EPTSurprisingly Normal Mini Mafia I - Page 2
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
I would probably pop over here a few times to see if anything new is posted and will post a synopsis just before the end of the night in case I get killed by the mafia. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
On April 18 2011 02:48 Vain wrote: I would also like to point out how the voting went. This is some actual data we can use and not up for debate. But as always it is up for intepretation of us. It could very well be that one of the persons voted for we're scum and the mafia influenced the vote. There has been some swing in vote's which i find very suspicous. This is how the vote looked 10 hours before closing + Show Spoiler + On April 17 2011 00:38 chaoser wrote: Yes they do get modkilled shcoleosis: 2 Vain Zorkmid Zorkmid: 1 Forumite Senj: 2 sandroba Varpulis elmizzit: 1 Eternalmisfit shcoleosis to be lynched on account of getting to 2 votes first People who haven't voted yet: Shcoleosis, elmizzit, senj 10 hours and 25 minutes remaining till the end of day And here the final vote: So in a summarry. shcoleosis lost one vote on her senj gained SIX votes and Elmizzt lost one. We can conclude from this that there is some serous bandwagoning going on here and maby some influence of the mafia. Keep in mind that there are not one but two mafia members influencing the votes and that we can be sure that 2 of the votes are mafia ones. The mafia makes up already 25% of our population so do not rule out mafia influence out of this vote. People swapped their vote to Senj since he was going to be mod-killed anyways (for not voting). Since it was highly likely that he was going to be mod-killed (since he had not posted/voted till 1 hr before deadline), it made more sense to lynch him then go for someone else and lynch a townie (or a blue) by mistake. In any case, we will have at least information about one more person before the next lynch (mafia kill or mafia save in case of medic) and if there is a detective, he will know about 2 more. So tomorrow, it should be a much more informed discussion. I would be surprised if none of me, Zork, or Varpulis get hit by the mafia tonight (or the next night at the very least). Since I know I am town, I would start getting suspicious of the other two in that case; and I believe it will be a likewise thought process for the other two as well. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
Shcoleosis Zork and Vain -> town Varp -> Likely town Forum -> Scum Elmizzt -> No opinion Sand -> Likely scum (initial accusation followed by a swift change of vote) Zorkmid Sand, and Shcol -> town Forumite -> Likely town Varpulis -> Likely scum (has pointed Zork being town a few times) Elmizzt -> Scum Vain -> no opinion Elmizzt Varp ->Likely town Not a whole lot to go for others Sandroba Zork-> Town Elmizzt -> Likely Town Forumite -> Likely scum Forumite I dont think he has been strongly suspected by anyone or strongly said to be town by anyone so there is no linking with others. Vapulis Zork -> Likely scum No one has accused of him of being scum at any point (apart from initial lurking) Vain Shcol -> Town Others have questioned his inactivity but no strong accusation/support yet. Summary In summary, Zork and Shcol have been point of discussion or being involved in discussion and most people have some sort of public opinion/vote on either of those. If I were a detective, I would check up on those two since knowing their alignment provides a plethora of information for analysis. Remember, don't role-claim as a DT unless absolutely necessary since it will get you mafia killed in the following night. Lastly, I did not list my leanings based on the above analysis and it would be better than someone unbiased does that. Note: This will be my penultimate post before daybreak as I need to do some work. I would make a post just before daybreak detailing what my strategy would be so that you some insight if I die. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
On April 18 2011 05:57 Forumite wrote: Eternalmisfit, why am I likely scum if Sandroba is scum? Is this because of that old Zorkmid post? It is a rather weak link and hence I stated 'Likely scum' for weak links and Scum for strong links according to my opinion. It was more so that Sandroba came your defense once early in the thread when you were lurking. If Sand turned out to be scum, it is unlikely that he will come to the defense of a townie and thus there is a weak connection in that regard. In order to be fair, I made a similar post for Varpulis way early in the thread also. Thus, it seems a weak connection but I posted it none the less. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
1. No one died - This implies that either we have a medic or mafia choose not to kill anyone. Now, it would seem more likely that we have a medic but 6/8 people have posted and no one has claimed being saved yet. This mean that either Elmizzt or Shcoleosis are town and were saved (in which case they would claim being saved sometime tomorrow). What is likely based on claims: Sandroba was role-blocked. Now, I won't take the claim at face-value since it is still possibility that Sandroba is scum and is lying. But, at this point, it is highly likely that he is town as I don't see any benefits of lying as mafia this early in the game as he has painted a big lynch target on himself if people get even a small clue of him being lying. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
Yes, I was saved by the Doctor, Mafia wanted me dead, and I got a PM saying I was saved. It didn´t include info on who saved me, I wanted to drag it out, see what people were saying, if someone makes a mistake. I would like you to note that I didn´t say I was saved at first. Partly because I didn´t see the PM until this morning, but also because I wanted to lure out the Mafia, and because I knew people would suspect me if I say I was saved. Saying I´m saved doesn´t help much, except if I get someone to make a mistake, like Vain did. The above two posts of Forumite seem contradictory. The first post implies that he got the PM, read it and then decide to drag it out. In the second post, he makes it more vague by saying that he didn't see the PM first and that people would suspect (saying the timeslines of both decisions were parallel). This is suspicious in general but it doesn't make sense with the rest of the evidence (i.e. if Formuite is mafia, then who got saved). But, still I would put a red flag on him and analyze his posts further. Vain, on the other hand, seems even more suspicious since his post insinuated that he knew Forumite was saved before Forumite declared that publicly. FoS Vain FoS Forumite This forms another relationship in my prior related analysis where if either one of these is indeed mafia, the other is most likely town. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
Scholeosis Strong suspicion on here since she didn't defend herself at all, plans to lurk till tomorrow, and hasn't posted any analysis on anyone. The biggest question mark is who is the second mafia with her. At this point, I can only think of Elmizzt who can be the second mafia via process of elimination. I doubt he has defended her directly at any point but pretty much everyone has voted for her lynch at one point of time. Vain Assuming Forumite is speaking the truth, he is either red or blue. Also, his only possible accomplice can be Elmizzt as everyone has been ganging up on him as well. Zorkmid is another possible accomplice of him. Varpulis Though I consider him town for now, if he doesn't get him tomorrow night, I will start getting suspicious. Though the same is true for me as well. Sandroba A quick role-block claim right after the day started. I would tread cautiously since a false role-block claim can be a ruse to drive medic/detective's out for role-claiming. Without his claim, we cannot guess the setup of this mafia game and a false claim throws the town in confusion. Also, since it is a role-block claim, no one apart from mafia can know whether it is true or a lie. The timing of the claim makes it even more suspicious since he claimed 2 minutes after the day started. It just seems too good to be true IMO. Forumite A save claim. This one is a little more believable than the role-block claim as it is a high risk claim for mafia. They do know there was a medic since their target didn't die. However, claiming a save pretty much ensures that two people know that he is mafia. Thus, it seems rather unlikely that it is a false claim. The only way it can be a false claim is the mafia didn't kill anyone in the night which is quite stupid in itself. However, if someone else was saved last night as well, please do speak up. Note, I am not asking the medic to role-claim, just asking the saved person. Barring someone else claiming a save, I would treat Forumite as town for now. Elmzzt No one knows where he is. He hasn't posted substantive material yet. He is the only one linked with two highly potential mafia scum. There is not much to analyze beyond that. I would put him as scum in my book. Zorkmid I have to say that either he is very good at playing both town or mafia, or he just bad at playing both. I can't get a good read on him as pro-town and occasionally I get the scum vibe, but apart from the role-claim post early in first day, I see a lack of scum-like behavior from him. He is protecting Vain though and is a possible accomplice if Vain is mafia. Summary Forumite is most likely town according to me. FoS Sandroba I would still probably vote for either Shcoleosis or Elmizzt since those seem more scummy than Vain to me. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
And Elmizzt posted while I was writing my post. And goes after Vain which breaks his potential affiliation with Vain. @Elmizzt As much as Forumite's delayed claim makes it suspicious; since no one else has claimed being saved and mafia didn't get a kill last night; I can't find a scenario (in which mafia isn't totally indept or is just too awesome) where he is scum. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
I can only think of you  Sandroba & Forumite are too anti-Vain! Vain is too anti-Shcoleosis! Varpulis has voted for Vain Elmizzt & me are also suspicious of Vain | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
On April 19 2011 08:07 elmizzt wrote: Well, I think you have to consider that a mafia was saved. It that's the case, then Vain is mafia, and his partner was saved. They were trying to throw us off by shifting the save to Vain, not sure why they would do that, but it's a possible scenario. The mafia cannot be saved as in that case we would have a town kill. In the absence of a town kill, I can safely say that a townie was saved and there is a medic. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
##Vote: Vain The main case against Vain is that he possibly slipped up the information that Forumite was saved before Forumite officially announced. That can imply either mafia or medic. This makes me wary of lynching him and I will probably revisit my vote with a detailed analysis later. However, in case I get stuck at work and cant vote again, I have put a placeholder vote for now. Frankly, I am hesitant on voting for Scholeosis also at this point since almost everyone is against her. So, it is either real bad mafia play or she is town. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
Modified analysis Vain Forumite Sandroba - I think he is either blue or mafia since he checked PM's and claimed block almost instantly after the day started. However, it seems harder and harder to associate an accomplice to him. Though, since he has been pushing for lynching Vain, he might indeed be scum. VarpuliS and Zorkmid have seemed pro-town for the most. Scholeosis and Elmizzt seem mafia scum to me. ##Unvote ##Vote: Shcoleosis | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
My current list based on this flip Sandroba Forumite Vain At this point, I am 90% sure that the above are town. This leave Elmizzit, VarpuliS, or Zorkmid as the second mafia. I am tending towards Elmizzt as he seems the most suspicious of the three (Varp has made a strong case against Shcoleosis the first day). Elmizzt posted and voted only after it was guaranteed that there was no way Shcoleosis was going to survive. I can't get a good read on Zorkmid though. Since we definitely have a detective (since have both a medic and mafia roleblocker), I would recommend checking Elmizzt tonight. Based on that check, I think that we can wrap this up the next day. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
On April 20 2011 11:22 Vain wrote: Jeah, but sucks i fucked up with that first post. I was so happy for having a successful save that i slipped a bit. I think i could have hid it for days if i didn't do that In hindsight, the slip-up and resulting medic/save claim cleared up a lot of the confusion since it decreased the number of potential mafia significantly. Also, it was quite obvious that Sandroba was either DT or mafia since he claimed a role-block 1 min after day post (rather unlikely for a townie). Thus, it was quite likely he had a role in which he would likely be getting back a PM. | ||
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