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On May 12 2011 13:30 orgolove wrote:
And yet you guys would rather listen to ineffective and at best circumstantial evidence without looking at hard data.
Dude, EM was on Kurumi day 1. He was on Cthazsa instead of Amber[Light] Day 2, the switched late. Pretty sure that's why people were looking at voting for him. Plus EM was on chaoser's list of suspects and chaoser got 3 mafia in one day (if you include Irish_Punk13).
Your analysis had EM at 2.5 and sinani at 1.5, both middle of the table. You admit it wouldn't have caught GGQ.
On May 10 2011 16:54 orgolove wrote:
Of course, this process isn't completely infallible. For instance, I probably would not have caught GGQ with this method, as he voted for cthsazsa just once during the second day. This also shows the most important flaw of this method - lack of data. The more data I have, the more accurate I can get.
You have more data to be accurate now, the EM lynch. Yet now you don't want to analyse it.
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The posts I can find about ilovejonn mentioning orgolove are here. There are 4 in total, 1 on day 1 and 3 on day 3.
First one on day 1.
On May 05 2011 07:03 ilovejonn wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2011 06:36 orgolove wrote:
So we're just letting people divert our attention from the actual scum posts. Redtooth has shown clear signs of scummy behavior, both in his lies, his attempts to turn this discussion into useless pages about "experience," his lies, his inane essay posts without any real substance, his lies, his lies, and his lies.
And we're just letting the suspicion go just like that? I think this is true. I don't know why he would ask questions such as what was your mafia experience. Sure it generates discussion but is any of that really relevant to scum hunting? Unless this is another one of his plans to draw out responses..
He is agreeing with orgolove about his suspicion of redtooth. This post is interesting for another reason. I would like to refer everyone to Kitaman27's analysis of Amber's posts on Day 3. The key point here is that Amber was trying to tie himself to redtooth. Orgolove on the other hand is attacking redtooth.
3 posts on day 3.
The first one casts doubt upon his analysis, which incidentally had ilovejonn as the second ranked target.
On May 11 2011 03:17 ilovejonn wrote:
Hold up everyone. You guys still think I am scum just because of a) I did not vote switch to Amber, and b) I was on the bad end of the lynches? Did I not already say I was going to be out the whole day on Mother's day? I cannot believe you guys would have missed that. Even if chaoser claimed his DT earlier in the day I would not have seen his claim, and his claim was actually near the end of the day cycle! I'd also like to hear what the numbers meant on orgolove's stat thing. 0.5 in b, 3 in g, 5 in j. I read somewhere people got - points just because they vote switched to Amber? Did you not consider the circumstance where I could not have gotten internet access that day because I was out? And just because people vote switched to Amber does NOT mean they are town, it could have simply been a bussing of a team mate.
Second one, accuses orgolove of being godfather
On May 11 2011 03:52 ilovejonn wrote:
Wow can you guys not read only one part of a sentence? I am basically role claiming there hello? It's fine if you don't believe you can go ahead and vote for me, but I'd rather not have us mislynch.
If there are still veterans in the mafia, my GF suspects are redtooth and orgolove. If there are only new players in the mafia team left it could be anyone really.
He's been suspicious of redtooth before, as noted in the quote from day 1. His first suspicion of orgolove comes after the spreadsheet.
This is the last one, on page 81.
On May 11 2011 04:25 ilovejonn wrote:
redtooth because he has been rather quiet after being wrong and going against chaoser. He just posted before but he voted for himself in case he can't vote. I'm willing to let that go because I know real life circumstances can influence how you play, but I'm still suspicious. orgolove because I don't recall seeing him doing any real behavioral analysis besides putting out that spreadsheet. This is of course assuming the GF is a veteran, that's why I chose those too. Like I said if the GF is not a veteran, then it could be anyone really.
While he has talked about you orgolove, that isn't 3 out of 4. It's 3 out of 15 on day 3. On the other hand, he hasn't attacked orgolove at all until he was brought up as mafia by orgolove himself.
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Oh wait, orgolove I thought you meant 3 out of 4 posts. You meant 3 of the 4 on your scum list lol.
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Shit's gotten quiet all of a sudden.
Orgolove. You painted me as the biggest target, but you voted ilovejonn.
On May 10 2011 18:04 orgolove wrote:Show nested quote +On May 10 2011 17:59 DropBear wrote:
Last thing. Whoever the Vigilante is who shot GGQ, you need to claim. You need to do it now. The only way to doubt you if you claim is if someone else does too, which narrows down another mafia. We have another confirmed townie when you claim. If you really are a green, it does us no good to fall silent. Explain your thought process. Give us a reason to not vote for you. Come on man.
I'm assuming I did enough to make you feel ok about me, so you vote ilovejonn who is second on your list. You don't vote for either sinani206 or EM. Neither did you defend them actively (i.e. by name), other than your list which had them in the middle. Is it the case that you were away for most of the day and just didn't have time to defend them and got back to your computer half an hour after the lynch? And this:
On May 12 2011 13:15 orgolove wrote:
Sure. Lynch me -_- I really don't care anymore.
is because you're angry at being ignored?
You've been on the ban list twice before. It makes sense if you are angry because noone listened to you and you've got a history of lashing out.
My big backlash against you has been because I've been at the top of your list, because I suspected you before and lastly because I don't like being told I'm a stupid noob, even if it's true.
After looking through ilovejonn's posts about you and the fact that 3 of your 4 have completely rubbished what you said, I'm listening to you again. Please update the spreadsheet.
I'll echo what you said to me. If you are green, it does us no good to fall silent.
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LOOOOOOL ok I'm absolutely convinced now. Huge post coming just before daybreak
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I'm probably unlikely to get killed tonight, I've been wrong way too many times. But just in case, here goes. This may change depending on who dies tonight.
+ Show Spoiler [Lists of doom from chaoser, orgolove a…] +Chaoser's list of doom: On May 09 2011 12:12 chaoser wrote:Show nested quote +On May 09 2011 08:50 GMarshal wrote:
Cthsazsa (10)
Conversion
redtooth
Varpulis
ilovejonn
Forumite
Lyter
kitaman27
GGQ
AO
Eternalmisfit
Amber[light] (6)
chaoser
sandroba
chaos13
Kenpachi
Mig
orgolove
And also Sinani Chaoser's Mafia List: IrishAmbersinani ilovejohn GGQ EternalMisfit I will explain why each of them are as such He actually forgot me. I was on the Cthazsa train as well, I voted late in defense of Amber. Orgolove's list of doom On May 12 2011 12:47 orgolove wrote:Sure. My list of suspects remains the same. - DropBear
- ilovejonn
- AirbladeOrange
- Varpulis
Kita's list of doom On May 11 2011 12:00 kitaman27 wrote:
Here are my two preferred lynch candidates for today. I apologize for the amount of quotes, but I think they are necessary to support my main points.
Ilovejohn
Conclusion: Scum
jaminz
My prime godfather suspect
Conclusion: Godfather
The new information is the people who voted for EternalMisfit to die:
On May 12 2011 12:07 Node wrote:
FINAL Vote Tally Day 3:
EternalMisfit (8)
sandroba
ilovejonn
Cthsazsa
Impervious
AirbladeOrange
sinani206
Mig
jaminz
Note that EternalMisfit was the first player to receive the majority.
ilovejonn voted for Kurumi, Cthazsa and EternalMisfit. Someone else did too, someone who hasn't been brought up much at all. He is on chaoser and orgolove's lists of doom. He's been lurking like crazy.
AIRBLADEORANGE
His vote made it 6-4 in favour of EM. He also voted Kurumi and was on Cthazsa before switching after chaoser's DT claim.
He has 29 posts so far. His posts include:
Attacking chaoser while defending Irish_Punk13
Advocates lynching of townies
Defense of Kurumi
Immediately after, attack on Kurumi once Irish_Punk13 calls him out.
Defense of Jaminz. Also he tries to tie Kurumi and Irish_Punk13 together. The post doesn't say all that much more.
On May 05 2011 11:59 AirbladeOrange wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2011 11:09 jaminz wrote:On May 05 2011 11:00 KillerSOS wrote:On May 05 2011 10:50 ilovejonn wrote:On May 05 2011 10:45 KillerSOS wrote:
Guess I fall into "doesn't stand out"
Success? >_> ?? Your posts don't hold a lot of value really. I consider myself an invisible poster but I don't spam the thread with useless wifom like what you did here. What do you mean success? You like to not stand out because you are scum? Killer FOS How could standing out possibly be a good thing? Its only going to get you lynched or killed by the mafia.Nice play on my name btw, but I would prefer Killer SOSAlso my whorish posting can be somewhat explained by my lack of interest in working on my paper, therefore I am obsessively F5'ing the thread. I'll be up all night finishing anyways... Wow......this is such a dumb thing to say. You're essentially saying that its good not to say anything that could possibly make people (either mafia or town) look at you. You realize that the only way to find mafia is to do analysis, and that in doing analysis you're going to bring attention to yourself. I don't understand how you can make this comment and expect it to be a good explanation for your posting habits. This is insane I think this is a really good point. Jaminz, you are playing differently than last game but I think it's a good different.I believe Chaoser to be town, he is doing a great job of encouraging discussion and taking stands and demanding responses. This is very important for town as I learned last game. Be bold and make the mafia scared. It's okay for town to die as long as they mafia leave clues behind. Clues are much easier to decipher later in the game when you figure out who they are voting for and pressuring and who they bandwagon against. I'm still voting for Kurumi. His type of posting just does not seem pro town. We need to stay on task, clear up and back up what we say, and stay focused on killing people who are likely mafia. If he flips red, I am inclined to take out Irish guy next because they seem like a pair. I think it was Chaoser that even pointed out the times they posted were within minutes of each other.And as always, if anyone wants me to clarify anything I said or wants my opinion on something please ask.
Saying chaoser is town for the same reasons he said he was suspicious before?
Once again, ties Kurumi and Irish together.
On May 06 2011 04:20 AirbladeOrange wrote:
I'm sticking with Kurumi. If he flips red then I will be on Irish next. Kurumi's posts are not getting any better or helping his situation at all. It is a mafia tactic to confuse and be crazy in the beginning. That's not a good strategy.
I think Chaoser is town and I also believe Redtooth could be mafia. I was not convinced by his last big post. How is Irish an obvious townie? I just don't see that point at all.
ties irish and kurumi again. That's three times now.
Points out how we should look at people, but doesn't do it himself. Airblade provides absolutely no analysis except for Cthazsa.
This post scares the shit out of me:
On May 06 2011 07:00 AirbladeOrange wrote:
Please don't use any vigilante actions now. It's way too soon without having much to go on. These percentages don't really mean anything and anyone advocating the use of our blue roles at this point is not having the town's best interests in mind.
Actively encouraging blue roles not to act? Note that he doesn't just advocate vigis not shooting but any blue role being used.
Defense of ilovejonn
On May 06 2011 13:58 AirbladeOrange wrote:
I remember ilovejonn being mostly a lurker in the last mafia game providing no real analysis. Why is he suspicious this game when he was acting the same way last game and was town?
This post I don't understand at all. Attacking Conversion for also attacking Cthazsa?
On May 07 2011 14:43 AirbladeOrange wrote:
Conversion, I'm beginning to think more and more that Cthsazsa is mafia too, but I think you're going about calling him out in a way too aggressive way.
I'm still suspicious of Redtooth but I think there is not enough to go on now and there are better candidates, especially Cthsazsa. I'm gonna look up his posts soon and post something on it.
Arguments against Cthsazsa
Next are two quote regarding Amber. He says that Amber is a good lynch but doesn't give a reason. He also encourages people to split the vote up as much as possible?
On May 08 2011 06:54 AirbladeOrange wrote:
Amber is in my top 5 suspects right now. I got Amber, Cthsazsa, Irish, Mig, and Redtooth in no particular order.
Splitting the vote between several people I agree does the town little good, but at the same time not doing so could just be sheeping, making it easier for mafia to blend in. I'm open to suggestions as to how to do this.
Another post about lynching Amber
On May 08 2011 17:16 AirbladeOrange wrote:
I'm good if town wants Amber and Cthsazsa as two of the lynch candidates. Irish will probably be modkilled.
Final reasoning for Cthazsa over Amber.
Comment on roleblocking - makes GGQ look suspicious. This kind of goes against the AO is mafia theory, but on the other hand at this point GGQ was looking bad and it could have been a play for town points.
But tries to get people to ignore chaoser?
Attack on Mig
Attack on orgolove's analysis
Only reasoning for voting EternalMisfit.
He only had the 2 posts on day 3.
Lastly, I defended the hell out of Airblade on day 1. It was kind of dropped after that, AO hasn't been looked at since.
Airblade's actions have been:
- Attack chaoser
- Advocate lynch of townie
- Defend Irish_Punk13, then turn around and attack him again. Desperately trying to tie him to Kurumi seems to me as an attempt to shield him once Kurumi flips.
- Defend Jaminz
- Defend ilovejonn
- Advocate not using blue roles
- Pretend to focus on who voted for Kurumi and never does anything about it.
- Attack Cthazsa. This is the only analysis he has provided all game.
- Attacks Conversion for also going after Cthsazsa?
- Attack Amber but not vote for him.
- Advocate splitting the vote up as much as possible.
- Attack Mig, who voted early for Amber to die.
- Switch his vote to Amber after Chaoser's roleclaim.
- Make GGQ look suspicious.
- Not bring up sinani206 or ilovejonn at all day 3 and vote EM.
- Lastly, just before Day 4, pushing for sinani206.
On May 13 2011 11:32 AirbladeOrange wrote:
Is anyone against lynching Sinani assuming nothing crazy happens before then?
I'd also like to refer to ilovejonn's analysis of EternalMisfit. Note that it DIRECTLY defends AirbladeOrange. EternalMisfit provided an analysis of AO on Day 1 which ilovejonn is attacking.
CONCLUSION
I'm feeling both ilovejonn and AirbladeOrange are scumbuddies. I am however slightly confused about the interactions between Irish_Punk13 and AO and then AO's posts about wanting to lynch Amber, plus the post making GGQ look suss.
Please discuss! Sinani is also on the table too but I'm starting to think he isn't mafia now.
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Kita, while I am unsure on Jaminz, note in my analysis that AO defends Jaminz. If you are right about him being GF, it makes sense.
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And with that, my vote goes to ilovejonn.
When he flips red, I will vote for AirbladeOrange next.
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On May 13 2011 12:09 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 13 2011 12:02 DropBear wrote:
Kita, while I am unsure on Jaminz, note in my analysis that AO defends Jaminz. If you are right about him being GF, it makes sense. Why push those two rather than sinani? What changed your mind that he isn't mafia anymore?
The fact that AirbladeOrange posted, about half an hour before the daybreak, that we should lynch sinani206 despite not bringing him up at all previously. ilovejonn is the other major candidate and AO is completely ignoring that possibility.
Remember that sinani206 is also in his first game.
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I missed a relevant post AO made about Conversion.
On May 05 2011 12:04 AirbladeOrange wrote:
For what it's worth, I was mafia last game and it was really easy to tunnel conversion and it even made him make some posting mistakes. He is new and in the other game I played with him he didn't contribute too much.
Sorry for tunneling you last game conversion! It was the act of a desperate team.
He then does this:
On May 07 2011 14:43 AirbladeOrange wrote:
Conversion, I'm beginning to think more and more that Cthsazsa is mafia too, but I think you're going about calling him out in a way too aggressive way.
I'm still suspicious of Redtooth but I think there is not enough to go on now and there are better candidates, especially Cthsazsa. I'm gonna look up his posts soon and post something on it.
Pretty sure that's putting doubt on Conversion, just like he and the rest of the mafia team did last game. I know we did that last game because I was mafia with AO last game.
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On May 13 2011 12:10 jaminz wrote:Kita, I assume you meant to quote DropBear's other post? This one: Show nested quote +On May 13 2011 12:05 DropBear wrote:
And with that, my vote goes to ilovejonn.
When he flips red, I will vote for AirbladeOrange next.
And no jaminz, I'm pretty sure he was looking at the other post. Derailment much?
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On May 13 2011 13:16 Conversion wrote:
Hey guys. I know I'm not really helping town by being really quiet and voting for myself.
Is kenpachi pretty much confirmed townie from his vig claim?
Yes he is. Noone disputed it and there's no other possible way for GGQ to have died.
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Sinani206, you right now need to get in here and explain yourself. You are very obviously a target today. You are probably going to be lynched unless you stand up.
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On May 13 2011 22:32 chaos13 wrote:
So why would they have killed Sandroba and Cthasza? Just to get rid of two of the players we were sure were town aligned?
For today at least I'm voting Sinani206, unless a better candidate pops up.
Because Sandroba and Cthasza were confirmed innocents. Everyone else has had some doubt put on them at some stage.
AO has not given a reason for voting for sinani206.
Sinani has not defended himself yet.
Impervious if you have doubts, don't vote him.
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On May 13 2011 23:06 chaos13 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 13 2011 22:40 Impervious wrote:
I'm still confused about Jackal's death though. I mean, if the plan was to use his death to misdirect us, nobody actually tried to do that, and one of the best candidates for a misdirection would have been sandroba..... Well he was one of the more experienced players, and he had already shown that he would be fairly active, so perhaps they wanted to take out a potential future threat. Maybe they misread him as a blue. Chances are it was this combined with his tunneling of Cthaszsa that made him a good target. Who are the remaining veteran mafia players on here?
Orgolove, kitaman27, redtooth are easily the most experienced. Kenpachi is as well but he's a confirmed Vigilante.
Yes I agree. Jackal was killed because it made Cthazsa look suss and because he's experienced.
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On May 14 2011 03:08 sinani206 wrote:
Do we know if we are Godfather? I heard somewhere that Godfather appears as town, is that why I don't know? Because if not I think I'm town.
Come on man. If you are town defend yourself. Explain the reasoning behind your votes, behind your arguments.
I don't think you are mafia anymore.
Make a roleclaim, what role are you?
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On May 14 2011 03:10 sinani206 wrote:
I just said, I think I'm town.
Ok that's cool. What role are you? Vanilla Townie? Detective? Third Party Planar Dragon? Check your role PM from GMarshal. You can't post it in the thread but you can tell us what role you are.
The way things are going you are almost certainly going to be lynched. Do you want to be lynched? I don't think you're mafia anymore man, even though I voted for you on Day 3.
If you are town you owe it to everyone to defend yourself. Tell us why you voted the way you did. Tell us why you never defended yourself yesterday. Tell us why you said you'd post analysis on day 3 and never did.
If you give a satisfactory explanation I will move heaven and earth to save you.
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All those are reasonable.
I just found these posts by you.
On May 12 2011 01:40 sinani206 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 11 2011 23:21 sandroba wrote:On May 11 2011 14:39 sinani206 wrote:
OK, I'm catching up, just skimmed the thread and planning to read more in-depth later.
I will not comment on anything until I'm fully awake though.
On May 11 2011 23:05 sinani206 wrote:
Do the people on the internet ever sleep? I'm on Pacific time and I just woke up. I am actually in the process of writing my post now. Be more patient. I would like an explanation on your sleep schedule aswel. 14:40 you just woke up, you will read the thread and comment. Where is the comment? 23:05 you just woke up again???? This is a misunderstanding. At 14:40 I was about to go to sleep. I woke up at 23:05 and had to got to school. I am at school now and I am reading through the thread and writing my post.
On May 12 2011 01:56 sinani206 wrote:
I am really confused about everything that is going on. I have been reading the thread, but it is hard to understand something as unorganized as this. Maybe I'm missing something?
I am not sure who to agree with. All of the accusations make sense.
Eternalmisfit seems like he could be Mafia, and there is definitely good evidence to prove this.
Ilovejonn claimed townie and seems suspicious, however he was also the one that first FoS'ed EM.
I admit that my accusation of Kevconsim was quite stupid, reading back a few posts, but again, I hadn't seen the post about his emergency when I posted that accusation.
Just because I am the easiest target doesn't mean you should gang up on me. In Sc2 Mafia, when the silent people get lynched, the loud ones turn out to be Mafia.
These explain your votes and your lack of analysis early on day 3. Why didn't you post any analysis after this?
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EPT
