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TL Mafia XXXIX - Page 7

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 11 2011 13:27 GMT
#1656
ANALYSIS: Why orgolove is Scum

____________
Early posts.
+ Show Spoiler +
Defending confirmed scum
On May 04 2011 14:46 orgolove wrote:
Is Irish a new player? Could make sense if he's new - he wouldn't want his first game end so quickly.

Diverting attention to Town
On page 35, after EM posted his excelsheet, orgolove posted that the ones who looked suspicious to him was EM, chaoser, kurumi (and DropBear), two of which are confirmed [green]Town[green].
On May 06 2011 04:15 orgolove wrote:
Great post. We need to look at the people who've been pointing fingers indiscriminately, like 5, 18, and 22.
On May 06 2011 04:20 orgolove wrote:
Oh and 17 too.

Trying to look helpfull
Nothing came of this, even though the spreadsheet could be easily recreated.
On May 06 2011 04:23 orgolove wrote:
Can you give me this spreadsheet? I may have some pattern recognition software that I might be able to gather, and coordinate the time of the accusatory posts with the contents to see if a particular group of players (reds) were on-line and accusing the same person at around the same point in time.
____________
Tunneling on helpfull Town-leader, redtooth
+ Show Spoiler +
Following are a few posts that implicate redtooth as scum, 9 of them.
After the first 5 posts against redtooth, he suddenly becomes convinced redtooth is Town, but quickly after, he posts 4 times urging a lynch on redtooth, including a ##Vote.
On May 07 2011 09:30 orgolove wrote:He's really putting serious effort into his posts, and he's trying to trick things without being afraid of being revealed. I can't detect any hint of red-ness (pun intended).


Trying to save Amber by lynching a probable Town as an information-lynch
On May 08 2011 09:11 orgolove wrote:
I really think redtooth either needs to be checked by a dt or be lynched asap. He's been acting plenty scummy enough, and his kills will give us plenty of information both on Amber and others involved in this dispute.

A pre-night posting of useless information
+ Show Spoiler +
During Night 2, just 15minutes before the daypost. It didn´t show us anything that the voting thread didn´t allready show. Seriously, the post contained NO usefull data.
On May 10 2011 11:47 orgolove wrote:
This is in progress - I'm posting this just in case I'm killed in the night (though not likely)

[url blocked]

The excel file contains the vote time and target for the past 2 days. It's quite interesting. I'll post a full analysis after day breaks and I have a few more identifiers.
____________
First attempt at analysis, during day 3.
+ Show Spoiler +

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=216644&currentpage=74#1473
The analysis was full of conditions that turn Cthsazsas from +1 to -17, conditions easily tweaked, added or removed to get the desired outcome, or even asking his scumbuddies to vote in a way that makes them look Town to his conditions. This is also referenced later to try and get DropBear lynched. He sends out his FoS, summarized in the next spoiler

FoS and votes
+ Show Spoiler +
Focused accusations. Has been trying to get these lynched since Day 1
FoS DropBear 6
FoS Ilovejonn 2
FoS AirbladeOrange 2
FoS VarpuliS 2
FoS Eternalmisfit 2
FoS redtooth 9

Votes on helpfull Town-leaders, Town, and one post on Amber, which he milked for Town-points.
Votes!
Day 1
##Vote Redtooth ##unvote
##Vote: Chaoser ##unvote
##Vote: Kurumi

Day 2
##Vote: Redtooth ##unvote
##vote: Amber[Light] -(tieing Amber with Cthsazsa, for which his analysis makes him more Town)

Day 3
##Vote: ilovejonn
____________
His latest post, which was 27h ago. He´s confident that Town will mislynch, so he´s been lurking ever since, there´s no need to interfere.
On May 10 2011 18:39 orgolove wrote:
Hm. All right - I won't claim my effort as of now is 100% flawless, as after all, it's only dealing with two days worth of data.

It's really late - good night.
____________
Conclusion
+ Show Spoiler +
Unhelpfull analysis, the few times he gives it, voting on Confirmed Town or in a way that is used only to gain Town-credit. Defends Irish and Amber. Lurks now that noone is thinking about lynching him. Scum.
:3
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 11 2011 14:11 GMT
#1664
On May 11 2011 22:33 chaos13 wrote:
Forumite, I haven't trusted you for a while in this game. Your analysis has seemed a bit strange from the start. Doesn't mean that you're scum, as I haven't noticed a good scum read from you yet, but you're definitely iffy with me.
Yeah, I remember your last FoS on me, it wasn´t very strong so i guess most of it was undefineable suspicions. I´m a bit erratic, and sometimes tunnel, so i guess that´s part of it.

On May 11 2011 22:37 sandroba wrote:
Easy there forumite. There's a chance orgolove is scum indeed, but he was one of the first to vote for Amber on his lynch. This gets him +towine points in my eyes. There are much more obvious scum waiting to be lynched. We can save the discussion on orgolove for tomorrow.
I just wanted him considered. He´s been commented as scummy by a few, posted an analysis that didn´t help, and now dropped out. I want to make sure we don´t forget about him, even though I don´t have any high hopes on lynching him today.
:3
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 11 2011 14:28 GMT
#1667
On May 11 2011 23:21 sandroba wrote:I would like an explanation on your sleep schedule aswel. 14:40 you just woke up, you will read the thread and comment. Where is the comment? 23:05 you just woke up again????
I lol´d
:3
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 11 2011 20:15 GMT
#1680
EternalMistfit: 7
Sinani206: 4
Ilovejonn: 2
:3
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 11 2011 20:46 GMT
#1684
NOW I know who ilj is. I saw it way earlier in the thread but never grasped.

Indeed, I´m worrying about how many are going for Sinani, on the other hand it can´t be all scum, and we can´t rule out that scum are hiding outside the vote entirely. There are 6 players who haven´t voted yet, and 2 more who haven´t taken a stand on those two.
:3
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 11 2011 21:17 GMT
#1690
On May 12 2011 05:49 Varpulis wrote:@forumite why are you concerned that people are voting for Sinani?
The vote is strongly in favor of EM, so there is a possibility of that they are going for EM to save sinani. It´s still a few left to vote, so my panic is probably premature.

On May 12 2011 05:56 sandroba wrote:
Well, none of my prime suspects except for sinani are on the EM wagon. Plus there's pretty solid evidence EM is scum.
If somehow EM flips green I will see things in a different light.
Please don´t tell them that.

On May 12 2011 05:58 kitaman27 wrote:
It's not an OMGUS vote when your life is at stake. Regardless of whether Sinani is scum or town, it makes sense for his vote to be on EM unless he was going to push a third candidate.
True, true.
:3
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 11 2011 21:52 GMT
#1693
On May 12 2011 06:40 Varpulis wrote:
Fine, it's not OMGUS. It's still joining a bandwagon without giving a real reason. "There's some evidence and stuff" is not a reason, at least not a good one.
None of them had a really good reason to vote for the other, except "better you than me".

EM said "I´ll vote for sinani206 unless I come back before night"
sinani206 said "It looks like there is most evidence on EM"
:3
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 11 2011 21:54 GMT
#1694
On May 12 2011 06:50 sandroba wrote:
@Forumite Rest assured I'm not telling them everything. I have 3 pages of stuff written with various possible scenarios =)
=)
Good to hear.
:3
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 11 2011 23:47 GMT
#1705
@EternalMisfit
Thank you for posting your opinions, and reposting the analysis. Solid read, especially who you think is what. Few (including me) come out with things like that. I´m getting more of a Town read from you than sinani206, so I´m keeping my vote on him.
:3
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 11 2011 23:51 GMT
#1706
Eternalmisfit: 6
sinani206: 6

It´s a close lynch, but still many left.
:3
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 11 2011 23:55 GMT
#1707
Players who haven´t voted yet:
jaminz
Conversion
elmizzt
Mig
:3
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 12 2011 00:48 GMT
#1722
I´d prefer if we just ignored the role-claim and focus on EMs posts instead.
:3
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 12 2011 01:35 GMT
#1738
@Kenpachi
If you have to choose between sinani and EM, whom do you choose? I´m not telling you to vote, I just want your opinion.
:3
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 12 2011 02:17 GMT
#1749
That voting thread must be defective, crush it and make a new one.
:3
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 12 2011 02:20 GMT
#1751
On May 12 2011 11:18 GMarshal wrote:##Pardon: Node

Not today. I am the mafia pardoner, and I cannot be lynched!
Where´s the Planar Dragon when we need it?
:3
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 12 2011 02:33 GMT
#1755
Who knows? We got Irish through a modkill. It´s too random though, with bad luck on a modkill and a mislynch and we´re almost at LYLO.
:3
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 12 2011 02:40 GMT
#1757
Eternalmisfit: 8
sinani206: 7
:3
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 12 2011 02:42 GMT
#1758
jaminz, it´s not a matter if EM is scummy, but if he´s MORE scummy than sinani206. Do you think so?
:3
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 12 2011 02:45 GMT
#1759
sinani206 voted for Kurumi, and Kevconsim, a confirmed Town and an extreme lurker that noone can get a read of. First to conform, second to be invisible. Don´t you think that´s scummy?
:3
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 12 2011 02:48 GMT
#1761
Or he´s the scum that doesn´t make any noise, thereby surviving. sinani206 is not helping Town at all with his weak posting.
:3
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