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Sleeper Cell Mafia - Page 3

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Impervious
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Canada4212 Posts
April 30 2011 01:13 GMT
#508
EBWOP - Crap, I didn't use the right numbers. With 1 less town than what I used, there's actually a slightly better chance of hitting a red.
~ \(ˌ)im-ˈpər-vē-əs\ : not capable of being damaged or harmed.
Impervious
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Canada4212 Posts
April 30 2011 01:20 GMT
#512
I'm not 100% sold on him either. But I still think that lynching him is a mistake.
~ \(ˌ)im-ˈpər-vē-əs\ : not capable of being damaged or harmed.
Impervious
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Canada4212 Posts
April 30 2011 01:21 GMT
#513
EBWOP - that was to Ace.
~ \(ˌ)im-ˈpər-vē-əs\ : not capable of being damaged or harmed.
Impervious
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Canada4212 Posts
April 30 2011 01:46 GMT
#517
While I don't like the idea of lynching darm right now, I really think it would be worse to lynch bum, so you can count me in. I'll check back before midnight, and switch my vote if it'll help.
~ \(ˌ)im-ˈpər-vē-əs\ : not capable of being damaged or harmed.
Impervious
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Canada4212 Posts
April 30 2011 03:06 GMT
#527
Well, by the look of it, we're going to find out the truth about bum tonight.
~ \(ˌ)im-ˈpər-vē-əs\ : not capable of being damaged or harmed.
Impervious
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Canada4212 Posts
April 30 2011 18:31 GMT
#559
Fuck.....

Guys.....

Even if you don't trust bum's analysis and his check, at least lets get Ace tomorrow..... Have you not seen his recent posting?
~ \(ˌ)im-ˈpər-vē-əs\ : not capable of being damaged or harmed.
Impervious
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Canada4212 Posts
April 30 2011 20:22 GMT
#561
Well, glad I came back as a townie this time. I played similar in my last game, and had someone come up with the exact opposite verdict lol.



We're on a tightrope right now, as the town.....

We have very little room for error, so if there happens to be a vigi left, plz make a good hit. If there's a doc, plz pick the right person. If there's a vet, plz attract enough attention to absorb a hit.
~ \(ˌ)im-ˈpər-vē-əs\ : not capable of being damaged or harmed.
Impervious
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Canada4212 Posts
April 30 2011 23:09 GMT
#566
We need a good lynch tomorrow. No more of this divided bullcrap that led to the lynch of our beloved DT. Any of the scum players are probably laughing at us at the moment. We're beating ourselves up, more than they're winning.

I thought Ace was playing a little weird before. His "plan" to get the list of players we all consider to be useful scumbuddies led to no surprise, which is a pretty useless play from a player like him. And with how he was pushing for a lynch of bum, I'm 95% sure he's scum. Not sure about GF, but definitely red.
~ \(ˌ)im-ˈpər-vē-əs\ : not capable of being damaged or harmed.
Impervious
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Canada4212 Posts
May 01 2011 04:34 GMT
#591
It's too convenient. I don't believe him.
~ \(ˌ)im-ˈpər-vē-əs\ : not capable of being damaged or harmed.
Impervious
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Canada4212 Posts
May 01 2011 16:22 GMT
#604
I'm waiting to hear this as well.
~ \(ˌ)im-ˈpər-vē-əs\ : not capable of being damaged or harmed.
Impervious
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Canada4212 Posts
May 01 2011 17:22 GMT
#611
I figured that there may be a vet role in the game.

Unless we've got a better option, Jackal seems to be the next best lynch.
~ \(ˌ)im-ˈpər-vē-əs\ : not capable of being damaged or harmed.
Impervious
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Canada4212 Posts
May 01 2011 17:23 GMT
#612
I was just typing it up lol.

I'm less convinced that Ace is red now. Not 100% sure he's telling the truth, but more convinced that Jackal is really scum than Ace right now.
~ \(ˌ)im-ˈpər-vē-əs\ : not capable of being damaged or harmed.
Impervious
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Canada4212 Posts
May 01 2011 17:36 GMT
#614
Lol, so that's why you're suspicious of me?
~ \(ˌ)im-ˈpər-vē-əs\ : not capable of being damaged or harmed.
Impervious
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Canada4212 Posts
May 01 2011 17:39 GMT
#615
Well, if Ace is telling the truth, lets not make the same mistake that was made with bum. If Ace can still intercept messages, he can be of use to the town, so the Mafia will want to eliminate him.

So, even if you don't believe him, leaving him alive for the night is far more useful to us than killing him..... We'll get more information either way.
~ \(ˌ)im-ˈpər-vē-əs\ : not capable of being damaged or harmed.
Impervious
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Canada4212 Posts
May 01 2011 17:53 GMT
#618
Where, exactly, did I say I believed him?

On April 29 2011 11:31 Impervious wrote:
Statistically, it's a far better choice to lynch anyone who got "insufficient analysis" than to try to check them again.

I say we go for it. Right now. Maybe get Ace tomorrow?

Although, bum, I don't like how you're already revealing yourself..... I don't think you were in any danger yet, so it seems unnecessary at this point.


On April 30 2011 00:53 Impervious wrote:
Ok, for those of you who are skeptical of bum, what do you think about lynching him to prove it, to satisfy your curiosity?

If he really is the DT, his list and reasoning seems pretty solid, and I haven't seen any better ideas.....


Note - sarcasm isn't expressed well over the internet.

On April 30 2011 09:08 Impervious wrote:
Guys, if bum is in fact the analyst, while there is only a ~25% chance that he's actually the cell leader, there is a ~50% chance of getting a red. That is a pretty damn good chance at the moment.

While it is stupid (imo) that bum claimed already, if he is the DT, he'll be a high priority target for the mafia, so they'll take him out at night.

I don't see the reasoning for a red claiming as DT. It seems like such a dumb move. It instantly paints a giant target on them when he's still alive the next day. And if the mafia don't eliminate him tonight, then they risk him actually finding a mafia (assuming that Jackal is green).

And, of course, if he's green, it could be an interesting play, if you really had a strong read on someone.

I don't think it's a good idea to lynch him. Voting for someone other than Jackal, based on some kind of analysis, would be fine if you don't believe bum, but lynching him is really fucking dumb right now.


Plz tell me where I said I believed him? I simply couldn't see a good reason to lynch him yet..... And his plan wasn't a bad one, nor was his analysis. What else should I have done?

Oh, I could have always done what you did. Which was actually lynch the fucking DT..... I guess lynching a blue role is the smart town play.
~ \(ˌ)im-ˈpər-vē-əs\ : not capable of being damaged or harmed.
Impervious
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Canada4212 Posts
May 01 2011 20:20 GMT
#626
On May 02 2011 02:56 Ace wrote:
why are you playing the result? You sure seemed convinced he was a DT before he popped.

Show nested quote +

I don't see the reasoning for a red claiming as DT. It seems like such a dumb move. It instantly paints a giant target on them when he's still alive the next day. And if the mafia don't eliminate him tonight, then they risk him actually finding a mafia (assuming that Jackal is green).

And, of course, if he's green, it could be an interesting play, if you really had a strong read on someone.

I don't think it's a good idea to lynch him. Voting for someone other than Jackal, based on some kind of analysis, would be fine if you don't believe bum, but lynching him is really fucking dumb right now.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Oh my bad, I guess posts like this don't mean you believe bum but that everyone else is stupid.

Yes, everyone who is town that bandwagoned him is stupid.

There, I said it.

For reasons stated above. We would have had a lot more useful information right now had he been spared. Regardless of what his actual role was.
~ \(ˌ)im-ˈpər-vē-əs\ : not capable of being damaged or harmed.
Impervious
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Canada4212 Posts
May 01 2011 20:58 GMT
#637
Do you believe sandroba's claim of being hit as a veteran? Because, if so, Ace's claim makes sense.

Either you think that sandroba and Ace are both mafia, or you think neither are at this point. I am leaning towards "neither".
~ \(ˌ)im-ˈpər-vē-əs\ : not capable of being damaged or harmed.
Impervious
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Canada4212 Posts
May 01 2011 21:15 GMT
#641
Ok. Cool. I get that.

However, do we have a decent chance of finding the 3rd? Possibly. You're one of the candidates for that 3rd. There's a few others as well. We can always go after them today, rather than Ace and sandroba.

However, why would the mafia want someone who can intercept messages to survive for another night? If Ace becomes useless tomorrow, or dies tonight, we'll have our answer. And if sandroba dies tonight as well, we'll know enough as well.
~ \(ˌ)im-ˈpər-vē-əs\ : not capable of being damaged or harmed.
Impervious
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Canada4212 Posts
May 02 2011 18:24 GMT
#676
On May 03 2011 03:19 Jackal58 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 03 2011 03:15 sandroba wrote:
Yes, I realise that. My reasoning is actually a sum of factors. In that quote I was only responding to his question.
1) Change of meta.
2) Bum's check which makes him at least 50% to be mafia as imprevious pointed out.
3) The conjuction of the messages intercepted by ace and the fact that jackal pushed me to reveal how to make all mafia's players know in one message.
4) Switching his vote to bum after saying he believed him to be the DT.

No change. I'm reverting to the tunneling aggressive asshole. You're fucking scum.
Bums check is not a 50/50 proposition. It's 75% town 25% scum. Only scum use scummy numbers
Those messages are bullshit and you know it scummy.
I switched because I wasn't getting lynched due to bums incompetence. Not my problem scummy.

Fuck, man, go learn something about probabilities please. Stop it with spreading this bullshit.
~ \(ˌ)im-ˈpər-vē-əs\ : not capable of being damaged or harmed.
Impervious
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Canada4212 Posts
May 02 2011 18:41 GMT
#678
On May 03 2011 03:28 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 03 2011 03:22 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
This is a weird lynch. I'm not sure what to make of tnkted's claim of being a bullet-proof miller, as that seems really weird, and almost overpowered, as if he claims, he will never die if town believes him. I'm going to hold off on him though, because he isn't really important at the moment.

So if ace and san, and then varp are town, then the scum team is something like Jackal/BB/Eii.

I'm going to expect that all of the scum will know who each other are at this point. So that means that there's 4 scum maximum, maybe 2 minimum and 9 players. If there's 4, we're at MYLO already, so we need to be sure that we do this right. There's been associations drawn between people already, it seems. There's a strong relationship between Ace and San, as his claim relies on someone else being hit. There's also a relationship that I think exists with Varp, because of his quick agreement with Ace's claim, as well as the scum list he posted, which targets the other possibility of the scum team.

So what I need to decide, is if the scum team is formed of active posters and coherent, or made up of lurkers and disorganized.

Everyone's gone quiet, and Ace isn't really pushing hard for Jackal's lynch like he was for Bum's, which puts me on edge as well. People need to get talking more, because right now it seems like I'm the only one trying to figure things out while the lynch deadline is fast approaching.


I was actually waiting to see if something else happened as I recognized we're pretty much "stuck" here if we screw this up. Still think our best bet is to cut dead weight and see how the night ends up.

I would have been up for a switch to darmousseh, however, he's been replaced. I'm waiting to see how active BB is going to be before I do anything like that.

I still think Jackal is our best bet at the moment. Especially with how he's been acting recently.
~ \(ˌ)im-ˈpər-vē-əs\ : not capable of being damaged or harmed.
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