). Nothing in between. #1 flipflopper, also mimics exactly what I said. contributes nothing new, contradicts himself. textbook mafia tactiks here | ||
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I'm not going to say anything if I don't need to say it. And quite frankly, I don't see a need to start jabbing at suspects on day 1, the day where historically we're most likely going to end up lynching a townie. I'll let you guys run rampant for a bit because I'm not familiar with a lot of you guyz posting styles. this is how I roll. If I say something, pay close attention to it. This game isn't about roles, its about peoples, so trying to play to roles is silly. Sure roles are nice and all, but its not mafia if there was no serious analysis done. And trying to do Day 1 analysis without any other information is stupid. | ||
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On May 17 2011 12:29 Kavdragon wrote: Um...Duh? As I've said before, it's day one, and reads are pretty sketchy because of the lack of information. I'll say it again: The best way to get information is to pressure people and look at the response. Any pushes at this point are obviously going to be pressure, not actual attempts to get someone lynched. (Well. Depending on the response...) Look at my posting: that's pretty much all I've done, from my very first post (pressuring Node) to now, pressuring caller and Wiggles. I have a scum read on you too, but I don't trust myself to make anything close to an accurate read on you (especially since I automatically associate you with scum) so I'm leaving you alone. In general i think that only mafia have something to fear from people applying pressure, as townies will be judged by their reactions. Incog telling pointing fingers and telling FW to nuke is exactly the sort of thing that generates discussion and information on people. For instance, if me and incog start pressuring a townie (esspecially if there's not a much of a reason to) and someone else jumps on, then you've just got your self someone who's looking awfully scummy. This tactic has been used by skilled players to great effect so don't tell me it doesn't work. Also, what you said about putting on scum goggles is a very real danger, but it's something that I've been accepting full knowing because again, it's not about making a real case, it's about pressure. If that requires me to purposefully misinterpret posts, then I'll do it. Of course now that you've made me say this my pressure will be less effective... I wasn't going to say anything, but then I realized that I've seen a similar so-called "pressure" strategy many, many times before. What happened? It was a mafia trying to out Blues, and sure enough, Cop got outed Day 1, game went downhill from there: There's applying pressure, and then there's trying to win arguments. What you are doing here is just trying to win an argument. I've been looking around and I've noticed three types of people (many exceptions of course, cough Chezinu cough), which I'm going to group into three categories. A) People who are taking risks. These are people like Incognito and Flamewheel. B) People who are pussyfooting around and not committing to anything. This should be fairly obvious. C) People who claim to be doing things because it is pro-town while at the same time doing B. This includes people like you. Your argument is this: if we can get information, it is a good thing. This is the same argument certain players have made before-namely, lynching people is good for information. Mafia are not the type of players that take risks. They in fact avoid risks because they have certainty available. Why rely on risk when you have less resources? If every lynch was a 50/50 coinflip between Mafia and Town, Mafia would lose very quickly. Therefore, it is natural for Mafia, whom have an information advantage in this game, to rely on certainty and to avoid risks whenever possible. To that extent, Incognito and Flamewheel both are giving off town vibes. But they are also tricky bastards, so they're still on notice. On the other hand, we have people who aren't committing to anything. This is a sign of either stupid townies or stupid mafia. More likely mafia, because as I said above mafia don't take risks. But they don't matter right now because both of those parties are relatively ineffective this early in the game. Then we have people that are like you. You have played very interestingly-sure, you have been pressuring people, including me, so this could easily be seen as an OMGUS, except it's not. In your very words, you have been pressuring people to get a reaction. That's nice and all, but you yourself have given a reaction in response to Ace's pressure per se. What is this reaction, you ask? It's this: Look at my posting: that's pretty much all I've done, from my very first post (pressuring Node) to now, pressuring caller and Wiggles. I have a scum read on you too, but I don't trust myself to make anything close to an accurate read on you (especially since I automatically associate you with scum) so I'm leaving you alone. You do three things here: A) Said because I did X, therefore I am not fishy. B) Said to the pressurer that you yourself are fishy, therefore your opinion doesn't count C) Said "I find you suspicious, but I'm not going to do anything about it and instead go after other people." D) Have essentially provided cover for yourself through saying Um...Duh? As I've said before, it's day one, and reads are pretty sketchy because of the lack of information. therefore justifying any consequences that may potentially result of your actions.Your entire argument basically boils down to "I'm doing this, therefore I'm advancing town's cause, therefore I'm a townie, therefore anything bad that happens is not my fault because I'm a townie." Except this is the scummiest possible argument possible. You don't commit to anything, in the interest of just "getting reactions," and absolve yourself from say, the likelihood that your scum team is going to use the fruits of your "pressure" to figure out who has the stronger roles and shoot them first. You even proceed to make intentionally weak arguments such as using numbers to find mafia-in your own words you even admit that it was a shitty strategy. You miss the point entirely. The numbers were never something I used to figure out who was scum, but simply a way for me to narrow down who I will focus my posting on. It makes me (and hopefully others) post opinions on who they think is scummy. The numbers add NOTHING to my argument towards someone, they simply were the means by which I selected someone to analyse. And you admit that's how you argue, as well: it's not about making a real case, it's about pressure. If that requires me to purposefully misinterpret posts, then I'll do it. So we have someone who's playing safe, making shit arguments so people can argue them, never commits to anything-just "pressures until he gets a reaction"-claiming this is all in the name of the greater good, that everybody else should follow suit, and so on and so forth. You've layered your arguments with lots of defenses and absolve yourself of responsibility. This isn't something town does-look in this post, made by someone whom is quite possibly a sneaky bastard but is giving out strong town vibes: Also, I'm so glad nukes are public. Let me prove I'm not America. ##Nuke: infinitestory When no nuke kills my fellow staff member at the end of the day, we'll all be happy. Actually, that's not true. If somebody hypothetically had actually chosen America, they could launch the same nuke. Good luck with that, though--I can check and then shoot anybody foolish enough to do that in the following nights. Now just let me do my thing and check, protect, and/or shoot people at night. This man has balls. Shrugs off an accusation by doing the most direct thing possible. Personally takes responsibility for any holes in his actions. Isn't afraid in general. Seems a bit different, eh? In any case, given the above, I'd like to continue the fingerpointing. ##FOS Kavdragon | ||
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On May 17 2011 16:32 Barundar wrote: Great. Now it's 10 different people. You know if town sits and throws around random votes, mafia is going to do it as well, right? FoS: Caller so are you claiming that you're mafia brah? | ||
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On May 17 2011 16:39 Barundar wrote: FoS≠Vote Caller throws a FoS, but makes a vote. I throw a FoS, because he tries to introduce yet another target, bringing us to 10 in total, way more than we need. so, your argument is that since we already have targets we should ignore everything that has been said before and instead tunnel on the people whom have been accused early, despite any later developments to the contrary? real tunnel vision. Your arguments could be summed up as follows: a) lynching incognito is okay, because ace and foolishness are supporting it! b) i support policy lynches (note: HUGE scumtell) c) if we're spread out, scum will be able to bandwagon on someone for their purposes! d) we should lynch to deal with a role that may or may not have been selected (because obviously one small role is super duper important in mafia and is the difference between winning and losing) to which I respond a) lol b) lol c) lol d) lol | ||
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On May 17 2011 16:58 Incognito wrote: And Caller shows his true colors. I agree that Kavdragon is showing the "trying to lead the town without being in the spotlight" syndrome. But Caller I think you missed one important post: We now have a healthy pot of information to sift through. Guess I know what I'm going to do tomorrow. Everyone should go back and look at what's already been posted. incognito, why don't we let kevdragon defend himself first before you jump in and set off any of my landmines for me. I'm applying pressure after all and want to see what he has to say. | ||
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On May 18 2011 04:12 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Sorry I've been gone for a while, I'm trying to get rid of a trojan from my Mum's comp and have been looking up and trying to apply fixes. On the lynch: We shouldn't be afraid to lynch into the top of the list if we think there's a good chance of the target being scum. If we kill scum, all that does is give mafia back their role if they have the copycat. I'd much rather just try to lynch whoever's scummiest than try to lynch someone because they look kind've scummy and if they're green don't have a good role. If mafia have copycat, and you lynch wrong, they get a town role. If you lynch right, they get their own role back, which is better than them getting an additional role. On Targets: Of course we need to lower the number. What that doesn't mean, for me anyways, is that if something new is brought forward, we should just ignore it. By this, I don't mean more of the FOS spam, but actually well thought out and put together cases. So, we should look through all the potential lynch targets, and find maybe three that look the scummiest, or we can generate the best discussion on. Then, new cases can be evaluated as they are brought forward, and random vote spam can be discouraged, as it isn't even *good* pressure anyways. Of the top three picks right now, I'm going to be voting for Deconduo at the moment. He's been useless, spammy, and lurky. Incognito has been throwing around a lot of FOS, but I don't think that makes him scum, and Chaoser has been fairly inactive, with very generic posts, but gave an IRL reason for it, so I'd rather see what he has to say on Day 2 when he talks more and it's easier to get a read. translation: a) excuse that nobody cares about b) I said lynching vanilla would allow mafia to pick what role the Copy Cat gets. Vanilla is the definition of not having a role, whether you are vanilla town or mafia. I am arguing for lynching someone else than deconduo for that reason alone, but he is not a bad lynch: He is either town with no role to waste, or mafia with a high pick. My argument against lynching Scamp is also based on the risk of the copy cat. People say there is no copy cat because scum has better options, but there has been a scum copy cat in the other PYP's, so I think it's a valid concern. c) I know it's controversial that I'm saying you need to stop bringing in new targets constantly, and actually focus on the ones we have, but really, it serves no purpose. We had all yesterday to throw accusations around, now its time to reconcile. Chances are, some of the targets already brought up are fully legit. Why does everyone think they are smarter than everyone else? flamewheel there is no pressure in just one vote, albeit I admit it made node post. d) see above do you have two accounts or something? cause you're mimicing Barundar like word per word. | ||
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In large mafia games, I've found that mafia tend not to be involved in last minute bandwagons if it doesn't win them the game outright or something along those lines. Instead, they're content to plant their vote in some corner to avoid getting list checked or whatnot, and watch as town scrambles to and fro. They find it to be too risky to stick their necks out by doing some vote switcheroo at the last minute, and combined with some other thoughts-namely, GMarshal's willingness to take a vig hit tonight, flamewheel's already strong town vibes-leads me to think that looking at the last minute bandwagon on Kev, I'm pretty sure its a red herring. Role checks should still probably go out for everyone on that list that's also on the top 6 roles (flamewheel, me, etc.) but i think trying to look deeply into the day 1 bandwagon itself is a waste of time and roles. On the other hand, the people who DO tend to be mafia in those situations are the ones that cry "omg the bandwagon someone stop it." and then proceed to do nothing about it. like this person On May 18 2011 13:18 infinitestory wrote: ok wtf is this Incognito leads in lynch votes with less than 3 hours left in Day 1. Ace unvotes Incognito, switching to Radfield. Suddenly, 3 more votes on Kavdragon. I feel like this is suspicious, but it also reeks of WIFOM. or this person On May 18 2011 14:05 chaoser wrote: woah woah wtf @ switch from incognito to Kavdragon. or this person On May 18 2011 14:10 KillerSOS wrote: Wow, that was a quick swap to Kav. Makes me a bit nervous. Now obviously this isn't a scumtell by itself. So let's look at some other pieces of information. Like, the aftermath. People who are mafia tend to comment on how good their foresight was-when in fact, the only reason they had the foresight is because they know damn well who is mafia and who isn't. Someone like... On May 18 2011 14:13 KillerSOS wrote: Well that was unexpected. ..Not I was wrong about Kev, but it appears that his sacrifice was not in vain. ##FOS KillerSOS | ||
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On May 19 2011 14:44 infinitestory wrote: Can I get some opinions on my Incognito analysis? >_____> I feel like it got buried by a bunch of posts asking for analysis. infinitestory the main problem with your analysis is that it seems a little bit too perfect. Almost as it if was a bus attempt. I'm not sure why, but I get that vibe for some reason. Probably will make a more rigorous analysis later today. As for the day's events, well this is obviously to be expected. #1 and #2 get targeted, and one dies. Flamewheel has been giving out town vibes for me, and I've stated my opinion on that matter multiple times, and I don't think anyone has FOSd him just yet, so I think we can conclude that he was hit by a non-town role. Scamp had pretty much given away the fact that he was inventor, but I'm curious as to why nobody had provided medic protection to him. Either people are really that bad at this game, medics got wifomed, or some super special role did some shit. I don't think we can draw too many conclusions from this, but I would like to see how the accusations against Incognito and Baraundar end up. KillerSoS is still my FoS, especially with his typical risk adverse statements as Why would you share that you are king? That's a dangerous thing to tell us. .In any case, because I'm having writer's block, I'm opening up myself to peoples' requests. Give me something fishy and I'll see how I can work with it. | ||
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On May 19 2011 15:03 Ace wrote: If you're calling IS's post a bus attempt then you're accusing him of being Scum. Is that the angle you're playing Caller? i said i have the feeling its a bus attempt, kind of like the feeling you gave me last night, only this time it wasn't a total fantasy tldr im working on it | ||
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due to a variety of circumstances I've been away from the game. I've seen that we have a nice votelist and I'm curious why we're not using it to get two free kills and potentially secure the rest of the list. You should always clear the list. Always. That's why I suggest doing the following: We have Flamewheel (whom I'm pretty sure is town, with his past behavior, with him being shot and all(which I think makes sense given how there was only one death last night)), GMarshal (whom could be a tricky bastard, but I haven't seen his play style enough), Me, Node, Incognito, and Chezinu. Two of us are mafia. Best thing to do is to kill two people on that list. My commitment timewise has gotten lower than I would've liked, so I volunteer to have myself killed so you guys have more certainty on the rest of those people. Lynch me, or, given the time limit, it might be easier just to have Wiggles shoot me. Then you can kill Node or Incognito (personally, I suspect Incog more than Node, even with the nuke, as I smell a desperation bus) and we have a situation where we will know 100% if GMarshal is telling the truth or not. I see no reason for him to lie about there being more mafia on the list, so clearly if neither Incog/Node nor Chez is mafia then GMarshal should be killed tonight. If one of them is mafia, though, then you kill the other person. Two mafia easy, and makes whoever's still alive as safe townies. By getting rid of me we remove the uncertainty. Don't worry about losing my role, it's not a big deal to lose. TLDR: Kill Me, Kill Incog or Node. Might be easier just to have me king shot at this rate of voting, but whichever. Clears up list entirely. If neither Incog nor Chez are mafia, kill GMarshal tonight/tomorrow. Else, kill the other of Incog or Node that hasn't been killed yet. Either way, rest of list becomes clear and should be saturated with medic protection. And well if anybody is lying about their role you kill em. Lynch All Liars and all. Don't forget. | ||
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we have a list of people that we can both purge of mafia and clear There is at least 1 mafia, maybe two, on that list. If its 1 mafia, its either GMarshal, or Mafia + a frame. If its 2 mafia, GMarshal is almost certainly not mafia, because it'd be friggin stupid for mafia to create a situation where its 2/6 instead of 1/5. There is absolutely no reason for us not to get on this list. If none of Node, Incog, and Chez is mafia (well, in addition to me, ofc) either I'm the worst player in the history of the world or GMarshal is scum. Flamewheel gets pretty much cleared that way. If only one of them is scum, then obviously flamewheel is not clear. But if two fo them are scum, and this is by far my most likely feeling, given that mafia would not do something that bold this early, then we have a cleared list of Flamewheel and GMarshal. I'm perfectly willing to die to clear off two DT roles like that, or to snag a scum DT. I'm not sure why Node, Incog, and Chez (the latter of whom is recently smelling like shit) are all running around like headless chickens trying to pass the blame onto people not on a list with guaranteed mafia as well as potential clears. Unless, of course, they're scummy. Which I think they are. Why are people voting for KillerSoS? He's definitely scummy as shit as has been already pointed out, but he claimed Tracker. At the very least, we should let him run his mouth and see what he has to say, because we can milk him for information regardless of whether he's scummy or town. Besides, killing him doesn't tell us a single goddamn thing. If we kill scum, we should do so in a position where we can scoop up other scum in the bargain, not a lone wolf and then have to start from square one all over again. My commitment is still pretty shitty. Someone (I think Radfield) requested a chaoser analysis so I'm working on that right now, but real life jumped on me and I'm still struggling to deal with it. Voted Incog because we should be getting that list cleared up. We're in a position to clear people completely, and get rid of some mafia, so why aren't we using it? It'll be hard to get off all the votes on Incog right now as much as I would like to be lynched and Incog shot (to ensure my honesty), so King should use his shooting on me or Node. I don't know what role Node is, but I'm fairly expendable, and once we have a clear list we have guaranteed night actions. In fact, assuming my gut reads of flamewheel is right, and assuming GMarshal isn't lying, we have at least 1 cleared investigative role that can be saturated with protection (I refuse to believe there are no medic roles). | ||
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Chaoser's past few posts can basically be summed up as: a) fairly rigorous analysis of Foolishness's actions. + Show Spoiler + On May 20 2011 11:27 chaoser wrote: Where's your big posts like in XXXVII where you destroyed my mafia team? I misses it =[. But where is it? You talk about not wanting to speculate about what potential imba combos mafia might have, ask chenizu for his step 3, post 1 liners about nothing in particular, mostly commenting on various things while adding in no input of your own. I think someone mentioned this but this whole post is one big piece of fluff. You talk about blue hunting and not being preoccupied with roles but you go right back into talking about how everyone is talking about roles while doing no scumhunting of your own. You bitch at Incognito for "And you've got loads of analysis Mr "let's wait for blues to win us the game"?" while you do none yourself. You've been wishy washy even with your role talk, especially recently on the naming convention of the inventor and on whether inventor should claim or not, going from yes he should to I don't know. All you do when people address your non-scum hunting is to OMGUS them. Thanks to kita for pointing this out. After reading through foolishness' posts I can say he's playing nothing like how he did in XXXVII and he's been pretty anti-town. ##vote Foolishness + Show Spoiler + On May 20 2011 11:47 chaoser wrote: Yes. I shelve my suspicions of Incognito for now. Where's your scum hunting foolishness? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=218973¤tpage=27#522 This? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=218973¤tpage=27#526 This? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=218973¤tpage=40#783 This? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=218973¤tpage=47#923 This? How about you prove your own usefulness. A lot of the charges you level at Incognito you yourself are guilty of. How are you being useful? You said dec was obv green and that you wanted to help lynch a more obvious mafia but you don't try at all to push for incognito's lynch. You make offhand remarks and you show support for his lynch but you never make a real argument for it even though you're one of the main people pushing for it. Where's the Foolishness from XXXVII? You're a good townie but a horrible mafia. Show me how good you can be or it's light out yo. While his analysis definitely is valid, I am interested on how this was a complete about-face after the revelation of GMarshal's list. Now whether this was simply correlated with Incognito's and Foolishness's subsequent actions, or was just Mafia panicking to save their team, I'm not sure with just this information. His other posts then go: b) reversal back to accusations against Incognito c) withdrawal of previous accusations against Incognito to go against Foolishness d) reversal back to tunneling Incognito. I don't think this is the inconsistency that I tend to associate with Mafia, though-instead, this seems like the mentality of someone who has two suspects but can't get people to focus either of them properly. All in all, I have a leaning town read on him. The only thing that causes me to blink though is how after posting all that analysis after GMarshal's list he's suddenly quieted down and hid on the sidelines. Although I did that too but whatever. | ||
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I'd just like to point out the following things before we make any decisions. A) GMarshal found two mafia on the list. This makes it highly unlikely that he is mafia given Chezinu’s flip. Since I would flip town, he would pretty much be dooming himself for certain. B) We know that it's possible that there is a framer or weird godfather. C) Chezinu, mafia, is dead. So that leaves one possible mafia. D) Mafia has hit Flamewheel, Node, and maybe Incognito(?). They have purposefully shortened this list. If I were mafia, this would be guaranteeing my death. In fact, regardless of my alignment, this would be guaranteeing my death. conclusion: Somebody on that list was framed/alignment screwed with, and votecheck was faulty, causing me to look scummy. I don't have a strong role, no. But killing me today as opposed to yesterday is a terrible idea. Yesterday, I was open to letting myself be lynched, because I had anticipated that we would by process of elimination find the remaining mafia and then have a cleared list. Instead, most of the townies on the list are dead and now I'm a seemingly free "mafia" for town to bandwagon on and then lose. As it is, killing me will do absolutely nothing. I can see a perfectly run set-up on me actually. Back before roles, I had mentioned how I had no intention of following Radfield's list and instead would take the most troll role possible. Mafia knew that they can therefore snag CPR Doc and get a couple of free kills with it. They then put the CPR doc in the same votelist with me and frame someone on that list, knowing that Kavdragon was not mafia and therefore anyone on that list would be scummy. They then proceed to kill everybody on that list except for me and GMarshal, who is (and should still be) saturated with medic protection. Why would they kill everyone on that list? The answer is to make me a big target and then potentially threaten our lone votechecker's credibility. Once I die, and flip town, GMarshal is going to look like total shit, and our list that could have had potential clears is now all dead and scummy. Meanwhile mafia is laughing their asses off at how they managed to decimate the list of likely townies and have now put town back at square one. Rather than tunnel me and give mafia another free bandwagon, we should force mafia to do things and maybe slipup. I still offer myself up as a candidate to be lynched because I know some people won't rest until they have absolute certainty, but there are plenty more suspicious people going on that have built relations with each other that i think if broken could reveal a web of mafia operating behind our very back. Like look at the most recent check that GMarshal just did. Assuming he's not lying, there is one mafia in the incognito list from day 1. By process of elimination, since I know I'm not mafia and I'm pretty sure there's a frame, there are at least four mafia hiding in the other areas. I doubt more than one mafia would stick his nose out by putting his vote on a single person, so let's say instead there are at least 3 mafia in the other lists. That means that of these people: BARUNDAR (5): Radfield, bumatlarge, dreamflower, kitaman27, KillerSOS MR. WIGGLES (2): Kavdragon, tnkted there are at least 3 mafia. Kavdragon and KillerSOS are dead and both are town. We have 3 in 5 of the following as scum: Radfield, bumatlarge, dreamflower (Ziphh), kitaman27, tnkted Anybody look like potential suspects? Maybe? I'll write a detailed analysis about these guys in a bit, so even if you do decide to lynch me we'll have somewhere to start tonight and the days after. Also, don’t’ forget that there are only 16 players left. There are 6-1=5 mafia + moles + traitor(?). Let’s say for convenience sake there is 1 mole and 1 traitor, so its 9 against 7. If I die today, it’ll go to 8 against 7, and then mafia will WifoM with their night hit (more, if their mole was a vig or something) and win the game because our town KP will have absolutely no idea who to hit because we give them no information. In fact, it’s just as likely they’ll shoot town as mafia at that point. Whether town KP acts or not, unless they get stupendously lucky we will lose. Even if you doubt that I am town because of the framer, let’s say I AM mafia. I die, its 9 to 6, town KP can’t do anything because of the ambiguity because nothing will get cleared up, mafia use their hit(s), we now have what basically boils down to luckshot lynches. And hope that mafia doesn’t get the king lynch, which because the kingmaker will not know who is safe to give it to, results in our chance for victory being basically determined by coinflips, and unfavorable ones at that. My proposal is this: we instead go after a list that contains 3 out of 5 mafia. We lynch one of them today and then get town KP to hit that list. Let’s say town KP is 2 or so. We have a very high chance of getting at least two mafia with the combined 2 shots+ lynch (assuming vigi hits don’t overlap), which makes it 7 or 6 to 5, allowing us to have another night for votechecks and whatnot to come in, as well as another king lynch that we can use responsibly-either it is used on definite or very likely scum, or it outs mafia that can later be taken care of with KP. With my plan we are almost certainly guaranteed to change the result from 9 to 7 to 7 to 4. I was willing to sacrifice myself while we still had the bodies to do so. We don’t have any more bodies left. Lynch me and we lose, it’s that simple. Follow my plan, and we still have a chance to win. One more thing we need to do: We cannot afford any more split up votes. At this point split votes will cause Mafia to just spam at the last second, force a mislynch, and then proceed to win. We need to have one primary candidate that we all vote on. This causes two things with a votecheck: firstly, we get an accurate count of how many moles there are, and secondly, if there are inevitable stragglers we isolate them as well. | ||
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On May 23 2011 01:48 kitaman27 wrote: So you took the most troll role possible with the number 3 pick, while allowing the mafia to snag the CPR Doc? mmk. I suggest everyone read over this math. Apparently the assumption that 4 mafia were not on incog/kav implies 3 mafia were on barundar. There is absolutely no logic backing up this accusation. Furthermore, he completely omits all of the players who were single votes. Do they not count, or did you fuzzy math come to the conclusion that there must be 1 mafia in this list? This is garbage. lol, straw man. Mafia work in a very specific fashion: They do not want to stand out at all. Pretend that there were instead 5 candidates. They started with 6 mafia. Mafia would split their votes to minimize the effect that a vote check would have, or even vote analysis should some of them be found. Obviously they would leave some of it up to chance, but it is unlikely we would ever see more than 2 mafia vote for the same person if they can avoid it. So in this particular example, they would likely have one mafia on each candidate and another vote randomly scattered among them, preferably away from the eye of a votecheck by say, targeting someone with fewer votes. The human mind works in a curious way: when it encounters a whole bunch of categories, some instinct causes the brain to categorize all of the categories that are all by themselves or relatively insignificant as being in the same category. I'm sure that mafia recognized both this and the fact that being the only vote, while it would make them safer from votechecks, also makes them stand out for alignment and role checks. Thus, among all the people you quoted, I considered them as, essentially, another "category." So we have the 5 categories-4 candidates for lynching, as well as a general "others" category. There are 6 mafia. Mafia would split their votes accordingly. So there's one mafia on Incognito list, 1 on Kavdragon List. I think it's perfectly reasonable to assume that there's only one in the "others" category as well. That kind of narrows it down, doesn't it? You cleverly tried to hide the fact that I took two different candidates as including 3 and removed dead people to result in 3 in 5. Instead, you generalized my argument as "oh there are 3 mafia on one list" which I agree is pretty unlikely. That's not what happened, though, isn't it? its 3 mafia out of 2 lists, and they have kindly whittled it down fro 7 to 5 people. Tntked obviously stands out, and I'm curious as to why you'd cover up for him in your argument by totally ignoring him from consideration. In fact this whole argument of yours seems rather fishy. You seemed perfectly content to sheep your way into voting and only said something when you felt yourself at risk, didn't you? Your entire post history the past day has been basically just hammering on me, and prior to that you've contributed nothing at all and instead speculated about the set up over and over again. On May 21 2011 23:16 kitaman27 wrote: First things first. tnkted I'm assuming you're going to claim you didn't choose to select the busdriver? Also, can we get a confirmation that this isn't how the politician works and in a hypothetical situation that it was a bus, would it carry over into the night cycle? As for Node's inventor item, do we agree that he should provide GMarshal a protective item? If GMarshal ends up dead, then we know to who to lynch, unless anyone sees a flaw in the plan? Chezinu should be the target of night shots. and On May 22 2011 07:59 kitaman27 wrote: Right, take the side of the guy pretending to be the village idiot. By the way, are you agreeing to protect GMarshal tonight or are you going to keep town in the dark and do your own thing like the last inventor? and On May 22 2011 13:26 kitaman27 wrote: 3 kp? Was one of them a town vig? On May 21 2011 10:23 kitaman27 wrote: *Pokes Wiggles Shot within the hour? If Ver isn't around then we might have to wait longer than expected. All entirely useless posts that simply speculate about the setup and mechanics of the game. You do make one very general FoS about random players and you do make some rather vague speculation posts about me and Foolishness but that's about it. Instead of making more insights like you did during the earlier days you've been content to go MHM HMMMMM and set up a position to sheeple people into voting for me based on a list thats definitely been tampered with. Your whole mindset is all about safe play. Only vote for "certainties," the roles that people have are certainties, create ways to avoid responsibility, never make any bold moves, just sit back and relax. We should use the certainty of roles to play the game, so player x you do this, player y, do that. That's all good and all, but that's scum play. To top it off, you respond to my argument that I'm pretty sure nailed you and the rest of your scummy team by making a straw man argument and then criticizing it. No shit my argument looks weak when you put it like that, anybody would agree its a weak argument the way you just shoved out most of the information and reasoning and content. On top of that lo and behold you're in a very uncomfortable position here. Three of you have been found, and it's obvious that you'd start to panic. The easiest thing to do is to get people to ignore him by trying to get people to sheeple around. You guys know you only need this mislynch on me to win, and are trying to obscure that as much as possible by using the illusion of "certainty" and criticizing my plan for not being "certain" and for being flawed for that very reason, only you take it to new ends by totally rewriting it. You guys feel so safe behind your little bastion of low risk content to hide behind the will of the "town" without actually doing anything. Well, the pool's closed. And guess why. ##FoS Kitaman27 | ||
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I can almost guarantee something like this will transpire if I roleclaim. Me: I am (my role). somescum: NO I CC JOOOO (mass dispute, I get lynched because I'm on the list and its the "safe thing to do.") mislynch, we lose If I claim I'm fairly certain this will happen and we will have gotten nowhere. On May 23 2011 03:48 kitaman27 wrote: Why is this a pretty reasonable assumption? You're treating it as fact, when it is clearly speculation. Did you read what I said at all? I didn't cleverly hide anything. I pointed out you created a list of your own choosing and said "look 3 mafia here!" Apparently the assumption that 4 mafia were not on incog/kav implies 3 mafia were on barundar. Its not 3 mafia on barundar, its 3 mafia out of 7 (two vote lists). you definitely hid this line of reasoning. Are you trying to say these posts are scummy? I see a vig shot declaration on Chez, pointing out that tnkted was thinking about selecting the bus driver role, and pressuring Node to protect GMarshal in order to scare off a mafia hit. Yes these are scummy. You didn't do anything here. All you did here was nothing. Absolutely nothing. You make no commitments, you play super safe, you just say "Oh do xyz that should be obvious to anybody thats been even remotely paying attention to the game." That's not contributing, that's just satisfying activity levels. You don't contribute, you just say common sense matter of fact things and ask questions involving roles and setup. Wow, you nailed the entire scum team? Bravo. I nailed at least you and your friends. | ||
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kita you now look like shit. Tnkted don't seem like the type to get framed so we should get him. We kill the sure mafia today, instead of this bullcrap last person on the quite fucked-with list nonsense. its quite possibly lylo so we should kill surefire mafia always. anyways now kita see what I mean when I got your entire goddamn team? regarding role reveal, I'd really prefer not to reveal my role right now, but I will do so if I get more demands for it. | ||
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Radfield, bumatlarge, dreamflower (Ziphh), kitaman27, tnkted And anyone look at the bottom of the lynch vote? killersos: 10 flamewheel meapak kurumi deconduo radfield eiii incognito mr. wiggles tnkted kitaman Anyone smell a mafia last ditch attempt? More importantly, because only 2 of those 4 are mafia, that leaves... bumatlarge... all by himself. But that doesn't seem right, because that guy smells like town and has smelled like town all game. So I'm pretty sure he's not mafia. Conclusion? There is a godfather, and he is one of these four people: Radfield, dreamflower (Ziphh), kitaman27, tnkted And Radfield, even though I'd love to say you're clear because of your bulletproof, that shit ain't gonna fly if you the godfather. If I were the godfather I'd pick bulletproof. Know why? Because I'll never get hit. Who would toss a night hit on a bulletproof? This game is all about implications, yo. Tnkted certain mafia, his buddy kitaman going down with him tonight or tomorrow, and then we got a godfather to pop to prove my innocence. Oh man I so excited. Man I thought we were about to lose and I got a bit sad, but now I smell blood. And it got me so excited for the weekend. | ||
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LOOK AT THIS SCUM POS TRYING TO DEFEND HIS BEST FRIEND he knows that once tnktd flips that he done. He real done. kill kita tonight pls | ||
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On May 23 2011 04:58 kitaman27 wrote: Then how did deconduo know that Radfield selected bulletproof as his godfather role? Are you implying that they are scum buddies or was that just a lucky guess? This accusation is silly. why not you silly man you're just digging yourself deeper and deeper. why don't you take a line from your own handbook and sleep with the fishes, scum | ||
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i'm not gonna roleclaim to scum. Don't need to give you guys more information than you already have. Once we kill you guys off and we start boiling down to the finish then I'll happily give up my last vestiges of information. Or you guys could, you know, hit me tonight. Would save me the trouble of proving my own damn innocence. | ||
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I figured this was a risky tactic. But as they say, the villain always returns to the scene of the crime. My lynch looked so certain, didn't it, Chaoser. I'm sure once I would have flipped town he would have tried to claim that it was once again that same framer/gf's fault, the one that had set me up on the votelist. Well, I'm just letting you know right now that there's no way I'm letting him get away. Now that we have such a huge advantage in numbers I once again see nothing wrong with sacrificing myself to take down someone with me. Don't let chaoser get away. Just to prove my point: Look at the police radio: Person A: InfiniteStory- Same Person B: tnkted is mafia Person C: Gmarshal is Mafia 2 DT Person D: Incognito day 1 votelist: 1/5 Person E: KillerSOS day 2 votelist: 2/10 Now look at the Modern Detective. You have the ability to make night investigations. Once per night phase, you may PM me to ask for the role and alignment of one player. See something wrong here? Not one of the results back gave both role and alignment-either just alignment, or just role. Nobody used the Modern DT's power two nights ago. If he was town, there would be no reason for him not to use the Modern DT's power. In other words, chaoser is lying about his role in order to look good to the town, and to hit an easy mislynch and then later claim that I was framed/godfathered. SHENANIGANS. Obviously I've been acting very scummy recently. It was all to let some kind of a major fuckup occur. The kind of fuckup that this 100% lying mafiaso made, a critical slipup in what otherwise would've made town's last manhunt very, very difficult. And before you say anything about him being cleared on a votelist, has it not occured to you that there is someone still around that can fuck with people's alignments? Or, for that matter, he could even be the mole. Either way, chaoser is not only not confirmed, but is definite 100% lying mafiaso. That is all I have to say. | ||
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On May 25 2011 17:29 bumatlarge wrote: And I used KP, so I couldn't be GF, and there is additionally uncounted for KP. Is chaoser a vig/GF? I don't see that role listed here. regarding that: Vigilante You have the ability to kill up to two people of your choice at any night phase in the game. You cannot use both at once and may wait to use them whenever you feel like. If your hits ever overlap with a mafia hit I will cancel it and notify you the following day and you will be able to use it again. If your hit overlaps with another Vigilante I will cancel all other hits but the first one and will notify anyone who's hit didn't go through the following day and you will be able to use it again. You will not be told if it was mafia or murderer that caused your hit to be canceled. | ||
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town played like shit i got demoralized night 2 listchecks are op because they are so damn unforgiving for mafia | ||
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