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On January 30 2011 23:09 Jackal58 wrote:
Coag's insanity is contagious. Nemesis and Beneather are both the players implicated in the clues. Both almost verbatim. But you guys want to run a stretch play.
Here are the members of my bandwagon. .
Nemesis
Impervious
Coagulation
Beneather
LunarDestiny
darmousseh
Some names look really familiar don't they?
Looking at your profile, there's not much there. One big fucking obvious thing is big Ben..... Wearing a BLACK uniform and part of the STEELers football team.....
Plus, you seem to be relatively inactive, and the hosts specifically mentioned that they left clues to someone who was not active during the night..... My bet is you're a SK.....
It's not hard to put the pieces together, man..... There's no real band-wagonning going on..... I'm much more convinced that you're a SK than that Beneather is mafia (although it definitely looks like a possibility, so I'd probably be voting for him tomorrow - no guarantees, it'll depend on how things go).
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I saw 3. All 3 were talking about the SK.
Doesn't mean you submitted a night action though.
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Wow. I missed one post of yours in a space of, what, 10 pages?
Suddenly you're under fire and you backlash directly onto the people voting for you, rather than offer anything constructive (short of a list of who are voting for you)?
Coagulation
Beneather
LunarDestiny
darmousseh
Nemesis
You've basically listed the group that I thought were mafia, except you've added me in on that, simply because I've voted for you..... I've already voted once for Coag (I was hoping we'd get him). However, I'm starting to think that he's actually not a mafia.
If you noticed, Beneather, LunarDestiny, darmousseh, and Nemesis all voted for RoL yesterday, and we found out that it was a town kill, not a mafia kill. I agree with your analysis on them, ofc.
But they can wait.
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I'm not sure of figuring out the SK numbers is the right move. We should be able to make an educated guess on the number of SK based on the KP used at nights. If we keep censusing the Mafia instead, we can see if we got a hit, and likely be able to narrow down our focus on other mafia as well.
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On January 31 2011 02:18 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2011 01:30 BrownBear wrote:
Jackal, stop it with the OMGUS, he's right in that clues do point to you.
Could it be possible that one of the modkills, RoL, or OriginalName was the SK, so the SK is dead already? I think next night cycle we should census the number of SKs left in the game, it would be great if we managed to nail him this early.
I'm dropping a vote on Jackal for now, he's not posting constructively + clues point to him. I'm going to throw up some analysis later, but it would be amazing if it wasn't just me + bum + Kav doing the huge analysis posts... Defending myself is not constructive? Pointing out the members of the bandwagon, 2 of whom are obvious scum/SK, is not constructive? Pointing out that the person calling me "inactive" has ZERO posts in the time he called me inactive is not constructive? Pointing out our 2 prime candidates also had ZERO posts during night and one of them didn't post their night actions is not constructive? Pointing out an obvious shift from Nemesis and Beneather and accusing me of things that are simply not true by people that are guilty of the inactivity I've been accused of is not constructive? My god man open your eyes.
Ok. First of all, you seem to be relatively inactive through the entire game so far.
I have posts (not necessarily every day on this thread, but on TL in general) every freaking day. Usually multiple times per day as well.
Both of us haven't been posting much in this thread. However, there are some pretty obvious clues pointing to you, and you've put a FoS on me?
Dude, seriously?
I'm done with arguing this one.....
Defending yourself is one thing - coming up with a better alternative for the town is another.....
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Ok, truth be told, I'm a Packer's fan. That may have some small influence on my choice of player to lynch tonight.
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And the new nickname that Jackal seems to think i should have is not helping his case either.
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It's raising red flags to me as well.....
Options are Nemesis and Jackal atm, because of the clues. Beneather is a bodyguard, so we really shouldn't be lynching him yet, regardless of his role.....
Unless I've missed something.....
Why not lynch one now, and get the other tomorrow?
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Wow, bunch of posting while I was typing.....
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The clues point at both.....
I don't see a downside to lynching him. The mafia won't hit him if he's blue, SK won't hit him if he's blue, so his power is now pretty useless to us even if he is blue (granted, we could be lynching someone else instead though, which is a small downside)..... If he's green, well, we made a bad lynch, but the clues did point in his direction. If he's red or a SK, we've done a good job.
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Make up your mind, woman.....
First you think i need to post more, and then when I do, you don't like it.....
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PS - if you can't tell, there's a bit of sarcasm and dry humor in my post. Unfortunately, it doesn't come across as well as it would in a face-to-face conversation - there's only so much that text can convey.....
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On January 31 2011 13:10 Coagulation wrote:
I think we should go back to putting pressure on nemesis.
When nemesis was on the block. I remember alot of people scrambling to incriminate other people.
k
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The thing is - if its wrong, then we're down 1 bodyguard..... I think the best move is to leave him be, just in case.....
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Ya, I don't like the idea of even killing the bodyguards, even if they end up being a SK or red..... At least, not yet anyways.
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On February 01 2011 04:12 Kavdragon wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2011 14:12 Impervious wrote:
Make up your mind, woman.....
First you think i need to post more, and then when I do, you don't like it..... Haha, yes. That's exactly how it's supposed to go: Pressure the Mafia into posting more, analyze posting, convict, then lynch. Thank you for playing the game! So far I've passed the first stage, and I'm working on the analysis. We'll see if that leads to Conviction, or Vindication.
You forgot the little face..... At least quote me properly.....
My analysis of you is "woman".
You jump to conclusions, don't read half of what I say, and even then, don't comprehend it properly.....
Now, onto your methodology:
If I had something to hide, why would I take the bite? It only gives you more information to base an unfounded assumption off of.....
Of course, then you could claim that I'm trying to cover my tracks by appearing to take the bite?
And then we're in a WIFOM situation.....
While the clues are nice, and analyzing everyone's posting history with such extreme scrutiny is an impressive accomplishment, looking at the logic behind what people do (not say, do) is also important. We're really, really early in the game so far, so there's not much to go by yet.
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On February 01 2011 06:03 CubEdIn wrote:
Hello everyone.
Sorry for not contributing today, but it was hell. I had two exams in the morning, then I had to work for 8 hours.
I'm not even gonna bother reading through everything, but I skimmed through, and I looked a the voting thread.
First of all, town sucks.
Not because there's no analysis going on, not because people aren't active, not because of lack of information, but because everyone is being erratic. There's no way in hell we'll be able to point out mafias if we keep behaving like this.
We can't have 3 people with similar number of votes each night, it doesn't help.
Here's what I think:
a) Lynching Beneather is ok, as long as you guys do it for more than just clues. I didn't see any tangible proof in what he posted so far. Yes, master chief sounds like chef, and there's the dog reference, but if you want to push for him, then also make a case with posts and possible scummy moves, don't go all-out on clues and if you find out he's town then say "oh well, the clues kinda-sorta pointed at him".
It kinda makes sense that he is red because if GM isn't lying, mafia hit him, so they might try to open up space to kill mayor. But it is also possible that GM is lying and they want to get Beneather lynched in order to open up a door to Kav.
b) Lynching Nemesis is not ok. I'm gonna say this for the 4th time. Last night he almost got lynched. He was almost sure he'd be lynched, he posted PRO-TOWN. Mafia doesn't do that, at least not with that much subtlety. He just accepted his faith and pointed fingers people we were well under the radar, there's no decent reason a mafia would ever do that. Also, part from me, not many are struggling to defend him, don't you think mafia would try to do that?
If you're lynching based on him being a probable SK, then go for it, but he's not red, goddamn it.
c) Lynching Jackal is kinda odd, I don't feel good about him but it's probably who I'll vote for (i'm not even considering anyone other than these two). The biggest issue is that it all started from nothing, and it snowballed from there. So there's really not much pointing at him.
I would say that until we lynch a red, we won't have any real evidence of who is who, so we might as well just RnG the lynches. It's not like people aren't voting for 5+ players each night.
Kav: How would you feel about lynching Beneather?
I'm sorry if you already answered this, too tired to check in detail.
Please also consider the (albeit unlikely) possibility that GM is red.
If we're wrong about Beneather - we've taken away one of the things preventing our mayor from biting the dust..... If we're right - we could have saved that kill until later..... It's not like he's the only mafia in the game, after all..... I think lynching him is a bad idea right now, for that sole reason.
There's some somewhat convincing arguments against Jackal and against Nemesis, as well as some mediocre arguments against others (I have a feeling that some people are going to come after me eventually as well, but it's not unexpected when the clues are this vague). Unfortunately, we've gotta vote for someone in this setup, and if they are the best candidates at this moment, we'd be idiots for not giving it a shot now.
I realize that the mafia will try to snowball shit like this. But if the mafia keep trying to snowball things, we'll catch a slipup eventually. There's no way they'll be able to point fingers at the majority of the town before we can catch some kind of specific pattern going on. As long as we're careful to watch for it well enough.
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If you want to switch, lets do it. I'll switch.
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K, i'll be able to switch last-minute if need be.
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EPT
