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TL Mafia XXXVII - Page 77

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bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
March 03 2011 05:01 GMT
#1521
Oh, I knew it rounded-up but I didn't figure it like that. Interesting...?
Together but separate, like oatmeal
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
March 03 2011 05:06 GMT
#1522
That whole KP contradiction thing actually make sense now.
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
March 03 2011 05:07 GMT
#1523
Well I guess I am sorry LSB, a large part of my thought process wen through what you were planning with the RB and claiming and what not. Really cuts down the suspicion I have for you. Here I was thinking RoL might have handpicked the mafia and gave them a preset plan to teach town to scumhunt and think for themselves. I think I'm paranoid :/
Together but separate, like oatmeal
gryffindor
Profile Joined November 2009
United States524 Posts
March 03 2011 05:32 GMT
#1524
On March 03 2011 12:53 LSB wrote:
Hmm
That actually would make sense.
4 Grunts, and 1 Godfather.

That is 5 mafia total, so 2.5 KP + the godfather KP, giving them 3.5 KP.

They didn't use their power night one, so that means DT checks from night 1 are mostly reliable.
By using 1+ roleblocks night two, we can soft confirm both me and Jackal

LSB.................
no.

Also, your list of medic protection is a joke, and needs to be updated based on who is cleared through having, you know, lynched scum.

Annul - 10
Gofarman
deconduo
Ser Aspi
LSB
Kenpachi
astroorion
Gryffindor
GMarshal
Foolishness
chaoser
darmousseh
CubEdIn
Mr. Wiggles
kevconsim


Seraph - 7
Foolishness
why
LSB
Barundar
Jackal58
LunarDestiny
gryffindor
Ser Aspi

I updated the annul wagon with my PROPER positioning on it. RoL having me at the end was due to him having missed my vote, I guess. I voted when they were tied at 5-5, so I'm at the least the 6th voter on there, which I represented. Considering unvotes and such, and people coming off of it from before me, my positioning on it may have even increased, but, at the worst, my positioning on it was 6th out of 10.

Basically, considering who has been on both wagons, here is what we have:
Tier 1 of "who you should protect"
Foolishness
Ser Aspi
LSB
Gryffindor

i got blisters on me fingers
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
March 03 2011 07:09 GMT
#1525
First of all: congratulations to us.

Second of all: LOL at people screaming lynch GMarshal. GMarshal listed his PM’s with Seraph, which doesn’t looks forged, and which several people encouraged him to. GMarshal has been playing pro town all game and has been in contact with a number of people. He posted the PM’s in the thread, and has been clear in his reasoning.

Now I agree GMarshal hasn’t been playing the best, I even prodded him about his vote on JBright, and he would rather lynch LastArgument than seraph. But you are all putting way too much emphasis on people being linked together over actual behavioural analysis.

Third: LOL at people apologising to LSB, and LOL at LSB wanting medic protection. You think someone isn’t mafia because of 1 vote? While he does get some brownie points, LSB’s play is still mafia. Difference is he didn’t bus Seraph.

Let me break the lynch down for you: LSB threw a vote early on to Seraph. But he was casting doubt on the actual analysis while doing so, and he didn’t sound convinced. LSB doesn’t actually bother talking about Seraph or convince others to vote him. Instead he spams at best, and tries to divert at worst:
On March 03 2011 10:23 LSB wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 03 2011 10:16 Jackal58 wrote:
Town. Please stay active. Keep your eyes open.

All we need now is Pandain to run in and quickly switch the lynch to someone random.

On March 03 2011 10:25 LSB wrote:
Let me try.

EVERYONE LETS LYNCH BARUNDAR! QUICK QUICK QUICK

LSB didn’t believe in the actual lynch, and he certainly didn’t try to convince others. The only thing that gives LSB brownie points for this lynch, is to have had the votes on the right target, but it’s not like mafia can’t park a vote on their own afk team mate, who has strong cases against him. They just don’t want others to do the same. And LSB didn’t push for Seraph, he only put doubt on the case against him. Let’s not forget it was LSB who wanted GMarshal to publish Seraph’s PM’s.

Now who did push for Seraph?
Foolishness, obviously
Why
Myself + Show Spoiler +
I feel like the Jbright analysis is based more on "scumslips" than actual behavioral analysis. Quite contrary to the conclusions drawn by Ser Aspi, I don't see Jbright answering as a pressured scum. His silly reasons and distance from the game tells me bored townie rather than scum.
On March 03 2011 09:25 Barundar wrote:
Show nested quote +
Maybe I should have waited a bit but I felt like a good time to post it as I don't particularly like the JBright wagon right now.

Agreed with this, weak reasoning in the votes stacking on Jbright.

Jackal58 + Show Spoiler +
On March 03 2011 09:33 Jackal58 wrote:
Well screw waiting. kevconsim and Last Argument were much to fast and much to happy to both vote for Jbright.

UNVOTE: kevconsim
##VOTE: Seraph


I urge you all to do the same.

Ser Aspi + Show Spoiler +
On March 03 2011 10:01 Ser Aspi wrote:
After seeing all these silent voters come out of the woodwork and vote jbright with no rationale Im feeling rather uneasy. My analysis of him was hardly foolproof, i just saw some shady points and wanted to push his buttons a little and I'm not convinced after what's happened.

Seraph on the other hand, let's just say he's pushing some agendas that help the mafia and the contrast of his spamminess pregame and total silence in game is too striking. Jbright might be just a useless townie who I hope fixes his act pronto, but Seraph has something to hide.

##vote: Seraph



All of these are most likely town, along with deconduo who started the day 1 bandwagon. I encourage to protect any of them, but favourite is Foolishness.

So, who should we lynch tomorrow? LSB?
If we have a vigilante out there, then kill LSB. He is still scum, and town has huge problems seeing through his play. He is exactly the kind of scum that you need to use vigi shot on, he is high profile and charismatic, making him difficult to lynch. We will most likely have to drag him to lylo if he doesn’t get vigi killed.

There is someone I think is a way better lynch target for tomorrow, Kevconsim.
Kevcon has been bandwagoning every day, with little reasoning. Upon his suspicious unvote yesterday, I decided to pressure him in PM’s to see if I could actually force an opinion out of him:

Original Message From Barundar:
Just unvoting when put under pressure doesn't make you look more town. What do you think of Seraph and LD


Original Message From kevconsim:
The only reason i did vote was because i thought voting ended today.
I dont trust LD i havent since Day 2. I trust Seraph more than LD but i dont like how he can say one thing and do another.


Original Message From Barundar:
But why do you trust them? What makes LD more suspecious to you? And what makes Seraph less?


Original Message From kevconsim:
Day 1
1. We lynch annul.
2. Mafia are incapable of getting the lynch off of annul. This means they do not have players who are prominent or have a lot of influence.
LD is playing a really quiet game compared to other games he has played in.

Seraph is not being as quiet.


Message from me he never replied to:
LD has posted alot more than Seraph. Try and have a look at the post count. Since LD has posted more than seraph, does that make you reevaluate your suspecions?


It’s quite impossible to force an opinion out of him, and it’s funny how he couldn’t be forced to vote Seraph over LD even when he based his vote on post count. Objectively post count should lead to voting seraph.
Bartundar
gryffindor
Profile Joined November 2009
United States524 Posts
March 03 2011 07:28 GMT
#1526
Your "pushing" of Seraph reads more of a defense of JBright.
If JBright is scum, it is easier to defend him and dismiss him as a village idiot, which makes you not clear whatsoever. That is why my list is much more solid, as it is sheerly based upon voting analysis. I also dislike the way you are saying Jackal is cleared through this, as his was primarily a one liner. I am not really suspicious of either of you. Here is the list I have on a word document on my desktop, I will share it with you, though I probably shouldn't.

Townie
gryffindor - I know my role
Foolishness - Has been on both scum wagons, doing detailed analysis/scumhunting
LSB - Has been on both scum wagons, spotlighting, and trying to scumhunt... somewhat.
Ser Aspi - Has been on both scum wagons, and made a few good cases
deconduo - behavior seems protown
Jackal58 - roleblocked, supposedly
Barundar - Realized the contradiction between LSB being roleblocked, and greenclaim
chaoser - weak meta town read
bumatlarge - the slot he replaced into was suspicious, but he has been helping that.
Coagulation - this is the first person I am more than mildly suspicious of, although less so
CubEdIn - He was above coagulation, chaoser, and jackal on earlier days. Increased suspicion.
kevconsim - He was one of my strongest town reads after the Annul wagon, less so now.
why - I felt he was likely town before, but I've been liking his play less recently
LunarDestiny - has actually helped himself somewhat with a few wall posts. Unsure.
GMarshal - associative tells with Annul and Seraph
JBright - seems like noob town, but could be noob scum
LastArgument - lurking hardcore. blue/red?
ohN - lurking hardcore. blue/red/doesn't care? He's been modkilled before
Scummy

If you actually read the PMs between GMarshal and kevconsim, it is very apparent to me that kevconsim genuinely wanted to lynch annul (which I could tell d1). He was a very strong town read on d1 for me. He is not a good lynch target in my opinion, and in fact, I will be moving him back up my list a little bit after reading those PMs. In fact, those PMs damn GMarshal even more for me, as I feel he was fishing to see what kevconsim's reaction was to JBright.

I do not believe the 4 scum are on the bottom of my list. In fact, that would surprise me way more than one of Foolishness/LSB being scum, unless RoL just randomized roles. I would fully expect a few of the middle of the road players like bumatlarge or coagulation to be scum. When I say middle of the road, I mean in terms of scumminess, not play ability.
i got blisters on me fingers
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
March 03 2011 07:40 GMT
#1527
I like your list gryff, and on the whole I pretty much agree. I also think you are town. Difference between me and you is I look more at tone and arguments than at votes, but both have their right in scumhunting. Your list is objectively strong, it's only if you accept my argument on a day 1 bus on annul, that LSB moves to the bottom of it.

Kevcon voted icemac day 1, but suddenly decided to change to annul. I see him as a mafia busser.

GMarshal, Cubedin and LunarDestiny are players that I am leaning town on from their arguments and tone, but who I have problems with objectively. What have they actually done?

I have been defending OhN and LastArgument in PM's, LA based on day 1 PM behaviour, OhN beceause of his posting. But as they fall inactive and doesn't contribute, my suspecion increases.
Bartundar
CubEdIn
Profile Blog Joined April 2006
Romania5359 Posts
March 03 2011 10:28 GMT
#1528
Good Yob town.

However, as I said before the lynch, we should not lose focus on either of the two.
Also, I think we should have a short discussion of who the Vig should hit (IF he were to hit someone tonight).

Do we have a solid target for a vig hit? I'd like to see people who are lurking go belly-up, JBright included.

I also don't like how Gryph is adding himself on the medic protect list just because he voted for both scum. I mean, I know it's up to the medics in the end, but I find that that move was almost as to say "I'm confirmed town".
Right now, I'm not putting it past anyone to be red, as Mafia seemed to have no issue with busing so far.
Im not a n00b, I just play like one.
Jackal58
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4264 Posts
March 03 2011 13:35 GMT
#1529
On March 03 2011 14:01 bumatlarge wrote:
Oh, I knew it rounded-up but I didn't figure it like that. Interesting...?

How did you figure it and when did you tell RoL you wanted your .5 kp back?
Life can only kill you once.
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
March 03 2011 16:43 GMT
#1530
On March 03 2011 22:35 Jackal58 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 03 2011 14:01 bumatlarge wrote:
Oh, I knew it rounded-up but I didn't figure it like that. Interesting...?

How did you figure it and when did you tell RoL you wanted your .5 kp back?


I assumed when he said round-up, that you could get 4 kills if it was at 3.5. I didn't think you could throw in two roleblocks and squeak out 3 kills with 3.5.

You want to take this outside bro?
Together but separate, like oatmeal
CubEdIn
Profile Blog Joined April 2006
Romania5359 Posts
March 03 2011 17:45 GMT
#1531
On March 04 2011 01:43 bumatlarge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 03 2011 22:35 Jackal58 wrote:
On March 03 2011 14:01 bumatlarge wrote:
Oh, I knew it rounded-up but I didn't figure it like that. Interesting...?

How did you figure it and when did you tell RoL you wanted your .5 kp back?


I assumed when he said round-up, that you could get 4 kills if it was at 3.5. I didn't think you could throw in two roleblocks and squeak out 3 kills with 3.5.

You want to take this outside bro?


Ok but why would mafia RB two people and kill three instead of killing four at this stage of the game.
Am I missing something here?
Im not a n00b, I just play like one.
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
March 03 2011 17:48 GMT
#1532
On March 04 2011 02:45 CubEdIn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 04 2011 01:43 bumatlarge wrote:
On March 03 2011 22:35 Jackal58 wrote:
On March 03 2011 14:01 bumatlarge wrote:
Oh, I knew it rounded-up but I didn't figure it like that. Interesting...?

How did you figure it and when did you tell RoL you wanted your .5 kp back?


I assumed when he said round-up, that you could get 4 kills if it was at 3.5. I didn't think you could throw in two roleblocks and squeak out 3 kills with 3.5.

You want to take this outside bro?


Ok but why would mafia RB two people and kill three instead of killing four at this stage of the game.
Am I missing something here?

I don't think Rol would have allowed it.
I think he just said that he would give them an 'extra' .5 action, rather than using an entire KP which is just mad and abusive
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
Jackal58
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4264 Posts
March 03 2011 18:59 GMT
#1533
On March 04 2011 02:45 CubEdIn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 04 2011 01:43 bumatlarge wrote:
On March 03 2011 22:35 Jackal58 wrote:
On March 03 2011 14:01 bumatlarge wrote:
Oh, I knew it rounded-up but I didn't figure it like that. Interesting...?

How did you figure it and when did you tell RoL you wanted your .5 kp back?


I assumed when he said round-up, that you could get 4 kills if it was at 3.5. I didn't think you could throw in two roleblocks and squeak out 3 kills with 3.5.

You want to take this outside bro?


Ok but why would mafia RB two people and kill three instead of killing four at this stage of the game.
Am I missing something here?

They weren't role blocking. They were trying to snipe two veterans.
Life can only kill you once.
Jackal58
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4264 Posts
March 03 2011 19:03 GMT
#1534
Never mind. That would be role reversal.
I shouldn't try posting while I'm at work.
Life can only kill you once.
RebirthOfLeGenD
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
USA5860 Posts
March 03 2011 19:52 GMT
#1535
On March 04 2011 01:43 bumatlarge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 03 2011 22:35 Jackal58 wrote:
On March 03 2011 14:01 bumatlarge wrote:
Oh, I knew it rounded-up but I didn't figure it like that. Interesting...?

How did you figure it and when did you tell RoL you wanted your .5 kp back?


I assumed when he said round-up, that you could get 4 kills if it was at 3.5. I didn't think you could throw in two roleblocks and squeak out 3 kills with 3.5.

You want to take this outside bro?

3.5 with 2 RB's would drop the KP to 2.5 which rounds up to 3 kills.
Be a man, Become a Legend. TL Mafia Forum Ask for access!!
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
March 03 2011 21:28 GMT
#1536
On March 04 2011 04:52 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 04 2011 01:43 bumatlarge wrote:
On March 03 2011 22:35 Jackal58 wrote:
On March 03 2011 14:01 bumatlarge wrote:
Oh, I knew it rounded-up but I didn't figure it like that. Interesting...?

How did you figure it and when did you tell RoL you wanted your .5 kp back?


I assumed when he said round-up, that you could get 4 kills if it was at 3.5. I didn't think you could throw in two roleblocks and squeak out 3 kills with 3.5.

You want to take this outside bro?

3.5 with 2 RB's would drop the KP to 2.5 which rounds up to 3 kills.


Precisely, thank you for the clarification.
Together but separate, like oatmeal
why
Profile Joined May 2009
United States215 Posts
March 03 2011 23:11 GMT
#1537
I was going to wait to post for day to post this, but I realized that if I died it would all be for nothing and that would suck.

First of all, unlike the annul lynch, since the votes for Seraph were so close and there was a reasonable chance of having the JBright wagon win (especially since the only reason Seraph won was because of a late shift) the vote lists for Day 3 should be looked at closely. The 5 (non-Jbright) people who voted for JBright were:

GMarshal, chaoser, CubEdIn, kevconsim, and LastArgument

I think it extremely likely that at least a couple of these are scum. Barundar already posted a good analysis on why kevconsim is a good candidate for lynch. But I want to introduce another lynch candidate: CubedIn, who I think is likely scum.

Day 1:

All throughout Day 1 Cubedin tries to say that annul isn't the best lynch while at the same time making sure he joins the wagon once it reaches the sweet-spot of after the point of no return but before it look way scummy to join the wagon. He also refuses to commit to an opinion.

This is Cubedin's first post of substance:
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 24 2011 19:14 CubEdIn wrote:
Ok ok.

I had a bit of time to go through the thread, and most likely I will be a bit more free at work today so hopefully I'll contribute more.
But this is what I got so far:

1. Icemac vs Gmarshall.
I don't think either of them is scum, and here is why:
Gmarshall did play a bit different in Mafia 36, but the reason for that was, he was picked Bodyguard on day one. Which means that his place was safe, at least for the first few days. Nobdy was going to lynch him, even if several people would FoS him, which gives one a nice, safe place in the game.
In this game, however, he does not have that advantage, so I think it's somewhat normal that he's a bit more touchy, a bit more aggressive, but at least he's trying to provide decent information and come up with a somewhat-well-though-out-plan.
Basically, the only problem with his plan is that a bunch of the cells could be mafia-infested, but that can also work to town's advantage if the greens in the circle can figure out that the red is trying to play them. As far as nobody claims early, it should be ok, IMO.
Besides, like LSB said, you can't really STOP any kind of town circle as long as PMs are allowed, so there's no reason I can think of to try to stop town this. At best, this is a more "imposed" cell that any player can embrace or ignore. I don't think it can be considered scummish.

Icemac, on the other hand, is a smurf, so I can't know what he's usually like, but I'm guessing that he played with us before, and that's why he's being overly aggressive in some instances. I don't think that makes him scum though, especially if he played in Mafia 36 and he's got an idea about what GM "should play like", and isn't.
If he didn't play with us before, he might just be a tad on the aggressive side by nature. I don't see why this is considered a bad thing, and I don't see why it's a reason to vote for him. To me, most of the things he said come out as being townish.
Either way, it's not really a reason go wagon him no matter how you look at it, and I'm quite suspicious of the players that ganged him so fast.

2. LSB vs. Annul
These are both quite experienced players, so I don't think you could get a "read" out of either of them. But it is reminiscent of the way LSB started out Harry Potter Mafia (when we were mafia together), and he was attacking RoL all over. Which lead to both of them being lynched and clearing up DrH of accusation for quite some time.
Now I'm not saying LSB is doing this, I'm saying that EITHER of them could be doing this. Or they can both be town or both mafias.
I know this is inconclusive, but my "bottom line" would be... don't go for either of them until there's further proof. If you don't know what I'm talking about, go read through the first two days of HP mafia.

3. Ser Aspi
This is the most suspicious player to me so far, mostly based on one post:
Show nested quote +
On February 24 2011 12:48 Ser Aspi wrote:
On February 24 2011 12:16 annul wrote:
oh hey another smurf

why the fuck does everyone smurf? why are you all afraid of your skill?


cute way to sidetrack the debate off your scummy play. "HE POSTED LOGIC SMURFFFFF AHHHHH IGNORE ME" Sorry if I forgot about tl mafia and been busy playing at epicmafia and mafiascum for the past year.

Naturally you don't actually respond to what I said. Even more interesting, a smurf would be someone more knowledgeable than a new player. For you to think that I am a smurf immediately means that you felt what I said had merit. Thus that means you know better, which means you are scum bullshiting.

vote## Annul

Im gonna knock you off your broomstick boy


This is weird, really weird. Mostly because it came RIGHT after LSB made some decent points against Annul. If he wanted to vote for Annul he'd have had a lot of damn good reasons by just "believing" LSB's analysis. But instead he goes and basically OMGUS-votes Annul. Why on earth would you do something like that?
Now, I'm not saying he's not right about the smurf/experienced thing on Annul, but he basically voted for him because Annul pointed him out for being a smurf, and he openly admitted that.
That's most fishy to me, out of everything I read so far.

The second suspect would be Jackal, but I doubt it's a good idea to lynch him over just two posts (like Ser Aspi too, actually). I don't find it odd that he's not being overly aggressive as usual, because it's very early in the game, but I do find it odd that he made the remark about the PM. That does seem a bit off-character.

That being said, I don't have any idea of who to vote for actually, at least not yet. But I do know one thing: If Annul and/or LSB are not scum, they'll probably be taken out pretty early in the game, so I don't think it's smart for town to lynch either of them (especially not LSB, since he seems to be a target for Mafia early on when he's red, and if he IS mafia, then he has a pretty pro-town way of playing it, so I think it's safe either way).


He soft defends annul by saying that we should wait for further proof before we lynch him here:
I know this is inconclusive, but my "bottom line" would be... don't go for either of them [LSB or annul] until there's further proof. If you don't know what I'm talking about, go read through the first two days of HP mafia."

and here:
That being said, I don't have any idea of who to vote for actually, at least not yet. But I do know one thing: If Annul and/or LSB are not scum, they'll probably be taken out pretty early in the game, so I don't think it's smart for town to lynch either of them (especially not LSB, since he seems to be a target for Mafia early on when he's red, and if he IS mafia, then he has a pretty pro-town way of playing it, so I think it's safe either way).

and also attacks the latest addition to the annul bandwagon, Ser Aspi, with this:
This is weird, really weird. Mostly because it came RIGHT after LSB made some decent points against Annul. If he wanted to vote for Annul he'd have had a lot of damn good reasons by just "believing" LSB's analysis. But instead he goes and basically OMGUS-votes Annul. Why on earth would you do something like that?


The points he makes are fairly valid, but he is clearly arguing against the annul lynch at this point. Note that he also throws 2 FoS's around (on Ser Aspi and Jackal) and then backs off them by saying that we should vote for people off one or two votes. In other words, he is being extremely indecisive and wants to leave his options open. Definitely something a scum waiting to see how the wind blows on annul would post.

Speaking of wind blowing, here's his "I vote annul" post:
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 25 2011 06:33 CubEdIn wrote:
I find it very scummy that someone gets to tell me that I have to change my vote to one of the two (Granted, I didn't vote yet, but let's assume I had my vote on Ser Aspi).

Who are you (Gryff) to tell me I have to change my vote? It's a game. It's definitely not LYLO. I can vote whoeverthehell I want. You disagree? Then try to get my lynch afterwards, but don't try and influence the vote while it's going on without any serious reason.

You think it's scummy that some people can have their own opinion that's not similar to what everyone else says? How so? Is it not scummier to band wagon someone?


That being said, I am going to bandwagon! But not because I don't have the balls to stick to my own choice, but because I found annul's downward spiral to be quite scummy. He seemed OK at first but then started to respond aggressively to the posts, which is exactly what I do when I'm scum.
I still think that it's a bad idea overall to lynch someone with decent experience on day 1. I would much rather have annul as a day 2 lynch or so, but I already explained why I really doubt Icemac is town, and his posts made me think so even more.
Also, RoL's intervention made me think that gryff (my 2nd in line choice, after S.A.) is town, because if he'd be mafia, the mod-intervention would be imba. And I know from when I was mafia in 36 that the mods posting in the thread is 90% to stop the town from taking the fast train to nowhere.

That being said, I sure hope LSB is not wrong about this
##Vote Annul


Note that he spends the first half of the post getting worked up about being told he should bandwagon. I interpret this as the real CubedIn, he doesn't like to bandwagon unless he has been convinced that the vote is best for town. Then, as he himself acknowledges, he goes against his own tendencies to vote for annul even though he still doesn't think its the best lynch:
I still think that it's a bad idea overall to lynch someone with decent experience on day 1. I would much rather have annul as a day 2 lynch or so, but I already explained why I really doubt Icemac is town, and his posts made me think so even more.

So, why would he do this? Well, one explanation is that no one is scummier exists (although I think he says in the quote above that icemac is more likely mafia than annul, pretty sure there's a typo somewhere). The better explanation that fits all the data is that Cubed is mafia and wants to get on the annul bandwagon since it is really likely annul will be lynched.

Day #3

Again, Cubedin fails to commit to any kind of opinion on the lynch until late. When he ends up on JBright, the vote post reads more like an excuse for not voting for Seraph.

This is the first mention of CubedIn liking JBright more than Seraph or LD and, as was noted by lots of people, it was a very scummy argument that a) didn't involve any work on his part and b) doesn't actually address the most important part of any lynch, which is whether the person in question is scum or not.

On March 03 2011 05:06 CubEdIn wrote:
And one last thing:

Two games ago, someone said to me (I dunno if it was Barundar or LSB or someone else, doesn't matter), that you have to lynch for information. Who do we get most information out of?

I would guess Jbright because it gives us more information on the people "tied" to him (Seraph and LD, was it? Or someone else I'm missing, I didn't have time to go back through the thread all the way).


When Barundar asks Cubed, very reasonably, to specify why Cubed picked JBright over Seraph or LD, Cubed responds with:

On March 03 2011 05:44 CubEdIn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 03 2011 05:18 Barundar wrote:
And one more thing cubed, why would you want to lynch Jbright over seraph, who has a few analysis he hasnt responded to, and is leading in votes? What do you actually think of Seraph and LSB?


Either is fine with me. Be it Jbright, Seraph or Chaoser.
I chose Jbright because I saw a post where someone was grouping them together (JBright/Seraph/LD i think but I can't find it right now).

I need to look through the thread again, but it was basically saying that if one of them is red it's highly likely that all three of them are.
If it comes to it, I'll look, but, as I said, I'm ok with either.
And to a lesser extent, I'd be ok with LD, but he seems to have picked up his posting a bit so I'm not willing to peg him as scum just yet.
I am very much against the LSB lynch though, since he's one of the more experienced players, and people seem to be quite quick at jumping on the wagon. Bumatlarge made some interesting points, but it seems that we are dismissing the day-1 lynch which was largely attributed to LSB.

Of course you can say it was luck (as he was probably gonna buss annul anyway), or that it's a complicated mafia plan, but the fact of the matter is that it got us a dead mafia.

Also, Barundar, you're saying that you want to be lynching the mafia, but are you 100% LSB is red? Are we going over that whole "nobody should be sure" thing again?


The post doesn't really answer Barundar's question. He randomly references one of Ser Aspi's posts that was made at the end of Night 2 as his support for not caring which of the 3 (of Jbright, Seraph, and Chaoser (?)) die. This is just a really strange attitude for a townie to have. There are three choices and it pretty unlikely that all three of them are mafia. Any townie would be looking over the three's posts to try and see which of the three was the most scummy to them. CubedIn just doesn't really care.
So, this behavior doesn't make sense as town, but does it make sense as mafia? Of course it does. It is basically the same thing as the annul lynch. CubedIn wants to delay for as long as possible so he can vote Seraph if it looks like the Seraph lynch is inevitable (or if JBright is definitely going to get lynched) or can jump on JBright if he needs to.

This is the post where Cubedin votes for JBright:

On March 03 2011 08:43 CubEdIn wrote:
Ok I'll vote for JBright as well.

I went with Foolishness' idea and thought hard about the two: Seraph and JBright.
There are more reasons to pick Jbright though:
1. His inactivity (I found like 12 posts of his, as opposed to 29 of Seraph, I don't know if I counted right but that's half the posts either way), I know this doesn't mean much but it's a start.
2. Coag's reasoning: He brought him up early, then others have been brought up. It's pretty clear that this mafia team is not defending their members, since Annul's lynch went pretty easy, but derailing lynches is a must if they want to survive. I'm inclined to think this can also be a clue.
3. I have looked at Foolishness' analysis of Seraph and I'm not convinced. It's basically a posting habits analysis, and albeit pretty conclusive, it doesn't necessarily mean he is red. Yes, he's behaving oddly, but not scummier than JB.

That being said though, even if Jbright flips green, I think it's a good idea to get rid of Seraph tomorrow (meaning, not lose track of him after nightfall). I went back a good number of pages and didn't find any relevant clues that the two are tied together, so I don't think that they are very much connected by anything other than WIFOM. Or, if a vet wants to shoot someone, I think he would make a better target than LSB. My two cents.

##vote JBright


To start with, CubedIn needs to make a vote at this point because he is leaving for the night. As mafia, he needs to vote for JBright at this point because it was close between JBright and Seraph. Of course he could just be a town voting for the wrong person. However, this explanation doesn't hold up as we realize that Cubed can't come up with many reasons to vote JBright. Reasons 1 and 2 are both questionable reasons at best and 3 is essentially saying why Seraph isn't likely mafia. Never does Cubed actually come up with a reason that JBright is mafia based on JB's actual posts, when this is the first thing a townie would do.

And then, in the last paragraph, Cubed says that we should continue to look at Seraph after the lynch. This covers him in case Seraph dies and makes him sound like he was almost suspicious enough of Seraph to vote him, but was just a little more suspicious of JBright. In other words, it is a way to distance himself from his own opinion.

On March 03 2011 09:07 CubEdIn wrote:

Show nested quote +
On March 03 2011 08:54 Barundar wrote:
On March 03 2011 08:44 CubEdIn wrote:
On March 03 2011 08:39 Barundar wrote:
#Vote Seraph
The case against seraph is a lot stronger than against Jbright.


How so?
I'm not mocking, I'm genuinely asking, because I've been over the past 10 pages or so and I think JB is much scummier.

I feel like the Jbright analysis is based more on "scumslips" than actual behavioral analysis. Quite contrary to the conclusions drawn by Ser Aspi, I don't see Jbright answering as a pressured scum. His silly reasons and distance from the game tells me bored townie rather than scum.


That's true, but Ser Aspi made equally reasonable posts about JB as well (in day one as well as day two). I don't particularly like the guy, but he did bring up some good points, and he seems to think that both are scum, if anything, JB more than Seraph.

I suggest we get rid of both, and whoever wins the tally gets lynched while the other one gets vig-shot.
But I am sticking with Jbright for tonight. The fact that a bunch of alternative suggestions popped up makes me think Coag may be on to something..


And here Cubed pushes for JBright a bit, but again not hard enough to arouse suspicion should Seraph get lynched. For someone who thinks that a Seraph/JBright lynch is pretty much a wash, he seemed to be pushing for JBright pretty hard.

Conclusion: Cubedin acted the same in both scum lynches: holding off until the last possible minute to give a solid opinion while subtly defending the scum. He then makes the best possible mafia vote. It could all be coincidence, but given his posting I think he's probably scum.

If it were day, I would vote CubedIn.
gryffindor
Profile Joined November 2009
United States524 Posts
March 03 2011 23:22 GMT
#1538
On March 03 2011 16:40 Barundar wrote:
I like your list gryff, and on the whole I pretty much agree. I also think you are town. Difference between me and you is I look more at tone and arguments than at votes, but both have their right in scumhunting. Your list is objectively strong, it's only if you accept my argument on a day 1 bus on annul, that LSB moves to the bottom of it.

Kevcon voted icemac day 1, but suddenly decided to change to annul. I see him as a mafia busser.

GMarshal, Cubedin and LunarDestiny are players that I am leaning town on from their arguments and tone, but who I have problems with objectively. What have they actually done?

I have been defending OhN and LastArgument in PM's, LA based on day 1 PM behaviour, OhN beceause of his posting. But as they fall inactive and doesn't contribute, my suspecion increases.

Thanks. I don't mind tone and arguments, that is why I am suspicious of GMarshal. I feel as if he has been testing the waters on who he can get lynched in PM land towards both myself and kevonsim, I believe the FoS annul put on him, when voting someone else, was faked... and I have yet to see him really help us get rid of scum. I believe he is trying to fake being town, and this is not what I've seen from him as town. Cubedin I have been leaning town on as well, but his play has slipped a little today, and I feel he is slinging a little mud towards people who are somewhat clear.

If we lose ohn/LA, and they are town, no big deal. They are both likely modkills.

p.s., you can't even spell suspicion + Show Spoiler +
jk + Show Spoiler +
no, but really


On March 03 2011 19:28 CubEdIn wrote:
Good Yob town.

However, as I said before the lynch, we should not lose focus on either of the two.
Also, I think we should have a short discussion of who the Vig should hit (IF he were to hit someone tonight).

Do we have a solid target for a vig hit? I'd like to see people who are lurking go belly-up, JBright included.

I also don't like how Gryph is adding himself on the medic protect list just because he voted for both scum. I mean, I know it's up to the medics in the end, but I find that that move was almost as to say "I'm confirmed town".
Right now, I'm not putting it past anyone to be red, as Mafia seemed to have no issue with busing so far.

I'm not saying "I'm confirmed town",
I'm saying "mafia will possibly consider people will view me as likely town"
However, being only a green, it might be best to let me die

TL prides itself on "blue sniping", as Foolishness put it, and though he believes the person sending in the hits has been doing a good job of that, I disagree. I hope I don't eat my words on that, though.

On March 04 2011 01:43 bumatlarge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 03 2011 22:35 Jackal58 wrote:
On March 03 2011 14:01 bumatlarge wrote:
Oh, I knew it rounded-up but I didn't figure it like that. Interesting...?

How did you figure it and when did you tell RoL you wanted your .5 kp back?


I assumed when he said round-up, that you could get 4 kills if it was at 3.5. I didn't think you could throw in two roleblocks and squeak out 3 kills with 3.5.

You want to take this outside bro?

The last time I said that, or wanted to, I was scum
Just sayin'.

On March 04 2011 02:48 LSB wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 04 2011 02:45 CubEdIn wrote:
On March 04 2011 01:43 bumatlarge wrote:
On March 03 2011 22:35 Jackal58 wrote:
On March 03 2011 14:01 bumatlarge wrote:
Oh, I knew it rounded-up but I didn't figure it like that. Interesting...?

How did you figure it and when did you tell RoL you wanted your .5 kp back?


I assumed when he said round-up, that you could get 4 kills if it was at 3.5. I didn't think you could throw in two roleblocks and squeak out 3 kills with 3.5.

You want to take this outside bro?


Ok but why would mafia RB two people and kill three instead of killing four at this stage of the game.
Am I missing something here?

I don't think Rol would have allowed it.
I think he just said that he would give them an 'extra' .5 action, rather than using an entire KP which is just mad and abusive

Agree with LSB.
Also beginning to seriously shift towards him being green. He felt very.. um.. nervous? No... "up in arms" on d2, as if all he had was his voice and his vote. Now that he is somewhat clear, in my book, he has calmed down and is being very pro-town here.


I have to go meet my girlfriend and her sister for some mexican, so I didn't get to read Why's post fully yet, but I like the effort. I'll read it when I get back/time.
i got blisters on me fingers
Foolishness *
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States3044 Posts
March 04 2011 00:03 GMT
#1539
Given how this is punishment for Salem, it is very safe to say there are a minimal amount of blue roles. In fact I am of the opinion there are currently no blues alive right now.

At any rate, town should always play as if there are no blues alive, and assume the worse case scenario. If there are any blues still alive that's great, but our job is to find mafia, not blue roles.
geript: "Foolishness's cases are persuasive and reasonable but leave you feeling dirty afterwards. Kinda like a whore." ---- Manager of the TL Mafia forum, come play!
Jackal58
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4264 Posts
March 04 2011 01:02 GMT
#1540
I hate night.
GMarshall - You're being to damned agreeable. Your play is reminding me of Clues and Puzzles.
Life can only kill you once.
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