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On May 11 2011 02:29 sandroba wrote:
I can see how ilovejonn can be scum and his analysis of EM and explanation for not voting for Amber are quite contradictory indeed. The thing is I'm having a hard time actually seeing a scenario where Eternal is not scum.
sinani206 is either from another planet or scum. Either way he is useless. If he is not mafia, mafia is certanly not getting rid of him for us. We are going to have to lynch him sooner or later, but today is a very important day, since if we kill mafia their kp gets reduced.
@Imprevious I've read all kita's posts and I'm not in the slightest confident in calling him scum.
The other thing to take into account is experience. sinani206 is playing his first game. EM is a relative newbie. ilovejonn has been around for a while.
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On May 11 2011 02:44 AirbladeOrange wrote:
Can someone tell me why Cthsazsa is cleared now? When I checked out all of his posts the other day there was a clear sense that he was wishy washy and never wanted to make a stand against anyone. But after Amber flipped red something changed but I don't recall it being a one or the other is red situation. Also I pushed him pretty hard and stuck with it and want to make sure we have enough to clear him or have bigger threats.
I'm not a big fan of the statistical analysis and using numerical values to determine one's scumminess. Maybe it's just because I hate math or maybe because I'm high on that list but certain things just don't seem to be a good indicator of how likely someone is to be mafia. Voting for town can just mean someone had a bad read, it happens to everyone. Changing a vote isn't scummy as long as the player provides a convincing reason for doing so. When they voted can just mean they wanted to see any developments that could happen before the day ends or they had other IRL things to do.
I'm not sure where I stand on EternalMisfit.
I think Sandroba is town and has gained a lot of town cred after the night.
As chaoser said, Cthazsa was cleared as he was the alternative candidate to Amber. Mafia was resisting the lynch of amber hard and were voting for him instead.
You're not sure about EternalMisift, how do you feel about ilovejonn and sinani206?
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On May 11 2011 03:17 ilovejonn wrote:Hold up everyone. You guys still think I am scum just because of a) I did not vote switch to Amber, and b) I was on the bad end of the lynches? Did I not already say I was going to be out the whole day on Mother's day? I cannot believe you guys would have missed that. Even if chaoser claimed his DT earlier in the day I would not have seen his claim, and his claim was actually near the end of the day cycle! I'd also like to hear what the numbers meant on orgolove's stat thing. 0.5 in b, 3 in g, 5 in j. I read somewhere people got - points just because they vote switched to Amber? Did you not consider the circumstance where I could not have gotten internet access that day because I was out? And just because people vote switched to Amber does NOT mean they are town, it could have simply been a bussing of a team mate. Show nested quote +On May 11 2011 02:31 Forumite wrote:
Ilovejonn only ever voted for Cthsazsa or players that flipped Town. Are you for real Forumite? Last time I checked you were on Kurumi's lynch, as well as Cthsazsa's lynch. Here, I'll list people that have gotten the wrong lynch for both days that are still alive: Forumite, sinani. So, I was out the whole day, what is your excuse Forumite? It's extremely suspicious to me that you would use that against me when you yourself have done the same. Also, to accuse me of highly likely being scum/GF because I'm a veteran is ridiculous. I have been town aligned my WHOLE career on TL mafia and I am going to say that it is the same for this game. If you expect me to be godlike like chaoser, then sorry, I am trying to improve, but that does not mean it does not allow room for me to be wrong does it? Today's vote I am going with EM. I'm demoralized for being wrong so many times already and the only thing that is keeping me going is that chaoser was suspicious of EM as well as my own analysis of EM.
You do realise that Forumite voted sinani and not you? The argument against you still stands, as it does about sinani and I guess me as well. A last second change to Amber indeed does not imply town, but people who were on Cthazsa in the first place implies scum.
Orgolove's data thing was a bit over the top with assigning random points for various acts but does do a good job of pointing out the voting patterns and should still be considered.
I'd like to hear some more opinions on current issues. It's been the same few people talking.
It's 230am and I'm going to bed 
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I agree with absolutely everything you have said kita. I kind of forgot about jaminz
Specifying godfather over simply scum is a little bit of a leap for me but it's certainly still feasible, newer players like annul have been chosen as godfathers before.
There are 3 mafia remaining of course, so how do you feel about EM and sinani206?
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Conversion, jaminz and AirbladeOrange, this is a call to the war room!
Provide an opinion please!
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On May 11 2011 20:08 sandroba wrote:
@kitaman27 jaiminz cast his vote on Amber when the votes were 7-6 in favor of Cthsazsa, tieing the votes. Consider that before saying he is mafia.
This is true, but you've got to be careful about clearing people solely on the basis of voting for Amber. If you were scum, would you have the entire team on exactly the same vote?
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I'm a little worried that this could sidetrack things but here goes. At this point in time I feel it almost impossible for ilovejonn and EM to be both mafia. With so few mafia remaining, if they were both scum ilovejonn would not tunnel EM so hard.
This might seem like a strange idea, but we may still have a day vig left. 5 blues have died and Kenpachi has claimed, unopposed, that he was the night vig who shot GGQ. That makes 3 night vigs, 2 day vigs and a dt in aidnai.
Chaoser died night 2 despite being a) a veteran, b) the most obvious medic target of all time and c) the mafia having only 2 kp with which to kill him. There probably aren't any medics.
I'm willing to bet there are either 1 or 2 blues left. The possibilities are day vig, night vig, dt, veteran.
I am putting a call out. If by any chance there is a day vigilante left, I strongly urge you to shoot one of EM and ilovejonn today and soon. I nominate ilovejonn and then the lynch can be between sinani206 and EM. How does this sound to people?
If there aren't any day vigs alive still, well we keep going as is
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On May 12 2011 00:35 DropBear wrote:I'm a little worried that this could sidetrack things but here goes. At this point in time I feel it almost impossible for ilovejonn and EM to be both mafia. With so few mafia remaining, if they were both scum ilovejonn would not tunnel EM so hard. This might seem like a strange idea, but we may still have a day vig left. 5 blues have died and Kenpachi has claimed, unopposed, that he was the night vig who shot GGQ. That makes 3 night vigs, 2 day vigs and a dt in aidnai. Chaoser died night 2 despite being a) a veteran, b) the most obvious medic target of all time and c) the mafia having only 2 kp with which to kill him. There probably aren't any medics. I'm willing to bet there are either 1 or 2 blues left. The possibilities are day vig, night vig, dt, veteran. I am putting a call out. If by any chance there is a day vigilante left, I strongly urge you to shoot one of EM and ilovejonn today and soon. I nominate ilovejonn and then the lynch can be between sinani206 and EM. How does this sound to people? If there aren't any day vigs alive still, well we keep going as is
Actually, it might make even more sense to do it the other way around. Shooting EM would confirm ilovejonn either way and we get a mafia today regardless.
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On May 12 2011 00:45 sandroba wrote:
@DropBear There is VERY LITTLE chance that both jonn and EM are mafia. Also there's VERY LITTLE chance town has more vigs. Also there even a SMALLER chance that we have a day vig left.
I missed the purpose of your post completely.
It was just putting it out there. There may only be a small chance but while there's still a possibility it should be discussed imo.
The lynch targets still stay the same. Should any day vigs remain it would be a way of clearing things up slightly faster and ensuring the mafia KP gets reduced for the night.
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I'm sorry EM, I tried!
Is everyone ok with clearing me now?
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On May 12 2011 12:07 Forumite wrote:Show nested quote +On May 12 2011 12:03 Varpulis wrote:
FoS ilovejonn and Sinani206. Throw in Jaminz for good measure. I´ve no idea about ilj, but Jaminz's save of sinani make them both almost 100% confirmed scum.
Ehhhh I'm not 100% convinced on jaminz.
Sinani though is another story. That guy is so dead tomorrow.
I am in fact starting to wonder about ilovejonn being maybe town. Going to post all my thoughts just before daybreak.
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On May 12 2011 12:37 orgolove wrote:
Terrible town.
I did my best to convince you, and yet you blew it.
Really, where?
Your big data post had sinani206 at 1.5 points. You admit yourself it would not have got GGQ.
On May 10 2011 17:42 orgolove wrote:Show nested quote +On May 10 2011 17:31 sandroba wrote:
Orgolove, while I apreciate the effort and those calculation help us see somethings better, they are not our main tool for catching mafia. Mafia are those who are misleading the town on purpose.
Those are EM and DropBear. Well, we can agree that Dropbear is a major target. Shall we vote for them, and ask the DTs to check EM, ilovejonn, or AirBladeOrange?
Pretty much every single post you've made since then was trying to get me lynched.
You actively encourage going after EM as well. You never defended him for a second.
I am so going after you once sinani206 is dead.
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You've said you tried your best to convince us.
On May 12 2011 12:37 orgolove wrote:
Terrible town.
I did my best to convince you, and yet you blew it.
Please show me where you actively defended EM at any stage on day 3, or pushed for ilovejonn. In fact, please show me where you actively hunted anyone who's name wasn't DropBear.
Convince us of what exactly? That EM was town? Because you sure as hell didn't do that. That sinani206 was mafia? Because you sure as hell didn't do that.
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Hey kita. How do you feel about orgolove being the godfather?
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On May 12 2011 12:55 Kenpachi wrote:Show nested quote +On May 12 2011 12:55 DropBear wrote:
Hey kita. How do you feel about orgolove being the godfather? wtf
Experienced player? Check
Drastic change in activity pregame vs postgame? Check
Huge post about points or something. Complete misdirection? Check
Is obviously active around lynch time but didn't take a stand on sinani206 v Eternalmisfit at all? Then claims he did his best to convince us? Check
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On May 12 2011 13:01 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 12 2011 12:55 DropBear wrote:
Hey kita. How do you feel about orgolove being the godfather? meh I've got a stronger feeling about jaminz. Probably bigger fish to fry at the moment.
I think we can agree that sinani206 dies first though. I'm not convinced on jaminz, going to leave my big analysis until just before daybreak in case I get whacked.
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On May 12 2011 12:47 orgolove wrote:Sure. My list of suspects remains the same. - DropBear
- ilovejonn
- AirbladeOrange
- Varpulis
Your list is the same as it was after the Day 2 vote. Why haven't you changed it based on today's vote? There is an absolute tonne of new info coming from EM's lynch.
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Those of his suspects who is coming back to "frame him" is me and VarpuliS. AirbladeOrange and ilovejonn are nowhere to be seen.
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EPT
