On February 06 2011 14:59 Kavdragon wrote:Dear Impervious: v2.0 IN TWO PARTS! + Show Spoiler [Clues! Good ones, I think!] +I haven't had much time these past few day because of school, but I managed to look back over the clues from the past days. I've been looking at the all wrong, and nothing has seemed to work out very well, but after reviewing some of the stuff in the other clue game LSB ran, I think I have a better idea of how they work. Well, I’m glad you’ve got an idea about how the clues work….. So far, nobody seems to be on the right track…..On January 27 2011 11:01 Node wrote:
The noises inside are a mystery. The scampering in the bush, a deer? That blood-curdling scream, nothing an animal could make.
For real cries
And there in the clearing, in the moonlight, Meapak_Ziph runs at full speed, jumping over roots, snapping aside branches. And close behind him a black shape, only a blur in the darkness, gaining, about to grab, only a hand-length away...
And then the flash of steel from real guns
Meapak_Ziph falls with a grunt to the ground, his face contorts in surprise, horror, and pain, and then... silence. Everything is still but for the fountain of black blood sprouting from his body.
The shadow is gone. Meapak_Ziph dies alone. It has already been pointed out that this sounds like a Zergling. Within SC2 books, Zerglings are often described as being the size of "deer", so that makes sense. A scream no animal can make? Fits. All the descriptions seems to work well. Cool. Could say the same about a Hydralisk as well….. However, you seem pretty tunnnel-visioned towards me right now…..On February 02 2011 11:25 LSB wrote:
I made my way into the caves, and saw all that I needed to see. On the edge of the light, ilovejonn’s body sprawled on the floor. A beast hunched over him, an alien form that I had never seen before.
“I’m sorry. I do this for the greater good,” it growled, and then the ground cracked open under it, and it disappeared. Further evidence of a zerg burrowing. More evidence that it's an alien. Pretty sure it's a zergling at this point. Now, what could the zergling refer to? No one who is alive has any reference to zerglings, except for maybe Impervious's post icon, but icons can change as the game goes on. Heck, even mine has changed this game. His will change as soon as he hits.... Oh wait. Huh. That's strange. Impervious' posting icon seems to have been permanently set to a zergling. Ok, I really can‘t refute this one….. Yes, that section of the post can be interpreted as a zergling. At the same time, that could not even be the clue in the post…..
Of course, you won‘t really find out until you end up lynching me, right? The town can really afford a couple of bad lynches, right?Well, I've never been one to lynch off of clues, so let's take a look at your posting! On January 27 2011 09:49 Impervious wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2011 09:35 Kavdragon wrote:
Bum: I don't want to get totally sidetracked onto JUST analyzing you, but here are a few responses to your defense.
I disagree with your statement that a good mafia player being mayor is better than a bad townie. Sure you might be able to catch a good player, but a bad townie wouldn't deliberately mislead the town. We would still get information, and the mafia wouldn't. That's pretty obvious to me.
You argue that mafia couldn't pass up a role like mayor. You yourself didn't realize how powerful it was till late in the game.
At the time you brought this up, there were only two candidates. If one was scum, and one wasn't, why would you not analyze them, and vote for the one you thought was town? Why don't you analyze us now?
The fact that you voted for me, before switching to RoL shows clearly that you didn't have any opinion about which of us looked more town. That's EXACTLY the type of mindset mafia are in. They know who is, and is not a mafia, so they don't need to form opinions about how scummy people are, or are not.
Also, that last statement was not directed at you specifically, it was a possibility of general mafia play this game.
Thing is, if you're mafia, then you'd also know who else is mafia, and could pick someone who seems to be playing a little wierd, single them out, and lead a lynch. With this game's setup, since it's impossible for us to directly know if it was a mafia that was killed or not, or if the info from the census ability is actually legit, trying to single a non-mafia out for an obvious lynch right now is exactly what a mafia mayor would try to do. And a mafia candidate would be able to get more votes, on average, because they could get votes from other mafia players to secure themselves in the position. Tbh, I say we start lynching ppl who voted for Kavdragon, for that reason. I mean, it's technically possible that RoL is a mafia, and a bunch of people who voted for him were mafia (myself included, obviously), but, statistically speaking, if a candidate was a mafia, they'd be the one to win the election more often. At least, if the mafia actually played well. And, if neither were mafia, then it'd be purely random anyways (obviously, we'll try to look at people who seem more suspicious as primary targets, to increase our chances), and for the first couple of days, wouldn't be a bad move. At least until we can get some better information. Same deal if both were mafia (highly unlikely, but possible). Since I'm worried about our mayor being a mafia atm, I'd rather hear some other people's ideas as to what we should be doing. This was a defense of Bum, and a suggestion of several scummy ideas: lynching people who voted for me, Random lynching for the first few days... In general, a display of poor logic that benefits Bum There was no way of me knowing whether you were mafia or not….. Looking at the worst case scenario of you being a mafia, then lynching your supporters would have been an excellent move….. In the likely, and best case scenarios, it would be purely random anyways. Also, at the time, we had no idea what the clues were, and not enough posts to get any solid analysis on people, so lynches would have been pretty random anyways, with it being far more likely that we’d hit a townie, especially since the mafia would try to prevent their own from being targeted.
Of course, you don’t like that logic, do you? Especially not if you have me in your sights…..On January 27 2011 10:16 Impervious wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2011 10:00 bumatlarge wrote:On January 27 2011 09:49 Impervious wrote:On January 27 2011 09:35 Kavdragon wrote:
Bum: I don't want to get totally sidetracked onto JUST analyzing you, but here are a few responses to your defense.
I disagree with your statement that a good mafia player being mayor is better than a bad townie. Sure you might be able to catch a good player, but a bad townie wouldn't deliberately mislead the town. We would still get information, and the mafia wouldn't. That's pretty obvious to me.
You argue that mafia couldn't pass up a role like mayor. You yourself didn't realize how powerful it was till late in the game.
At the time you brought this up, there were only two candidates. If one was scum, and one wasn't, why would you not analyze them, and vote for the one you thought was town? Why don't you analyze us now?
The fact that you voted for me, before switching to RoL shows clearly that you didn't have any opinion about which of us looked more town. That's EXACTLY the type of mindset mafia are in. They know who is, and is not a mafia, so they don't need to form opinions about how scummy people are, or are not.
Also, that last statement was not directed at you specifically, it was a possibility of general mafia play this game.
Thing is, if you're mafia, then you'd also know who else is mafia, and could pick someone who seems to be playing a little wierd, single them out, and lead a lynch. With this game's setup, since it's impossible for us to directly know if it was a mafia that was killed or not, or if the info from the census ability is actually legit, trying to single a non-mafia out for an obvious lynch right now is exactly what a mafia mayor would try to do. And a mafia candidate would be able to get more votes, on average, because they could get votes from other mafia players to secure themselves in the position. Tbh, I say we start lynching ppl who voted for Kavdragon, for that reason. I mean, it's technically possible that RoL is a mafia, and a bunch of people who voted for him were mafia (myself included, obviously), but, statistically speaking, if a candidate was a mafia, they'd be the one to win the election more often. At least, if the mafia actually played well. And, if neither were mafia, then it'd be purely random anyways (obviously, we'll try to look at people who seem more suspicious as primary targets, to increase our chances), and for the first couple of days, wouldn't be a bad move. At least until we can get some better information. Same deal if both were mafia (highly unlikely, but possible). Since I'm worried about our mayor being a mafia atm, I'd rather hear some other people's ideas as to what we should be doing. But he is right, during that period of time of the RNG debacle, I didn't read into either of them, which is probably the scummiest thing I did. We shouldn't be lynching based on pure information of who did what, but mostly of who is saying what, and how they correspond to clues. I have a bad habit of relying on information over analysis and I suggest you shake that now, especially in this set-up. Kav is saying, we can't just say one of them is mafia without analysis, which I agree with. If you want to judge Kav or RoL, you should take at least as much consideration into what you analyze about them then what you get from information that inevitably leads to WIFOM at this stage. Look at it this way - I'll assume there's 4 mafia (possibly more, but this is a very conservative estimate). Without the mafia votes, it should break even, roughly (assuming both are going to get 50% of the votes). Kavdragon got 18 votes, RoL got 11. If Kavdragon is mafia, and had the support of all 3 other mafia members, that would mean that the town voted 15:11 in favor of Kavdragon. A little lopsided, but still close. He recieved a little under 60% of the votes, which is definitely reasonable, because both players had a strong platform. If RoL is mafia, and had support from the other 3 members, then the votes would have been 18:8. That's around 70% voting for Kavdragon. Much further off. If there are more mafia players, it would look closer to a 50/50 split for Kavdragon if he was mafia, yet look worse for RoL if he was mafia. At the moment, we don't have much to go by. One thing we do have is who voted for who (not everyone has been talkative, and it seems that it's backfired on the people who have). I do agree that we don't have enough to go by for a solid case aganst any one player, including our mayor and runner-up, based on what they've said so far in the game. Which is why I think that looking at it from a statistical point of view may be our best option at the moment. Support of the whole push for looking statistics, something that was spearheaded by Bum Just because I did something that a mafia player did suddenly means I’m a mafia player?
Look at the voting history, I’m sure you’ll see more than a few confirmed townies who voted with at least one mafia player….. Clearly they must all be suspicious to you as well…..
Piss-poor argument you’ve got here…..
Plus, you seem to not like statistical analysis at all. I’m more of a fan of numbers (you can check that in the previous mafia game I played if you don’t believe me, plus, I’m surrounded with numbers all the time, thanks to my path in uni).
Two different views on how to play the game early on. Note, however, that I never discounted your style of play - I simply gave a logical alternative for points in the game where we did not have enough information to give any proper analysis to suit your play style.
Suddenly I’m mafia?
…..On January 30 2011 12:18 Impervious wrote:Frankly, if you've ever read through that, you'd find that it's actually more fucked up as the connection you're trying to make here is..... I definitely think there's something up with Jackal58 though. "Steel", "Black", and relatively inactive which may indicate that he was the one that the clues are about? The first of many posts supporting Jackal's "Steel" clue, something that I believe was part of a concerted (and quite successful) effort by the mafia to help the town look at the clues the totally wrong way. It's not word matching game, it's clue game. I'm not entirely sure why it took me this long to figure that out, but it's pretty obvious now. At this point, I’m starting to feel like most of your points against me are straw-men arguments…..
Many people fucked up on these clues….. And you’re trying to single me out for it? I didn‘t push the clues as hard as a fucking confirmed townie did…..On January 27 2011 13:17 Impervious wrote:
(My first "Dear Impervious" letter)
tbh, I'm kinda glad you called me out here. Hopefully it can get some discussion going. We need more than we've got..... Generate more discussion, Eh? So that would explain why you disappear for the next FIVE pages, post three one liners, then disappear for another TWELVE PAGES? Lol, fail scum. (But really, Fail me for not noticing that earlier) Yes, you fail at analyzing me. I get it already.On January 31 2011 14:12 Impervious wrote:Make up your mind, woman..... First you think i need to post more, and then when I do, you don't like it.....  On January 31 2011 14:14 Impervious wrote:
PS - if you can't tell, there's a bit of sarcasm and dry humor in my post. Unfortunately, it doesn't come across as well as it would in a face-to-face conversation - there's only so much that text can convey..... This came across as very odd to me at the time, but I never really thought much about. Why would someone feel the need to make is so clear that he was being sarcastic? It comes off seeming like something that a very nervous person would do. Why would a townie be nervous because of a light FoS from me? Unless he wasn't a townie, and i was dead on the money with what I was saying... Simple - I re-read my post, and decided that it could easily be misinterpreted. So I added a clarification.
Which ended up getting misinterpreted….. FmlOn February 01 2011 05:22 Impervious wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2011 04:12 Kavdragon wrote:On January 31 2011 14:12 Impervious wrote:
Make up your mind, woman.....
First you think i need to post more, and then when I do, you don't like it..... Haha, yes. That's exactly how it's supposed to go: Pressure the Mafia into posting more, analyze posting, convict, then lynch. Thank you for playing the game! So far I've passed the first stage, and I'm working on the analysis. We'll see if that leads to Conviction, or Vindication. If I had something to hide, why would I take the bite? It only gives you more information to base an unfounded assumption off of..... Of course, then you could claim that I'm trying to cover my tracks by appearing to take the bite? And then we're in a WIFOM situation..... While the clues are nice, and analyzing everyone's posting history with such extreme scrutiny is an impressive accomplishment, looking at the logic behind what people do (not say, do) is also important. We're really, really early in the game so far, so there's not much to go by yet. Wait. Remember when I posted my first analysis of you? And you disappear for like, 17 pages? Huh. You bring up very good points for me, friend. Duh? Cause I’m a fucking townie trying to help?On February 02 2011 14:33 Impervious wrote:
Think about it - look at how people have been voting, look at how the clues have been leading us in the wrong direction.....
Does it really make any sense that we haven't had a single fucking Mafia kill yet?
There's something fishy about vig and SK hits not hitting a mafia at all (especially since any decent SK would be thinking that the mafia is winning, and therefore try to kill scum instead, and the clue last night really signals that a vig made a hit).
The only way that could make any sense (without some extreme luck by the mafia) was if the mayor was lying to us. And if he was, it would be very, very easy to turn us against the wrong people..... Impervious has FoS'd two people in particular that I remember: Jackal, and Me. Mostly just trying to discredit me/make me out to be mafia. ANY analysis of my posting at that point would have shown me to be town, or SK. Only Mafia would have had the motivation for turning public opinion against the mayor, more importantly the census, at that point was Mafia. Knock Knock!
Hello? Is there some grey matter between your ears or not?
Of course I was suspicious of you….. Mafia definitely want your position, and you won by a massive margin, suggesting that there was some kind of ouside influence (cough* mafia cough*). And I was looking for info to get a confirmation either way. We’ve got that confirmation…..
As for Jackal - I’m still conflicted. You remember that clue about the hiding creature? Do you know what a Jackal is? Google it….. As much as your “clue analysis” fits me, it also fits other people as well…..I remember you saying this earlier, in response to my first analysis: On January 27 2011 13:17 Impervious wrote:Show nested quote +Look, Analysis trumps statistics every time. If this game could be won with stats, it would be played with a calculator in math club. It's not. It's an analysis game. Agreed. But statistics can be used as a powerful analysis tool, and discounting one method of analysis is a foolish thing to do. So whatever happened to that other method of analysis? You know, the real kind? Cause you're sure not doing any of it... I could keep going with the rest of his posts, but I'm tired, and already convinced. If you aren't I'll continue, but I think between the clues, and the posts, this should be the obvious lynch for today. It‘d be better if you just stopped…… It‘s been pretty terrible so far…..
On February 07 2011 02:22 Kavdragon wrote:Right, the Mason circle has pointed out how wrong I am in trying to push for impervious's lynch over LD's today. A public "point taken" I'll change my vote back to Lunar. Impervious: Would you mind replying to my points? Or are you afraid that I'll just take your counter arguments and show everyone how scummy you are like I did with Bumatlarge's responses? Still you gave me a little bit to work with... Show nested quote +On February 07 2011 00:34 Impervious wrote:On February 06 2011 14:59 Kavdragon wrote:Dear Impervious: v2.0 A lot of interesting points, but, overall, a bunch of bullshit. You conveniently forget about stuff like this: Yes, I've mentioned this before. I don't go around showing all the good things that people do. Scum look good until they slip up. You point out the slip-ups, not the good posting/votingFantastic idea. Let's single out everyone who's ever voted for a townie then, since that's clearly a sign of someone who's a mafia player.....On February 04 2011 06:10 Impervious wrote:
Ok. So, I think we've established that LD is a SK.
What to do about it now though?
If we could use him as a KP tonight, to get rid of a suspected mafia, and lynch another suspected mafia tonight, we could figure out what we do with LD tomorrow (possibly lynch him tomorrow if no bigger targets for tomorrow night show up). If we lynch him tonight, yea, the game goes on longer, but the mafia still has a pretty big advantage.
It's in his best interest to play along as long as possible, because he'll live as long as possible. If he steps out of line, we can get rid of him the next day. As a bonus, we may even knock the KP of the mafia down in the process.
That is, however, assuming that we have 2 good targets for tonight. If not, it's more worthwhile to lynch LD right now.
One thing I'm worried about is if we actually have 2 SK, and the mafia only has 1KP.....
So, do we have 2 good targets for tonight, other than LD? If so, we really should think about lynching one of them instead, rather than get on this giant bandwagon that everyone seems to be on. And we ended up doing exactly this, allowing us to get 2 freaking mafia members overnight. I'd be a terrible mafia player if I was suggesting things like this..... Not to mention I was one of the first to switch my votes to a mafia member..... Yes, this is called busing. It's laughable that you try to take credit in their lynch, when they were both 80% scum in the eyes of the town right then. Isn't it funny that Bumatlarge decides that he's going to die RIGHT after you post that? Almost like you were busing him...I'm not taking credit for their lynch - your analysis and the actions by LD definitely did that. However, would you guys have considered somethign which clearly helped the town out a ton without me bringing it up?On February 01 2011 06:19 Impervious wrote:
If we're wrong about Beneather - we've taken away one of the things preventing our mayor from biting the dust..... If we're right - we could have saved that kill until later..... It's not like he's the only mafia in the game, after all..... I think lynching him is a bad idea right now, for that sole reason.
There's some somewhat convincing arguments against Jackal and against Nemesis, as well as some mediocre arguments against others (I have a feeling that some people are going to come after me eventually as well, but it's not unexpected when the clues are this vague). Unfortunately, we've gotta vote for someone in this setup, and if they are the best candidates at this moment, we'd be idiots for not giving it a shot now.
I realize that the mafia will try to snowball shit like this. But if the mafia keep trying to snowball things, we'll catch a slipup eventually. There's no way they'll be able to point fingers at the majority of the town before we can catch some kind of specific pattern going on. As long as we're careful to watch for it well enough. I already saw the exact "clue" you saw in me by that point..... And I pointed out some decent logic as to why we shouldn't lynch Beneather (in case we were wrong). As soon as it was confirmed that he was a mafia, and we weren't gonna lynch LD, I was one of the first to switch to voting for him..... I was playing very smart for a mafia, right? ..... Really? You're pointing the fact that you were mafia, and voted against a confirmed scum? And that would be bad mafia play? No! That's exactly what mafia would do. When there's no chance of saving a scum buddy, you are the first person to vote for themSo, playing like a good townie, trying to make sure that the mafia don't kill the mayor quickly, is also a move that a scum would make?Impervious has FoS'd two people in particular that I remember: Jackal, and Me. Mostly just trying to discredit me/make me out to be mafia. ANY analysis of my posting at that point would have shown me to be town, or SK. Only Mafia would have had the motivation for turning public opinion against the mayor, more importantly the census, at that point was Mafia. Yes. The clues definitely looked like they pointed to Jackal..... That clue was brought up by Coagulation: Yes, I'm not saying that you made up the clue, but you pushed it. That's what mafia like to do, right? Snowball stuff like that?Except I'm not the only townie who actually tried to push the clue, and I'm one who bailed when I realized how much of a snowball it had generated, which signalled to me that there was something wrong.....On January 30 2011 11:24 Coagulation wrote:the only clue i could find He looked up and saw a masked man with a blood-spattered black apron tied around his waist. The man masterfully handled his instruments, hands moving at a blur, flashes of steel rising and falling, leaving perfectly sized morsels behind. He lifted a finger to his mouth and sucked. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=Jackal58Steeler picture in profile So are you suggesting that it's gotta be me and Coag (nemesis also played a part iirc, and he was already confirmed to be a non-red) as the last 2 mafia? Cause I wasn't the only person who thought it was a decent connection..... And I voted for Coag earlier on..... Really, if you think you're so good at analysis, how come you really fucked it up here? I was not one of the people who started the bandwagon..... Plus, I didn't stay on Jackal - a "better" option came up (who ended up being a greenie, unfortunately). lol, Coag is Coag Nemesis was the other lynch candidate. Of course they are going to push those clues. Also, Coag is dead, as you very well know.I actually forgot about that for a bit.....It's not to say that I'm not still suspicious of Jackal, but, recently, there's been better options to vote for. Right now, it's LD so we can make the game go on as long as possible. Agreed. I'll push for you tomorrow.kk, keep the tunnel-vision going then.Also, about the RNG mayor - any mafia would want to snag your position..... The rest would be vying for a spot as a bodyguard..... Of course I think it's a better idea to get someone randomly for the position (assuming the mafia try for the position harder than the average townie, since they want the position more, they're more likely to get it). From a statistical point of view, we're less fucked. And you freaking picked a mafia as bodyguard yourself..... It doesn't exactly help your case there..... So, another point about the scummy RNG mayor? It's logic is "Scum would own if they had this, so chances are they will try to get it." What about the rest of the town? You know the other 21 people that should realize this and say "If scum got the mayor, we'd be screwed if they got it. Better try for it. Personally, think that the reason that this keeps coming up is because the scum didn't realize that they should run for mayor until it was too late, and they wish they had. So they are taking the consolation prize of being able to FoS people who ran/distract the town.Of course everyone should try for that mayor spot. If there were several candidates, it would have been easier for the mafia to put one of their own into power..... Of course, that logic seems to fly right over your head.....Of course I don't think you're a mafia anymore. You ended up snagging us 2 red kills. Sick job. But it'd be a waste of a lynch on me..... But, of course, you won't figure that out till we win, or you end up lynching me anyways..... Meh, I dont' really feel like analyzing more of this BS right now..... I'd like to see you start.I'd like to see you write something that isn't BS
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EPT
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