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On May 03 2011 05:11 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Well I know I'm town, so if you're going by the fact that scum is alerting scum still, then that makes Impervious red. I also wouldn't count out the fact that Ace could be inventing the messages if he were Scum just to lead town in the wrong direction. I'm looking at it both ways.
If Ace is town:
The messages are true
There was a message about a Canadian
If scum is alerting scum of each others identities, then one of me or Impervious are red, meaning Impervious is Red.
It could also be that scum want someone to push to lynch or kill either me or Impervious as well, when it says "Watch", not just "He's", meaning in that case, we're probably both green.
If Ace is scum:
The messages are most likely false
Scum killed GGQ
Ace fakes a message referencing the already dead GGQ, and then makes one about Canadians.
Ace knows who the rest of his scum team are, and knows neither Impervious nor myself are red.
He can now use that to push either of our lynches.
That's why I'm not jumping on Impervious either. Ace said he wants to lynch a lurker, but there's not many left. The easiest candidate would be BB, and after that one of you/San/Jackal/Eiii.
Lynching San would tell us Ace's alignment, but I'm not sure if we can sacrifice a town player if he's not scum. In that case, Ace is pretty much town, but then we will have killed one of our own, and Ace will most likely die at night. We can lynch Jackal based on the 50% probability that he's red, but we also have to keep in mind that there was RNG. BB replaced darm, who looked scummy, but was barely participating in the thread, so it's hard to get a complete alignment from his words and actions. BB also still hasn't had a chance to say anything yet. I haven't noticed much of Eiii, but I'm going to have to go reread all his posts. If I remember correctly, he wasn't a supporter of the bum lynch. Then there's yourself. you've been lurking pretty hard for a major part of the game, and now claim a bullet-proof, self-aware miller role. This doesn't absolve you from suspicion in my eyes, because that seems like a very easy thing to claim for scum, and explains why you would ever show up red to DT checks if that came up.
And, whether Ace is town or not, we'll know more by keeping him alive for the night than we will otherwise. If Ace is red, it seems to be pretty certain that sandroba is also red. If not, I'm pretty certain that both would be green. I'm not sure which it is yet.
So, imo, we've gotta go after the 3rd mafia member. darm/BB, Jackal, and Eii are the best choices for that.
darm was really quiet, and BrownBear hasn't posted anything since the replacement, so we don't have much to go on. Eii is similar. Jackal came up with the inconclusive from the DT, and was already acting scummy before that. As much as I would rather lynch darm/BB or Eii, Jackal gives us the ~50% chance of hitting a red..... That's better odds than I can give to the others. And, I'm thinking that at this point, if we get it right, we will probably win. If not, we'll probably lose. That's why, unless something game-changing comes up in the next few hours, I'm sticking with my vote for him.
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On May 03 2011 07:28 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2011 04:44 tnkted wrote:
Ok, I just went back through all of GGQ's posts and didn't find a single thing thats conclusive. I don't think scum used breadcrumbs this game., if what ace is saying about his interceptions is true. I think CL just sent things related to the people's profiles and meta. Is there a list somewhere where it shows who all is alive? because if there are 3 scum left and we have 7 players (by my count) this is lylo.
IMO Jackal is a bad lynch. If what ace posted was true, CL didn't use breadcrumbs at all! Instead they used clues related to the person's identity. Specifically,
"watch the canadian" and "likes mens magazines," the latter obviously pointing at GGQ. The question is, watch the canadian: whats up with that? Who is a well known canadian player playing in this game? Impervious is possible, but I'm more afraid of...
#vote Mr. Wiggles The message could mean that a Canadian is Scum, to shoot a Canadian player, to watch what they post in the thread...who knows? Wiggles seems like the most Pro-town player in the game so far so I doubt anyone voting for him.
And that's one of the reasons I'm skeptical of you. That message that you "intercepted" makes so little sense. I can't make anything out of it. It's got to apply to me or Wiggles, yea, but it still doesn't make any sense.
Wiggles seems to be really pro-town, and I already know that I am town.....
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9 left. 5 town 4 mafia. Right?
If we don't get a good lynch right now, it's GG anyways. Whether or not BB is town or mafia.
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Guys, this is the 2nd time now where Jackal has evaded a lynch, even though it was definitely the best choice of action. And, in turn, we fucking lynched a townie.
I swear, if he does turn out to be GF or red of any kind, any of you guys who have been pushing for other lynches instead are going to be auto day-one lynches from me for now on.
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Unless you're red. In which case, well done.
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The fact is - we'd have learned a lot of info from lynching you on either of those nights.
While we did learn more by lynching a blue and an un-night-killable green, neither of those outcomes favored the town at all. And we didn't learn any information that can help lead us to other reds, even if they did show red. That isn't the case with you.
And, now that we can't afford a mislynch, we don't have the ability to take the 50/50 with you and then be able to identify at least 1 or 2 others as reds. We have to get a good one right now.
To be honest, even if you're a blue role, you'd have been more useful to the town dead than alive.
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Jackal, maybe I'm stubborn, but you're not convincing me at all.
So, out of the players that are left:
Neither Ace nor sandroba will die tonight. Everyone knows their fates are intertwined.
darmousseh/BrownBear seemed scummy due to inactivity and bandwagoning, but there is nothing conclusive. The mafia probably won't kill him tonight.
Same goes for Eiii.
Jackal has been a good distraction if he's town, or has had a lot of help staying alive as mafia. He won't die tonight.
Wiggles and I have that message about us. I'm not sure what it means, but it applies to one of us. If we get caught up on it, it'll likely cause us problems. The mafia know this, and would probably try to keep us alive, to push Ace's message for a lynch on one of us tomorrow. Although, this is still pretty weak.
Which leaves us with VarpuliS. The most pro-town, and the least under suspicion right now. If he doesn't die tonight, I'd be surprised. Why? Because his death leaves us with no information. That is, unless he is actually a member of the Mafia. However, at the same time, him being left alive won't actually tell us much about who the mafia is, because they could kill someone else to try to make VarpuliS look suspicious.
So, out of the obvious people who won't be around tomorrow, it seems like it could be me, Wiggles, or VarpuliS. Potentially BrownBear and Eiii, but I find this to be less likely.
Why? Because we're the ones who's give away the least information as to who is actually mafia, or will be more difficult to convince the town to lynch in a lylo situation.
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On May 04 2011 08:05 Jackal58 wrote:
The only way you can state that Ace won't die tonight is if you're scum and you know Ace is scum That also makes sandroba scum.
That's exactly why he won't die tonight. It'll basically confirm sandroba as town, making it much more likely that a mafia member will be targetted for a lynch tomorrow. Think it through, man.
Oh, wait, you don't need to.
This type of response is exactly what I expected from a red.
If you think for a second that scum would let a real DT live through the night you're insane. But no. It's "Neither Ace nor sandroba will die tonight" Your words not mine. It's Sandroba,Ace and you the Canadian.
Where did Ace admit to being a real DT? He's not. He claimed that he can intercept messages. There is a fucking massive difference there.
The DT check was merely icing on the cake. Now I'm 100% convinced you're scum.
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Jackal, first you're calling out Ace and sandroba, now, if you're trying to connect me to Ace's message, it means that you're confirming him as town.....
I can't believe how dumb you are if you think that kind of inconsistency is going to convince anyone.
In fact, I'm starting to think that Ace really is the DT. And you really are the GF. The message "Watch the Canadian" could simply mean that your scumbuddy should watch out for me, since I'm the one who's consistently going against you. It actually fits pretty nicely.
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Well, not DT, but whatever he is.
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On May 04 2011 10:39 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Impervious, why would you give scum a guide on who would not give town information by dying before scum has sent in their kill?
Why? So we could know what to expect for today.
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On May 04 2011 13:06 Ace wrote:
By the way I didn't get any messages last night.
That's pretty unfortunate.
Although, that may also be because the GF didn't send a message out. If so, that could end up helping us.
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On May 04 2011 13:29 Impervious wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2011 10:39 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Impervious, why would you give scum a guide on who would not give town information by dying before scum has sent in their kill? Why? So we could know what to expect for today.
I need to expand on this.
So far, the mafia seems to have done a pretty good job with their hits. All I did was point out what was most likely to happen. And it leaves me with the following conclusion (thank you for actually hitting him btw mafia)
There's 4 town left. I'm convinced now that Ace and sandroba are blues. I'm green. That leaves 1 other townie who I'm not too sure of.
With how Jackal has played (especially his hostile and not very well thought out replies), I'm 100% convinced he's scum. Quite possibly GF. darmousseh/BrownBear has lurked hardocre, and jumped on the bandwagon against town players pretty easily, so I'm fairly certain that he's also red. This leaves 1 mafia I'm not too sure of.
The two players left are Wiggles and Eiii. Of the two, Wiggles seems to be most pro-town, so that would make Eiii the last mafia, by default.
So, my scum list at the moment is Jackal (probably GF), Eiii, and BrownBear.
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On May 04 2011 13:42 Impervious wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2011 13:29 Impervious wrote:On May 04 2011 10:39 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Impervious, why would you give scum a guide on who would not give town information by dying before scum has sent in their kill? Why? So we could know what to expect for today. I need to expand on this. So far, the mafia seems to have done a pretty good job with their hits. All I did was point out what was most likely to happen. And it leaves me with the following conclusion (thank you for actually hitting him btw mafia)There's 4 town left. I'm convinced now that Ace and sandroba are blues. I'm green. That leaves 1 other townie who I'm not too sure of. With how Jackal has played (especially his hostile and not very well thought out replies), I'm 100% convinced he's scum. Quite possibly GF. darmousseh/BrownBear has lurked hardocre, and jumped on the bandwagon against town players pretty easily, so I'm fairly certain that he's also red. This leaves 1 mafia I'm not too sure of. The two players left are Wiggles and Eiii. Of the two, Wiggles seems to be most pro-town, so that would make Eiii the last mafia, by default. So, my scum list at the moment is Jackal (probably GF), Eiii, and BrownBear.
Now I feel like I need to elaborate on that sentence.
Varp was one of the people I had a hard time pegging. He was quick to switch votes off of players who were scummy, and I had 2nd thoughts about him, much like how Wiggles wasn't sure about him. With him gone, even though he was town, it's one less person I was having a hard time getting a read off of, and makes it easier for me to believe that Wiggles is town at the same time.
Now, the other reason for wanting him gone is actually because it would guarantee that Wiggles and Ace were still kicking. Since I'm pretty sure that both are town, having both around to do some analysis is far better than losing one of them. I haven't played a game with Varp before, but even if I was pretty sure that I'd prefer Ace and Wiggles on my side as well.
If the mafia were going to target someone else, their choices would be Ace (veteran player + intercepting messages), Wiggles (gives less info about player alignment + veteran player), me (which wouldn't help them out much at all), or sandroba (which would be detrimental since it would basically confirm Ace as being town). Simply put, if it wasn't Varp dying tonight (if I'm right with who is scum and who is town), then it would have been Wiggles or Ace. And I want both around.
Yes, my post yesterday was scummy. That was completely intentional. Now I am pretty sure that I can peg the remaining mafia.
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Ace, I'm sure you're still here. Thoughts? Am I bat-shit crazy, or am I on to something here?
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Ace, whichever one you want to go for, I'll support it. We need to work together on this one.
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EPT
