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TL Mafia XXXVIII

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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AirbladeOrange
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2574 Posts
April 03 2011 05:28 GMT
#122
/in
AirbladeOrange
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2574 Posts
April 10 2011 09:10 GMT
#596
Hello. I just got off my temp ban and had to read through 438967346 pages here.

For the mayor situation, it just seems so difficult to actually pick a good mayor at the beginning of the game. Everyone who's running seems like they have an equally valid reason for why people should vote for them. Hell, I probably would have run if I weren't temp banned.

My instincts tell me to vote for the flashy guy. Marshal seems like he would be a guy with a fancy looking suit based on the pretty pictures presented in his campaign post.
AirbladeOrange
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2574 Posts
April 10 2011 19:04 GMT
#662
Would any of the Mayor candidates think about taking out Dr. H?
AirbladeOrange
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2574 Posts
April 10 2011 19:16 GMT
#673
On April 11 2011 04:06 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 11 2011 04:04 AirbladeOrange wrote:
Would any of the Mayor candidates think about taking out Dr. H?

great idea did your mafia friends tell you to suggest it?


I'm thinking about voting for you for Mayor actually. But only if you will take me out. You can run on the kill airbladeorange platform.
AirbladeOrange
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2574 Posts
April 10 2011 20:07 GMT
#717
On April 11 2011 05:02 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 11 2011 04:56 Protactinium wrote:
So I have said that I want to help the town purely because of fun. You have no way to believe me, correct? Well how about I start proving what I said then. It's day 1, there's plenty of information out there to do some analysis and reveal a plan.

There are two ways mafia and/or assassins can react to my campaign.

1) Ignore my post or minimalize it
2) Actively fight against it

You can 100% bet that they will not be supporting my candidacy. Assassins in particular must be vocal. Naturally, they do not want me elected whatsoever. In addition assassins and mafia can and will freely attack me because it's very easy to make up some nonsense about why I should not be elected, and lo and behold, a number have already done that. Some will be townie, but I dare say there's a very nice probability that at least half are mafia or assassin.

The first point is also interesting. It would be rather unlikely for a townie to look at my candidacy and not have a strong opinion on it one way or another: it's a polarizing issue. You either like it or you don't. We'll cover that in a future post, as it caught a few other suspects.

List of People attacking my campaign, openly or subtly. AKA Mafia & Assassin list

    Gmarshal
    tnkted
    mig
    kitaman
    Kavdragon
    Wiggles
    Darmousseh
    Dropbear
    Robellicose
    Coagulation


Note that DoctorHelvetica is not on this list even though he is opposing me quite heavily, because he changed his stance over time. Upon seeing my campaign, Mafia and Assassins would instantly think "I don't want this guy in office" and their posts would reflect that. DoctorHelvetica, on the other hand, came in supporting me initially and changed his opnion over time upon reflecting on it more. I suppose this could have been an act but I'd rather go with Occam's Razor for now, making me think he is town.

This list will have for certain 1 assassin and highly likely both of them because they cannot let me get into office (yes there are 3 assassins). As the Assassins also know they are on this list, they will also find it very likely that their counterpart will be on the list too. However, this list is going to also have multiple mafia on it. I'm guessing 2-3. Why Mafia? Quite simply, they don't want an invincible double shot vigi and a free rolecheck visible to all, and also, someone who they absolutely cannot manipulate the town to kill.

The best part? The assassins only have 1 rolecheck and will have to fire into a group of people that has a high concentration of mafia in order to find their enemy. We can lynch from this list if you want, but tbh we really don't need to. Assassins will sort out the matter themselves or forfeit all chances of winning.

Lastly, a lot of people seem to be missing the point of my election, talking about some nonsense of how I might be mafia (LOL) or I won't help the town at all (which as you can see above is patently not true). However, who cares? The main points are:

1) You get TWO vigi hits, aka you double or more the town's non-lynch kp, and a dt check publicly known. This is quite important, as all too often dt's die before revealing any of their findings or are so trapped by fear that they won't reveal anything anyways.
2) You know I'm not mafia, so the town can't blow the game like it has many times in the past by lynching its own elected roles, of which there is a substantial and inherent pull to do.

tnkted is assassin probably

kavdragon/mib are mafia

gmarshal is probably town imo


What are your reasonings? I feel like its impossible to think we know much of anything at this point. How can you even say we "know you're not mafia?"

I may be the village idiot, but I acknowledge the fact that we don't really know anything. At least as a collective group.

Both Kavdragon and Gmarshal had decent posts for mayor, but you just never know. Unless you know thing that I or others do not.
AirbladeOrange
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2574 Posts
April 10 2011 20:17 GMT
#733
On April 11 2011 05:11 redFF wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 11 2011 05:09 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
On April 11 2011 05:06 tnkted wrote:
On April 11 2011 05:02 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
On April 11 2011 04:56 Protactinium wrote:
So I have said that I want to help the town purely because of fun. You have no way to believe me, correct? Well how about I start proving what I said then. It's day 1, there's plenty of information out there to do some analysis and reveal a plan.

There are two ways mafia and/or assassins can react to my campaign.

1) Ignore my post or minimalize it
2) Actively fight against it

You can 100% bet that they will not be supporting my candidacy. Assassins in particular must be vocal. Naturally, they do not want me elected whatsoever. In addition assassins and mafia can and will freely attack me because it's very easy to make up some nonsense about why I should not be elected, and lo and behold, a number have already done that. Some will be townie, but I dare say there's a very nice probability that at least half are mafia or assassin.

The first point is also interesting. It would be rather unlikely for a townie to look at my candidacy and not have a strong opinion on it one way or another: it's a polarizing issue. You either like it or you don't. We'll cover that in a future post, as it caught a few other suspects.

List of People attacking my campaign, openly or subtly. AKA Mafia & Assassin list

    Gmarshal
    tnkted
    mig
    kitaman
    Kavdragon
    Wiggles
    Darmousseh
    Dropbear
    Robellicose
    Coagulation


Note that DoctorHelvetica is not on this list even though he is opposing me quite heavily, because he changed his stance over time. Upon seeing my campaign, Mafia and Assassins would instantly think "I don't want this guy in office" and their posts would reflect that. DoctorHelvetica, on the other hand, came in supporting me initially and changed his opnion over time upon reflecting on it more. I suppose this could have been an act but I'd rather go with Occam's Razor for now, making me think he is town.

This list will have for certain 1 assassin and highly likely both of them because they cannot let me get into office (yes there are 3 assassins). As the Assassins also know they are on this list, they will also find it very likely that their counterpart will be on the list too. However, this list is going to also have multiple mafia on it. I'm guessing 2-3. Why Mafia? Quite simply, they don't want an invincible double shot vigi and a free rolecheck visible to all, and also, someone who they absolutely cannot manipulate the town to kill.

The best part? The assassins only have 1 rolecheck and will have to fire into a group of people that has a high concentration of mafia in order to find their enemy. We can lynch from this list if you want, but tbh we really don't need to. Assassins will sort out the matter themselves or forfeit all chances of winning.

Lastly, a lot of people seem to be missing the point of my election, talking about some nonsense of how I might be mafia (LOL) or I won't help the town at all (which as you can see above is patently not true). However, who cares? The main points are:

1) You get TWO vigi hits, aka you double or more the town's non-lynch kp, and a dt check publicly known. This is quite important, as all too often dt's die before revealing any of their findings or are so trapped by fear that they won't reveal anything anyways.
2) You know I'm not mafia, so the town can't blow the game like it has many times in the past by lynching its own elected roles, of which there is a substantial and inherent pull to do.

tnkted is assassin probably

kavdragon/mib are mafia

gmarshal is probably town imo


Sigh.

I'm not assassin. Look at protracts logic: anyone that disagrees with his arguments is mafia? Of course not. If I was black or mafia I'd be supporting his campaign along with everyone else because it would let be blend in much better and the tide of public opinion is extremely pro-protract at the moment. Scum doesn't vote for what makes sense to their game-plan unless they absolutely have to. They vote with public opinion because it lets them blend in better. Theres a reason people fear band wagoning so much.



im not pro-protact at all, that's just my read on you right now

i mean it's day 1 so these reads are shitty but i think the scum team is:
kavdragon
mib
aidnai
jackal58


and some other people idk, thats just a baseline guess i'm really only feeling good about kav and mib at the moment


So if DrH gets hit night one we have a pretty good mafia list.


Even if Dr. H got hit, it doesn't mean that everyone on that list is mafia. It doesn't even mean that ANYONE there is mafia. They could hit him to make it seem like the other guys on his suspicious list are mafia when they could just be town.
AirbladeOrange
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2574 Posts
April 10 2011 20:20 GMT
#740
On April 11 2011 05:14 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 11 2011 05:13 Coagulation wrote:
Why are people fucking not understanding this?

I think this whole assassin debate is pretty much derailing us from hunting scum. Mafia are probably most inclined to support this assassin in mayor SHIT because #1 it doesnt endanger themselves and #2 they get the benefit of having town deal with fucking assassins all fucking game instead of IGNORING THEM LIKE WE SHOULD and hunting scum. Fuck Pandains prolly the fucking GF What kind of idiot town would claim DT DAY 1 ? WTF.

pandain is a special kind of idiot

well at least we can be a duo of reason trying to push the town onto scumhunting

doctorhelvetica/coagulation '11??


Maybe it's just because I don't know Dr. H's style of play, but it just strikes me as being suspicious. But regardless he hasn't actually done anything yet to give us a reason to take action against him.

But I do agree with him and Coag that we need to not worry about assassins for now. Definitely keep it in mind, but if we focus too much on them it will certainly give us less of a chance getting the mafia.
AirbladeOrange
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2574 Posts
April 10 2011 20:44 GMT
#766
I'm feeling uneasy that claiming roles and shitting up a storm is helping to keep the mafia safe and the town not united.
AirbladeOrange
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2574 Posts
April 10 2011 21:21 GMT
#808
On April 11 2011 06:16 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 11 2011 06:14 Kavdragon wrote:
On April 10 2011 21:17 Barundar wrote:
Kavdragon, I feel you need to put more effort into your campaign, you posted a lot during night 0, but seem to have gone more quiet around your own candidacy.


Yes, sorry about that. Regardless of whether or not I win, I'm going to be trying to help everyone get jump started. I'm currently working on a rather large post, but it was interrupted by a sudden realization. I'll reveal later, but it wouldn't make sense to do so now. Hopefully I'll have both done by this afternoon.

i hope your realization is that i am scum


Stay tuned for the dramatic announcement!

I thought his posts before the game started were decent, but not I'm not so sure. I guess we can decide after the big announcement is made. I hope it's juicy.
AirbladeOrange
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2574 Posts
April 10 2011 21:34 GMT
#822
On April 11 2011 06:32 redFF wrote:
We need people who are obviously not going to be elected to either do a large post to cement their bid for mayor with solid reasoning or to withdraw their bids.


It seems like the only people have have a chance at winning all fit this description. Do you care to call anyone out or elaborate your thoughts?
AirbladeOrange
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2574 Posts
April 10 2011 21:46 GMT
#836
On April 11 2011 06:38 redFF wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 11 2011 06:35 kitaman27 wrote:
On April 11 2011 06:34 M0nsterChef wrote:
##Vote: Gmarshal


This guy is voting without posting.

List of inactives
Metalface-no posts since sign up
Ream- no posts since game started
Lattrommi-is he even playing??? was signed up by someone else and hasn't posted
TranceStorm- lurking hardcore
lemonwalrus- hasnt posted since day 1 began
milkyst- no posts since sign up
The_Roist- just posted above me for the first time XD
Jaminz- no post since sign up
DarthThienAn- no posts since day 1
M0nsterChef- hasn't posted since day 1, has 14 posts so could just not play.
Serejai- no posts since sign up

Thin we have found a newbie mafia?


I'd say it's highly unlikely the mafia is mostly inactive people. Lurking or being inactive doesn't really indicate you are town, mafia, or an assassin. It just either means you are not paying much attention to the game or you don't really know what to do.

It's always worth keeping track of who is lurking but I don't really see a lurker as a threat we can say should be lynched soon. I'm more concerned about active people are are trying to deceive the town. I'm moderately suspicious of Dr. H. still just because of how he came right out the the gate a little bit crazy. Kavdragon, as I mentioned earlier, started out seeming like town but seems to get more and more suspicious as the game goes on. Now he is just throwing around accusations that I don't fully understand.
AirbladeOrange
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2574 Posts
April 10 2011 22:21 GMT
#861
On April 11 2011 07:12 redFF wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 11 2011 06:56 GMarshal wrote:
EBWOP:
On April 11 2011 06:34 M0nsterChef wrote:
##Vote: Gmarshal


who the hell is this and why is he voting for me? He has no posts in the thread, right?


Inactive list
Metalface-no posts since sign up
Ream- no posts since game started
Lattrommi-is he even playing??? was signed up by someone else and hasn't posted
lemonwalrus- hasnt posted since day 1 began
milkyst- no posts since sign up
The_Roist- lurking
Jaminz- no post since sign up
DarthThienAn- no posts since day 1
M0nsterChef- hasn't posted since day 1, votes for gmarshall without posting.
Serejai- no posts since sign up


If we did go for a lurker, maybe we could do in M0nsterChef. It's really suspicious to vote relatively early without posing. If he showed up red, it could mean Marshal is red.
AirbladeOrange
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2574 Posts
April 11 2011 00:35 GMT
#935
My first post i said I was thinking about voting for Marshal. I had just come off of a ban and was giving my initial feeling from reading all those pages of mostly spam. It wasn't until a good amount later that I actually made a decision and voted. I didn't have a reason to vote against him, as Dr. H and Kav seemed more suspicious than him, and they were two of the other major contenders.

Later, I think it was I, who first mentioned that he might be red. The bandwagoning can be suspicious but really I don't put much stock into it. The last game of mafia I played the town bandwagons a lot especially in the early game. I don't really suspect Marshal, but of course it's possible.

M0nsterChef is either red or is just bad at the game. That's what I'm thinking. But I think there might be a correlation between him blindly voting for Marshal and possibly people bandwagoning. Even though bandwagoning doesn't mean much at this point, reds are very likely to bandwagon right now. If any red is bandwagoning it is probably a lurker like M0nsterChef. I say take him out unless there are any new developments that are meaningful. If he turns up red then we take down Marshal and check into the other bandwagoners.

I'm beginning to think Dr. is less scummy as this goes on and I really don't know what to make of Kav. He has good and helpful posts, to newer players like myself. Is being overly helpful suspicious? I guess. But I'm suspicious of everyone and everyone should be suspicious of everyone else as well. The key is to just not make rash decisions.

Dr. H. and Kav both have support for them saying that they are good players and this might be a good reason not to lynch either of them just yet.

I hope that wasn't too much rambling and I got my ideas out relatively clear. Ask any questions if you find flaws in my reasoning.
AirbladeOrange
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2574 Posts
April 11 2011 01:24 GMT
#959
On April 11 2011 09:45 Serejai wrote:
Hi guys, my name is Serejai. I don't really know how to play this game but I think I'm supposed to post about my experience making towns or something? So here goes.

When I was a kid I used to play Sim City quite a lot. I was only like seven or eight so I made some mistakes, but overall I did really well managing my cities (until I summoned aliens or godzilla to destroy them lol). Sometimes I think I let pollution get a tad out of hand, but it was pretty hard to balance industrial demand and pollution together so I just stuck the industrial areas in a corner surrounded by a ton of trees.

When I got a few years older, this game called Sim Town came out where you actually manage your own town and individual houses and shops. I was really good at this game in my opinion. It was a bit easier than Sim City because it was meant for younger kids, but I don't feel that detracts from my qualifications any.

I'm also really good with legos and I have a lego train and a bunch of lego city buildings. I dunno which sets exactly, but I built a lego town on my coffee table and I think I did pretty well (until my cat walks over it haha).

So I think I'm pretty good at town games and stuff.

Um, I'm also supposed to vote for someone I think? So...

##Vote GMarshal

I think he has the most votes so he's probably a veteran or something I guess (I don't really understand what I'm voting for but the thread says I have to...). The other guy with a lot of votes... Prostatetractor or whatever said he's an assassin... I don't think that's a good thing to vote for is it? If it is I may change my vote (if I can do that) but it sounds like he's just going to kill people or something.

Also I'm sorry for the late post, I'm not inactive so please don't ban me or anything. I've just had a busy day... had to plant flowers outside and cut some tree limbs.


I think we should do whatever he says. Best post in mafia history. Love it.
AirbladeOrange
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2574 Posts
April 11 2011 02:31 GMT
#988
I thought you were going to tone it down Dr. H?

And for the record I don't believe you to be scum anymore. I think you're just upfront and bitter. Fine by me as long as you are as good as people think you are at this game.
AirbladeOrange
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2574 Posts
April 11 2011 03:18 GMT
#1005
On April 11 2011 12:14 M0nsterChef wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 11 2011 11:31 redFF wrote:
On April 11 2011 11:24 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
I feel terrible abotu gmarshal right now. I think mayor should be me but everyone hates me so I guess kitaman27 is a rational choice.

Just to re iterate.

I AM RUNNING FOR MAYOR.

My platform:
-ignore assassin bullshit for the most part
-I'd consider protact for pardoner because
a. he will use his powers to help the town in exchange for the bodyguard protection so he can win his game
b. pardoner isn't a strong role for the town
-keep town focused on hunting scum
-ignore everything pandain and kenpachi say

so if those seem like things you like, you should vote for me. My top 3 lynch candidates are:
1. originalname
2. mig
3. kavdragon



That makes 2 of us. I have been pushing for a day one lynch of originalname for a while, I think you should consider m0nsterChef too. I will do everything I can do to try and convince people to not vote gmarshal as the amount of reasonless votes for him is still unfathomable. Yeah i'm stalling on who i vote for because i want to see more solid numbers. That being said:
##Unvote Protact
## Vote DrH

As i feel we need a rational town mayor as opposed to an assassin mayor, though i still want Protact as pardoner. 2 extra kills for town and a check guys come on.


This is the third time you have insisted on lynching me, yet provide no other reason other than that I voted for Gmarshal without explaining why. If you read a couple pages back you'll see why I voted for him in one of my posts.


Some people, including myself get suspicious when people vote but don't provide any reason or analysis or just what's on their mind. It's understandable, is it not? It gives the impression that you're hiding something. If you don't want people to have this impression than just try to contribute more. Until you do that there is a good chance people will see you as mafia.
AirbladeOrange
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2574 Posts
April 11 2011 05:23 GMT
#1025
I'm fine with lynching M0nsterChef or OriginalName.. It's not that I necessarily believe them 100% to be mafia, but they seem to be not helping out the town effort much. Either way both seem like decent candidates. Kav I'm still unsure of as well, but at least he provided good, if not suspiciously thorough, analysis/strategies for newer players.
AirbladeOrange
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2574 Posts
April 11 2011 05:31 GMT
#1028
On April 11 2011 14:28 Coagulation wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 11 2011 14:00 Protactinium wrote:
please elect me or I will die. I will do anything and say anything to get elected because frankly if I dont get elected I auto lose.


here I shortened your platform up for you.


Reds get desperate when they feel backed into a corner.
AirbladeOrange
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2574 Posts
April 11 2011 16:54 GMT
#1079
On April 11 2011 20:21 redFF wrote:
Finally, people listening to reason. DrH, Protact or kita, i dont care who it is, should be mayor. A day one lynch of OriginalName is a good idea. If he flips red, that means that Gmarshal is likely red, as are the other people who voted for him with little reasoning and leapt to each others defence when i called them out on it. M0nsterChef and AirbladeOrange. If original name flips red then we can also probably pin MiG because ON did a contentless analysis where he named him town. Town has to band together and vote for one of those 3.


I have only defended myself thus far. If anyone thinks I defended anyone else in a strong fashion they are mistaken. I want it to be clear that my top two suspicious people right now, as was yesterday as well, are M0nsterChef and OriginalName. I do, however, agree with redFF that if ON is red, we need to worry about Marshal. I think the case is the same with M0nsterChef just because he has barely posted and blindly voted for Marshal.

I still believe Marshal to be town, as with Dr. H. There is nothing that I feel I can be certain of at this point so I prefer to play safe and try to find the easier plays first. Getting rid of experienced guys like Dr. H (who is under less and less pressure now), Marshal (suffering from an extreme backlash because he got too many votes), and Kav (who I don't really know what to make of but would not be good to lynch first).

Marshal's situation is suspicious but not condemnable. I feel we should try to take out people who may be his pawns - OriginalName, N0nsterChef

I say as things stand right now go for one of these two and keep an eye on Marshal. I'm still good with electing him mayor as long as we don't forget the suspicions we experienced with the voting.

And coagulation - I have no idea what to make of this guy. I think he's just crazy.
AirbladeOrange
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2574 Posts
April 11 2011 19:04 GMT
#1128
On April 12 2011 03:22 chaoser wrote:
Hmmm, that's a good point...pardoner is just a prince of darkness...good catch GM. That means red in any type of elected position is powerful. Which means there's DEFINITELY a red run campaign out there.


Do reds generally run multiple people for mayor/pardoner, or just throw all their support to one of them?
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